Causes and predictability of the record wet east Australian spring 2010

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 42, Issue 5-6, 2014, Pages 1155-1174

  Hendon, Harry H ^a   Lim, Eun Pa ^a   Arblaster, Julie M ^a   Anderson, David L T ^a  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Australian floods 2010; La Ni a 2010; Southern Annular Mode

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894312097     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1700-5     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. An S-I, Kim JW, Im S-H, Kim B-M, Park J-H (2011) Recent and future sea surface temperature trends in tropical Pacific warm pool and cold tongue regions. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-011-1129-7.
2. Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian winter rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 30(15): 1821. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL017926.
3. Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H (2007a) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112: C1107. doi: 10. 1029/2006JC003798.
4. Ashok K, Nakamura H, Yamagata T (2007b) Impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the southern hemisphere storm track activity during austral winter. J Clim 20(13): 3147-3163. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI4155. 1.
5. Ashok K, Sabin TP, Swapna P, Murtugudde RG (2012) Is a global warming signature emerging in the Tropical Pacific? Geophys Res Lett 39: L02701, 5. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL050232.
6. Cai W, Rensch P, Cowan T, Hendon HH (2011) Teleconnection pathways for ENSO and the IOD and the mechanism for impacts on Australian rainfall. J Clim. doi: 10. 1175/2011JCLI4129. 1.
7. Drosdowsky W, Chambers L (2001) Near-global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall. J Clim 14: 1677-1687.
8. Evans JP, Boyer-Souchet I (2012) Local sea surface temperatures add to extreme precipitation in northeast Australia during La Niña. Geophys Res Lett 39: L10803. doi: 10. 1029/2012GL052014.
9. Fogt RL, Bromwich DH (2006) Decadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the high-latitude South Pacific governed by coupling with the southern annular mode. J Clim 19: 979-997.
10. Fogt RL, Perlwitz J, Monaghan AJ, Bromwich DH, Jones JM, Marshall GJ (2009) Historical SAM variability. Part II: twentieth-century variability and trends from reconstructions, observations, and the IPCC AR4 models. J Clim 22: 5346-5365. doi: 10. 1175/2009JCLI2786. 1.
11. Fogt RL, Bromwich DH, Hines KM (2011) Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection. Clim Dyn 36: 1555-1576.
12. Gallant AJE, Karoly DJ (2009) Atypical influence of the 2007 La Niña on rainfall and temperature in southeastern Australia. Geophys Res Lett 36(L14707). doi: 10. 1029/2009GL039026.
13. Hendon HH (2003) Indonesian rainfall variability: impacts of ENSO and local air-sea interaction. J Clim 16: 1775-1790.
14. Hendon HH, Thompson DWJ, Wheeler MC (2007) Australian rainfall and temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode. J Clim 20: 2452-2467.
15. Hendon HH, Lim E-P, Liu G (2012) The role of air-sea interaction for prediction of Australian summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 25: 1278-1290.
16. Hoerling MP, Kumar A (2003) The perfect ocean for drought. Science 299: 691-694.
17. Hoerling MP, Kumar A, Zhong M (1997) El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J Clim 10: 1769-1786.
18. Hurrell JW, Hack JJ, Shea D, Caron JM, Rosinski J (2008) A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary data set for the community atmosphere model. J Clim 21: 5145-5153. doi: 10. 1175/2008JCLI2292. 1.
19. Jones DA, Wang W, Fawcett R (2009) High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 58: 233-248.
20. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NMC/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77: 437-471.
21. Kang SM, Polvani LM, Fyfe J, Sigmond M (2011) Impact of polar ozone depletion on subtropical precipitation. Science. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1202131.
22. Karoly DJ (1989) Southern Hemisphere circulation features associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. J Clim 2: 1239-1251.
23. L'Heureux ML, Thompson DWJ (2006) Observed relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J Clim 19: 276-287.
24. Lim E-P, Hendon HH, Hudson D, Wang G, Alves O (2009) Dynamical forecasts of inter-El Nino variations of tropical SST and Australian springtime rainfall. Mon Weather Rev 137: 3796-3810.
25. Lim E-P, Hendon HH, Anderson DLT, Charles A, Alves O (2011) Dynamical, statistical-dynamical, and multi-model forecasts of Australian spring season rainfall. Mon Weather Rev 139: 958-975. doi: 10. 1175/2010MWR3399. 1.
26. Lim E-P, Hendon HH, Rashid H (2013) Seasonal predictability of the southern annular mode due to its association with ENSO. J Clim (in press).
27. Marshall GJ (2003) Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. J Clim 16: 4134-4143.
28. McBride JL, Nicholls N (1983) Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 111: 1998-2004.
29. Meyers GA, McIntosh PC, Pigot L, Pook MJ (2007) The years of El Nino, La Nina and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. J Clim 20: 2872-2880.
30. Murphy BF, Timbal B (2008) A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia. Int J Climatol 28: 859-879.
31. Nicholls N (1984a) Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and North Australian sea surface temperature. Extended Abstracts, Conference on Australian Rainfall Variability, 71-73, Arkaroola, 6-8 August 1984, Australian Academy of Science.
32. Nicholls N (1984b) The Southern oscillation and Indonesian seas surface temperature. Mon Weather Rev 112: 424-432.
33. Nicholls N (1989) Sea surface temperature and Australian winter rainfall. J Clim 2: 965-973.
34. Nicholls N (2009) Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958-2007. Clim Dyn 34: 835-845.
35. Nicholls N (2011) What caused the eastern Australia heavy rains and floods of 2010/11? Bull Aust Meteorol Oceanogr Soc 24: 33-34.
36. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110: 699-706.
37. Power S, Haylock M, Colman R, Wang X (2006) The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO and ENSO teleconnections. J Clim 8: 2161-2180.
38. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine airtemperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108: 4407. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002670.
39. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15: 1609-1625.
40. Risbey JS, Pook MJ, McIntosh PC, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2009) On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Mon Weather Rev. doi: 10. 1175/2009MWR2861. 1.
41. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360-363.
42. Shinoda T, Hendon HH, Alexander MA (2004) Surface and subsurface dipole variability in the Indian Ocean and its relation to ENSO. Deep Sea Res I 51: 619-635.
43. Solomon A, Newman M (2012) Reconciling disparate 20th Century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record. Nat Clim Change. doi: 10. 1038/NCLIMATE1591.
44. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability. J Clim 13: 1000-1016.
45. Timbal B, Hendon HH (2011) The role of tropical modes of variability in recent rainfall deficits across the Murray-Darling Basin. Water Resour Res 47: W00G09. doi: 10. 1029/2010WR009834.
46. Trenberth KE (2012) Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change. Clim Change. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-012-0441-5.
47. Wang G, Hendon HH (2007) Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to inter-El Nino variations. J Clim 20: 4211-4226.
48. Weisberg S (1985) Applied linear regression, 2nd edn. Wiley, New York, p 324.
49. Xie P, Arkin PA (1996) Analysis of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J Clim 9: 840-858.
50. Zhao M, Hendon HH (2009) Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 135: 337-352.