Modelling the spreading rate of controlled communicable epidemics through an entropy-based thermodynamic model

Science China: Physics, Mechanics and Astronomy

Volumn 56, Issue 11, 2013, Pages 2143-2150

  Wang, Wenbin ^a   Wu, Ziniu ^a   Wang, Chunfeng ^a   Hu, Ruifeng ^b  

^a TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b XIDIAN UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

entropy; epidemics; inflexion point

Indexed keywords

ENTROPY PRODUCTION; EPIDEMICS; INFLEXION POINT; LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; REASONABLE ACCURACY; THERMODYNAMIC APPROACHES; THERMODYNAMIC MODEL; TIME-DEPENDENT COEFFICIENTS;

ENTROPY;

EPIDEMIOLOGY;

EID: 84888081651     PISSN: 16747348     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11433-013-5321-0     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Kamps-Hoffmann. SARS References-05/2003[OL]. Paris: Flying Publishers, 2003
2. Ma Z, Zhou Y, Wu J. Modeling and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing, 2009
3. Bauch C T, Lloyd-Smith J O, Coffee M P, et al. Dynamically modeling SARS and other newly emerging respiratory illnesses: past, present, and future. Epidemiology, 2005, 16: 791-801
4. Bian L. Spatial approaches to modeling dispersion of communicable diseases - A review. Trans GIS, 2012, 17: 1-17
5. Donnelly C A, Ghani A C, Leung G M, et al. Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. The Lancet, 2003, 361: 1761-1766
6. Riley S, Fraster C, Donnelly C A, et al. Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science, 2003, 300: 1961-1966
7. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science, 2003, 300: 1966-1970
8. Dye C, Gay N. Modelling the SARS epidemic. Science, 2003, 300: 1884-1885
9. Jia N, Tsui L. Epidemic modelling using Sars as a case study. N Am Actuarial J, 2005, 9: 28-42
10. Watts D J, Muhamad R, Medina D C, et al. Multiscale, resurgent epidemics in a hierarchical metapopulation model. Proc Natl Acad Sci, 2005, 102: 11157-11162
11. Zhang Z B. The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model. Ecol Model, 2007, 204: 420-426
12. Kenah E, Robins J M. Second look at the spread of epidemics on networks. Phys Rev E, 2007, 76: 036113
13. Bian L, Liebner D. A network model for dispersion of communicable diseases. Trans GIS, 2007, 11: 155-173
14. Yu X L, Wang X Y, Zhang D M, et al. Mathematical expressions for epidemics and immunization in small-world networks. Physica A, 2008, 387: 1421-1430
15. Dybiec B. SIR model of epidemic spread w ith accumulated exposure. The Eur Phys J B, 2009, 67: 377-383
16. Dybiec B, Kleczkowski A, Gilligan C A. Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions. J R Soc Interface, 2009, 6: 941-950
17. Anderson R M, May R M. Infectious Diseases of Humans. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991
18. Mollison D. Epidemic Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995
19. Edelstein-Keshet L. Mathematical Models in Biology. New York: Random House, 1988
20. Wu Z N. Prediction of the size distribution of secondary ejected droplets by crown splashing of droplets impinging on a solid wall. Probabilist Eng Mech, 2003, 18: 241-249
21. Brauer F, Castillo-Chavez C. Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology. New York: Springer, 2001
22. Ahmed E, Agiza H N. On modeling epidemics, including latency, incubation and variable susceptibility. Physica A, 1998, 253: 347-352
23. Greenhalgh D, Das P. Modeling epidemics with variable contact rates. Theor Population Biology, 1995, 47: 129-179
24. Weber A, Weber M, Milligan P. Modelling epidemics caused by respiratory syncytial virus. Mathematical Biosciences, 2001, 172: 99-113
25. Pybus O G, Charleston M A, Gupta S, et al. The epidemic behavior of the hepatitis C virus. Science, 2001, 292: 2323-2325
26. Anderson J D. Hypersonic and High Temperature Gas Dynamics. Virginia: AIAA Education Series, 2006
27. Ziegler H. An Introduction to Thermomechanics. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publisher, 1983
28. Gao R B, Cao B, Hu Y W, et al. Human infection with a novel avianorigin influenza a (H7N9) virus. N Eng J Med, 2013, 368: 1888-1897
29. Wen Y M, Klenk H D. H7N9 avian influenza virus - search and research. Emerging Microbes Infections, 2013, 2: e18
30. She Z S. A New Framework for Complex System. Beijing: Science Presss, 2012