Feedbacks between deforestation, climate, and hydrology in the Southwestern Amazon: Implications for the provision of ecosystem services

Landscape Ecology

Volumn 29, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 261-274

  Lima, Letícia S ^a   Coe, Michael T ^b   Soares Filho, Britaldo S ^a   Cuadra, Santiago V ^c   Dias, Lívia C P ^d   Costa, Marcos H ^d   Lima, Leandro S ^a   Rodrigues, Hermann O ^a  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF MINAS GERAIS   (Brazil)

^b WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^c EMBRAPA CERRADOS   (Brazil)

^d FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF VIÇOSA   (Brazil)

Author keywords

DINAMICA EGO; Land change simulation; Landscape dynamics; THMB; Water balance

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894297585     PISSN: 09212973     EISSN: 15729761     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10980-013-9962-1     Document Type: Article

References (93)

1. Anderson-Teixeira KJ, Snyder PK, Twine TE, Cuadra SV, Costa MH, DeLucia EH (2012) Climate-regulation services of natural and agricultural ecoregions of the Americas. Nat Clim Change 2: 177-181.
2. Aragão LEOC, Malhi Y, Roman-Cuesta RM, Saatchi S, Anderson LO, Shimabukuro YE (2007) Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts. Geophys Res Lett 34: L07701.
3. Avissar R, Werth D (2005) Global hydroclimatological teleconnections resulting from tropical deforestation. J Hydrometeorol 6: 134-145.
4. Bonan G (2008) Ecological climatology-concepts and applications. Cambridge University Press, New York.
5. Bowman MS, Soares-Filho BS, Merry FD, Nepstad DC, Rodrigues HO, Almeida OT (2012) Persistence of cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: a spatial analysis of the rationale for beef production. Land Use Policy 29: 558-568.
6. Bradshaw CJA, Sodhi NS, Peh KSH, Brook BW (2007) Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. Glob Change Biol 13: 2379-2395.
7. Brooks TM, Mittermeier RA, Fonseca GAB, Gerlach J, Hoffmann M, Lamoreux JF, Mittermeier CG, Pilgrim JD, Rodrigues ASL (2006) Global biodiversity conservation priorities. Science 313: 58-61.
8. Brown IF, Schroeder W, Setzer A, Maldonado MLR, Pantoja N, Duarte A, Marengo J (2006) Monitoring fires in Southwestern Amazonia rain forests. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 87: 253-264.
9. Butt N, Oliveira PA, Costa MH (2011) Evidence that deforestation affects the onset of the rainy season in Rondonia, Brazil. J Geophys Res 116: D11120.
10. Castello L, McGrath DG, Hess LL, Coe MT, Lefebvre PA, Petry P, Macedo MN, Renó VF, Arantes CC (2013) The vulnerability of Amazon freshwater ecosystems. Conserv Lett 1-13.
11. Coe MT, Costa MH, Botta A, Birkett C (2002) Long-term simulations of discharge and floods in the Amazon Basin. J Geophys Res 107(D20): 1-17.
12. Coe MT, Costa MH, Howard EA (2007) Simulating the surface waters of the Amazon river basin: impacts of new river geomorphic and flow parameterizations. Hydrol Process 22: 2542-2553.
13. Coe MT, Costa MH, Soares-Filho BS (2009) The influence of historical and potential future deforestation on the stream flow of the Amazon river-land surface processes and atmospheric feedbacks. J Hydrol 369: 165-174.
14. Coe MT, Latrubesse EM, Ferreira ME, Amsler ML (2011) The effects of deforestation and climate variability on the streamflow of the Araguaia River, Brazil. Biogeochemistry 105: 1-3. doi: 10. 1007/s10533-011-9582-2.
15. Coe MT, Marthews TR, Costa MH, Galbraith D, Greenglass N, Imbuzeiro HMA, Levine NM, Malhi Y, Moorcroft P, Muza MN, Powell TL, Saleska S, Solorzano LA, Wang J (2013) Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south-southeastern Amazonia. Philos Trans R Soc B 368: 20120155. doi: 10. 1098/rstb. 2012. 0155.
16. 2 concentrations on the climate of Amazonia. J Clim 13: 18-34.
17. Costa MH, Pires GF (2009) Effects of Amazon and Central Brazil deforestation scenarios on the duration of the dry season in the arc of deforestation. Int J Climatol 30: 1970-1979.
18. Costa MH, Oliveira CHC, Andrade G, Bustamante TR, Silva FA, Coe MT (2002) A macroscale hydrological dataset of river flow routing parameters for the Amazon basin. J Geophys Res 107: D20.
19. Costa MH, Botta A, Cardille JA (2003) Effects of large-scale changes in land cover on the discharge of the Tocantins River, Southeastern Amazonia. J Hydrol 283: 206-217.
20. Costa MH, Yanagi SNM, Souza PJOP, Ribeiro A, Rocha EJP (2007) Climate change in Amazonia caused by soybean cropland expansion, as compared to caused by pastureland expansion. Geophys Res Lett 34: L07706.
21. Cuadra SV, Costa MH, Kucharik CJ, Da Rocha HR, Tatsch JD, Inman-Bamber G, Da Rocha RP, Leite CC, Cabral OMR (2012) A biophysical model of sugarcane growth. Bioenergy 4(1): 36-48.
22. D'Almeida C, Vörösmarty CJ, Hurtt GC, Marengo JA, Dingman SL, Keim BD (2007) The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazonia: a review on scale and resolution. Int J Climatol 27: 633-647.
23. Da Rocha RP, Cuadra SV, Reboita MS, Kruger LF, Ambrizzi T, Krusche N (2012) Effects of RegCM3 parameterizations on simulated rainy season over South America. Clim Res 52: 253-265.
24. da Silva RR, Werth D, Avissar R (2008) Regional impacts of future land-cover changes on the Amazon basin wet-season climate. J Clim 21: 1153-1170.
25. Delire C, Levis SL, Foley JA, Coe MT, Vavrus S (2002) Comparison of the climate simulated by the CCM3 coupled to two different land-surface models. Clim Dyn 19: 657-669.
26. Donner SD, Coe MT, Lenders JD, Twine TE, Foley JA (2002) Modeling the impact of hydrological changes on nitrate transport in the Mississippi River Basin from 1955 to 1994. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 16(3): 1043.
27. Eltahir EAB (1996) Role of vegetation in sustaining large-scale atmospheric circulations in the tropics. J Geophys Res 101: 4255-4268.
28. Finer M, Jenkins CN (2012) Proliferation of hydroelectric dams in the Andean Amazon and implications for Andes-Amazon connectivity. PLoS ONE 7(4): e35126.
29. Finer M, Jenkins CN, Pimm SL, Keane B, Ross C (2008) Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples. PLoS ONE 3(8): e2932.
30. Foley JA, Prentice C, Ramankutty N, Levis S, Pollard D, Sitch S, Haxeltine A (1996) An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes, terrestrial carbon balance, and vegetation dynamics. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 10: 603-628.
31. Foley JA, Asner GP, Costa MH, Coe MT, DeFries R, Gibbs HK, Howard EA, Olson S, Patz J, Ramankutty N, Snyder P (2007) Amazonia revealed: forest degradation and loss of ecosystem goods and services in the Amazon basin. Front Ecol Environ 5: 25-32.
32. Forman RTT, Godron M (1986) Landscape ecology. Wiley, New York.
33. Giudice R, Soares-Filho BS, Merry F, Rodrigues HO, Bowman M (2012) Timber concessions in Madre de Dios: are they a good deal? Ecol Econ 77: 158-165.
34. Gloor M, Brienen RJW, Galbraith D, Feldpausch TR, Schöngart J, Guyot JL, Espinoza JC, Lloyd J, Phillips OL (2013) Intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades. Geophys Res Lett 40: 1729-1733.
35. Gordon LJ, Peterson GD, Bennett EM (2008) Agricultural modifications of hydrological flows create ecological surprises. Trends Ecol Evol 23(4): 211-219.
36. Guo Z, Xiao X, Li D (2000) An assessment of ecosystem services: water flow regulation and hydroelectric power production. Ecol Appl 10(3): 925-936.
37. Hahmann AN, Dickinson RE (1997) RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: applications to tropical deforestation. J Clim 10: 1944-1964.
38. Hewitson BC, Crane RG (1996) Climate downscaling: techniques and application. Clim Res 7: 85-95.
39. Imbuzeiro HMA (2010) Parameters estimation of distribution and depth of the root system through the calibration of the micrometeorological models-application to the Amazon rainforest. ScD thesis, Federal University of Viçosa, Brazil.
40. Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1998) The national center for atmospheric research community climate model: CCM3. J Clim 11: 1131-1149.
41. Killeen TJ (2007) A perfect storm in the Amazon wilderness: development and conservation in the context of the initiative for the integration of the regional infrastructure of South America (IIRSA). Adv Appl Biodivers Sci 7: 105.
42. Kirkby CA, Giudice R, Day B, Turner K, Soares-Filho BS, Rodrigues HO, Yu DW (2011) Closing the ecotourism-conservation loop in the Peruvian Amazon. Environ Conserv 38(1): 6-17.
43. Kucharik CJ (2003) Evaluation of a process-based agro-ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) across the U. S. Corn Belt: simulations of the inter-annual variability in maize yield. Earth Interact 7(14): 1-33.
44. Kucharik CJ, Foley JA, Delire C, Fisher VA, Coe MT, Lenters JD, Young-Molling C, Ramankutty N (2000) Testing the performance of a dynamic global ecosystem model: water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 14: 795-825.
45. Latrubesse EM, Amsler ML, De Morais RP, Aquino S (2009) The geomorphologic response of a large pristine alluvial river to tremendous deforestation in the South American tropics: the case of the Araguaia river. Geomorphology 113: 239-252.
46. Laurance WF, Williamson GB (2001) Positive feedbacks among forest fragmentation, drought, and climate change in the Amazon. Conserv Biol 15: 1529-1535.
47. Lehner B, Verdin K, Jarvis A (2008) New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 89: 93-96.
48. Lewis SL, Brando PM, Phillips OL, van der Heijden GMF, Nepstad D (2011) The 2010 Amazon drought. Science 331: 554.
49. Li KY, Coe MT, Ramankutty N, De Jong R (2007) Modeling the hydrological impact of land-use change in West Africa. J Hydrol 337: 258-268.
50. Lima Leticia S, Lima Leandro S, Soares-Filho BS, Coe MT, Ferreira BM, Rodrigues HO (2013) Interfaces gráficas em auxílio à implementação e ao uso de modelos hidrológicos. In: Simpósio Brasileiro de Sensoriamento Remoto, Foz do Iguaçu, RS, Brazil.
51. Malhado ACM, Pires GF, Costa MH (2010) Cerrado conservation is essential to protect the Amazon rainforest. Ambio 39: 580-584.
52. Malhi Y, Roberts JT, Betts RA, Killeen TJ, Li W, Nobre CA (2008) Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319: 169-172.
53. Malhi Y, Aragao LEOC, Galbraith D, Huntingford C, Fisher R, Zelazowski P, Sitch S, McSweeney C, Meir P et al (2009) Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0804619106.
54. Mann CC (2008) Ancient earthmovers of the Amazon. Science 321: 1148-1152.
55. Marengo JA, Nobre CA, Tomasella J, Oyama MD, Oliveira GSD, Oliveira RD, Camargo H, Alves LM, Brown IF (2008) The Drought of Amazonia in 2005. J Clim 21: 495-516.
56. McClain ME, Boyer EW, Dent L, Gergel SE, Grimm NB, Groffman PM, Hart SC, Harvey JW, Johnston CA, Mayorga E, McDowell WH, Pinay G (2003) Biogeochemical hot spots and hot moments at the interface of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Ecosyst 6: 301-312.
57. Meybeck M (1982) Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus transport by world rivers. Am J Sci 282: 401-450.
58. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC.
59. Miller JR, Russell GL, Caliri G (1994) Continental-scale river flow in climate models. J Clim 7: 914-928.
60. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25: 693-712.
61. Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, Brooks TM, Pilgrim JD, Kosntant WR, Fonserca GAB, Kormos C (2003) Wilderness and biodiversity conservation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100: 10309-10313.
62. Nepstad DC, Tohver IM, Ray D, Moutinho P, Cardinot G (2007) Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest. Ecology 88: 2259-2269.
63. Nepstad D, Soares-Filho BS, Merry F, Lima A, Moutinho P, Carter J, Bowman M, Cattaneo A, Rodrigues H, Schwartzman S, McGrath DG, Sticker CM, Lubowski R, Piris-Cabezas P, Rivero S, Alencar A, Almeida O, Stella O (2009) The end of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Science 326: 1350-1351.
64. Nobre CA, Sellers PJ, Shukla J (1991) Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. J Clim 4: 957-988.
65. Nunes F, Soares-Filho BS, Giudice R, Rodrigues H, Bowman M, Silvestrini R, Mendoza E (2012) Environ Conserv 39(2): 132-143.
66. Oliveira LJC, Costa MH, Soares-Filho BS, Coe MT (2013) Large-scale expansion of agriculture in Amazonia may be a no-win scenario. Environ Res Lett 8: 024021.
67. Osborne TM, Lawrence DM, Challinor AJ, Slingo JM, Wheeler TR (2007) Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model. Glob Change Bio 13: 169-183.
68. Perz SG, Brilhante S, Brown F, Caldas M, Ikeda S, Mendoza E, Overdevest C, Reis V, Reyes JF, Rojas D, Schmink M, Souza C, Walker R (2008) Road building, land use and climate change: prospects for environmental governance in the Amazon. Phil Trans R Soc B 363: 1889-1895.
69. Phillips OL, Aragao L, Lewis SL, Fisher JB, Lloyd J, Lopez-Gonzalez G, Malhi Y, Monteagudo A, Peacock J, Quesada CA, van der Heijden G, Almeida S, Amaral I, Arroyo L, Aymard G, Baker TR, Banki O, Blanc L, Bonal D, Brando P, Chave J, de Oliveira ACA, Cardozo ND, Czimczik CI, Feldpausch TR, Freitas MA, Gloor E, Higuchi N, Jimenez E, Lloyd G, Meir P, Mendoza C, Morel A, Neill DA, Nepstad D, Patino S, Penuela MC, Prieto A, Ramirez F, Schwarz M, Silva J, Silveira M, Thomas AS, ter Steege H, Stropp J, Vasquez R, Zelazowski P, Davila EA, Andelman S, Andrade A, Chao KJ, Erwin T, Di Fiore A, Honorio E, Keeling H, Killeen TJ, Laurance WF, Cruz AP, Pitman NCA, Vargas PN, Ramirez-Angulo H, Rudas A, Salamao R, Silva N, Terborgh J, Torres-Lezama A (2009) Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. Science 323: 1344-1347.
70. Poff NJ, Allan JD (1995) Functional organization of stream fish assemblages in relation to hydrological variability. Ecology 76: 606-627.
71. Postel SL, Thompson BH Jr (2005) Watershed protection: capturing the benefits of nature's water supply services. Nat Resour Forum 29: 98-108.
72. Ramankutty N, Foley JA (1998) Characterizing patterns of global land use: an analysis of global croplands data. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 12: 667-685.
73. Ripl W (2003) Water: the bloodstream of the biosphere. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B 358(1440): 1921-1934.
74. Risser P (1995) The Allerton Park workshop revisited-a commentary. Landscape Ecol 10: 129-132.
75. Sahin V, Hall MJ (1996) The effects of afforestation and deforestation on water yields. J Hydrol 178: 293-309.
76. Sampaio G, Nobre C, Costa MH, Sayamurty P, Soares-Filho BS, Cardoso M (2007) Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophys Res Lett 34: L17709.
77. Shukla J, Nobre C, Sellers P (1990) Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change. Science 247: 1322-1325.
78. Silvestrini RA, Soares-Filho BS, Nepstad D, Coe M, Rodrigues H, Assunção R (2011) Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation. Ecol Appl 21: 1573-1590.
79. Simpson T, Peplinski J, Koch P, Allen J (2001) Metamodels for computer-based engineering design: survey and recommendations. Eng with Comput 17: 129-150.
80. Soares-Filho BS, Nepstad DC, Curran LM, Cerqueira GC, Garcia RA, Ramos CA, Voll E, McDonald A, Lefebvre P, Schlesinger P (2006) Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature 440: 520-523.
81. Soares-Filho BS, Moutinho P, Nepstad D, Anderson A, Rodrigues H, Garcia R, Dietschi L, Merry F, Bowman M, Hissa L, Silvestrini R, Maretti C (2010) Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate change mitigation. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107(24): 10821-10826.
82. Soares-Filho BS, Silvestrini R, Nepstad D, Brando P, Rodrigues HO, Alencar A, Coe M, Locks C, Lima L, Hissa LBV, Stickler C (2012a) Forest fragmentation, climate change and understory fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu headwaters. Landscape Ecol 27(4): 585-598.
83. Soares-Filho BS, Lima LS, Bowman M, Hissa LV (2012b) Challenges for low-carbon agriculture and forest conservation in Brazil. Inter-American Development Bank Environmental Safeguards Unit (VPS/ESG) Technical Notes 2012.
84. Soares-Filho BS, Rodrigues HO, Follador M (2013) A hybrid analytical-heuristic method for calibrating land-use change models. Environ Model & Software 43: 80-87.
85. Southworth J, Marsik M, Qiu Y, Perz S, Cumming G, Stevens F, Rocha K, Duchelle A, Barnes G (2011) Roads as Drivers of Change: Trajectories across the Tri-National Frontier in MAP, the Southwestern Amazon. Remote Sens 3: 1047-1066.
86. Spracklen DV, Arnold SR, Taylor CM (2012) Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489: 282-286.
87. Stickler CM, Coe MT, Costa MH, Dias LC, Nepstad DC, McGrath DG, Rodrigues HO, Soares-Filho BS (2013) Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon basin at local and regional scales. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 1215331110.
88. Survival International Charitable Trust (2012) Survival 2012 annual report. http://assets. survivalinternational. org/documents/776/2012-final-report-illustrated-pdf. pdf. Accessed 3 February 2013.
89. Swenson JJ, Carter CE, Domec J-C, Delgado CI (2011) Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports. PLoS ONE 6(4): e18875.
90. Voldoire A, Royer JF (2004) Tropical deforestation and climate variability. Clim Dyn 22: 857-874.
91. Vörösmarty CJ, Moore B, Grace Al, Gildea MP, Melillo JM, Peterson BJ, Rastetter EB, Steudler PA (1989) Continental scale models of water balance and fluvial transport: an application to South America. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 3: 241-265.
92. Walling DE, Fang D (2003) Recent trends in the suspended sediment loads of the world's rivers. Glob Planet Change 39: 111-126.
93. Wu J (2013) Key concepts and research topics in landscape ecology revisited: 30 years after the Allerton Park workshop. Landscape Ecol 28: 1-11.