The impacts of climate change on the People's Republic of China's grain output: Regional and crop perspective

China Agricultural Economic Review

Volumn 5, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 434-458

  Xin, Xian ^a   Lin, Tun ^b   Liu, Xiaoyun ^a   Wan, Guanghua ^b   Zhang, Yongsheng ^c  

^a CHINA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK   (Philippines)

^c Development Research Center of the State Council   (China)

Author keywords

China; Resource economics and environment protection; Rural household behavior

Indexed keywords

EID: 84889658838     PISSN: 1756137X     EISSN: 17561388     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1108/CAER-03-2013-0049     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Albersen, P., Fischer, G., Keyzer, M. and Sun, L. (2000), Estimation of Agricultural Production Relation in the LUC Model for China, Interim Report IR-00-027, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg.
2. Albersen, P., Fischer, G., Keyzer, M. and Sun, L. (2002), Estimation of Agricultural Production Relations in the LUC Model for China, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg.
3. Cline, W. (1996), “The impact of climate change on agriculture: comment”, American Economic Review, Vol. 86 No. 5, pp. 1309-1311.
4. Cline, W. (2007), Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country, Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
5. CNCC (2009), China's Regional Climate Changes Simulation Model and Its Applications in Evaluation of Climate Changes Impacts, China National Climate Center, Beijing.
6. Darwin, R., Tsigas, M., Lewabdrowski, J. and Raneses, A. (1995), World Agriculture and Climate Change, Agricultural Economic Report No. 703, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC.
7. Ding, Y., Ren, G., Shi, G., Gong, P., Zheng, X., Zhai, P., Zhang, D., Zhao, Z., Wang, S., Wang, H., Luo, Y., Chen, D., Gao, X. and Dai, X. (2006), “National assessment report of climate changes (I): climate changes in China and its future trend”, Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 3-8.
8. Fischer, G., Shah, M. and van Velthuizen, H. (2002), Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, report prepared under UN Institutional Contract Agreement 1113 for World Summit on Sustainable Development, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg.
9. Fischer, G., Shah, M., Tubiello, F.N. and van Velthuizen, H. (2005), “Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Vol. 360, pp. 2067-2083.
10. Fischer, G., Shah, M., van Velthuizen, H. and Nachtergaele, F.O. (2001), Global Agro-Ecological Assessment in the 21st Century, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg.
11. Harasawa, H., Matsuoka, Y., Takahashi, K., Hijioka, Y., Shimada, Y., Munesue, Y. and Lal, M. (2003), “Potential impacts of global climate change”, Climate Policy Assessment: Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling, Springer, Berlin, pp. 37-54.
12. IPCC (2010), The Projections of the Earth's Future Climate, available at: www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/029.htm.
13. Kane, S., Reilly, J.M. and Tobey, J. (1992), “An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture”, Climatic Change, Vol. 21, pp. 17-35.
14. Liu, H., Li, X., Fischer, G. and Sun, L. (2004), “Study on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture”, Climatic Change, Vol. 65 Nos 1/2, pp. 125-148.
15. Mendelsohn, R. and Dinar, A. (1999), “Climate change, agriculture, and developing countries: does adaptation matter?”, World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 14 No. 2, pp. 277-293.
16. NBSC (2010), China Statistical Year Book China Statistical Press, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing.
17. Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. and Fischer, G. (2004), “Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios”, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 14, pp. 53-67.
18. Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M.L. (1994), “Potential impact of climate change on world food supply”, Nature, Vol. 367, pp. 133-138.
19. Tao, F., Hayashi, Y., Zhang, Z., Sakamoto, T. and Yokozawa, M. (2008), “Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: developing a probabilistic assessment”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 148, pp. 94-110.
20. Tsigas, M.E., Frisvold, G.B. and Kuhn, B. (1997), Global Climate Change in Agriculture' in Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, edited by Hertel, T.W., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
21. Wang, J., Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. and Huang, J. (2008a), “How China's farmers adapt to climate change”, Policy Research Working Paper No. 4758, Vol. 4758, World Bank, Washington, DC.
22. Wang, J., Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., Huang, J., Rozelle, S. and Zhang, L. (2008b), “Can China continue feeding itself? The impact of climate change on agriculture”, Policy Research Working Paper No. 4470, Vol. 4470, World Bank, Washington, DC.
23. Wang, J.X., Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., Huang, J.K., Rozelle, S. and Zhang, L.J. (2009), “The impact of climate change on China's agriculture”, Agricultural Economics, Vol. 40 No. 3, pp. 323-337.
24. Wu, D., Yu, Q., Lu, C. and Hengsdijk, H. (2006), “Quantifying production potentials of winter wheat in the north China plain”, European Journal of Agronomy, Vol. 24, pp. 226-235.
25. Zhai, F., Lin, T. and Byambadorj, E. (2009), “A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China”, Asian Development Review, Vol. 26 No. 1, pp. 206-255.
26. Zhang, Y.S. (2010), “The Ricardian model of climate changes impacts: further discussions”, ADB Project (Number: 43068), mimeo.
27. Zhang, Y.S. and Xin, X. (2010), “A survey of climate changes on China's agriculture”, ADB Project (Number: 43068), mimeo.
28. Armington, P.S. (1969), “A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 16, pp. 159-176.
29. Bosello, F. and Zhang, J. (2005), “Assessing climate change impacts: agriculture”, FEEM Working Paper No. 94.05; CMCC Research Paper No. 02.
30. Bosworth, B. and Chodorow-Reich, G. (2007), “Saving and demographic change: the global dimension”, Working Paper, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, No. 2007-2, May.
31. Bruinsma, J. (Ed.) (2003), World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 – An FAO Perspective, Earthscan, Oxford.
32. Garbaccio, R.F., Ho, M.S. and Jorgenson, D.W. (1998), Controlling Carbon Emissions in China, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.
33. 2 emission reduction analysis”, Quantitative and Technical Economics Research, Vol. 2002 No. 10, pp. 39-47.
34. Hertel, T.W. (Ed.) (1997), Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
35. Huang, Y. and Wang, X. (2002), “Development of environmental computable general equilibrium model and analysis”, China Population Resources and Environment, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 34-38.
36. IPCC (2007a), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Work Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
37. IPCC (2007b), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Work Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
38. Lee, H.-L., Hertel, T., Sohngen, B. and Ramankutty, N. (2005), “Towards an integrated land use database for assessing the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation”, GTAP Technical Papers 1900, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.
39. O'Connor, D., Zhai, F., Aunan, K., Berntsen, T. and Vennemo, H. (2003), “Agricultural and human health impacts of climate policy in China: a general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Guangdong”, Technical Paper No. 206, OECD Development Centre, Paris.
40. Palatnik, R.R. and Roson, R. (2009), “Climate change assessment and agriculture in general equilibrium models: alternative modeling strategies”, Working Paper No. 08/WP/2009, Department of Economics, University of Ca' Foscari, Venice.
41. Rimmer, M.T. and Powell, A.A. (1996), “An implicitly additive demand system”, Applied Economics, Vol. 28, pp. 1613-1622.
42. Ronneberger, K., Berrittella, M., Bosello, F. and Tol, R.S.J. (2008), “KLUM@GTAP: spatially-explicit, biophysical land use in a computable general equilibrium model”, GTAP Working Paper No. 50, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.
43. Shoven, J.B. and Whalley, J. (1992), Applying General Equilibrium, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
44. van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2005), LINKAGE Technical Reference Document: Version 6.0, mimeo, World Bank, Washington, DC.
45. Wang, C. (2003), Climate Change Policy Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Dynamic CGE Model of China, Tsinghua University, Beijing.
46. Wei, T. (2002), “The impact of imposing carbon tax to the economy and greenhouse emission of China”, World Economics and Politics, Vol. 2002 No. 8, pp. 47-49.
47. Xiong, W., Declan, C., Erda, L., Yinlong, X., Hui, J., Jinhe, J., Ian, H. and Yan, L. (2009), “Future cereal production in China: the interaction of climate change, water availability, and socio-economic scenarios”, Global Environment Change, Vol. 19 No. 1, pp. 34-44.
48. Yu, W., Hertel, T., Preckel, P. and Eales, J. (2004), “Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 21 No. 1, pp. 99-129.
49. Zhang, Z.X. (2000), “Can China afford to commit itself an emissions cap? An economic and political analysis”, Energy Economics, Vol. 22 No. 6, pp. 587-614.