Comparing and combining physically-based and empirically-based approaches for estimating the hydrology of ungauged catchments

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 508, Issue , 2014, Pages 227-239

  Booker, D J ^a   Woods, R A ^b  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WATER AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (New Zealand)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Flow duration curves; Hydrological indices; Rainfall runoff model; Random Forests; Ungauged sites

Indexed keywords

DECISION TREES; ESTIMATION; MEAN SQUARE ERROR; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RUNOFF; WATER RESOURCES;

FLOW DURATION CURVE; HYDROLOGICAL INDICES; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RANDOM FORESTS; UNGAUGED SITES;

CATCHMENTS;

COMPARATIVE STUDY; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; FLOOD FREQUENCY; PREDICTION; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; TIME SERIES; WATER RESOURCE;

NEW ZEALAND;

EID: 84888422269     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.007     Document Type: Article

References (98)

1. Bandaragoda C., Tarboton D.G., Woods R. Application of TOPNET in the distributed model comparison project. Journal of Hydrology 2004, 298:178-201.
2. Bárdossy A. Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2007, 11:703-710.
3. Beven K.J. TOPMODEL: a critique. Hydrological Processes 1997, 11:1069-1085.
4. Beven K.J. A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology 2006, 320:18-36.
5. Beven K.J., Binley A.M. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes 1992, 6:279-298.
6. Beven K.J., Kirkby M.J. A physically based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin 1979, 24:43-69.
7. Beven K.J., Lamb R., Quinn P., Romanowicz R., Freer J. TOPMODEL. Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology 1995, 627-668. Water Resour. Publ, Highlands Ranch, Colorado. V.P. Singh (Ed.).
8. Biggs B.J.F. Eutrophication of streams and rivers: dissolved nutrient chlorophyll relationships for benthic algae. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 2000, 19:17-31.
9. Blöschl G., Sivapalan M. Scale issue in hydrological modelling - a review. Hydrological Processes 1995, 9:251-290.
10. Blöschl G., Sivapalan M., Wagener T., Viglione A., Savenije H. Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Synthesis across Processes, Places and Scales 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, (500 pp.).
11. Booker D.J. Spatial and temporal patterns in the frequency of events exceeding three times the median flow (FRE3) across New Zealand. Journal of Hydrology (NZ) 2013, 52:15-40.
12. Booker D.J., Snelder T.H. Comparing methods for estimating flow duration curves at ungauged sites. Journal of Hydrology 2012, 434-435:78-94.
13. Botter G., Porporato A., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., Rinaldo A. Nonlinear storage-discharge relations and catchment streamflow regimes. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W10427. 10.1029/2008WR007658.
14. Breiman L. Random forests. Machine Learning 2001, 45:15-32.
15. Brekke L.D., Miller N.L., Bashford K.E., Quinn N.W.T., Dracup J.A. Climate change impacts uncertainty for water resources in the San Joaquin River basin, California. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2004, 40:149-164.
16. Castellarin A., Galeati G., Brandimarte L., Montanari A., Brath A. Regional flow-duration curves: reliability for ungauged basins. Advances in Water Resources 2004, 27:953-965.
17. Cheng L., Yaeger M., Viglione A., Coopersmith E., Ye S., Sivapalan M. Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves - Part 1: Insights from statistical analyses. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2012, 16:4435-4446.
18. Chow V.T., Maidment D.R., Mays L.W. Applied Hydrology 1988, McGraw-Hill, USA.
19. Clapcott J.E., Young R.G., Goodwin E.O., Leathwick J.R. Exploring the response of functional indicators of stream health to land-use gradients. Freshwater Biology 2010, 55:2181-2199.
20. Clark M.P., Woods R.A., Zheng X., Ibbitt R.P., Slater A.G., Rupp D.E., Schmidt J., Uddstrom M.J. Hydrological data assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter: use of streamflow observations to update states in a distributed hydrological model. Advances in Water Resources 2008, 31:1309-1324.
21. Clausen B., Plew D. How high are bed-moving flows in New Zealand rivers?. Journal of Hydrology (NZ) 2004, 43:19-37.
22. Coopersmith E., Yaeger M.A., Ye S., Cheng L., Sivapalan M. Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves - Part 3: A catchment classification system based on regime curve indicators. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2012, 16:4467-4482.
23. Cutler D.R., Edwards T.C., Beard K.H., Cutler A., Hess K.T., Gibson J., Lawler J.J. Random forests for classification in ecology. Ecology 2007, 88:2783-2792.
24. Di Prinzio M., Castellarin A., Toth E. Data-driven catchment classification: application to the pub problem. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011, 15:1921-1935.
25. EC, 2000. Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of October 23 2000. Establishing a Framework for Community Action in the Field of Water Policy. Official Journal of the European Communities, L327/1eL327/72. 22.12.2000.
26. Efron, B., 1982. The jackknife, the bootstrap and other resampling plans. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, PA. 92p.
27. Elith J., Graham C.H. Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography 2009, 32:66-77.
28. Engeland K., Hisdal H. A comparison of low flow estimates in ungauged catchments using regional regression and the HBV-model. Water Resources Management 2009, 23:2567-2586.
29. Fahey B., Jackson R. Hydrological impacts of converting native forests and grasslands to pine plantations, South Island, New Zealand. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 1997, 84:69-82.
30. Fenicia F., McDonnell J.J., Savenije H.H.G. Learning from model improvement: on the contribution of complementary data to process understanding. Water Resources Research 2008, 44:W06419. 10.1029/2007WR006386.
31. Ganora D., Claps P., Laio F., Viglione A. An approach to estimate nonparametric flow duration curves in ungauged basins. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W10418. 10.1029/2008WR007472.
32. Goring, D.G., 1994. Kinematic shocks and monoclinal waves in the Waimakariri, a steep, braided, gravel-bed river. In: Proceedings of the International Symposium on waves: Physical and numerical modelling, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, pp. 336-345.
33. Gupta H.V., Sorooshian S., Yapo P.O. Status of automatic calibration for hydrologic models: Comparison with multilevel expert calibration. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 1999, 4(2):135-143.
34. Gupta H.V., Beven K.J., Wagener T. Model calibration and uncertainty estimation encyclopedia of hydrological sciences. Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences 2006, 1-17. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester. M.G. Anderson (Ed.).
35. Hamilton J.D. Time Series Analysis 1994, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
36. Hastie T., Tibshirani R., Friedman J. The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction 2009, Springer, New York, New York, USA. second ed.
37. Henderson, R.D., Woods, R.A., Schmidt, J., 2004. A new low flow model for New Zealand - Part 3. New Zealand Hydrological Society 2004 Conference abstract, Queenstown, November, 2004.
38. Henderson, R.D., Woods, R.A., Singh, S.K., Zammit, C.L., 2011. Surface Water Components of New Zealand's National Water Accounts. NIWA Client Report. Christchurch, New Zealand, NIWA. CHC2011-051 (SNZ11501) for Statistics New Zealand. 45pp.
39. Jakeman A.J., Hornberger G.M. How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model?. Water Resources Research 1993, 29:2637-2649.
40. Kiem A.S., Franks S.W., Kuczera G. Multi-decadal variability of flood risk. Geophysical Research Letters 2003, 30. 10.1029/2002GL015992.
41. Leathwick J.R., Rowe D., Richardson J., Elith J., Hastie T. Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to predict the distributions of New Zealand's freshwater diadromous fish. Freshwater Biology 2005, 50:2034-2052.
42. Leathwick J.R., Snelder T., Chadderton W., Elith J., Julian K., Ferrier S. Use of generalised dissimilarity modelling to improve the biological discrimination of river and stream classifications. Freshwater Biology 2011, 56:21-38.
43. Legates D.R., McCabe G.J. Evaluating the use of "goodness-of-fit" measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research 1999, 35:233-241.
44. Li M., Shao Q., Zhang L., Chiew F.H.S. A new regionalization approach and its application to predict flow duration curve in ungauged basins. Journal of Hydrology 2010, 389:137-145.
45. McKerchar A.I., Henderson R.D. Shifts in flood and low-flow regimes in New Zealand due to interdecadal climate variations. Hydrological Sciences 2003, 48:637-654.
46. McKerchar, A.I., Pearson, C.P., 1989. Flood Frequency in New Zealand. Hydrology Centre Publication No. 20, DSIR Division of Water Sciences, Christchurch, N.Z. 87p.
47. McMillan H.K., Clark M.P., Bowden W.B., Duncan M.J., Woods R.A. Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 1. Diagnostic tests for model structure. Hydrological Processes 2011, 25:511-522.
48. McMillan H.K., Hreinsson E.O., Clark M.P., Singh S.K., Zammit C., Uddstrom M.J. Operational hydrological data assimilation with the recursive ensemble Kalman filter. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2013, 17:21-38.
49. Merz R., Blöschl G. Flood frequency regionalisation - spatial proximity vs. catchment attributes. Journal of Hydrology 2005, 302:283-306.
50. MFE, 2008. Proposed national environmental standard on ecological flows and water levels: discussion document. Wellington, New Zealand: New Zealand Ministry for the Environment. 61p.
51. Milly P.C.D., Betancourt J., Falkenmark M., Hirsch R.M., Kundzewicz Z.W., Lettenmaier D.P., Stouffer R.J. Climate change: stationarity is dead: whither water management?. Science 2008, 319:573-574.
52. Moriasi D.N., Arnold J.G., Van Liew M.W., Bingner R.L., Harmel R.D., Veith T.L. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers 2007, 50:885-900.
53. Mosley, M.P., Pearson, C.P., 1997. Floods and droughts: the New Zealand experience. New Zealand Hydrological Society, Wellington, New Zealand, 206p.
54. Muneepeerakul R., Azaele S., Botter G., Rinaldo A., Rodriguez-Iturbe I. Daily streamflow analysis based on a two scaled gamma pulse model. Water Resources Research 2010, 46:W11546. 10.1029/2010WR009286.
55. Murphy M.A., Evans J.S., Storfer A. Quantifying Bufo boreas connectivity in Yellowstone National Park with landscape genetics. Ecology 2010, 91:252-261.
56. Nash J.E., Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models: Part 1. A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 1970, 10:282-290.
57. New Zealand Government, 2011. National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management 2011. New Zealand.
58. Olden J.D., Poff N.L. Redundancy and the choice of hydrologic indices for characterizing streamflow regimes. River Research and Applications 2003, 19:101-121.
59. Parajka J., Merz R., Blöschl G. A comparison of regionalisation methods for catchment model parameters. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2005, 9:157-171. 10.5194/hess-9-157-2005.
60. Parajka J., Viglione A., Rogger M., Salinas J.L., Sivapalan M., Blöschl G. Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins - Part 1: Runoff-hydrograph studies. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2013, 17:1783-1795. 10.5194/hess-17-1783-2013.
61. Parkin G., O'Donnell G., Ewen J., Bathurst J.C., O'Connell P.E., Lavabre J. Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment. Journal of Hydrology 1996, 175:595-613.
62. Parry O.F., Canziani J.P., van den Linden P.J., Hanson C.E. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK.
63. Pearson C.P. Regional frequency analysis of low flows in New Zealand rivers. Journal of Hydrology (NZ) 1995, 30:53-64.
64. Pearson, C.P., McKerchar, A.I., 1989. Flood estimation - a revised procedure. Transactions of the Institution of Professional Engineers New Zealand 16(2/CE): pp. 59-65.
65. Pechlivanidis I.G., Jackson B.M., McIntyre N.R., Wheater H.S. Catchment scale hydrological modelling: a review of model types, calibration approaches and uncertainty analysis methods in the context of recent developments in technology and applications. Global NEST Journal 2011, 13:193-214.
66. Piñeiro G., Perelman P., Guerschman J.P., Paruelo J.M. How to evaluate models: observed vs. predicted or predicted vs. observed?. Ecological Modelling 2008, 216:316-322.
67. Poff N.L. A hydrogeography of unregulated streams in the United States and an examination of scale-dependence in some hydrological descriptors. Freshwater Biology 1996, 36:71-91.
68. Poff N.L., Allan J.D., Bain M.B., Karr J.R., Prestegaard K.L., Richter B.D., Sparks R.E., Stromberg J.C. The natural flow regime. A paradigm for river conservation and restoration. Bioscience 1997, 47:769-784.
69. Poff N.L., Richter B.D., Arthington A.H., Bunn S.E., Naiman R.J., Kendy E., Acreman M., Apse C., Bledsoe B.P., Freeman M.C., Henriksen J., Jacobson R.B., Kennen J.G., Merritt D.M., O'Keefe J.H., Olden J.D., Rogers K., Tharme R.E., Warner A. The Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA): A new framework for developing regional environmental flow standards. Freshwater Biology 2010, 55:147-170.
70. Poyck S., Hendrikx J., McMillan H., Hreinsson E., Woods R. Combined snow and streamflow modelling to estimate impacts of climate change on water resources in the Clutha River, New Zealand. Journal of Hydrology (New Zealand) 2011, 50:293-312.
71. Rupp D.E., Keim R.F., Ossiander M., Brugnach M., Selker J.S. Time scale and intensity dependency in multiplicative cascades for temporal rainfall disaggregation. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W07409. 10.1029/2008WR007321.
72. Scanlon B.R., Jolly I., Sophocleous M., Zhang L. Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: quantity versus quality. Water Resources Research 2007, 43. 10.1029/2006WR005486.
73. Singh V.P. Watershed modelling. Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology 1995, 1-22. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, Colorado. V.P. Singh (Ed.).
74. Singh V.P., Frevert D. Watershed Models 2006, Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton.
75. Sivapalan M., Takeuchi K., Franks S.W., Gupta V.K., Karambiri H., Lakshmi V., Liang X., McDonnell J.J., Mendiondo E.M., O'Connell P.E., Oki T., Pomeroy J.W., Schertzer D., Uhlenbrook S., Zehe E. IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2003, 48:857-880.
76. Smakhtin V.U. Low flow hydrology: a review. Journal of Hydrology 2001, 240:147-186.
77. Snelder T.H., Biggs B.J.F. Multi-scale river environment classification for water resources management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2002, 38:1225-1240.
78. Snelder T.H., Booker D.J. Natural flow regime classifications are sensitive to definition procedures. River Research and Applications 2012, 10.1002/rra.2581.
79. Snelder T.H., Hughey K.F.D. On the use of an ecological classification to improve water resource planning in New Zealand. Environmental Management 2005, 36:741-756.
80. Snelder T.H., Woods R., Biggs B.J.F. Improved eco-hydrological classification of rivers. River Research and Applications 2005, 21:609-628.
81. Snelder T.H., Booker D.J., Lamouroux N. A method to assess and define environmental flow rules for large jurisdictional regions. International Journal of River Basin Management 2011, 1-13. 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00556.x.
82. Snelder T.H., Rouse H.L., Franklin P.A., Booker D.J., Norton N., Diettrich J. The role of science in setting water resource use limits: a case study from New Zealand. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2013, 10.1080/02626667.2013.793799.
83. Suren A.M., Jowett I.G. Effects of floods versus low flows on invertebrates in a New Zealand gravel-bed river. Freshwater Biology 2006, 51:2207-2227.
84. Tait A., Henderson R.D., Turner R., Zheng X. Thin plate smoothing spline interpolation of daily rainfall for New Zealand using a climatological rainfall surface. International Journal of Climatology 2006, 26:2097-2115.
85. Toebes, C., Palmer, B.R., 1969. Hydrological regions of New Zealand. New Zealand Ministry of Works Miscellaneous Hydrological Publication No. 4. 45p.
86. Viglione A., Parajka J., Rogger M., Salinas J.L., Laaha G., Sivapalan M., Blöschl G. Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins - Part 3: Runoff signatures in Austria. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion 2013, 10(449-485):2013. 10.5194/hessd-10-449-2013.
87. Vogel R.M., Fennessey N.M. Flow duration curves II: a review of applications in water resources planning. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 1995, 31:1029-1039.
88. Vogel R.M., Sieber J., Archfield S.A., Smith M.P., Apse C.D., Huber-Lee A. Relations among storage, yield, and instream flow. Water Resources Research 2007, 43:W05403. 10.1029/2006WR005226.
89. Vörösmarty C.J., McIntyre P., Gessner M.O., Dudgeon D., Prusevich A., Green P., Glidden S., Bunn S.E., Sullivan C.A., Reidy Liermann C., Davies P.M. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature 2010, 467:555-561.
90. Wagener T. Can we model the hydrological impacts of environmental change?. Hydrological Processes 2007, 21:3233-3236.
91. Westerberg I.K., Guerrero J.-L., Younger P.M., Beven K.J., Seibert J., Halldin S., Freer J.E., Xu C.-Y. Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011, 15:2205-2227.
92. Woods R.A., Hendrikx J., Henderson R.D., Tait A.B. Estimating mean flow of New Zealand rivers. Journal of Hydrology (NZ) 2006, 45:95-110.
93. Yadav M., Wagener T., Gupta H.V. Regionalization of constraints on expected watershed response behavior. Advances in Water Resources 2007, 30:1756-1774. 10.1016/j.advwatres.2007.01.005.
94. Yaeger M.A., Coopersmith E., Ye S., Cheng L., Viglione A., Sivapalan M. Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves - Part 4: A synthesis of empirical analysis, process modelling and catchment classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2012, 16:4483-4498.
95. Yokoo Y., Sivapalan M. Towards reconstruction of the flow duration curve: development of a conceptual framework with a physical basis. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011, 15:2805-2819. 10.5194/hess-15-2805-2011.
96. Yu P.S., Yang T.C. Using synthetic flow duration curves for rainfall-runoff model calibration at ungauged sites. Hydrological Processes 2000, 14:117-133.
97. Zemansky G., Hong Y.-S.T., Rose J., Song S.H., Thomas J. Assessing the effects of climate change on water resources: the Waimea Plains. Journal of Hydrology (NZ) 2012, 51:45-62.
98. Zhang L., Hickel K., Dawes W.R., Chiew F.H.S., Western A.W., Briggs P.R. A rational function approach for estimating mean annual evapotranspiration. Water Resources Research 2004, 40. 10.1029/2003WR002710.