Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

BMC Veterinary Research

Volumn 10, Issue , 2014, Pages

  de Glanville, William A ^a,c   Vial, Laurence ^b   Costard, Solenne ^a,d   Wieland, Barbara ^a   Pfeiffer, Dirk U ^a  

^a ROYAL VETERINARY COLLEGE   (United Kingdom)

^b CIRAD   (France)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^d EpiX Analytics   (United States)

Author keywords

African swine fever; Knowledge driven risk mapping; Multi criteria decision analysis

Indexed keywords

ANIMALIA; SUIDAE; SUS SCROFA DOMESTICA;

AFRICA; AFRICAN SWINE FEVER; ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISEASE; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; ENDEMIC DISEASE; EPIDEMIC; REPRODUCIBILITY; RISK FACTOR; SWINE;

AFRICA; AFRICAN SWINE FEVER; ANIMALS; DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; ENDEMIC DISEASES; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; RISK FACTORS; SWINE;

EID: 84892141846     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17466148     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1746-6148-10-9     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Costard S, Wieland B, de Glanville W, Jori F, Rowlands R, Vosloo W, Roger F, Pfeiffer DU, Dixon LK. African swine fever: how can global spread be prevented?. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2009, 364:2683-2696. 10.1098/rstb.2009.0098, 2865084, 19687038.
2. Penrith ML, Vosloo W. Review of African swine fever: transmission, spread and control. J S Afr Vet Assoc 2009, 80:58-62.
3. el Hicheri K, Gomez-Tejedor C, Penrith ML, Davies G, Douati A, Edoukou GJ, Wojciechowski K. The 1996 epizootic of African swine fever in the Ivory Coast. Rev - Off Int Epizoot 1998, 17:660-673.
4. Roger F, Ratovonjato J, Vola P, Uilenber G. Ornithodoros porcinus ticks, bushpigs, and African swine fever in Madagascar. Exp Appl Acarol 2001, 25:263-269. 10.1023/A:1010687502145, 11523921.
5. Jori F, Bastos ADS. Role of wild suids in the epidemiology of African swine fever. Ecohealth 2009, 6:296-310. 10.1007/s10393-009-0248-7, 19915917.
6. Babalobi OO, Olugasa BO, Oluwayelu DO, Ijagbone IF, Ayoade GO, Agbede SA. Analysis and evaluation of mortality losses of the 2001 African swine fever outbreak, Ibadan, Nigeria. Trop Anim Health Prod 2007, 39:533-542. 10.1007/s11250-007-9038-9, 17969716.
7. Costard S, Mur L, Lubroth J, Sánchez-Vizcaíno JM, Pfeiffer DU. Epidemiology of African swine fever virus. Virus Res 2013, 173:191-197. 10.1016/j.virusres.2012.10.030, 23123296.
8. Olugasa BO, Ijagbone IF. Pattern of spread of African swine fever in south-western Nigeria, 1997-2005. Vet Ital 2007, 43:621-628.
9. Blanton JD, Manangan A, Manangan J, Hanlon CA, Slate D, Rupprecht CE. Development of a GIS-based, real-time Internet mapping tool for rabies surveillance. Int J Health Geogr 2006, 5:47. 10.1186/1476-072X-5-47, 1635048, 17078890.
10. Clements ACA, Pfeiffer DU. Emerging viral zoonoses: frameworks for spatial and spatiotemporal risk assessment and resource planning. Vet J 2009, 182:21-30. 10.1016/j.tvjl.2008.05.010, 18718800.
11. Elnaiem D-EA, Schorscher J, Bendall A, Obsomer V, Osman ME, Mekkawi AM, Connor SJ, Ashford RW, Thomson MC. Risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis: the role of local variation in rainfall and altitude on the presence and incidence of kala-azar in eastern Sudan. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2003, 68:10-17.
12. Haque U, Magalhães RJS, Reid HL, Clements ACA, Ahmed SM, Islam A, Yamamoto T, Haque R, Glass GE. Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in an endemic area of Bangladesh. Malaria J 2010, 9:120.
13. Ortiz-Pelaez A, Pfeiffer DU, Tempia S, Otieno FT, Aden HH, Costagli R. Risk mapping of Rinderpest sero-prevalence in Central and Southern Somalia based on spatial and network risk factors. BMC Vet Res 2010, 6:22. 10.1186/1746-6148-6-22, 2873515, 20426843.
14. Clements ACA, Pfeiffer DU, Martin V. Application of knowledge-driven spatial modelling approaches and uncertainty management to a study of Rift Valley fever in Africa. Int J Health Geogr 2006, 5:57. 10.1186/1476-072X-5-57, 1702539, 17156467.
15. Stevens KB, Gilbert M, Pfeiffer DU. Modeling habitat suitability for occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in domestic poultry in Asia: a spatial multicriteria decision analysis approach. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2013, 4:1-14.
16. Stevens KB, Pfeiffer DU. Spatial modelling of disease using data- and knowledge-driven approaches. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2011, 2:125-133. 10.1016/j.sste.2011.07.007, 22748172.
17. Hongoh V, Hoen AG, Aenishaenslin C, Waaub J-P, Bélanger D, Michel P. Lyme-MCDA Consortium Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases. Int J Health Geogr 2011, 10:70. 10.1186/1476-072X-10-70, 3315429, 22206355, Lyme-MCDA Consortium.
18. Symeonakis E, Robinson T, Drake N. GIS and multiple-criteria evaluation for the optimisation of tsetse fly eradication programmes. Environ Monit Assess 2007, 124:89-103. 10.1007/s10661-006-9210-0, 17058018.
19. Store R, Kangas J. Integrating spatial multi-criteria evaluation and expert knowledge for GIS-based habitat suitability modelling. Landsc Urban Plann 2001, 55:79-93.
20. Jori F, Vial L, Penrith ML, Pérez-Sánchez R, Etter E, Albina E, Michaud V, Roger F. Review of the sylvatic cycle of African swine fever in sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian ocean. Virus Res 2013, 173:212-227. 10.1016/j.virusres.2012.10.005, 23142551.
21. Thomson GR. The epidemiology of African swine fever: the role of free-living hosts in Africa. Onderstepoort J Vet Res 1985, 52:201-209.
22. Thomson GR, Gainaru MD, Van Dellen AF. Experimental infection of warthogs (Phacochoerus aethiopicus) with African swine fever virus. Onderstepoort J Vet Res 1980, 47:19-22.
23. McCall PJ, Hume JCC, Motshegwa K, Pignatelli P, Talbert A, Kisinza W. Does tick-borne relapsing fever have an animal reservoir in East Africa?. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2007, 7:659-666. 10.1089/vbz.2007.0151, 18021022.
24. Rennie L, Wilkinson PJ, Mellor PS. Transovarial transmission of African swine fever virus in the argasid tick Ornithodoros moubata. Med Vet Entomol 2001, 15:140-146. 10.1046/j.1365-2915.2001.00282.x, 11434547.
25. Wardley RC, De M, Andrade C, Black DN, De Castro Portugal FL, Enjuanes L, Hess WR, Mebus C, Ordas A, Rutili D, Sanchez Vizcaino J, Vigario JD, Wilkinson PJ, Moura Nunes JF, Thomson G. African swine fever virus. Arch Virol 1983, 76:73-90. 10.1007/BF01311692, 6307224.
26. Pérez-Sánchez R, Astigarraga A, Oleaga-Pérez A, Encinas-Grandes A. Relationship between the persistence of African swine fever and the distribution of Ornithodoros erraticus in the province of Salamanca, Spain. Vet Rec 1994, 135:207-209. 10.1136/vr.135.9.207, 7998382.
27. Plowright W, Parker J, Pierce MA. African Swine fever virus in ticks (Ornithodorus moutaba) collected from animal burrows in Tanzania. Nature 1969, 221:1071-1073. 10.1038/2211071a0, 5813153.
28. Theiler G, Robinson BN. Tick survey (Part VIII) Checklists of ticks recorded from the Belgian Congo and Ruanda Urundi, from Angola and Northern Rhodesia. Onderstepoort J Vet Res 1954, 26:447-461.
29. Van der Merwe S. Some remarks on the 'tampans' of the Ornithodoros moubata complex in Southern Africa. Zool Anz 1968, 181:280-289.
30. Haresnape JM, Mamu FD. The distribution of ticks of the Ornithodoros moubata complex (Ixodoidea: Argasidae) in Malawi, and its relation to African swine fever epizootiology. J Hyg (Lond) 1986, 96:535-544. 10.1017/S0022172400066341, 2129695, 3734435.
31. Vial L, Wieland B, Jori F, Etter E, Dixon L, Roger F. African swine fever virus DNA in soft ticks, Senegal. Emerg Infect Dis 2007, 13:1928-1931. 10.3201/eid1312.071022, 2876773, 18258050.
32. Gulenkin VM, Korennoy FI, Karaulov AK, Dudnikov SA. Cartographical analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation and computer modeling of the basic reproduction ratio. Prev Vet Med 2011, 102:167-174. 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.07.004, 21840611.
33. Allepuz A, Saez M, Alba A, Napp S, Casal J. Exploratory spatial analysis of Aujeszky's disease during four phases of the eradication programme in Catalonia, Spain (2003-2007). Prev Vet Med 2008, 86:164-175. 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.04.005, 18562026.
34. Poljak Z, Dewey CE, Martin SW, Christensen J, Carman S, Friendship RM. Prevalence of and risk factors for influenza in southern Ontario swine herds in 2001 and 2003. Can J Vet Res 2008, 72:7-17. 2117371, 18214156.
35. Rhyan JC, Spraker TR. Emergence of diseases from wildlife reservoirs. Vet Pathol 2010, 47:34-39. 10.1177/0300985809354466, 20080482.
36. Fasina FO, Agbaje M, Ajani FL, Talabi OA, Lazarus DD, Gallardo C, Thompson PN, Bastos ADS. Risk factors for farm-level African swine fever infection in major pig-producing areas in Nigeria, 1997-2011. Prev Vet Med 2012, 107:65-75. 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2012.05.011, 22717326.
37. Saaty TL. The Analytic Hierarchy Process 1980, New York: McGraw-Hill.
38. Boroushaki S, Malczewski J. Implementing an extension of the analytical hierarchy process using ordered weighted averaging operators with fuzzy quantifiers in ArcGIS. Comput Geosci 2008, 34:399-410.
39. Malczewski J. GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis 1999, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
40. Boitani L, Corsi F, De Biase A, Carranza I, Ravagli M, Reggiani G, Sinibaldi I, Trapanese P. AMD African mammals databank. A databank for conservation and management of the African mammals 1999, Roma: Instituto di Ecologia Applicata: Report to the Directorate General for Development (GDVIII/A/1) of the European Commission.
41. Liu C, Berry P, Dawson T, Pearson R. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 2005, 28:385-393.
42. Barve N. Tool for Partial-ROC 2008, Biodiversity Institute: Version 1. Lawrence, KS, Available: http://kuscholarworks.ku.edu/dspace/handle/1808/10059.
43. Peterson AT, Papeş M, Soberón J. Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling. Ecol Model 2008, 213:63-72.
44. Penrith ML, Vosloo W, Jori F, Bastos ADS. African swine fever virus eradication in Africa. Virus Res 2013, 173:228-246. 10.1016/j.virusres.2012.10.011, 23142552.
45. Otesile EB, Ajuwape AT, Odemuyiwa SO, Akpavie SO, Olaifa AK, Odaibo GN, Olaleye DO, Adetosoye AI. Field and experimental investigations of an outbreak of African swine fever in Nigeria. Revue d'élevage et de médecine vétérinaire des pays tropicaux 2005, 58:21-26.
46. Penrith ML, Bastos ADS, Thomson GR, Wilkinson PJ. Epidemiology of African Swine Fever in West Africa 2000, 560. Melborne, Australia: Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress of the International Pig Veterinary Society.
47. Plowright W, Thomson GR. African Swine Fever. Infectious Diseases of Livestock, with Special Reference to Southern Africa 1994, Cape Town: Oxford University Press, Coetzer JAW, Thomson GR, Tustin RC.
48. Atuhaire DK, Ochwo S, Afayoa M, Mwiine FN, Kokas I, Arinaitwe E, Ademun-Okurut RA, Okuni JB, Nanteza A, Ayebazibwe C, Okedi L, Olaho-Mukani W, Ojok L. Epidemiological Overview of African Swine Fever in Uganda (2001-2012). J Vet Med 2013, doi:10.1155/2013/94963847.
49. Gallardo C, Ademun AR, Nieto R, Nantima N, Arias M, Martín E, Pelayo V, Bishop RP. Genotyping of African swine fever virus (ASFV) isolates associated with disease outbreaks in Uganda in 2007. Afr J Biotechnol 2011, 10:3488-3497.
50. Misinzo G, Kasanga CJ, Mpelumbe-Ngeleja C, Masambu J, Kitambi A, Van Doorsselaere J. African swine fever virus, Tanzania, 2010-2012. Emerg Infect Dis 2012, 18:2081-2083. 10.3201/eid1812.121083, 3557871, 23171814.
51. Lubisi BA, Bastos ADS, Dwarka RM, Vosloo W. Molecular epidemiology of African swine fever in East Africa. Arch Virol 2005, 150:2439-2452. 10.1007/s00705-005-0602-1, 16052280.
52. Okoth E, Gallardo C, Macharia JM, Omore A, Pelayo V, Bulimo DW, Arias M, Kitala P, Baboon K, Lekolol I, Mijele D, Bishop RP. Comparison of African swine fever virus prevalence and risk in two contrasting pig-farming systems in South-west and Central Kenya. Prev Vet Med 2013, 1:198-205.
53. Gallardo C, Okoth E, Pelayo V, Anchuelo R, Martín E, Simón A, Llorente A, Nieto R, Soler A, Martín R, Arias M, Bishop RP. African swine fever viruses with two different genotypes, both of which occur in domestic pigs, are associated with ticks and adult warthogs, respectively, at a single geographical site. J Gen Virol 2011, 92:432-444. 10.1099/vir.0.025874-0, 20965989.
54. Vose D. Risk Analysis: a Quantitative Guide 2008, Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons, 3.
55. Vaidya OS, Kumar S. Analytic hierarchy process: an overview of applications. Eur J Oper Res 2006, 169:1-29.
56. Bozóki S, Rapcsák T. On Saaty's and Koczkodaj's inconsistencies of pairwise comparison matrices. J Glob Optim 2007, 42:157-175.
57. Koczkodaj WW. A new definition of consistency of pairwise comparisons. Math Comput Model 1993, 18:79-84.
58. Kwiesielewicz M, van Uden E. Inconsistent and contradictory judgements in pairwise comparison method in the AHP. Comput OR 2004, 31:713-719.