Tropical cyclone predictions over the bay of bengal using the high-resolution advanced research weather research and forecasting (ARW) model

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 139, Issue 676, 2013, Pages 1810-1825

  Srinivas, C V ^a   Bhaskar Rao, D V ^b   Yesubabu, V ^c   Baskaran, R ^a   Venkatraman, B ^a  

^a INDIRA GANDHI CENTRE FOR ATOMIC RESEARCH   (India)

^b JACKSON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADVANCED COMPUTING   (India)

Author keywords

ARW model; Bay of Bengal; Numerical prediction; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

BAY OF BENGAL; LAND SURFACE SCHEME; NORTHERN INDIAN OCEANS; NUMERICAL PREDICTIONS; PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYERS; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTIONS; WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; ERRORS; HURRICANES; RESEARCH; SEA LEVEL; STORMS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

BAY OF BENGAL; INDIAN OCEAN;

EID: 84886236705     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2064     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Arakawa A, Schubert WH. 1974. Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. Part I. J. Atmos. Sci. 31: 674-701.
2. Bender MA, Ginis I, Tuleya RE, Thomas B, Marchok T. 2007. The operational GFDL coupled hurricane-ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance. Mon. Weath. Rev. 135: 3965-3989.
3. Betts AK, Miller MJ. 1986. A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, and Arctic air-mass data sets. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 112: 693-709.
4. Bhaskar Rao DV, Naidu CV, Srinivasa Rao B. 2001. Trends and fluctuations of the cyclonic systems over North Indian Ocean. Mausam 52(1): 1-8.
5. Bhaskar Rao DV, Hari Prasad D. 2006. Numerical prediction of the Orissa super-cyclone: Sensitivity to the parameterization of convection, boundary layer and explicit moisture processes. Mausam 57(1): 61-78.
6. Bhaskar Rao DV, Hari Prasad D. 2007. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes. Nat. Hazards 41(3): 429-445.
7. Bhaskar Rao DV, Hari Prasad D, Srinivas D. 2009. Impact of horizontal resolution and the advantages of the nested domains approach in the prediction of tropical cyclone intensification and movement. J. Geophys. Res. 114: D11106, 24-pp. DOI:10.1029/2008JD011623.
8. Chen F, Dudhia J. 2001. Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model description and implementation. Mon. Weath. Rev. 129: 569-585.
9. Davis C, Wang W, Chen SS, Chen Y, Corbosiero K, De Maria M, Dudhia J, Holland G, Klemp J, Michalakes J, Reeves H, Rotunno R, Snyder C, Xiao O. 2008. Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. Mon. Weath. Rev. 136: 1990-2005.
10. Deshpande M, Pattnaik S, Salvekar PS. 2010. Impact of physical parameterization schemes of numerical simulation of super cyclone Gonu. Nat. Hazards 55: 211-231. DOI 10.1007/s11069-010-9521-x.
11. Dudhia J. 1989. Numerical study of convection observed during winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci. 46: 3077-3107.
12. Dudhia J. 1996. A Multi-layer Soil Temperature Model for MM5. Preprint from the Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop.
13. Dudhia J, Hong S-Y, Lim KS. 2008. A new method for representing mixed-phase particle fall speeds in bulk microphysics parameterizations. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn 86A: 33-44.
14. Gopalakrishnan SG, Goldenberg S, Quirino T, Zhang X, Marks F, Yeh KS, Atlas R, Tallapragada V. 2012. Toward improving high-resolution numerical hurricane forecasting: Influence of model horizontal grid resolution, initialization, and physics. Wea. Forecast. 27: 647-666.
15. Gray WM. 1968. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Weath. Rev. 96: 669-700.
16. Grell GA, Dévényi D. 2002. A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29(14): 1693. DOI:10.1029/2002GL015311.
17. Hill KA, Lackmann GM. 2009. Analysis of idealized tropical cyclone simulations using the weather research and forecasting model: sensitivity to turbulence parameterization and grid spacing. Mon. Weath. Rev. 137: 745-765.
18. Holtslag AAM, Boville BA. 1993. Local versus non-local boundary layer diffusion in a global climate model. J. Climate 6: 1825-1842.
19. Hong S-Y, Dudhia J, Chen S-H. 2004. A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon. Weath. Rev. 132: 103-120.
20. Hong S-Y, Noh Y, Dudhia J. 2006. A new vertical diffusion package with explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Weath. Rev. 134: 2318-2341.
21. India Meteorological Department. 2010. Reports on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean. Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre-Tropical Cyclones: New Delhi. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc1.htm.
22. Janjić ZI. 1994. The step-mountain eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer and turbulence closure schemes. Mon. Weath. Rev. 122: 927-945. DOI:10.1175/1520-0493.
23. Janjić ZI. 2000. Comments on 'Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models'. J. Atmos. Sci. 57: 3686.
24. Janjić ZI. 2002. Nonsingular Implementation of the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Scheme in the NCEP Meso Model. Office Note, No. 437, NCEP: 61 pp.
25. Kain JS. 2004. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43: 170-181.
26. Knaff JA, DeMaria M, Molenar DA, Sampson CR, Seybold MG. 2011. An automated objective, multiple-satellite-platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 50: 2149-2166.
27. Krishna KO, Routray A, Mohanty UC, Kulkarni MA. 2010. Simulation of tropical cyclones over Indian Seas: Data impact study using WRF-Var assimilation system. In Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Charabi Y (ed.). Springer-Verlag: Berlin; 115-124.
28. Krishna KO, Mohanty UC, Routray A, Kulkarni MA, Mohapatra M. 2012. Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean. Nat. Hazards 633 1337-1359.
29. Lin YL, Farley RD, Orville HD. 1983. Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Appl. Meteorol. 22: 1065-1092.
30. Marks FD, Shay LK. 1998. Landfalling tropical cyclones: Forecast problems and associated research opportunities. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79: 305-323.
31. McNoldy B, DeMaria M, Tallapragada V, Marchock T. 2010. WRF performance diagnostics form the 2009 atlantic hurricane season. Preprints, American Meteorological Society 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ.
32. Mellor GL, Yamada T. 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 20: 851-875.
33. Mohanty UC, Mandal M, Raman S. 2004. Simulation of Orissa super-cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR mesoscale model. Nat. Hazards 31: 373-390.
34. Mlawer EJ, Taubman SJ, Brown PD, Iacono MJ, Clough SA. 1997. Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res. 102D14 16663-16682.
35. Mukhopadhyay P, Taraphdar S, Goswami BN. 2011. Influence of moist processes on track and intensity forecast of cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 116: D05116, 21-pp. DOI:10.1029/2010JD014700.
36. Nolan DS, Zhang JA, Stern DP. 2009a. Evaluation of planetary boundary layer parameterizations in tropical cyclones by comparison of in situ observations and high-resolution simulations of hurricane Isabel (2003). Part I: Initialization, maximum winds, and the outer-core boundary layer. Mon. Weath. Rev. 137: 3651-3674.
37. Nolan DS, Stern DP, Zhang JA. 2009b. Evaluation of planetary boundary layer parameterizations in tropical cyclones by comparison of in situ observations and high-resolution simulations of hurricane Isabel (2003). Part II: Inner-core boundary layer and eyewall structure. Mon. Weath. Rev. 137: 3675-3698.
38. Pattanaik S, Mohanty UC. 2008. A comparative study on performance of MM5 and WRF models in simulation of tropical cyclones over Indian seas. Current Sci. 95(7): 923-936.
39. Pattanaik S, Mohanty UC. 2010. Simulation of track and intensity of Gonu and Sidr with WRF-NMM modeling system. In Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Charabi Y (ed.). Springer-Verlag: Berlin; 83-92.
40. Pleim JE. 2007. A combined local and non-local closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer. Part 1: Model description and testing. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 46: 1383-1395.
41. Prasad K. 2006. Further experiments on cyclone track prediction with quasi-Lagrangian limited area model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 91(1-4): 183-199.
42. Prasad K, Rama Rao YV. 2003. Cyclone track prediction by a quasi-Lagrangian model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 83: 173-185.
43. Prasad K, Rama Rao YV. 2006. Simulation Studies on Cyclone Track Prediction by Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM) in Some Historical and Recent Cases in the Bay of Bengal, Using Global Re-analysis and Forecast Grid Point Data Sets. SMRC-No15, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre: Dhaka, Bangladesh.
44. Raghavan S, Sen Sarma AK. 2000. Tropical cyclone impacts in India and neighbourhood. In Storms, Vol. 1, Pielke R Jr, Pielke R Sr (eds). Routledge: London; 339-356.
45. Raju PVS, Jayaraman P, Mohanty UC. 2011a. Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1133-4 125-137. DOI: 10.1007/s00703-011-0151-y.
46. Raju PVS, Jayaraman P, Mohanty UC. 2011b. Prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007-2010 using high-resolution mesoscale model. Nat. Hazards. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9918-1.
47. Rama Rao YV, Prasad K. 2005. Further Evaluation of Quasi-Lagrangian Model. SMRC-No. 12, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre: Dhaka, Bangladesh.
48. Rapport EN, Franklin JL, Avila LA, Baig SR, Beven II JL, Blake ES, Burr CA, Jiing JG, Juckins CA, Knabb RD, Landsea CW, Mainelli M, Mayfield M, McAdie CJ, Pasch RJ, Sisko C, Stewart SR, Tribble AN. 2009. Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Wea. Forecast. 24: 395-419.
49. Singh R, Pal PK, Kishtawal CM, Joshi PC. 2008. The impact of variational assimilation of SSM/I and QuikSCAT satellite observations on the numerical simulation of Indian Ocean tropical cyclones (2008). Weath. Forecast. 23: 460-476.
50. Singh R, Kishtawal CM, Pal PK, Joshi PC. 2011. Assimilation of the multisatellite data into the WRF model for track and intensity simulation of the Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 111(3-4): 103-119, DOI: 10.1007/s00703-011-0127-y.
51. Singh R, Kishtawal CM, Pal PK, Joshi PC. 2012. Improved tropical cyclone forecasts over north Indian Ocean with direct assimilation of AMSU-A radiances. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1151-2 15-34. DOI: 10.1007/s00703-011-0165-5.
52. Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Dudha MG, Huang X, Wang W, Powers Y. 2008. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 30. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, Mesocale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Centre for Atmospheric Research: Boulder, CO; 113 pp.
53. Smirnova TG, Brown JM, Benjamin SG, Kim D. 2000. Parameterization of cold season processes in the MAPS land-surface scheme. J. Geophys. Res. 105(D3): 4077-4086.
54. Srinivas CV, Venkatesan R, Bhaskar Rao DV, Hariprasad D. 2007. Numerical simulation of Andhra severe cyclone (2003): Model sensitivity to boundary layer and convection parameterization. Pure Appl. Geophys. 164: 1-23.
55. Srinivas CV, Venkatesan R, Vesubabu V, Nagaraju C. 2010. Impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite meteorological observations on the numerical simulation of a Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone of Nov 2008 near Tamilnadu using WRF model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 110(1-2): 19-44.
56. Trivedi DK, Mukhopadhyay P, Vaidya SS. 2006. Impact of physical parameterization schemes on the numerical simulation of Orissa super cyclone (1999). Mausam 571 97-110.
57. Tyagi A, Bandyopadhyay BK, Mohapatra M. 2010. Monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances over North Indian Ocean by Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, New Delhi (India): Problems and prospective. In Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Charabi Y (ed.). Springer-Verlag: Berlin; pp. 93-103.
58. Yeh KS, Zhang X, Gopalakrishnan S, Aberson S, Rogers R, Marks FD, Atlas R. 2011. Performance of the experimental HWRF in the 2008 hurricane season. Nat. Hazards. DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9787-7.
59. Zhang X, Quirino TS, Gopalakrishnan S, Yeh KS, Marks FD, Goldenberg SB. 2011. HWRFX: Improving hurricane forecasts with high resolution modeling. Comput. Sci. Eng. 13: 13-21.