Application of bayesian model averaging approach to multimodel ensemble hydrologic forecasting

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

Volumn 18, Issue 11, 2013, Pages 1425-1436

  Liang, Zhongmin ^a   Wang, Dong ^a   Guo, Yan ^a   Zhang, Yu ^a   Dai, Rong ^b  

^a HOHAI UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b Northwest Hydro Consulting Engineers   (China)

Author keywords

Bayesian model averaging; Expectation maximization algorithm; Forecasting uncertainty; Gaussian mixture model; Hydrological model; Multimodel ensemble hydrologic forecasting; Normal quantile transform

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING; EXPECTATION-MAXIMIZATION ALGORITHMS; GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL; HYDROLOGIC FORECASTING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FLOOD CONTROL; FLOODS; NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; SIGNAL RECONSTRUCTION; WEIGHING;

FORECASTING;

ALGORITHM; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FLOOD; GAUSSIAN METHOD; GEOSTATISTICS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; RIVER DISCHARGE; TRANSFORM; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CHINA; YELLOW RIVER;

EID: 84886304186     PISSN: 10840699     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000493     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Abbott, M. B., and Bathurst, J. C. (1986). "An introduction to the European hydrological system-System Hydrologique European, "SHE" 1: History and philosophy of a physically based distributed modeling system." J. Hydrol., 87(1-2), 45-49.
2. Ajami, N. K., Duan, Q. Y., and Sorooshian, S. (2007). "An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: Confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction." Water Resour. Res., 43(1), W01403.
3. Beven, K. J. (1989). "Changing ideas in hydrology-The case of physically based models." J. Hydrol., 105(1-2), 157-172.
4. Bilmes, J. A. (1998). "A gentle tutorial of the EM algorithm and its application to parameter estimation for Gaussian mixture and hidden Markov models." Technical Rep., Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, U.C. Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 1-13.
5. Burnash, R. J. C., Ferral, R. L., and McGuire, R. A. (1973). "A generalized streamflow system: Conceptual modeling for digital computers." Joint Federal State River Forecasts Centre, Sacramento, CA.
6. Crowford, N. H., and Linsley, R. K. (1966). "Digital simulation in hydrology: Standford watershed model IV." Tech. Rep. No. 39, Dept. Civil Engineering, Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA, 210.
7. Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M., and Rubin, D. B. (1977). "Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm." J. Royal Stat. Soc. Series B, 39(1), 1-38.
8. Dickinson, J. P. (1975). "Some comments on the combination of forecasts." Oper. Res. Q., 26(1), 205-210.
9. Duan, Q. Y., Ajami, N. K., Gao, X., and Sorooshian, S. (2007). "Multimodel ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging." Adv. Water Resour., 30(5), 1371-1386.
10. Hoeting, J. A., Raftery, M. D., and Volinsky, A. E. (1999). "Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial." Stat. Sci., 14(4), 382-401.
11. Hosking, J. R. M. (1990). "L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distribution using linear combinations of order statistics." J. Royal Stat. Soc. Series B, 52(1), 105-124.
12. Huang, Z. P. (2003). Hydrologic statistics, Hohai University Press, Nanjing, China, 234-236.
13. Kelly, K. S., and Krzysztofowicz, R. (1994). "Probability distributions for flood warning systems." Water Resour. Res., 30(4), 1145-1152.
14. Madigan, D., and Raftery, A. E. (1994). "Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's window." J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 89(428), 1535-1546.
15. Makridakis, S., et al. (1982). "The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition." J. Forecasting, 1(2), 111-153.
16. Makridakis, S., and Winkler, R. L. (1983). "Average of forecasts: Some empirical results." Manage. Sci., 29(9), 987-996.
17. Neuman, S. P., and Wierenga, P. J. (2003). "A comprehensive strategy of hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis for nuclear facilities and sites." NUREG/CR-6805, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC.
18. Raftery, A. E. (1995). "Bayesian model selection in social research (with discussion)." Sociological methodology, P. V. Marsden, ed., Blackwell Publishers, Cambridge, MA, 111-196.
19. Raftery, A. E., Balabdaoui, F., Gneiting, T., and Polakowski, M. (2003). "Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles." Technical Rep. 440, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle.
20. Raftery, A. E., Geneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., and Polakowski, M. (2005). "Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles." Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174.
21. Rubin, D. B., and Schenker, N. (1986). "Efficiently simulating the coverage properties of interval estimates." J. Royal Statis. Soci.: Seri. C, 35(2), 159-167.
22. See, L., and Abrahart, R. J. (2001). "Multi-model data fusion for hydrological forecasting." Comput. Geosci., 27(8), 987-994.
23. Shamseldin, A. Y., O'Connor, K. M., and Liang, G. C. (1997). "Methods for combining the outputs of different rainfall-runoffmodels." J. Hydrol., 197(1-4), 203-229.
24. Sherman, L. K. (1932). "Streamflow from rainfall by the unit hydrograph method." Eng. N. Rec., 108, 501-505.
25. Sugawara, M., et al. (1974). "Tank model and its application to Bird Creek, Wollombi Brook, Bikin River, Kitsu River, Sanga River and Nam Mune." Research Note, Vol. 11, National Research Center for Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki, Japan, 1-64.
26. Thomthwaite, C. W., and Mather, J. R. (1995). The water balance, Laboratory of Climatology, Centerton, NJ, 86.
27. Todini, E. (1995). "New trends in modeling soil processes from hill-slope to GCMS Scales." The role of water and the hydrological cycle in global change: NATO ASI Series I-Global environmental change, H. R. Oliver and S. A. Oliver, eds., Vol. 31, 317-347.
28. Xiong, L., Shamseldin, A. Y., and O'Connor, K. M. (2001). "A non-linear combination of the forecasts of rainfall-runoffmodels by the first-order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system." J. Hydrol., 245(1-4), 196-217.
29. Zhao, R. J. (1992). "The Xin'anjiang model applied in China." J. Hydrol., 135(1-4), 371-381.
30. Zhao, R. J., Zhang, Y. L., Fang, L. R., Liu, X. R., and Zhang, Q. S. (1980). "The Xinanjiang model." Hydrological Forecasting Proceedings Oxford Symposium, IAHS publication no. 129, 351-356.