Predictability and suppression of extreme events in a chaotic system

Physical Review Letters

Volumn 111, Issue 19, 2013, Pages

  De S Cavalcante, Hugo L D ^a   Oriá, Marcos ^a   Sornette, Didier ^b   Ott, Edward ^c   Gauthier, Daniel J ^d  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF PARAÍBA   (Brazil)

^b ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^c The Institute for Research in Electronics and Applied Physics   (United States)

^d DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CATASTROPHIC EVENT; COUPLED CHAOTIC OSCILLATORS; EXTREME EVENTS; POWER-LAW; REAL TIME; SCALE-FREE;

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS;

CHAOTIC SYSTEMS;

EID: 84887105991     PISSN: 00319007     EISSN: 10797114     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.198701     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. J. Nott, Extreme Events: A Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 2006).
2. L. K. Comfort, A. Boin, and C. C. Demchak, Designing Resilience: Preparing for Extreme Events (University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh, 2010).
3. C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, and Q. Dahe, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 2012).
4. A. D. Barnosky, Nature (London) 486, 52 (2012). NATUAS 0028-0836 10.1038/nature11018
5. K. Schwab, Global Risks (World Economic Forum, Geneva, 2013), 8th ed.
6. J. B. Rundle, D. L. Turcotte, and W. Klein, in Reduction and Predictability of Natural Disasters, Studies in the Science of Complexity Vol. XXV (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1996).
7. D. Sornette, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, 2522 (2002). PNASA6 0027-8424 10.1073/pnas.012582199 (Pubitemid 34165062)
8. S. Albeverio, V. Jentsch, and H. Kantz, Extreme Events in Nature and Society, The Frontiers Collection Vol. XVI (Springer, New York, 2005).
9. M. Scheffer, Science 338, 344 (2012). SCIEAS 0036-8075 10.1126/science.1225244
10. R. Biggs, S. R. Carpenter, and W. A. Brock, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 826 (2009). PNASA6 0027-8424 10.1073/pnas.0811729106
11. L. Dai, D. Vorselen, K. S. Korolev, and J. Gore, Science 336, 1175 (2012). SCIEAS 0036-8075 10.1126/science.1219805
12. A. Krawiecki, J. A. Holyst, and D. Helbing, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 158701 (2002). PRLTAO 0031-9007 10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.158701
13. D. Sornette, Intl. J. Terraspace Sci. Eng. 2, 1 (2009).
14. N. N. Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House, New York, 2007).
15. P. Bak, How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality (Springer, New York, 1996).
16. P. Embrechts, C. Klüppelberg, and T. Mikosch, Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance (Springer, Heidelberg, 2011), corrected ed.
17. F. H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (Houghton Mifflin, Boston, 1921).
18. D. Sornette and G. Ouillon, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 205, 1 (2012). 1951-6355 10.1140/epjst/e2012-01559-5
19. J. Schmittbuhl, J.-P. Vilotte, and S. Roux, Europhys. Lett. 21, 375 (1993). EULEEJ 0295-5075 10.1209/0295-5075/21/3/020
20. P. Gong, A. R. Nikolaev, and C. van Leeuwen, Phys. Rev. E 76, 011904 (2007). PLEEE8 1539-3755 10.1103/PhysRevE.76.011904 (Pubitemid 47112609)
21. H. Takayasu, H. Miura, T. Hirabayashi, and K. Hamada, Physica (Amsterdam) 184A, 127 (1992). PHYADX 0378-4371 10.1016/0378-4371(92)90161-I
22. E. Ott, Chaos in Dynamical Systems (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2002), 2nd ed.
23. J. C. Sommerer and E. Ott, Nature (London) 365, 138 (1993). NATUAS 0028-0836 10.1038/365138a0
24. E. Mosekilde, D. Postnov, and Y. Maistrenko, Chaotic Synchronization: Applications to Living Systems, Nonlinear Science Vol. 42 (World Scientific, Singapore, 2002).
25. P. Ashwin, J. Buescu, and I. Stewart, Phys. Lett. A 193, 126 (1994). PYLAAG 0375-9601 10.1016/0375-9601(94)90947-4
26. See Supplemental Material at http://link.aps.org/supplemental/10.1103/ PhysRevLett.111.198701 for additional figures and details.
27. D. J. Gauthier and J. C. Bienfang, Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 1751 (1996). PRLTAO 0031-9007 10.1103/PhysRevLett.77.1751
28. J. F. Heagy, T. L. Carroll, and L. M. Pecora, Phys. Rev. E 52, R1253 (1995). PLEEE8 1063-651X 10.1103/PhysRevE.52.R1253
29. S. C. Venkataramani, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, D. J. Gauthier, and J. C. Bienfang, Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 5361 (1996). PRLTAO 0031-9007 10.1103/PhysRevLett.77.5361 (Pubitemid 40620101)
30. T. C. Newell, P. M. Alsing, A. Gavrielides, and V. Kovanis, Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1647 (1994). PRLTAO 0031-9007 10.1103/PhysRevLett.72.1647