The Predictive Accuracy of Risk Factors and Frameworks

Assessment and Treatment of Sex Offenders: A Handbook

Volumn , Issue , 2012, Pages 53-74

  Craig, Leam A ^a,b,c   Beech, Anthony R ^a   Harkins, Leigh ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^b FORENSIC PSYCHOLOGY PRACTICE LTD   (United Kingdom)

^c NHS Adult Mental Health Trusts ^*  (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Predictive accuracy; Risk assessment; Risk factors; Risk frameworks; Sexual offending

Indexed keywords

EID: 84886462964     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1002/9780470714362.ch4     Document Type: Chapter

References (80)

1. Andrews, D.A. & Bonta, J. (2006). The psychology of criminal conduct (4th edn). Cincinnati, OH: Anderson Publishing Company.
2. Barbaree, H.E., Seto, M.C., Langton, C.M.&Peacock, E.J. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 490-521.
3. Bartosh, D.L., Garby, T., Lewis, D. & Gray, S. (2003). Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 47, 422-438.
4. Beech, A.R., Erikson, M., Friendship, C. & Ditchfield, J. (2001). A six year follow-up of men going through representative probation-based sex offender treatment programmes. Home Office Research Findings, 144. Available electronically from: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/r144.pdf.
5. Beech, A.R., Erikson, M., Friendship, C. & Hanson, R.K. (2002). Static and dynamic predictors of reconviction. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 153-165.
6. Beech, A.R., Fisher, D. & Thornton, D. (2003). Risk assessment of sex offenders. Professional Psychology, Research and Practice, 34, 339-352.
7. Beech, A.R. & Ward, T. (2004). The integration of etiology and risk in sexual offenders: A theoretical framework. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 10, 31-63.
8. Bélanger, N. & Earls, C. (1996). Sex offender recidivism prediction. Forum on Corrections Research, 8, 2, 22-24.
9. Bengtson, S. & Långström, N. (2007). Unguided clinical and actuarial assessment of re-offending risk:A direct comparison with sex offenders in Denmark. Sexual Abuse:AJournal of Research and Treatment, 19, 135-154.
10. Boer, D.P., Hart, S.D., Kropp, P.R. & Webster, C.D. (1997). Manual for the Sexual Violence Risk-20. Obtainable from the Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada, V5 1S6. Website: www.sfu.ca/psychology/groups/mhlpi.
11. Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. 2nd edition. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
12. Craig, L.A., Beech, A.R. & Browne, K.D. (2006). A cross-validation of the Risk Matrix-2000 Scales. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21, 1-22.
13. Craig, L.A., Browne, K.D., Beech, A.R. & Stringer, I. (2004a). Personality characteristics associated with reconviction in sexual and violent offenders. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology, 15, 532-551.
14. Craig, L.A., Browne, K.D., Beech, A.R. & Stringer, I. (2006a). Psychosexual characteristics of sexual offenders and the relationship to sexual reconviction. Psychology, Crime and Law, 12, 231-244.
15. Craig, L.A., Browne, K.D., Beech, A.R. & Stringer, I. (2006b). Differences in personality and risk characteristics in sexual, violent and general offenders. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 16, 183-194.
16. Craig, L.A., Browne, K.D., Hogue, T.E. & Stringer, I. (2004b). New directions in assessing risk in sexual offenders. In G. Macpherson & J. Lawrence (Eds), Clinical risk assessment and risk management: Issues in Forensic Psychology (pp. 81-99). Leicester: The British Psychological Society Press.
17. Craig, L.A., Browne, K.D. & Stringer, I. (2003). Risk scales and factors predictive of sexual offence recidivism. Trauma, Violence and Abuse: A Review Journal, 4, 45-67.
18. Craig, L.A., Browne, K.D. & Stringer, I. (2004). Comparing sex offender risk assessment measures on a UK sample. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 48, 7-27.
19. Craig, L.A., Browne, K.D., Stringer, I. & Beech, A. (2004c). Limitations in actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: A methodological note. British Journal of Forensic Practice, 1, 16-32.
20. Craig, L.A. & Hutchinson, R. (2005). Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: Risk, recidivism and treatment. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 11, 289-304.
21. Craig, L.A., Thornton, D., Beech, A.R. & Browne, K.D. (2007). The relationship of statistical and psychological risk markers to sexual reconviction. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 314-329.
22. Craissati, J. (2003). Adjusting standard assessment and treatment models to meet the needs of sex offenders in the community. Paper presented at the 12th Annual Conference of the Division of Forensic Psychology, 26-28 March. Churchill College, Cambridge, UK.
23. Craissati, J. & Beech, A.R. (2006). The role of key developmental variables in identifying sex offenders likely to fail in the community: An enhanced risk prediction model. Child Abuse and Neglect, 30, 327-339.
24. Dingwall, R. (1989). Some problems about predicting child abuse and neglect, in O. Stevenson (Ed.), Child abuse: Public policy and professional practice (pp. 28-53). Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf.
25. Epperson, D.L. (2000). Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised. Sinclair Seminars Conference on Sex Offender Re-Offense Risk Prediction in Madison, Wisconsin. Videotape available from: www.sinclairseminars.com.
26. Epperson, D.L., Kaul, J.D. & Hesselton, D. (1998). Final report on the development of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). Paper presented at the 17th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Vancouver, Canada, October 1998.
27. Falshaw, L., Bates, A., Patel, V. et al. (2003). Assessing reconviction, re-offending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 8, 207-215.
28. Firestone, P., Bradford, J.M., McCoy, M. et al. (1999). Prediction of recidivism in incest offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 14, 511-531.
29. Friendship, C., Mann, R.E. & Beech, A.R. (2003). Evaluation of a national prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders in England and Wales. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 18, 744-759.
30. Green, G., Gray, N.S. & Willner, P. (2002). Factors associated with criminal convictions for sexually inappropriate behaviour in men with learning disabilities. Journal ofForensic Psychiatry, 13, 578-607.
31. Grove, W.M., Zald, D.H., Lebow, B.S. et al. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A metaanalysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19-30.
32. Grubin, D. (1998). Sex offending against children: Understanding the risk. Police Research Series, Paper 99. Available from the Research and Statistics Directorate, Home Office, 50 Queen Anne's Gate, London, SW1H 9AT, England. Available electronically from: www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fprs99.pdf.
33. Grubin, D. (1999). Actuarial and clinical assessment of risk in sex offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence. 14, 331-343.
34. Haag, A.M. (2005). Do psychological interventions impact on actuarial measures: An analysis of the predictive validity of the Static-99 and the Static-2002 on a reconviction measure of sexual recidivism. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
35. Hanley, J.A. & McNeil, B.J. (1982). The meaning and use of the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, 143, 29-36.
36. Hanson, R.K. (1997). The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offence recidivism. (User Report No. 1997-04.) Ottawa: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada. http://www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199704/e199704.htm.
37. Hanson, R.K. (2005). The assessment of criminogenic needs of sexual offenders by community supervision officers: Reliability and validity. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Canadian Psychological Association, June 10th 2005, Montreal, Canada.
38. Hanson, R.K. & Bussière, M.T. (1998). Predicting relapse:Ameta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-362.
39. Hanson, R.K. & Harris. A.J.R. (1998). Dynamic predictors of sexual recidivism. Corrections Research Ottawa: Department of the Solicitor General Canada. Also available electronically from: http://www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199801b/e199801b.htm.
40. Hanson, R.K. & Harris, A.J.R. (2000a). STABLE-2000. Unpublished manuscript. Department of the Solicitor General Canada. Available from the authors: e-mail Andrew Harris at Andrew. Harris@PSEPC-SPPCC.GC.CA.
41. Hanson, R.K.&Harris, A.J.R. (2000b). ACUTE-2000. Unpublished manuscript. Department of the Solicitor General Canada. Available from the authors: e-mail Andrew Harris at Andrew. Harris@PSEPCSPPCC. GC.CA www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e200001a/e200001b/e200001b.htm.
42. Hanson, R.K.&Morton-Bourgon, K. (2004). Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. Corrections Research, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada. Available electronically from: http://www.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/pdf/200402 e.pdf.
43. Hanson, R.K. & Morton-Bourgon, K. (2005). The characteristics of persistent sexual offenders:Ametaanalysis of recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 73, 1154-1163.
44. Hanson, R.K. & Morton-Bourgon, K. (2007). The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis. Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada. Available electronically from: http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/fl/crp2007-01-en.pdf.
45. Hanson, R.K., Morton, K.E. & Harris, A.J.R. (2003). Sexual offender recidivism: What we know and what we need to know. In R. Prentky, E. Janus, M. Seto & A.W. Burgess (Eds), Understanding and managing sexually coercive behavior. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 154-166.
46. Hanson, R.K. & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessment for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136.
47. Hanson, R.K. & Thornton, D. (2003). Notes on the development of Static-2002. Available online from: http://ww2.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/200301 Static 2002 e.asp.
48. Hare, R. (1991). Manual for the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. Toronto, Ontario: Multi-Health Systems, Inc.
49. Harris, A.J.R. & Hanson, R.K. (2003). The Dynamic Supervision Project: Improving the community supervision of sex offenders. Corrections Today, 65, 62-64.
50. Harris, G.T.&Rice, M. (2003). Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders. In R. Prentky, E. Janus, M. Seto & A.W. Burgess (Eds), Understanding and managing sexually coercive behavior. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 198-210.
51. Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., Quinsey, V.L. et al. (2003). Amultisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. Psychological Assessments, 15, 413-425.
52. Hart, S., Laws, D.R. & Kropp, P.R. (2003). The promise and the peril of sex offender risk assessment. In T. Ward, D.R. Laws & S.M. Hudson (Eds), Sexual deviance: Issues and controversies (pp. 207-225). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
53. Hartwell, L.L. (2001). Sex Offender RiskAppraisal Guide:Validity and utility for Hawaii sex offender risk assessments. Unpublished Clinical Research Project, American School of Professional Psychology, Hawaii Campus.
54. Hasselblad, V. & Hedges, L.V. (1995). Meta-analysis of screening and diagnostic tests. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 167-178.
55. Hildebrand, M., de Ruiter, C. & de Vogel, V. (2004). Psychopathy and sexual deviance in treated rapists: Association with sexual and nonsexual recidivism. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 16, 1-24.
56. Hood, R., Shute, S., Feilzer, M. &Wilcox, A. (2002). Sex offenders emerging from long-term imprisonment. A study of their long-term reconviction rates and of parole board members' judgments of their risk. British Journal of Criminology, 42, 371-394.
57. Janus, E.A. & Meehl, P.E. (1997). Assessing the legal standard for predictions of dangerousness in sex offender commitment proceedings. Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 3, 33-64.
58. Långström, N. (2004). Accuracy of actuarial procedures for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk may vary across ethnicity. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 16, 107-120.
59. Langton, C.M., Barbaree, H.E., Harkins, L. et al. (2002). Evaluating the predictive validity of seven risk assessment instruments for sex offenders. Paper presented at the 21st Annual Research and Treatment Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers: Montreal, Canada, October 2002.
60. Langton, C.M., Barbaree, H.E., Seto, M.C. et al. (2007). Actuarial assessment of risk for reoffense among adult sex offenders: Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and five other instruments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 37-59.
61. Looman, J. (2006). Comparison of two risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 193-206.
62. Mailloux, D.L., Abracen, J., Serin, R. et al. (2003). Dosage of treatment to sexual offenders: Are we overprescribing? International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 47, 171-184.
63. Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783-792.
64. Nunes, K.L., Firestone, P., Bradford, J.M. et al. (2002). Acomparison of modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 253-269.
65. Olver, M.E. &Wong, S.C.P. (2006). Psychopathy, sexual deviance, and recidivism among sex offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 65-82.
66. Quinsey, V.L., Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E. & Cormier, C.A. (1998). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington DC: American Psychological Association.
67. Quinsey, V.L., Rice, M.E. & Harris, G.T. (1995). Actuarial prediction of sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 10, 85-105.
68. Rice, M.E. & Harris, G.T. (1997). Cross-validation and extension of the Violent Risk Appraisal Guide for child molesters and rapists. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 231-241.
69. Rice, M.E. & Harris, G.T. (2002). Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: Is a special explanation required? Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111, 329-339.
70. Rogers, R. (2000). The uncritical acceptance of risk assessment in forensic practice. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 595-605.
71. Serin, R.C., Mailloux, D.L.&Malcolm, P.B. (2001). Psychopathy, deviant sexual arousal, and recidivism among sex offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 16, 234-246.
72. Sjöstedt, G. & Grann, M. (2002). Risk assessment: what is being predicted by actuarial prediction instruments? International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 1, 179-183.
73. Sjöstedt, G. & Långström, N. (2000). Actuarial assessment of risk for criminal recidivism among sex offenders released from Swedish prisons 1993-1997. Poster presented at the 19th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Diego, CA, October 2000.
74. Sjöstedt, G. & Långström, N. (2001). Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: A crossvalidation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden. Law and Human Behavior, 25, 629-645.
75. Sjöstedt, G. & Långström, N. (2002). Assessment of risk for criminal recidivism among rapists: A comparison of four different measures. Psychology, Crime and Law, 8, 25-40.
76. Thornton, D. (2002). Constructing and testing a framework for dynamic risk assessment. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 137-151.
77. Thornton, D.&Beech.A.R. (2002). Integrating statistical and psychological factors through the structured risk assessment model. Paper presented at the 21st Annual Conference of the Association of the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Montreal, Canada, October 2002.
78. Thornton, D., Mann, R., Webster, S. et al. (2003). Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism. In R. Prentky, E. Janus, M. Seto & A.W. Burgess (Eds), Understanding and managing sexually coercive behavior. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 225-235.
79. Ward, T. & Siegert, R.J. (2002). Toward a comprehensive theory of child sexual abuse:Atheory knitting perspective. Psychology, Crime and Law, 8, 319-351.
80. Webster, S.D., Mann, R.E., Carter, A.J. et al. (2006). Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders. Psychology, Crime and Law, 12, 439-452.