Climate-change impacts on ecological systems: Introduction to a US assessment

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Volumn 11, Issue 9, 2013, Pages 456-464

  Grimm, Nancy B ^a   Staudinger, Michelle D ^b,c   Staudt, Amanda ^d   Carter, Shawn L ^e   Chapin III, F Stuart ^f   Kareiva, Peter ^g   Ruckelshaus, Mary ^h   Stein, Bruce A ^d  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS   (United States)

^d National Wildlife Federation   (United States)

^e U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

^g THE NATURE CONSERVANCY   (United States)

^h STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS; PRIVATE SECTOR; RISK ASSESSMENT;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84887158864     PISSN: 15409295     EISSN: 15409309     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/120310     Document Type: Review

References (60)

1. Barnosky AD, Matzke N, Tomiya S, et al. 2011. Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature 471: 51-57.
2. Bierbaum R, Smith JB, Lee A, et al. 2013. A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the US: more than before, but less than needed. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 18: 361-406.
3. Brooks PD, Grogan P, Templer PH, et al. 2011. Carbon and nitrogen cycling in snow-covered environments. Geography Compass 5: 682-99.
4. Brown C, Ghile Y, Laverty M, and Li K. 2012. Decision scaling: linking bottom-up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res 48: W09537.
5. Camacho AE, Doremus H, McLachlan JS, and Minteer BA. 2010. Reassessing conservation goals in a changing climate. Issue Sci Technol 26: 21-26.
6. Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Sarmiento JL, et al. 2009. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fish 10: 235-51.
7. Clark WC, Mitchell RB, and Cash DW. 2006. Evaluating the influence of global environmental assessments. In: Mitchell RB, Clark WC, Cash DW, and Dickson NM (Eds). Global environmental assessments: information and influence. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
8. Crimmins TM, Crimmins MA, and Bertelsen CD. 2010. Complex responses to climate drivers in onset of spring flowering across a semi-arid elevation gradient. J Ecol 98: 1042-51.
9. Crimmins SM, Dobrowski SZ, Greenberg JA, et al. 2011. Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations. Science 331: 324-27.
10. Cross MS, Zavaleta ES, Bachelet D, et al. 2012. The adaptation for conservation targets (ACT) framework: a tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management. Environ Manage 50: 341-51.
11. Crutzen PJ. 2002. Geology of mankind. Nature 415: 23.
12. Diffenbaugh NS and Field CB. 2013. Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions. Science 341: 486-92.
13. Donnelly A, Caffarra A, and O'Neill BF. 2011. A review of climate- driven mismatches between interdependent phenophases in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Int J Biometeorol 55: 805-17.
14. Fargione JE, Cooper TR, Flaspohler DJ, et al. 2009. Bioenergy and wildlife: threats and opportunities for grassland conservation. BioScience 59: 767-77.
15. GCRA (Global Change Research Act). 1990. Public Law 101-606(11/16/90) 104 Stat 3096-3104.
16. Grimm NB, Chapin III FS, Bierwagen B, et al. 2013. The impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Front Ecol Environ 11: 474-82.
17. Hare JA, Alexander MA, Fogarty MJ, et al. 2010. Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate-population model. Ecol Appl 20: 452-64.
18. Hellmann JJ, Meretsky VJ, and McLachlan JS. 2011. Strategies for conserving biodiversity under a changing climate. In: Hannah L (Ed). Saving a million species: extinction risk from climate change. Washington, DC: Island Press.
19. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
20. Jones HP, Hole DG, and Zavaleta ES. 2012. Harnessing nature to help people adapt to climate change. Nature Climate Change 2: 504-09.
21. Jönsson AM, Appelberg G, Harding S, and Bärring L. 2009. Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. Glob Change Biol 15: 486-99.
22. Karl TR, Melillo JM, and Peterson TC. 2009. Global climate change impacts in the US. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
23. Lambert E, Hunter C, Pierce GJ, and MacLeod CD. 2010. Sustainable whale-watching tourism and climate change: towards a framework of resilience. J Sustain Tour 18: 409-27.
24. Larigauderie A and Mooney HA. 2010. The intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services: moving a step closer to an IPCC-like mechanism for biodiversity. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 2: 9-14.
25. Lawler JJ. 2009. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning. Ann NY Acad Sci 1162: 79-98.
26. Littell JS, McKenzie D, Peterson DL, and Westerling AL. 2009. Climate and wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecol Appl 19: 1003-21.
27. MA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment). 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being: biodiversity synthesis. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
28. Mace GM, Norris K, and Fitter AH. 2012. Biodiversity and ecosystem services: a multilayered relationship. Trends Ecol Evol 27: 19-26.
29. McKelvey KS, Copeland JP, Schwartz MK, et al. 2011. Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors. Ecol Appl 21: 2882-97.
30. Mertz O, Halsnæs K, Olesen JE, and Rasmussen K. 2009. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries. Environ Manage 43: 743-52.
31. Mills SL, Zimova M, Oyler J, et al. 2013. Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration. P Natl Acad Sci USA 110: 7360-65.
32. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, et al. 2008. Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319: 573-57.
33. NAST (National Assessment Synthesis Team). 2001. Climate change impacts on the US: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report for the US Global Change Research Program. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
34. NCA (National Climate Assessment). 2011a. National Climate Assessment (NCA) Strategy - Summary. www.globalchange.gov/images/NCA/nca-summary-strategy- 5-20-11.pdf. Viewed 4 Oct 2013.
35. NCA (National Climate Assessment). 2011b. National Climate Assessment (NCA) Engagement Strategy. www.globalchange.gov/images/NCA/nca-engagement- strategy-5-20-11.pdf. Viewed 4 Oct 2013.
36. Nelson E, Kareiva P, Ruckelshaus M, et al. 2013. Key ecosystem services that are being disrupted by climate change in the US. Front Ecol Environ 11: 483-93.
37. NPS (National Park Service). 2011. Las Conchas Post-Fire Response Plan. www.nps.gov/fire/. Viewed 17 Oct 2013.
38. NRC National Research Council). 2007. Analysis of global change assessments: lessons learned. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
39. Nye JA, Link JS, Hare JA, and Overholtz WJ. 2009. Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast US continental shelf. Mar Ecol-Prog Ser 393: 111-29.
40. Parmesan C, Duarte C, Poloczanska E, et al. 2011. Overstretching attribution. Nature Climate Change 1: 2-4.
41. PCAST (President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology). 2011. Sustaining environmental capital: protecting society and the economy. www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ostp/pcast/docsreports. Viewed 4 Oct 2013.
42. Peterson DL, Millar CI, Joyce LA, et al. 2011. Responding to climate change in national forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options. Portland, OR: USDA, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-855.
43. Poff NL, Pyne MI, Bledsoe BP, et al. 2010. Developing linkages between species traits and multiscaled environmental variation to explore vulnerability of stream benthic communities to climate change. J N Am Benthol Soc 29: 1441-58.
44. Poff NL and Zimmerman JKH. 2010. Ecological responses to altered flow regimes: a literature review to inform the science and management of environmental flows. Freshwater Biol 55: 194-205.
45. Raffa KF, Aukema BH, Bentz BJ, et al. 2008. Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: the dynamics of bark beetle eruptions. BioScience 58: 501-17.
46. Rode KD, Amstrup SC, and Regehr EV. 2010. Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline. Ecol Appl 20: 768-82.
47. Schoennagel T, Veblen TT, Negron JF, and Smith JM. 2012. Effects of mountain pine beetle on fuels and expected fire behavior in lodgepole pine forests, Colorado, USA. PLoS ONE 7: e30002.
48. Senthilkumar S, Basso B, Kravchenko AN, and Robertson GP. 2009. Contemporary evidence of soil carbon loss in the US Corn Belt. Soil Sci Soc Am J 73: 2078-86.
49. Shaw WD and Loomis JB. 2008. Frameworks for analyzing the economic effects of climate change on outdoor recreation. Climate Res 36: 259-69.
50. Smith CR, Grange LJ, Honi DL, et al. 2012. A large population of king crabs in Palmer Deep on the west Antarctic Peninsula shelf and potential invasive impacts. P Roy Soc B-Biol Sci 279: 1017-26.
51. Staudinger MD, Grimm NB, Staudt A, et al. 2012. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Cooperative Report to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. http://assessment.globalchange.gov. Viewed 4 Oct 2013.
52. Staudinger MD, Carter SL, Cross MS, et al. 2013. Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US. Front Ecol Environ 11: 465-73.
53. Staudt A, Leidner AK, Howard J, et al. 2013. The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 11: 494-501.
54. Stein BA and Shaw MR. 2013. Biodiversity conservation for a climate- altered future. In: Moser S and Boykoff M (Eds). Successful adaptation: linking science and practice in managing climate change impacts. New York, NY: Rutledge Press.
55. Stein BA, Staudt A, Cross MS, et al. 2013. Preparing for and managing change: climate adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 11: 502-10.
56. UK NEA (UK National Ecosystem Assessment). 2011. The UK National Ecosystem Assessment Technical Report. Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC. http://uknea.unep-wcmc.org/Resources/tabid/82/Default.aspx. Viewed 4 Oct 2013.
57. UNEP and IOC-UNESCO (UN Environment Programme and Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission-UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization). 2009. An assessment of assessments: findings of the group of experts. Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP.
58. Vignola R, Locatelli B, Martinez C, and Imbach P. 2009. Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change: what role for policy-makers, society and scientists? Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 14: 691-96.
59. Wilby RL. 2011. Wells of wisdom. Nature Climate Change 1: 302-03.
60. Williams AP, Allen CD, Millar CI, et al. 2010. Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States. P Natl Acad Sci USA 107: 21289-94.