Predicting the timing of water main failure using artificial neural networks

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Volumn 140, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 425-434

  Harvey, Richard ^a   McBean, Edward A ^a   Gharabaghi, Bahram ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH   (Canada)

Author keywords

Artificial neural network; Asset rehabilitation; Data mining; Infrastructure; Pipe failure; Prediction; Water main

Indexed keywords

CATHODIC PROTECTION; CEMENTS; DATA MINING; FAILURE ANALYSIS; FORECASTING; MORTAR; WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS;

CEMENT MORTAR LININGS; CORRELATION COEFFICIENT; DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS; EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT; INFRASTRUCTURE; PIPE FAILURES; PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE; WATER MAINS;

NEURAL NETWORKS;

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; DATA MINING; DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM; FAILURE ANALYSIS; PIPELINE; PREDICTION; WATER SUPPLY;

CANADA; ONTARIO [CANADA]; SCARBOROUGH [ONTARIO];

EID: 84896279374     PISSN: 07339496     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000354     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Ahn, J. C., Lee, S. W., Lee, G. S., and Koo, J. Y. (2005). "Predicting water pipe breaks using neural network." J. Water Sci. Technol. Water Supply, 5(3-4), 159-172.
2. Al-Barqawi, H., and Zayed, T. (2008). "Infrastructure management: integrated AHP/ANN model to evaluate municipal watermains' performance." J. Infrastruct. Syst., 10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2008)14: 4(305), 305-318.
3. Andreou, S., Marks, D., and Clark, R. (1987a). "A new methodology for modeling break failure patterns in deteriorating water distribution systems: Theory." Adv. Water Resour., 10(1), 2-10.
4. Andreou, S., Marks, D., and Clark, R. (1987b). "A new methodology for modeling break failure patterns in deteriorating water distribution systems: Applications." Adv. Water Resour., 10(1), 11-20.
5. Asnaashari, A., McBean, E., Gharabaghi, B., and Tutt, A. (2013). "Forecasting watermain failure using artificial neural network modeling." Can. Water Res. J., 38(1), 24-33.
6. Babovic, V., and Drecourt, J. (2000). "Data mining approach to pipe burst risk assessment." Proc., Water Network Modeling for Optimal Design and Management, CWS, Exeter, U.K.
7. Blair, G., Murray, R., Revie, M., and Walls, L. (2011). "Exploring the influence of temperature on the frequency of burst pipes in the Scottish Water Network." Proc., Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symp. 2011, U.K.
8. Boxall, J., O'Hagan, A., Pooladsaz, S., Saul, A., and Unwin, D. (2007). "Estimation of burst rates in water distribution mains." Proc. ICE Water Manage., 160(2), 73-82.
9. Brémond, B. (1997). "Statistical modeling as help in network renewal decision." European Commission on Co-operation in Science and technology (COST), Committee C3-diagnostics of urban infrastructure, Paris, France.
10. Chambers, G. (1994). "Reducing water utility costs in Winnipeg." Proc., 46th Annual Conf., Western Canada Water and Wastewater Association, Winnipeg, Canada, 1-12.
11. Christodoulou, S. (2011). "Water network assessment and reliability analysis by use of survival analysis." Water Resour. Manage., 25(4), 1229-1238.
12. Christodoulou, S., Charalambous, B., and Adamou, A. (2007). "Managing the 'repair or replace' dilemma on water leakages." Proc., Int. Water Association's 3rd Specialist Conf. on Water Loss Reductions (Water Loss 2007), Bucharest, Romania.
13. City of Toronto. (2012). "Watermains and watermain breaks." Water supply: Fact sheets, http://www.toronto.ca/water/supply/system/ watermains.htm (Jun. 10, 2012).
14. Clark, R. M., Stafford, C. L., and Goodrich, J. A. (1982). "Water distribution systems: A spatial and cost evaluation." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. Div., 108(WR3), 243-256.
15. Eisenbeis, P. (1994). "Modelisation statistique de la prevision des defaillances sur les conduites d'eau potable." Serie Equipements pour l'eau et l'environnement No. 17, Etudes du CEMAGREF (in French).
16. El-Din, A., and Smith, D. (2002). "A neural network model to predict wastewater inflow incorporating rainfall events." Water Res., 36(5), 1115-1126.
17. Fares, H., and Zayed, T. (2010). "Hierarchical fuzzy expert system for risk of failure." J. Pipeline Syst. Eng. Pract., 10.1061/(ASCE)PS.1949-1204 .0000037, 53-62.
18. Goulter, I. C., and Kazemi, A. (1988). "Spatial and temporal groupings of watermain pipe breakage inWinnipeg." Can. J. Civ. Eng., 15(1), 91-97.
19. Gustafson, J., and Clancy, D. (1999). "Modeling the occurrence of breaks in cast-iron water mains using methods of survival analysis." Proc., AWWA Annual Conf., American Water Works Association (AWWA), Denver, CO.
20. Habibian, A. (1994). "Effect of temperature changes on water-main break." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1994)120:2(312), 312-321.
21. Hinton, G. E. (1992). "How neural networks learn from experience." Sci. Am., 267(3), 145-151.
22. Ho, C.-I., Lin, M.-D., and Lo, S.-L. (2010). "Use of GIS-based hybrid artificial neural network to prioritize the order of pipe replacement in a water distribution network." J. Environ. Manage. Assess., 166(1-4), 177-189.
23. Jafar, R., Shahrour, I., and Juran, I. (2010). "Application of artificial neural networks (ANN) to model the failure of water mains." Math. Comput. Model., 51(9-10), 1170-1180.
24. Kettler, A., and Goulter, I. (1985). "An analysis of pipe breakage in urban water distribution networks." Can. J. Civ. Eng., 12(2), 286-293.
25. Kim, K., Huang, S., Akagawa, S., and Kanie, S. (2005). "Field observation of pipe strain caused by soil pressure development in frost bulb." Proc., 40th Symp. on Rock Mechanics (CD-ROM), Anchorage, AK.
26. Kleiner, Y., McDonald, S., Rajani, B., Kleiner, Y., and Mcdonald, S. (2003). "Cathodic protection of water mains in Ottawa: analysis and planning." Corrosion control for enhanced reliability and safety, 1-14.
27. Kleiner, Y., and Rajani, B. (2010). "I-WARP: Individual water main renewal planner." Drink. Water Eng. Sci., 3(1), 71-77.
28. Lackington, D. W., and Large, J. M. (1980). "The integrity of existing distribution systems." J. Inst. Water Eng. Sci., 34(1), 15-32.
29. Mailhot, A., Pelletier, G., Noel, J.-F., and Villeneuve, J. P. (2000). "Modeling the evolution of the structural state of water pipe networks with brief recorded pipe break histories: Methodology and application." Water Resour. Res., 36(10), 3053-3062.
30. Malandain, J., Le Gauffre, P., and Miramond, M. (1999). "Modeling the aging of water infrastructure." Proc., 13th EJSW, Dresden Univ. of Technology.
31. Mitchell, T. M. (1997). Machine learning, McGraw-Hill, Burr Ridge, IL.
32. Newport, R. (1981). "Factors influencing the occurrence of bursts in iron water mains." AQUA, 3, 274-278.
33. Park, S., Jun, H., Kim, B. J., and Im, G. (2008). "Modeling of watermain failure rates using the log-linear ROCOF and the power law process." Water Resour. Manage., 22(9), 1311-1324.
34. Pelletier, G., Mailhot, A., and Villeneuve, J. P. (2003). "Modeling water pipe breaks-Three case studies." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2003)129:2(115), 115-123.
35. Pure Technologies. (2012). "Smart ball for water and wastewater pipelines." Watermain leak detection, http://www.puretechltd.com/products/ smartball/smartball_leak_detection.shtml (Aug. 10, 2012).
36. Rajani, B., and Kleiner, Y. (2003). "Protecting ductile-iron water mains: what protection method works best for what soil condition." J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 95(11), 110-125.
37. Rajani, B., Kleiner, Y., and Sink, J.-E. (2012). "Exploration of the relationship between water main breaks and temperature covariates." Urban Water, 9(2), 67-84.
38. Rostum, J. (2000). "Statistical modeling of pipe failures in water networks." Ph.D. thesis, Norwegian, Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
39. Sacluti, F., Stanley, S. J., and Zhang, Q. (1999). "Use of artificial neural networks to predict water distribution pipe breaks." Proc., 51st Annual Conf. of the Western Canada Water and Wastewater Association, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan.
40. Saegrov, S., et al. (1999). "Rehabilitation of water networks." Urban Water, 1(1), 15-22.
41. Schramuk, J., and Klopper, D. (2005). "A sacrificial anode retrofit program for existing cast-iron distribution water mains." Mater. Perform., 44(5), 20-24.
42. Schuster, C., and McBean, E. (2008). "Impacts of cathodic protection on pipe break probabilities: AToronto case study." Can. J. Civ. Eng., 35(2), 210-216.
43. Shamir, U., and Howard, C. D. (1978). "An analytic approach to scheduling pipe replacement." J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 71(5), 248-258.
44. Skipworth, P., Engelhardt, M., Cashman, A., Savic, D., Saul, A., and Walters, G. (2002). Whole life-costing for water distribution network management, Thomas Telford, London.
45. SPSS Neural Networks 20 [Computer software]. IBM.
46. Sundahl, A. (1997). "Geographical analysis of water main breaks in the city of Malmö, Sweden." J. Water Supply Res. Technol. AQUA, 46(1), 40-47.
47. Tabesh, M., Soltani, J., Farmani, R., and Savic, D. (2009). "Assessing pipe failure rate and mechanical reliability of water distribution networks using data-driven modeling." J. Hydroinf., 11(1), 1-17.
48. Toronto Water. (2011). "2012 recommended operating budget." City finances-budget 2012, http://www1.toronto.ca/static_files/budget/ 2012/pdf/2012_tw_budget_pres.pdf (Jun. 20, 2012).
49. Walski, T. M., and Pelliccia, A. (1982). "Economic analyses of watermain breaks." J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 74(3), 140-147.
50. Wang, Y., Zayed, T., and Moselhi, O. (2009). "Prediction models for annual break rates of water mains." J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 10.1061/ (ASCE)0887-3828(2009)23:1(47), 47-54.