Phenological indices of avian reproduction: Cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales

Ecology and Evolution

Volumn 3, Issue 7, 2013, Pages 1864-1877

  Gullett, Philippa ^a   Hatchwell, Ben J ^a   Robinson, Robert A ^b   Evans, Karl L ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

^b THE NUNNERY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Fecundity; First egg date; Global warming; Lay date; Microevolutionary change; Predation; Reproductive window; Selection pressure; Timing of breeding; Trophic mismatch

Indexed keywords

EID: 84886288810     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20457758     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.558     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Adamik, P., and M. Král 2008. Climate- and resource-driven long-term changes in dormice populations negatively affect hole-nesting songbirds. J. Zool. 275:209-215.
2. Baillie, S. R., J. H. Marchant, D. I. Leech, A. R. Renwick, S. M. Eglington, A. C. Joys, et al. 2012. BirdTrends 2011. BTO Research Report No. 609. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, U.K.
3. Both, C., M. van Asch, R. G. Bijlsma, A. B. van den Burg, and M. E. Visser 2009. Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations? J. Anim. Ecol. 78:73-83.
4. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson 2002. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. 2nd ed. Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., New York.
5. Caro, S. P., A. Charmantier, M. M. Lambrechts, J. Blondel, J. Balthazart, and T. D. Williams 2009. Local adaptation of timing of reproduction: females are in the driver's seat. Funct. Ecol. 23:172-179.
6. Charmantier, A., R. H. McCleery, L. R. Cole, C. Perrins, L. E. Kruuk, and B. C. Sheldon 2008. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population. Science 320:800.
7. Cohen, J. 1988. Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. 2nd ed. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ.
8. Cramp, S., and C. M. Perrins 1993. Handbook of the birds of Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. The birds of the western Palearctic. Volume VII: Flycatchers to shrikes. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, U.K.
9. Crick, H. Q. P., and T. H. Sparks 1999. Climate change related to egg-laying trends. Nature 399:423.
10. Crick, H. Q. P., C. Dudley, D. E. Glue, and D. L. Thomson 1997. UK birds are laying eggs earlier. Funct. Ecol. 9:55-60.
11. Crick, H. Q. P., S. R. Baillie, and D. I. Leech 2003. The UK Nest Record Scheme: its value for science and conservation: a review of its methodology, analytical procedures and uses. Bird Study 50:254-270.
12. Dawson, A. 2005. The effect of temperature on photoperiodically regulated gonadal maturation, regression and moult in starlings: potential consequences of climate change. Funct. Ecol. 19:995-1000.
13. Diez, J. M., I. Ibanez, A. J. Miller-Rushing, S. J. Mazer, M. A. Crimmins, C. D. Bertelsen, et al. 2012. Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns. Ecol. Lett. 15:545-553.
14. Evans, K. L., R. P. Duncan, T. M. Blackburn, and H. Q. P. Crick 2005. Investigating geographic variation in clutch size using a natural experiment. Funct. Ecol. 19:616-624.
15. Farnsworth, G. L., and T. R. Simons 2001. How many baskets? Clutch sizes that maximize annual fecundity of multiple-brooded birds. Auk 118:973-982.
16. Freckleton, R. P. 2010. Dealing with collinearity in behavioural and ecological data: model averaging and the problems of measurement error. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 65:91-101.
17. García-Navas, V., and J. J. Sanz 2011. Seasonal decline in provisioning effort and nestling mass of Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus: experimental support for the parent quality hypothesis. Ibis 153:59-69.
18. Gienapp, P., E. Postma, and M. E. Visser 2006. Why breeding time has not responded to selection for earlier breeding in a songbird population. Evolution 60:2381-2388.
19. Gienapp, P., C. Teplitsky, J. S. Alho, J. A. Mills, and J. Merilä 2008. Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Mol. Ecol. 17:167-178.
20. Gienapp, P., R. A. Väisänen, and J. E. Brommer 2010. Latitudinal variation in breeding time reaction norms in a passerine bird. J. Anim. Ecol. 79:836-842.
21. Green, R. E. 1988. Effects of environmental factors on the timing and success of breeding of common snipe Gallinago gallinago (Aves, Scolopacidae). J. Appl. Ecol. 36:59-74.
22. Grzybowski, J. A., and C. M. Pease 2005. re-nesting determines seasonal fecundity in songbirds: What do we know? What should we assume? Auk 122:280-291.
23. Halupka, L., A. Dyrcz, and M. Borowiec 2008. Climate change affects breeding of reed warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus. J. Avian Biol. 39:95-100.
24. Harris, M. P., D. J. Halley, and S. Wanless 1992. The post-fledging survival of young guillemots Uria aalge in relation to hatching date and growth. Ibis 134:335-339.
25. Hatchwell, B. J., A. F. Russell, M. K. Fowlie, and D. J. Ross 1999. Reproductive success and nest-site selection in a cooperative breeder: effect of experience and a direct benefit of helping. Auk 116:355-363.
26. Hatchwell, B. J., A. F. Russell, A. D. C. MacColl, D. J. Ross, M. K. Fowlie, and A. McGowan 2004. Helpers increase long-term but not short-term productivity in cooperatively breeding long-tailed tits. Behaviour. Ecol. 15:1-10.
27. Hodgson, J. A., C. D. Thomas, T. H. Oliver, B. J. Anderson, T. M. Brereton, and E. E. Crone 2011. Predicting insect phenology across space and time. Glob. Change Biol. 17:1289-1300.
28. Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, and D. Xiasou 2001. Climate Change 2001. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.
29. Husby, A., L. E. B. Kruuk, and M. E. Visser 2009. Decline in the frequency and benefits of multiple brooding in great tits as a consequence of a changing climate. Proc. Biol. Sci. 276:1845-1854.
30. Jenkins, G.J, Perry, M.C., Prior, and M. J (2008) The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. Available at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/ukcp09/ (accessed 27 January 2012).
31. Jones, T., and W. Cresswell 2010. The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change? J. Anim. Ecol. 79:98-108.
32. MacColl, A. D. C., and B. J. Hatchwell 2002. Temporal variation in fitness payoffs promotes cooperative breeding in long-tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus. Am. Nat. 160:186-194.
33. MacColl, A. D. C., and B. J. Hatchwell 2004. Determinants of lifetime fitness in a cooperative breeder, the long-tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus. J. Anim. Ecol. 73:1137-1148.
34. Mayfield, H. F. 1975. Suggestions for calculating nest success. Wilson Bull. 87:456-466.
35. Menzel, A., and P. Fabian 1999. Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397:659-659.
36. Miller-Rushing, A. J., T. L. Lloyd-Evans, R. B. Primack, and P. Satzinger 2008. Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes. Glob. Change Biol. 14:1959-1972.
37. Miller-Rushing, A. J., T. T. Hoye, D. W. Inouye, and E. Post 2010. The effects of phenological mismatches on demography. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 365:3177-3186.
38. Møller, A. P., D. Rubolini, and E. Lehikoinen 2008. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105:16195.
39. Møller, A., E. Flensted-Jensen, K. Klarborg, W. Mardal, and J. Nielsen 2010. Climate change affects the duration of the reproductive season in birds. J. Anim. Ecol. 79:777-784.
40. Monrós, J. S., E. J. Belda, and E. Barba 2002. Post-fledging survival of individual great tits: the effect of hatching date and fledging mass. Oikos 99:481-488.
41. van Noordwijk, A. J., R. H. McCleery, and C. M. Perrins 1995. Selection for the timing of great tit breeding in relation to caterpillar growth and temperature. J. Anim. Ecol. 64:451-458.
42. Parker, D. E., T. P. Legg, and C. K. Folland 1992. A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 772-1991. Int. J. Climatol., 12:317-342. Available at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ (accessed 22 February 2012).
43. Perfito, N., S. Y. Jeong, B. Silverin, R. M. Calisi, G. E. Bentley, and M. Hau 2012. Anticipating spring: wild populations of great tits Parus major differ in expression of key genes for photoperiodic time measurement. PLoS ONE 7:e34997.
44. Piñeiro, G., S. Perelman, J. P. Guerschman, and J. M. Paruelo 2008. How to evaluate models: observed vs. predicted or predicted vs. observed? Ecol. Model. 216:316-322.
45. Podolsky, A. L., T. R. Simons, and J. A. Collazo 2007. Modeling population growth of the ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) in the southern Appalachians. Auk 124:1359-1372.
46. Porlier, M., A. Charmantier, P. Bourgault, P. Perret, J. Blondel, and D. Garant 2012. Variation in phenotypic plasticity and selection patterns in blue tit breeding time: between and within population comparisons. J. Anim. Ecol. 81:1041-1051.
47. Primack, R. B., I. Ibáñez, H. Higuchi, S. D. Lee, A. J. Miller-Rushing, A. M. Wilson, et al. 2009. Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures. Biol. Conserv. 12:716-728.
48. R Development Core Team. 2010. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Available at: http://www.R-project.org.
49. Schaper, S. V., C. Rueda, P. J. Sharp, A. Dawson, and M. E. Visser 2011. Spring phenology does not affect timing of reproduction in the great tit (Parus major). J. Exp. Biol. 214:3664-3671.
50. Sharp, S. P., M. B. Baker, J. D. Hadfield, M. Simeoni, and B. J. Hatchwell 2008. Natal dispersal and recruitment in a cooperatively breeding bird. Oikos 117:1371-1379.
51. Sheldon, B. C., L. E. B. Kruuk, and J. Merilä 2003. Natural selection and inheritance of breeding time and clutch size in the collared flycatcher. Evolution 57:406-420.
52. Smith, K. W., L. Smith, E. Charman, K. Briggs, M. Burgess, A. Dennis, et al. 2011. Large-scale variation in the temporal patterns of the frass fall of defoliating caterpillars in oak woodlands in Britain: implications for nesting woodland birds. Bird Study 58:506-511.
53. Thackeray, S. J., T. H. Sparks, M. Frederiksen, S. Burthe, P. J. Bacon, J. R. Bell, et al. 2010. Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments. Glob. Change Biol. 16:3304-3313.
54. Thomas, D. W., J. Blondel, P. Perret, M. M. Lambrechts, and J. R. Speakman 2001. Energetic and fitness costs of mismatching resource supply and demand in seasonally breeding birds. Science 291:2598-2600.
55. Vatka, E., M. Orell, and S. Rytkonen 2011. Warming climate advances breeding and improves synchrony of food demand and food availability in a boreal passerine. Glob. Change Biol. 17:3002-3009.
56. Visser, M. E., B. Silverin, M. M. Lambrechts, and J. M. Tinbergen 2002. No evidence for tree phenology as a cue for the timing of reproduction in tits Parus spp. Avian Sci. 2:77-86.
57. Visser, M. E., F. Adriaensen, J. H. van Balen, J. Blondel, A. A. Dhondt, S. van Dongen, et al. 2003. Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations. Proc. Biol. Sci. 270:367-372.
58. Visser, M. E., L. J. Holleman, and P. Gienapp 2006. Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird. Oecologia 147:164-172.
59. Walther, G.-R., E. Post, P. Convey, A. Menzel, C. Parmesan, T. J. C. Beebee, et al. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389-395.
60. Winkler, D. W., P. O. Dunn, and C. E. McCulloch 2002. Predicting the effects of climate change on avian life-history traits. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 99:13595-13599.
61. Wright, L. J., R. A. Hoblyn, R. E. Green, C. G. R. Bowden, J. W. Mallord, W. J. Sutherland, et al. 2009. Importance of climatic and environmental change in the demography of a multi-brooded passerine, the woodlark Lullula arborea. J. Anim. Ecol. 78:1191-1202.