Seasonal predictability of the southern annular mode due to its association with ENSO

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 20, 2013, Pages 8037-8054

  Lim, Eun Pa ^a   Hendon, Harry H ^a   Rashid, Harun ^b  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE MODELING; BUREAU OF METEOROLOGIES; DE CORRELATIONS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); SEASONAL FORECASTS; SEASONAL PREDICTION; SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; OCEANOGRAPHY;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ANOMALY; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HINDCASTING; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; WARM POOL;

AUSTRALIA; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (CENTRAL);

EID: 84885344575     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00006.1     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Ashok, K., S. Behera, A. S. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007a: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
2. Ashok, K., H. Nakamura, and T. Yamagata, 2007b: Impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on the Southern Hemisphere stormtrack activity during austral winter. J. Climate, 20, 3147-3163.
3. Ashok, K., C.-Y. Tam, and W.-J. Lee, 2009: ENSO Modoki impact on the Southern Hemisphere storm track activity during extended austral winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12705, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL038847.
4. Barns, E. A., and D. L. Hartmann, 2010: Dynamical feedbacks of the southern annular mode in winter and summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2320-2330.
5. Cai, W., P. V. Rensch, T. Cowan, and H. H. Hendon, 2011: Teleconnection pathways forENSOand the IODand the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall. J. Climate, 24, 3910-3923.
6. Chen, G., J. Lu, and D. M. W. Frierson, 2008: Phase speed spectra and the latitude of surface westerlies: Interannual variability and global warming trend. J. Climate, 21, 5942-5959.
7. Codron, F., 2005: Relation between annular modes and the mean state: Southern Hemisphere summer. J. Climate, 18, 320-330.
8. Colman, R., and Coauthors, 2005: BMRC Atmospheric Model (BAM) version 3.0: Comparison with mean climatology. Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Research Rep. 108, 32 pp. [Available online at http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ pubs/researchreports/researchreports.htm.]
9. Deser, C., A. Philips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527-546.
10. Ding, Q., E. J. Steig, D. S. Battisti, and J. M. Wallace, 2012: Influence of the tropics on the southern annular mode. J. Climate, 25, 6330-6348.
11. Fogt, R. L., D. H. Bromwich, and K. M. Hines, 2011: Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection. Climate Dyn., 36, 1555-1576.
12. Gates, W. L., 1992:AMIP: The AtmosphericModel Intercomparison Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1962-1970.
13. Gerber, E. P., and G. K. Vallis, 2007: Eddy-zonal flow interactions and the persistence of the zonal index. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3296- 3311.
14. Gillett, N. P., T. D. Kell, and P. D. Jones, 2006: Regional climate impacts of the southern annular mode. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23704, doi:10.1029/2006GL027721.
15. Gong, D., and S. Wang, 1999: Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index.Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459-462, doi:10.1029/1999GL900003.
16. Gong, T., S. B. Feldstein, and D. Luo, 2010: The impact of ENSO on wave breaking and southern annular mode events. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2854-2870.
17. Hartmann,D. L., 2007: The atmospheric general circulation and its variability. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85B, 123-143.
18. Hartmann,D. L., and F. Lo, 1998: Wave-driven zonal flow vacillation in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1303-1315.
19. Hendon, H. H., D. W. J. Thompson, and M. C. Wheeler, 2007: Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. J. Climate, 20, 2452-2467.
20. Hendon, H. H., E.-P. Lim, G. Wang, O. Alves, and D. Hudson, 2009: Prospects for predicting two flavours of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19713, doi:10.1029/2009GL040100.
21. Hendon, H. H., E.-P. Lim, J. M. Arblaster, and D. L. T. Anderson, 2013: Causes and predictability of the record wet east Australian spring 2010. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1700-5, in press.
22. Hoerling, M. P., M. A. Kumar, and M. Zhong, 1997: El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate, 10, 1769-1786.
23. Hoskins, B. J., and K. I. Hodges, 2005: A new perspective on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks. J. Climate, 18, 4108-4129.
24. Hudson, D., O. Alves, H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang, 2011: The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST. Climate Dyn., 36, 1155-1171.
25. Hurrell, J.W., J. J.Hack, D. Shea, J. M. Caron, and J. Rosinski, 2008: Anew sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary data set for the Community Atmosphere Model. J. Climate, 21, 5145-5153.
26. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
27. Kao, H.-Y., and J.-Y. Yu, 2009: Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO. J. Climate, 22, 615-632.
28. Karoly, D. J., 1989: Southern Hemisphere circulation features associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. J. Climate, 2, 1239-1252.
29. Karoly, D. J., 1990: The role of transient eddies in low-frequency zonal variations of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. Tellus, 42A, 41-50.
30. Karoly, D. J., P. Hope, and D. Jones, 1996: Decadal variations of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. Int. J. Climatol., 16, 723-738.
31. Kidson, J. W., 1988: Indices of the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind. J. Climate, 1, 183-194.
32. Kidson, J. W., and M. R. Sinclair, 1995: The influence of persistent anomalies on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks. J. Climate, 8, 1938-1950.
33. Kidston, J., D. M. W. Frierson, J. A. Renwick, and G. K. Vallis, 2010: Observations, simulations, and dynamics of jet stream variability and annular modes. J. Climate, 23, 6186-6199.
34. Kim, H.-K., and S. Lee, 2004: The wave-zonalmean flow interaction in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1055-1067.
35. Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2009: Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Science, 325, 77-80.
36. Kug, J.-S., F.-F. Jin, and S.-I. An, 2009: Two types of El Niño events:Cold tongueElNiño andwarmpoolElNiño. J.Climate, 22, 1499-1515.
37. Lee, S., and H.-K. Kim, 2003: The dynamical relationship between subtropical and eddy-driven jets. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1490- 1503.
38. L'Heureux, M. L., and D. W. J. Thompson, 2006: Observed relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J. Climate, 19, 276-287.
39. Lim, E.-P., and I. Simmonds, 2007: Southern Hemisphere winter extratropical cyclone characteristics and vertical organization observed with the ERA-40 data in 1979-2001. J. Climate, 20, 2675-2690.
40. Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin, M. Zhao, G. Wang, D. Hudson, and G. Liu, 2009a: Impact of SST bias correction on prediction of ENSO and Australian winter rainfall. CAWCR Research Letters, No. 3,CAWCR,Melbourne,Victoria, Australia, 22-29.
41. Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, D. Hudson, G. Wang, and O. Alves, 2009b: Dynamical forecast of inter-El Niño variations of tropical SST and Australian spring rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3796-3810.
42. Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin, G. Wang, D. Hudson, M. Zhao, and L. Shi, 2010: Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical Indo- Pacific SST and Australian rainfall with improved ocean initial conditions. CAWCR Tech. Rep. 032, 26 pp.
43. Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, D. L. T. Anderson, and A. Charles, 2011: Dynamical, statistical-dynamical, and multimodel ensemble forecasts of Australian spring season rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 958- 975.
44. Limpasuvan, V., and D. L. Hartmann, 1999: Eddies and the annular modes of climate variability. Geophys. Res.Lett., 26, 3133-3136.
45. Lorenz, D. J., and D. L. Hartmann, 2001: Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3312- 3327.
46. Lu, J., G. Chen, and D. M. W. Frierson, 2008: Response of the zonal mean atmospheric circulation to El Niño versus global warming. J. Climate, 21, 5835-5851.
47. Marshall, A. G., D. Hudson, M. C. Wheeler, H. H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2012: Simulation and prediction of the southern annular mode and its influence on Australian intra-seasonal climate in POAMA. Climate Dyn., 38, 2483-2502.
48. Marshall, G. J., 2003: Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Climate, 16, 4134-4143.
49. Meneghini, B., I. Simmonds, and I. Smith, 2007: Association between Australian rainfall and the southern annular mode. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 109-121.
50. Nakamura, H., and A. Shimpo, 2004: Seasonal variations in the Southern Hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams as revealed in a reanalysis dataset. J. Climate, 17, 1828-1844.
51. Oke, P. R., A. Schiller, D. A. Griffin, and G. B. Brassington, 2005: Ensemble data assimilation for an eddy-resolving oceanmodel of theAustralian region. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3301-3311.
52. Okely, P.,O.Alves,D.Hudson, and Y. Yin, 2011: Towards coupled data assimilation: Coupled covariance structures. CAWCR Research Letters, No. 7, CAWCR, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 4-9.
53. Oort, A. H., and J. J. Yienger, 1996: Observed interannual variability in the Hadley circulation and its connection to ENSO. J. Climate, 9, 2751-2767.
54. Pacanowski, R. C., 1996: MOM2: Documentation, user's guide and referencemanual.GFDL OceanGroup Tech. Rep. 3.2, 328 pp.
55. Rashid, H.A., and I. Simmonds, 2004: Eddy-zonal flow interactions associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode: Results from NCEP-DOE reanalysis and a quasi-linear model. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 873-888.
56. Rashid, H.A., and I. Simmonds, 2005: Southern Hemisphere annular mode variability and the role of optimal nonmodal growth. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1947-1961.
57. Rayner,N.A., D. E. Parker,E.Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
58. Reason, C. J. C., and M. Rouault, 2005: Links between the AntarcticOscillation and winter rainfall over western South Africa. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022419.
59. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
60. Robinson, W. A., 2000: A baroclinic mechanism for the eddy feedback on the zonal index. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 415-422.
61. Roff, G., D. W. J. Thompson, and H. Hendon, 2011: Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extendedrange forecast skill? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05809, doi:10.1029/ 2010GL046515.
62. Saji, N., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999:Adipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360-363.
63. Schiller, A., J. S. Godfrey, P. C. McIntosh, G. Meyers, N. R. Smith, O. Alves, G. Wang, and R. Fiedler, 2002: A new version of the Australian Community Ocean Model for seasonal climate prediction. CSIRO Marine Research Rep. 240, 79 pp.
64. Seager, R., N. Harnik, and Y. Kushnir, 2003: Mechanisms of hemispherically symmetric climate variability. J. Climate, 16, 2960-2978.
65. Sen Gupta, A., and M. H. England, 2007: Coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback in the southern annular mode. J. Climate, 20, 3677-3692.
66. Silvestri, G. E., and C. S. Vera, 2003: Antarctic Oscillation signal on precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2155, doi:10.1029/2003GL018277.
67. Simmonds, I., and K. Keay, 2000: Mean Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behavior in the 40-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. J. Climate, 13, 873-885.
68. Smith, N. R., J. E. Blomley, and G. Meyers, 1991: A univariate statistical interpolation scheme for subsurface thermal analyses in the tropical oceans. Prog. Oceanogr., 28, 219-256.
69. Szeredi, I., and D. Karoly, 1987: The horizontal structure of monthly fluctuations of the Southern Hemisphere troposphere from station data. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 35, 119-129.
70. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate, 13, 1000-1016.
71. Trenberth, K. E., 1979: Interannual variability of the 500-mb zonal flow in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 1515- 1524.
72. Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012.
73. Valke, S., L. Terray, and A. Piacentini, 2000: The OASIS coupled user guide version 2.4. CERFACS Tech. Rep. TR/CMGC/ 00-10, 85 pp.
74. Wang, G., and H. H. Hendon, 2007: Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to inter-El Niño variations. J. Climate, 20, 4211- 4226.
75. Wang, G., D. Hudson, Y. Yin, O. Alves, H. Hendon, S. Langford, G. Liu, and F. Tseitkin, 2011: POAMA-2 SST skill assessment and beyond. CAWCR Research Letters, No. 6, CAWCR, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 40-46.
76. Weng, H., K. Ashok, S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, and T. Yamagata, 2007: Impacts of recent ElNiño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. ClimateDyn., 29, 113-129.
77. Wilks, D., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 592 pp.
78. Yin, Y., O. Alves, and P. Oke, 2011: An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 786-808.
79. Zhou, T., and R. Yu, 2004: Sea-surface temperature induced variability of the southern annular mode in an atmospheric general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24206, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL021473.