Climate, weather, and recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States

Forest Ecology and Management

Volumn 312, Issue , 2014, Pages 239-251

  Creeden, Eric P ^a   Hicke, Jeffrey A ^a   Buotte, Polly C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptive seasonality; Climate suitability modeling; Cold induced mortality; Drought stress; Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta); Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; FORESTRY; LANDFORMS; LOCATION;

ADAPTIVE SEASONALITY; CLIMATE SUITABILITY; CLIMATE SUITABILITY MODELING; COLD-INDUCED MORTALITY; DENDROCTONUS PONDEROSAE; DROUGHT STRESS; LODGEPOLE PINE; LODGEPOLE PINE (PINUS CONTORTUM); MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE; MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE (DENDROCTONUS PONDEROSA); PINUS CONTORTA; SEASONALITY;

DROUGHT;

ADAPTATION; BEETLE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CONIFEROUS FOREST; DROUGHT STRESS; MORTALITY; OVERWINTERING; PEST OUTBREAK; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASONALITY;

DROUGHT; FORESTRY; PINUS CONTORTA; PINUS MUGO;

UNITED STATES;

COLEOPTERA; DENDROCTONUS PONDEROSAE; PINUS CONTORTA; PINUS MUGO;

EID: 84888133876     PISSN: 03781127     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.051     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Amman G.D. Mountain pine beetle brood production in relation to thickness of lodgepole pine phloem. Journal of Economic Entomology 1972, 65:138-140.
2. Amman G.D. Population changes of the mountain pine beetle in relation to elevation. Environmental Entomology 1973, 2:541-547.
3. Amman, G.D., Cole, W.E., 1983. Mountain pine beetle dynamics in lodgepole pine forests. Part II: population dynamics. GTR-INT-145, USDA Forest Service.
4. Aukema B.H., Carroll A.L., Zhu J., Raffa K.F., Sickley T.A., Taylor S.W. Landscape level analysis of mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada: spatiotemporal development and spatial synchrony within the present outbreak. Ecography 2006, 29:427-441.
5. Aukema, B.H., Carroll, A.L., Zheng, Y., Zhu, J., Raffa, K.F., Moore, R.D., Stahl, K., Taylor, S.W., 2008. Movement of outbreak populations of mountain pine beetle: influence of spatiotemporal patterns and climate. Ecography, j.2007.0906-7590.05453.
6. Barnett T.P., Pierce D.W., Hidalgo H.G., Bonfils C., Santer B.D., Das T., Bala G., Wood A.W., Nozawa T., Mirin A.A., Cayan D.R., Dettinger M.D. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States. Science 2008, 319:1080-1083.
7. Beal J.A. Relation between tree growth and outbreaks of the Black Hills beetle. Journal of Forestry 1943, 41:359-366.
8. Bentz B.J., Mullins D.E. Ecology of mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) cold hardening in the intermountain West. Environmental Entomology 1999, 28:577-587.
9. Bentz B.J., Logan J.A., Amman G.D. Temperature-dependent development of mountain pine beetle and simulation of its phenology. Canadian Entomologist 1991, 123:1083-1094.
10. Bentz B.J., Logan J.A., Vandygriff J.C. Latitudinal variation in Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) development time and adult size. Canadian Entomologist 2001, 133:375-387.
11. Bentz B.J., Régnière J., Fettig C.J., Hansen E.M., Hayes J.L., Hicke J.A., Kelsey R.G., Negrón J.F., Seybold S.J. Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. BioScience 2010, 60:602-613.
12. Bentz B.J., Bracewell R.R., Mock K.E., Pfrender M.E. Genetic architecture and phenotypic plasticity of thermally-regulated traits in an eruptive species, Dendroctonus ponderosae. Evolutionary Ecology 2011, 25:1269-1288.
13. Bentz, B.J., Campbell, E., Gibson, K., Kegley, S., Logan, J., Six, D., 2011b. Mountain pine beetle in high-elevation five-needle white pine ecosystems. In: Keane, R.E., Tomback, D.F., Murray, M.P., Smith, C.M. (Eds.), The future of high-elevation, five-needle white pines in Western North America: Proceedings of the High Five Symposium. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins CO., pp. 78-84.
14. Berg E.E., Henry J.D., Fastie C.L., De Volder A.D., Matsuoka S.M. Spruce beetle outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, and Kluane National Park and Reserve, Yukon Territory: relationship to summer temperatures and regional differences in disturbance regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 2006, 227:219-232.
15. Boone C.K., Aukema B.H., Bohlmann J., Carroll A.L., Raffa K.F. Efficacy of tree defense physiology varies with bark beetle population density: a basis for positive feedback in eruptive species. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 2011, 41:1174-1188.
16. Bradley R.S., Keimig F.T., Diaz H.F. Projected temperature changes along the American cordillera and the planned GCOS network. Geophysical Research Letters 2004, 31.
17. Breshears D.D., Cobb N.S., Rich P.M., Price K.P., Allen C.D., Balice R.G., Romme W.H., Kastens J.H., Floyd M.L., Belnap J., Anderson J.J., Myers O.B., Meyer C.W. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2005, 102:15144-15148.
18. Carroll A.L., Régnière J., Taylor S.W., Safranyik L. Implications of climate change on natural disturbance in western pine forests: range expansion by the mountain pine beetle. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts 2004, 89:84.
19. Carroll A.L., Taylor S.W., Régnière J., Safranyik L. Effects of climate change on range expansion by the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia. Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium: Challenges and Solutions 2004, 223-232. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Kelowna, BC. T. Shore, J.E. Brooks, J.E. Stone (Eds.).
20. Chapman T.B., Veblen T.T., Schoennagel T. Spatiotemporal patterns of mountain pine beetle activity in the southern Rocky Mountains. Ecology 2012, 93:2175-2185.
21. Christensen J.H., Hewitson B., Busuioc A., Chen A., Gao X., Held I., Jones R., Kolli R.K., Kwon W.T., Laprise R., Magaña Rueda V., Mearns L., Menéndez C.G., Räisänen J., Rinke A., Sarr A., Whetton P. Regional Climate Projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
22. Cook E.R., Woodhouse C.A., Eakin C.M., Meko D.M., Stahle D.W. Long-term aridity changes in the Western United States. Science 2004, 306:1015-1018.
23. Crookston, N.L., 1977. Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Colepotera: Scolytidae)) outbreaks in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug.) and application of a climatic hazard rating to the Pacific Northwest. University of Idaho, Moscow, ID. p. 91.
24. Daly C., Neilson R.P., Phillips D.L. A statistical topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous Terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology 1994, 33:140-158.
25. Evangelista P.H., Kumar S., Stohlgren T.J., Young N.E. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US. Forest Ecology and Management 2011, 262:307-316.
26. Evenden J.C., Gibson A.L. A destructive infestation in lodgepole pine stands by the mountain pine beetle. Journal of Forestry 1940, 38:271-275.
27. Gavin D.G., Hu F.S. Spatial variation of climatic and non-climatic controls on species distribution: the range limit of Tsuga heterophylla. Journal of Biogeography 2006, 33:1384-1396.
28. Hamlet A.F., Lettenmaier D.P. Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2005, 6:330-336.
29. Hansen J., Sato M., Ruedy R. Perception of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2012, 109:E2415-E2423.
30. Hebertson E.G., Jenkins M.J. Climate factors associate with historical spruce beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) outbreaks in Utah and Colorado. Environmental Entomology 2008, 37:281-292.
31. Hicke J.A., Jenkins J.C. Mapping lodgepole pine stand structure susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack across the western United States. Forest Ecology and Management 2008, 225:1536-1547.
32. Hicke J.A., Logan J.A., Powell J., Ojima D.S. Changing temperatures influence suitability for modeled mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 2006, 111:G02019. 02010.01029/02005JG000101.
33. Hopkins A.D. Practical Information On The Scolytid Beetles Of North American Forests. I. Barkbeetles Of The Genus Dendroctonus 1909, USDA Bureau of Entomology, Washington, DC.
34. Hopping G.R., Mathers W.G. Observations on outbreaks and control of the mountain pine beetle in the lodgepole pine stands of western Canada. The Forestry Chronicle 1945, 21:98-108.
35. IPCC Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
36. Jewett J.T., Lawrence R.L., Marshall L.A., Gessler P.E., Powell S.L., Savage S.L. Spatiotemporal relationships between climate and whitebark pine mortality in the greater yellowstone ecosystem. Forest Science 2011, 57:320-335.
37. Kangas R.S., Brown T.J. Characteristics of US drought and pluvials from a high-resolution spatial dataset. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27:1303-1325.
38. Kipfmueller, K.F., Swetnam, T.W., Morgan, P., 2002. Climate and Mountain Pine Beetle-Induced Tree Mortality in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area. Final Report to the USFS Research Joint Venture Agreement #RMRS-99611-RJVA.
39. Lessard G., Hildebrand D., Haneman D.E. Forest pest conditions in the Rocky Mountain Regions 1986 1987, Lakewood, CO.
40. Liang X., Lettenmaier D.P., Wood E.F., Burges S.J. A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs. Journal of Geophysical Research 1994, 99:14415-14428.
41. Littell J.S., Peterson D.L., Tjoelker M. Douglas-fir growth in mountain ecosystems: water limits tree growth from stand to region. Ecological Monographs 2008, 78:349-368.
42. Little, E.L., 1971a. Atlas of United States trees, conifers and important hardwoods, vol. 1. Miscellaneous Pubication 1146, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Washington, DC.
43. Little, E.L.J., 1971b. Atlas of United States trees, conifers and important hardwoods, vol. 1. US Department of Agriculture Miscellaneous Publication 1146, Washington, DC.
44. Logan J.A., Bentz B.J. Model analysis of mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) seasonality. Environmental Entomology 1999, 28:924-934.
45. Logan J.A., Powell J.A. Ghost forests, global warming and the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). American Entomologist 2001, 47:160-173.
46. Logan, J.A., Powell, J.A., 2009. Ecological consequences of climate change altered forest insect disturbance regimes. In: Wagner, F.H. (Ed.), Climate change in western North America: evidence and environmental effects. University of Utah Press, pp. 98-109.
47. Logan J.A., Macfarlane W.W., Willcox L. Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Ecological Applications 2010, 20:895-902.
48. Man, G., 2010. Major forest insect and disease conditions in the United States: 2009 update. FS-952.
49. McDowell N.G., Beerling D.J., Breshears D.D., Fisher R.A., Raffa K.F., Stitt M. The interdependence of mechanisms underlying climate-driven vegetation mortality. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2011, 26:523-532.
50. Meddens A.J.H., Hicke J.A., Ferguson C.A. Spatiotemporal patterns of observed bark beetle-caused tree mortality in British Columbia and the western United States. Ecological Applications 2012, 22:1876-1891.
51. Millar C.I., Westfall R.D., Delany D.L. Response of high-elevation limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to multiyear droughts and 20th-century warming, Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 2007, 37:2508-2520.
52. Millar C.I., Westfall R.D., Delany D.L., Bokach M.J., Flint A.L., Flint L.E. Forest mortality in high-elevation whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of eastern California, USA; influence of environmental context, bark beetles, climatic water deficit, and warming. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 2012, 42:749-765.
53. Mitchell R.G., Waring R.H., Pitman G.B. Thinning lodgepole pine increases tree vigor and resistance to mountain pine beetle. Forest Science 1983, 29:204-211.
54. Mock K.E., Bentz B.J., O'Neill E.M., Chong J.P., Orwin J., Pfrender M.E. Landscape-scale genetic variation in a forest outbreak species, the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae). Molecular Ecology 2007, 16:553-568.
55. Mote P.W., Salathé E.P. Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climate Change 2010, 102:29-50.
56. Mote P.W., Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2005, 86:39-49.
57. Oneil, E.E., 2006. Developing stand density thresholds to address mountain pine beetle susceptibility in eastern Washington forests. University of Washington, Seattle, WA. p. 99.
58. Peltonen M., Liebhold A.M., Bjørnstad O.N., Williams D.W. Spatial synchrony in forest insect outbreaks: roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal. Ecology 2002, 83:3120-3129.
59. Powell, J.A., 1969. Historical study of the major mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western Canada to seasonal weather. Information, Report A-X-23.
60. Powell J.A., Bentz B.J. Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect. Landscape Ecology 2009, 24:657-672.
61. Preisler H.K., Hicke J.A., Ager A.A., Hayes J.L. Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon. Ecology 2012, 93:2421-2434.
62. Raffa K.F., Berryman A.A. The role of host plant resistance in the colonization behavior and ecology of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Ecological Monographs 1983, 53:27-49.
63. Raffa K.F., Aukema B.H., Bentz B.J., Carroll A.L., Hicke J.A., Turner M.G., Romme W.H. Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: the dynamics of bark beetle eruptions. BioScience 2008, 58:501-517.
64. Régnière J., Bentz B. Modeling cold tolerance in the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae. Journal of Insect Physiology 2007, 53:559-572.
65. Régnière, J., Cooke, B., Bergeron, V., 1996. BioSIM: a computer-based decision support tool for seasonal planning of pest management activities; User's Manual. Information Report LAU-X-155, Canadian Forest Service.
66. Safranyik L. Effects of climate and weather on mountain pine beetle populations. Symposium on the Theory and Management of Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests 1978, 77-84. University of Idaho Forest, Wildlife and Range Experiment Station, Moscow, ID. A.A. Berryman, G.D. Amman, R.W. Stark (Eds.).
67. Safranyik L., Carroll A.L. The biology and epidemiology of the mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine forests. The mountain pine beetle: a synthesis of biology, management, and impacts on lodgepole pine 2006, 3-66. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, British Columbia. L. Safranyik, W.R. Wilson (Eds.).
68. Safranyik L., Linton D.A. Unseasonably low fall and winter temperatures affecting mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle populations and damage in the British Columbia Chilcotin Region. Journal of the Entomological Society of British Columbia 1991, 88:17-21.
69. Safranyik L., Shrimpton D.M., Whitney H.S. An interpretation of the interaction between lodgepole pine, the mountain pine beetle and its associated blue stain fungi in western Canada. Management of lodgepole pine ecosystems 1975, 406-428. Washington State University Cooperative Extension Service, Pullman, WA. D.M. Baumgartner (Ed.).
70. Safranyik L., Carroll A.L., Regniere J., Langor D.W., Riel W.G., Shore T.L., Peter B., Cooke B.J., Nealis V.G., Taylor S.W. Potential for range expansion of mountain pine beetle into the boreal forest of North America. Canadian Entomologist 2010, 142:415-442.
71. Sambaraju K.R., Carroll A.L., Zhu J., Stahl K., Moore R.D., Aukema B.H. Climate change could alter the distribution of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western Canada. Ecography 2012, 35:211-223.
72. Sherriff R.L., Berg E.E., Miller A.E. Climate variability and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks in south-central and southwest Alaska. Ecology 2011, 92:1459-1470.
73. Shore, T.L., Safranyik, L., 1992. Susceptibility and risk rating systems for the mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine stands. BC-X-336, Forestry Canada.
74. Stahl K., Moore R.D., McKendry I.G. Climatology of winter cold spells in relation to mountain pine beetle mortality in British Columbia, Canada. Climate Research 2006, 32:13-23.
75. Stephenson N.L. Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales. Journal of Biogeography 1998, 25:855-870.
76. Thomson A.J. Climate indices and mountain pine beetle-killing temperatures. The Forestry Chronicle 2009, 85:105-109.
77. Thomson A.J., Shrimpton D.M. Weather associated with the start of mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 1984, 14:255-258.
78. USDA Forest pest conditions in the Pacific Northwest 1976 1977, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, pp. 14.
79. Wells N., Goddard S., Hayes M.J. A self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Climate 2004, 17:2335-2351.
80. Williams, A.P., Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C.A., Meko, D.M., Swetnam, T.W., Rauscher, S.A., Seager, R., Grissino-Mayer, H.D., Dean, J.S., Cook, E.R., Gangodagamage, C., Cai, M., McDowell, N.G., 2012. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nature Clim. Change advance online publication.
81. Willmott C.J., Rowe C.M., Mintz Y. Climatology of the terrestrial seasonal water cycle. Journal of Climatology 1985, 5.
82. Wygant, N.D., 1940. Effects of low temperature on the Black Hills beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). State College of New York, Syracuse, NY. p. 57.