메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 2153-2162

Scenario planning for the national wind energy sector through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC GROWTHS; ENERGY PLANNING; FINANCIAL RESOURCES; FUTURE VISIONS; FUZZY COGNITIVE MAP; NEW APPROACHES; SCENARIO PLANNING; WIND RESOURCES;

EID: 84890828777     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (16)

References (73)
  • 1
    • 84874769184 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of scenario planning
    • M. Amer, T. U. Daim, and A. Jetter, "A Review of Scenario Planning," Futures, vol. 46, pp. 23-40, 2013.
    • (2013) Futures , vol.46 , pp. 23-40
    • Amer, M.1    Daim, T.U.2    Jetter, A.3
  • 2
    • 60549116387 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining two approaches of integrated scenario development to combat desertification in the guadalentin watershed, spain
    • K. Kok and H. van Delden, "Combining two approaches of integrated scenario development to combat desertification in the Guadalentin watershed, Spain," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design vol. 36, pp. 49-66, 2009.
    • (2009) Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design , vol.36 , pp. 49-66
    • Kok, K.1    Van Delden, H.2
  • 3
    • 73649117138 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: The use of fuzzy cognitive maps as a communication and learning tool
    • M. van Vliet, K. Kok, and T. Veldkamp, "Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: The use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a communication and learning tool," Futures vol. 42, pp. 1-14, 2010.
    • (2010) Futures , vol.42 , pp. 1-14
    • Van Vliet, M.1    Kok, K.2    Veldkamp, T.3
  • 4
    • 69649100695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scenarios practices: In search of theory
    • February
    • A. Wilkinson, "Scenarios practices: in search of theory," Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 13, pp. 107-114, February 2009.
    • (2009) Journal of Futures Studies , vol.13 , pp. 107-114
    • Wilkinson, A.1
  • 6
    • 78149414500 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Revisiting and extending our understanding of pierre wack's the gentle art of re-perceiving
    • G. Burt, "Revisiting and extending our understanding of Pierre Wack's the gentle art of re-perceiving," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 77, pp. 1476-1484, 2010.
    • (2010) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.77 , pp. 1476-1484
    • Burt, G.1
  • 7
    • 84979378595 scopus 로고
    • When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration
    • P. J. H. Schoemaker, "When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration," Journal of Forecasting, vol. 10, pp. 549-564, 1991.
    • (1991) Journal of Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 549-564
    • Schoemaker, P.J.H.1
  • 8
    • 0003489744 scopus 로고
    • The year 2000: A framework for speculation on the next thirty
    • New York
    • H. Kahn and A. J. Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years: The Macmillan, New York, 1967.
    • (1967) Three Years: The Macmillan
    • Kahn, H.1    Wiener, A.J.2
  • 13
    • 78149407877 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight
    • C. Bezold, "Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 77, pp. 1513-1518, 2010.
    • (2010) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.77 , pp. 1513-1518
    • Bezold, C.1
  • 14
    • 84989132948 scopus 로고
    • Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation
    • P. J. H. Schoemaker, "Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation," Strategic Management Journal, vol. 14, pp. 193-213, 1993.
    • (1993) Strategic Management Journal , vol.14 , pp. 193-213
    • Schoemaker, P.J.H.1
  • 15
    • 1542394831 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Roadmapping for dynamic and uncertain environments
    • J. D. Strauss and M. Radnor, "Roadmapping for dynamic and uncertain environments," Research Technology Management, vol. 47, pp. 51-57, 2004.
    • (2004) Research Technology Management , vol.47 , pp. 51-57
    • Strauss, J.D.1    Radnor, M.2
  • 16
    • 1642538244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving decision-making with scenario planning
    • T. Chermack, "Improving decision-making with scenario planning," Futures, vol. 36, pp. 295-309, 2004.
    • (2004) Futures , vol.36 , pp. 295-309
    • Chermack, T.1
  • 18
    • 37549015986 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selecting management tools wisely
    • D. Rigby and B. Bilodeau, "Selecting management tools wisely," Harvard Business Review, vol. 85, pp. 20-22, 2007.
    • (2007) Harvard Business Review , vol.85 , pp. 20-22
    • Rigby, D.1    Bilodeau, B.2
  • 19
    • 77951626144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Directions in scenario planning literature A review of the past decades
    • C. A. Varum and C. Melo, "Directions in scenario planning literature A review of the past decades," Futures, vol. 42, pp. 355-369, 2010.
    • (2010) Futures , vol.42 , pp. 355-369
    • Varum, C.A.1    Melo, C.2
  • 20
    • 1442327919 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Educating the guess: Strategies, concepts, and tools for the fuzzy front end of product development
    • Portland, OR, USA
    • A. J. Jetter, "Educating the guess: strategies, concepts, and tools for the fuzzy front end of product development," in Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Portland, OR, USA, 2003, pp. 261-273.
    • (2003) Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET) , pp. 261-273
    • Jetter, A.J.1
  • 21
    • 12144269858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool
    • T. J. B. M. Postma and F. Liebl, "How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72, pp. 161-173, 2005.
    • (2005) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.72 , pp. 161-173
    • Postma, T.J.B.M.1    Liebl, F.2
  • 22
    • 0009321155 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls
    • M. Godet, "The art of scenarios and strategic planning: tools and pitfalls," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 65, pp. 3-22, 2000.
    • (2000) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.65 , pp. 3-22
    • Godet, M.1
  • 23
    • 0001237471 scopus 로고
    • How to develop and use scenarios
    • S. P. Schnaars, "How to develop and use scenarios," Long Range Planning, vol. 20, pp. 105-114, 1987.
    • (1987) Long Range Planning , vol.20 , pp. 105-114
    • Schnaars, S.P.1
  • 26
    • 77956690536 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector
    • M. Amer and T. U. Daim, "Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 77, pp. 1355-1370, 2010.
    • (2010) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.77 , pp. 1355-1370
    • Amer, M.1    Daim, T.U.2
  • 27
    • 0037400978 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis of the US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications
    • R. Silberglitt, A. Hove, and P. Shulman, "Analysis of the US energy scenarios: meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 70, pp. 297-315, 2003.
    • (2003) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.70 , pp. 297-315
    • Silberglitt, R.1    Hove, A.2    Shulman, P.3
  • 29
    • 11244249715 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California
    • R. Ghanadan and J. G. Koomey, "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California," Energy Policy, vol. 33, pp. 1117-1142, 2005.
    • (2005) Energy Policy , vol.33 , pp. 1117-1142
    • Ghanadan, R.1    Koomey, J.G.2
  • 30
    • 52149118918 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The reality and future scenarios of commercial building energy consumption in china
    • N. Zhou and J. Lin, "The reality and future scenarios of commercial building energy consumption in China," Energy and Buildings, vol. 40, pp. 2121-2127, 2008.
    • (2008) Energy and Buildings , vol.40 , pp. 2121-2127
    • Zhou, N.1    Lin, J.2
  • 31
    • 79953293712 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand
    • T. Limanond, S. Jomnonkwao, and A. Srikaew, "Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand," Energy Policy, vol. 39, pp. 2754-2763, 2011.
    • (2011) Energy Policy , vol.39 , pp. 2754-2763
    • Limanond, T.1    Jomnonkwao, S.2    Srikaew, A.3
  • 32
    • 72249105777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in lao people's democratic republic
    • S.M. Mustonen, "Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic," Energy Policy, vol. 38, pp. 1040-1048, 2010.
    • (2010) Energy Policy , vol.38 , pp. 1040-1048
    • Mustonen, S.M.1
  • 33
    • 80054851924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Energy sector of the russian far east: Current status and scenarios for the future
    • V. Kalashnikov, R. Gulidov, and A. Ognev, "Energy sector of the Russian Far East: Current status and scenarios for the future," Energy Policy, vol. 39, pp. 6760-6780, 2011.
    • (2011) Energy Policy , vol.39 , pp. 6760-6780
    • Kalashnikov, V.1    Gulidov, R.2    Ognev, A.3
  • 34
    • 64749099764 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of ecological footprinting to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an irish city-region
    • D. Browne, B. O'Regan, and R. Moles, "Use of ecological footprinting to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region," Energy Policy, vol. 37, pp. 2205-2213, 2009.
    • (2009) Energy Policy , vol.37 , pp. 2205-2213
    • Browne, D.1    O'regan, B.2    Moles, R.3
  • 35
    • 0037400989 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process
    • J. J. Winebrake and B. P. Creswick, "The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: an application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 70, pp. 359-384, 2003.
    • (2003) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.70 , pp. 359-384
    • Winebrake, J.J.1    Creswick, B.P.2
  • 37
    • 33644698891 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of european hydrogen infrastructure scenarios-co2 reduction potential and infrastructure investment
    • M. Wietschel, U. Hasenauer, and A. de Groot, "Development of European hydrogen infrastructure scenarios-CO2 reduction potential and infrastructure investment," Energy Policy, vol. 34, pp. 1284-1298, 2006.
    • (2006) Energy Policy , vol.34 , pp. 1284-1298
    • Wietschel, M.1    Hasenauer, U.2    De Groot, A.3
  • 38
    • 40849146875 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hydrogen perspectives in italy: Analysis of possible deployment scenarios
    • M. Contaldi, F. Gracceva, and A. Mattucci, "Hydrogen perspectives in Italy: Analysis of possible deployment scenarios," International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, vol. 33, pp. 1630-1642, 2008.
    • (2008) International Journal of Hydrogen Energy , vol.33 , pp. 1630-1642
    • Contaldi, M.1    Gracceva, F.2    Mattucci, A.3
  • 40
    • 1542643762 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Costing electricity supply scenarios: A case study of promoting renewable energy technologies on Rodriguez, Mauritius
    • D. Weisser, "Costing electricity supply scenarios: A case study of promoting renewable energy technologies on Rodriguez, Mauritius," Renewable Energy, vol. 29, pp. 1319-1347, 2004.
    • (2004) Renewable Energy , vol.29 , pp. 1319-1347
    • Weisser, D.1
  • 41
    • 78650563625 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The development of the german energy market until 2030-A critical survey of selected scenarios
    • D. Keles, D. Möst, and W. Fichtner, "The development of the German energy market until 2030-A critical survey of selected scenarios," Energy Policy, vol. 39, pp. 812-825, 2011.
    • (2011) Energy Policy , vol.39 , pp. 812-825
    • Keles, D.1    Möst, D.2    Fichtner, W.3
  • 42
    • 53249097337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Excess heat from kraft pulp mills: Trade-offs between internal and external use in the case of sweden-part 2: Results for future energy market scenarios
    • J. Jönsson, I.-L. Svensson, T. Berntsson, and B. Moshfegh, "Excess heat from kraft pulp mills: Trade-offs between internal and external use in the case of Sweden-Part 2: Results for future energy market scenarios," Energy Policy, vol. 36, pp. 4186-4197, 2008.
    • (2008) Energy Policy , vol.36 , pp. 4186-4197
    • Jönsson, J.1    Svensson, I.-L.2    Berntsson, T.3    Moshfegh, B.4
  • 43
    • 79961125023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scenario analysis of china's primary energy demand and co2 emissions based on ipat model
    • W. Di, N. Rui, and S. Hai-ying, "Scenario analysis of China's primary energy demand and CO2 emissions based on IPAT model," Energy Procedia, vol. 5, pp. 365-369, 2011.
    • (2011) Energy Procedia , vol.5 , pp. 365-369
    • Di, W.1    Rui, N.2    Hai-Ying, S.3
  • 44
    • 60649091092 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting
    • K. Czaplicka-Kolarz, K. Stanczyk, and K. Kapusta, "Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 76, pp. 327-338, 2009.
    • (2009) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.76 , pp. 327-338
    • Czaplicka-Kolarz, K.1    Stanczyk, K.2    Kapusta, K.3
  • 45
    • 66349086439 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for taiwan
    • T.-Y. Chen, O. S. Yu, G. J.-y. Hsu, F.-M. Hsu, and W.-N. Sung, "Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan," Energy Policy, vol. 37, pp. 2900-2906, 2009.
    • (2009) Energy Policy , vol.37 , pp. 2900-2906
    • Chen, T.-Y.1    Yu, O.S.2    Hsu, G.J.-Y.3    Hsu, F.-M.4    Sung, W.-N.5
  • 46
    • 35648991030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in austria
    • R. Madlener, K. Kowalski, and S. Stagl, "New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria," Energy Policy, vol. 35, pp. 6060-6074, 2007.
    • (2007) Energy Policy , vol.35 , pp. 6060-6074
    • Madlener, R.1    Kowalski, K.2    Stagl, S.3
  • 47
    • 13644274934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wind power in finland up to the year 2025-soft' scenarios based on expert views
    • V. Varho and P. Tapio, "Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025-soft' scenarios based on expert views," Energy Policy, vol. 33, pp. 1930-1947, 2005.
    • (2005) Energy Policy , vol.33 , pp. 1930-1947
    • Varho, V.1    Tapio, P.2
  • 48
    • 71849084254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios
    • J. M. Morales, R. Mínguez, and A. J. Conejo, "A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios," Applied Energy, vol. 87, pp. 843-855, 2010.
    • (2010) Applied Energy , vol.87 , pp. 843-855
    • Morales, J.M.1    Mínguez, R.2    Conejo, A.J.3
  • 49
    • 0023401212 scopus 로고
    • Scenario planning-what style should you use
    • W. R. Huss and E. J. Honton, "Scenario planning-What style should you use?," Long Range Planning, vol. 20, pp. 21-29, 1987.
    • (1987) Long Range Planning , vol.20 , pp. 21-29
    • Huss, W.R.1    Honton, E.J.2
  • 53
    • 20444437996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
    • R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, and K. Van Der Heijden, "The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning," Futures, vol. 37, pp. 795-812, 2005.
    • (2005) Futures , vol.37 , pp. 795-812
    • Bradfield, R.1    Wright, G.2    Burt, G.3    Cairns, G.4    Heijden Der K.Van5
  • 55
    • 78650995356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Building scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps: An exploratory study of solar energy
    • A. Jetter and W. Schweinfort, "Building scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps: An exploratory study of solar energy," Futures, vol. 43, pp. 52-66, 2011.
    • (2011) Futures , vol.43 , pp. 52-66
    • Jetter, A.1    Schweinfort, W.2
  • 58
    • 78650980695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Codification-knowledge maps
    • A.J. Jetter, J. Kraaijenbrink, H.-H. Schroder, and F. Wijnhoven, Eds., First ed Heidelberg, Germany: Physica-Verlag
    • A. J. Jetter, "Codification-knowledge maps," in Knowledge Integration: The Practice of Knowledge Management in Small and Medium Enterprises, A.J. Jetter, J. Kraaijenbrink, H.-H. Schroder, and F. Wijnhoven, Eds., First ed Heidelberg, Germany: Physica-Verlag, 2006, pp. 77-90.
    • (2006) Knowledge Integration: The Practice of Knowledge Management in Small and Medium Enterprises , pp. 77-90
    • Jetter, A.J.1
  • 60
    • 0004262910 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prentice-Hall Inc., New Jersey
    • B. Kosko, Fuzzy Engineering: Prentice-Hall Inc., New Jersey, 1997.
    • (1997) Fuzzy Engineering
    • Kosko, B.1
  • 61
    • 0041429597 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integrating market and technological knowledge in the fuzzy front end: An FCM-based action support system
    • H.-H. Schroder and A. J. M. Jetter, "Integrating market and technological knowledge in the fuzzy front end: an FCM-based action support system," International Journal of Technology Management, vol. 26, pp. 517-539, 2003.
    • (2003) International Journal of Technology Management , vol.26 , pp. 517-539
    • Schroder, H.-H.1    Jetter, A.J.M.2
  • 62
    • 10944239524 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A survey about fuzzy cognitive maps papers (Invited Paper)
    • J. Aguilar, "A survey about fuzzy cognitive maps papers (Invited Paper)," International Journal of Computational Cognition, vol. 3, pp. 27-33, 2005.
    • (2005) International Journal of Computational Cognition , vol.3 , pp. 27-33
    • Aguilar, J.1
  • 65
    • 70450260782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A systematic approach to developing national technology policy and strategy for emerging technologies
    • PhD Dissertation Department, Portland State University, Portland, OR
    • P. Gerdsri, "A systematic approach to developing national technology policy and strategy for emerging technologies," PhD Dissertation, Engineering and Technology Management (ETM) Department, Portland State University, Portland, OR, 2009.
    • (2009) Engineering and Technology Management (ETM)
    • Gerdsri, P.1
  • 66
    • 84890816850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Practical guide to regional foresight in the united kingdom
    • 2002, March 14
    • I. Miles and M. Keenan. (2002, March 14, 2011). Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the United Kingdom. Directorate-General for Research, European Commission. Available: http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/cgrf.htm
    • (2011) Directorate-General for Research, European Commission
    • Miles, I.1    Keenan, M.2
  • 67
    • 42149110919 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A framework for developing intelligent decision support systems using evolutionary fuzzy cognitive maps
    • N. H. Mateou and A. S. Andreou, "A framework for developing intelligent decision support systems using evolutionary fuzzy cognitive maps," Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, vol. 19, pp. 151-170, 2008.
    • (2008) Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems , vol.19 , pp. 151-170
    • Mateou, N.H.1    Andreou, A.S.2
  • 68
    • 0002855517 scopus 로고
    • Knowledge processing with fuzzy cognitive maps
    • R. Taber, "Knowledge processing with fuzzy cognitive maps," Expert Systems with Applications vol. 2, pp. 83-87, 1991.
    • (1991) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.2 , pp. 83-87
    • Taber, R.1
  • 70
    • 25444481976 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scenario development and risk management using morphological field analysis
    • Cork, Ireland
    • T. Ritchey, "Scenario development and risk management using morphological field analysis," in Fifth European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS), Cork, Ireland, 1997, pp. 1053-1059.
    • (1997) Fifth European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS) , pp. 1053-1059
    • Ritchey, T.1
  • 72
    • 0028785256 scopus 로고
    • Projecting scenarios for south-east asia and the south-west pacific
    • R. G. Coyle and G. R. McGlone, "Projecting scenarios for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific," Futures, vol. 27, pp. 65-79, 1995.
    • (1995) Futures , vol.27 , pp. 65-79
    • Coyle, R.G.1    McGlone, G.R.2
  • 73
    • 0013559787 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selecting a variety of futures for scenario development
    • L. Jenkins, "Selecting a variety of futures for scenario development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 55, pp. 15-20, 1997.
    • (1997) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.55 , pp. 15-20
    • Jenkins, L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.