Testing the effects of temporal data resolution on predictions of the effects of climate change on bivalves

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 278, Issue , 2014, Pages 1-8

  Montalto, Valeria ^a   Sarà, Gianluca ^a   Ruti, Paolo Michele ^b   Dell'Aquila, Alessandro ^b   Helmuth, Brian ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PALERMO   (Italy)

^b ENEA   (Italy)

^c NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Darwinian fitness; Dynamic Energy Budget models; Marine intertidal zone; Mediterranean; Mytilus galloprovincialis; Regional climate models

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894031775     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.019     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Artale V., Calmanti S., Carillo A., Dell'Aquila A., Herrman M., Pisacane G., et al. An atmosphere-ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim. Dyn. 2010, 35:721-740.
2. Benedetti-Cecchi L. The importance of the variance around the mean effect size of ecological processes. Ecology 2003, 84:2335-2346.
3. Broitman B.R., Mieszkowska N., Helmuth B., Blanchette C.A. Climate and recruitment of rocky shore intertidal invertebrates in the Eastern North Atlantic. Ecology 2008, 89:S81-S90.
4. Buckley L.B., Urban M.C., Angilletta M.J., Crozier L.G., Rissler L.J., Sears M.W. Can mechanism inform species' distribution models?. Ecol. Lett. 2010, 13:1041-1054.
5. Burrows M.T., Harvey R., Robb L., Poloczanska E.S., Moore P., Leaper R., et al. Spatial scales of variance in abundance of intertidal species: effects of region, dispersal mode, and trophic level. Ecology 2009, 90:1242-1254.
6. Carillo A., Sannino G., Artale V., Ruti P.M., Calmanti S., Dell'Aquila A. Steric sea level rise over the Mediterranean Sea: present climate and scenario simulations. Clim. Dyn. 2012, 10.1007/s00382-012-1369-1.
7. Dell'Aquila A., Calmanti S., Ruti P., Struglia M.V., Pisacane G., Carillo A., et al. Impacts of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean. Clim. Res. 2011, 10.3354/cr01037.
8. Denny M.W., Helmuth B. Confronting the physiological bottleneck: a challenge from ecomechanics. Integr. Comp. Biol. 2009, 49:197-201.
9. Denny M.W., Miller L.P., Harley C.D.G. Thermal stress on intertidal limpets: long-term hindcasts and lethal limits. J. Exp. Biol. 2006, 209:2420-2431.
10. Denny M.W., Hunt L.J.H., Miller L.P., Harley C.D.G. On the prediction of extreme ecological events. Ecol. Monogr. 2009, 79:397-421.
11. Denny M.W., Dowd W.W., Bilir L., Mach K.J. Spreading the risk: small-scale body temperature variation among intertidal organisms and its implications for species persistence. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 2011, 400:175-190.
12. Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) Biodiversity Risk and Benefit Assessment 2012, www.daff.gov.za/doaDev/fisheries/03_areasofwork/Aquaculture/BIODIVERSITY/M.%20galloprovincialis%20BRBA%2012.12.12.pdf.
13. Dillon M.E., Wang G., Huey R.B. Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming. Nature 2010, 467:704-706.
14. Food and Agriculture Organization Fishery Statistics: Principal Producers in 1998 2000, FAO Department, Available at: http://www/fao.org/statist/summtab/aq_a5.asp.
15. Hallett T.B., Coulson T., Pilkington J.G., Clutton-Brock T.H., Pemberton J.M., Grenfell B.T. Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather. Nature 2004, 430:71-75.
16. Helmuth B., Broitman B.R., Yamane L., Gilman S.E., Mach K., Mislan K.A.S., et al. Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress. J. Exp. Biol. 2010, 213:995-1003.
17. Hickler T., Vihland K., Feehan J., Miller P.A., Smith B., Costa L., et al. Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2012, 21:50-63.
18. Holling C.S. Some characteristics of simple types of predation and parasitism. Can. Entomol. 1959, 91:385-398.
19. International Panel on Climate Change Contribution of Wzzorking Gzzroup I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK/New York, Available at: http://www.cambridge.org/features/earth_environmental/climatechange/wg1.htm. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
20. Jackson J.B.C., Kirby M.X., Berger W.H., Bjorndal K.A., Botsford L.W., Bourque B.J., Bradbury R.H., Cooke R., Erlandson J., Estes J.A., Hughes T.P., Kidwell S., Lange C.B., Lenihan H.S., Pandolfi J.M., Peterson C.H., Steneck R.S., Tegner M.J., Warner R.R. Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science 2001, 293(3):629-638.
21. Jager T. Making Sense of Chemical Stress Application of Dynamic Energy Budget Theory in Ecotoxicology and Stress 2012, http://www.debtox.info/book.php.
22. Jentsch A., Kreyling J., Beierkuhnlein C. A new generation of climate change experiments: events, not trends. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2007, 5:365-374.
23. Kearney M.R. Metabolic theory, life history and the distribution of a terrestrial ectotherm. Funct. Ecol. 2012, 26:167-179.
24. Kearney M., Porter W.P. Ecologists have already started rebuilding community ecology from functional traits. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2006, 21:481-482.
25. Kearney M., Simpson S.J., Raubenheimer D., Helmuth B. Modelling the ecological niche from functional traits. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Biol. 2011, 365:3469-3483.
26. Kearney M.R., Matzelle A., Helmuth B. Biomechanics meets the ecological niche: the importance of temporal data resolution. J. Exp. Biol. 2012, 215:922-933.
27. Kooijman S.A.L.M. Dynamic Energy Budget Theory for Metabolic Organisation 2010, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 3rd ed.
28. Leichter J.J., Helmuth B., Fischer A.M. Variation beneath the surface: quantifying complex thermal environments on coral reefs in the Caribbean, Bahamas and Florida. J. Mar. Res. 2006, 64:563-588.
29. Lima F.P., Burnett N.P., Helmuth B., Kish N., Aveni-Deforge K., Wethey D.S. Monitoring the intertidal environment with biomimetic devices. Biomimetic Based Applications 2011, 499-522. InTech, New York NY, ISBN: 978-953-307-195-4. M. Cavrak (Ed.).
30. Manel S., Williams H.C., Ormerod S.J. Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence. J. Appl. Ecol. 2001, 38:921-931.
31. Menge B.A., Gouhier T.C., Freidenburg T., Lubchenco J. Linking long-term, large-scale climatic and environmental variability to patterns of marine invertebrate recruitment: toward explaining "unexplained" variation. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 2011, 400:236-249.
32. Miller A.D., Roxburgh S.H., Shea K. How frequency and intensity shape diversity-disturbance relationship. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 2011, 108:5643-5648.
33. Mislan K.A.S., Wethey D.S. Gridded meteorological data as a resource for mechanistic macroecology in coastal environments. Ecol. Appl. 2011, 21:2678-2690.
34. Monaco C.J., Helmuth B. Tipping points, thresholds, and the keystone role of physiology in marine climate change research. Adv. Mar. Biol. 2011, 60:123-160.
35. Mumby P.J., Iglesias-Prieto R., Hooten A.J., Sale P.F., Hoegh-Guldberg O., Edwards A.J., et al. Revisiting climate thresholds and ecosystem collapse. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2011, 9:94-95.
36. Pennisi E. News computational biology virtual hot spots. Science 2012, 336:172-174.
37. Pfister C.A., Wootton J.T., Neufield C.J. Relative roles of coastal and oceanic processes in determining physical and chemical characteristics of an intensively sampled nearshore system. Limnol. Oceanogr. 2007, 52:1767-1775.
38. Potter K.A., Woods H.A., Pincebourde S. Microclimatic challenges in global change biology. Global Change Biol. 2013, 19:2932-2939.
39. Reynolds-Hogland M.J., Mitchell M.S. Three axes of ecological studies: matching process and time in landscape ecology. Temporal Dimensions of Landscape Ecology: Wildlife Responses to Variable Resources 2007, 174-194. Springer, New York. J.A. Bissonette, I. Storch (Eds.).
40. Sarà G., Kearney M., Helmuth B. Combining heat-transfer and energy budget models to predict local and geographic patterns of mortality in Mediterranean intertidal mussels. Chem. Ecol. 2011, 27:135-145.
41. Sarà G., Reid G., Rinaldi A., Palmeri V., Troell M., Kooijman S.A.L.M. Growth and reproductive simulation of candidate shellfish species at fish cages in the southern Mediterranean: Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) modelling for integrated multi-trophic aquaculture. Aquaculture 2012, 324-325:259-266.
42. Sarà G., Palmeri V., Montalto V., Rinaldi A., Widdows J. The parameterisation of bivalve functional traits in a context of mechanistic ecophysiological Dynamic Energy Budget model. Mar. Ecol. Progr. Ser. 2013, 480:99-117.
43. Sarà G., Palmeri V., Rinaldi A., Montalto V., Helmuth B. Predicting biological invasions in marine habitats through eco-physiological mechanistic models: a study case with the bivalve Brachidontes pharaonis. Divers. Distrib. 2013, 19:1235-1247.
44. Sarà G., Rinaldi A., Montalto V. Thinking beyond organism energy use: a trait based bioenergetic mechanistic approach for predictions of life history traits in marine organisms. Mar. Ecol. 2014, (in press).
45. Schweiger O., Heikkinen R.K., Harpke A., Hickler T., Klotz S., Kudrna O., et al. Increasing range mismatching of interacting species under global change is related to their ecological characteristics. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2012, 21:88-99.
46. Stenseth N.C., Mysterud A., Ottersen G., Hurrell J.W., Chan K.S., Lima M. Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 2002, 297:1292-1294.
47. Violle C., Enquist B.J., McGill B.J., Jiang L., Albert C.H., Hulshof C., et al. The return of the variance: intraspecific variability in community ecology. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2012, 27:244-252.
48. Wernberg T., Smale D.A., Thomsen M.S. A decade of climate change experiments on marine organisms: procedures, patterns and problems. Glob. Change Biol. 2012, 18:1491-1498.
49. Wiens J.A. Wildlife in patchy environments: metapopulations mosaics and management. Metapopulations and Wildlife Conservation 1996, 53-84. Island Press, Washington, DC. D. McCullough (Ed.).
50. Woodin S.A., Hilbish T.J., Helmuth B., Jones S.J., Wethey D.S. Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail. Ecol. Evol. 2013, 3:3334-3346.