Reliability assessment of the water supply systems under uncertain future extreme climate conditions

Earth Interactions

Volumn 17, Issue 20, 2013, Pages 1-27

  Karamouz, Mohammad ^a   Goharian, Erfan ^b   Nazif, Sara ^c  

^a POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF UTAH   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN   (Iran)

Author keywords

Climate change; Rainfall runoff model; Reliability; System dynamics

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; RAIN; RELIABILITY; RESERVOIRS (WATER); RUNOFF; STREAM FLOW; SYSTEM THEORY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER SUPPLY; WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS;

DEMAND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; GLOBAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE; HYDROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RELIABILITY ASSESSMENTS; SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; SYSTEM DYNAMICS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CLIMATE EFFECT; DEMAND ANALYSIS; ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT; EXTREME EVENT; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; STRATEGIC APPROACH; STREAMFLOW; WATER SUPPLY;

ALBORZ; IRAN; KARAJ RIVER;

HEPATITIS B VIRUS;

EID: 84885940128     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: 10873562     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2012EI000503.1     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Ahmad, S., and P. S. Simonovic, 2000: System dynamics modeling of reservoir operations for flood management. J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 14, 190-198.
2. Alley, R. B., 2007: Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1-13.
3. Andersson, L., P. Samuelsson, and E. Kjellström 2010: Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe River basin. Tellus, 63A, 138-157, doi:10.1111/ j.1600-0870.2010.00480.x.
4. Bergström, S., 1992: The HBV model-Its structure and applications. SMHI Hydrology RH Rep. 4, 35 pp.
5. Bergström, S, 1995: The HBV model. Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, V. P. Singh, Ed., Water Resources Publications, 443-476.
6. Bergström, S, B. Carlsson, M. Gardelin, G. Lindstrom, A. Pettersson, and M. Rummukainen, 2001: Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden-Assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modeling. Climate Res., 16, 101-112.
7. Booij, M. J., 2005: Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions. J. Hydrol., 303 (1-4), 176-198.
8. Boorman, D. B., and C. E. Sefton, 1997: Recognizing the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response. Climatic Change, 35, 415-434.
9. Charlton, R., R. Fealy, S. Moore, J. Sweeney, and C. Murphy, 2006: Assessing the impact of climate change on water supply and flood hazard in Ireland using statistical downscaling and hy-drological modeling techniques. Climatic Change, 74, 475-491.
10. Chen, H., S. L. Guo, C. Y. Xu, and V. P. Singh, 2007: Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate change and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J. Hydrol., 344 (3-4), 171-184.
11. Christensen, N. S., A. W. Wood, N. Voisin, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. N. Palmer, 2004: The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Climatic Change, 62, 337-363.
12. Diaz-Nieto, J., and R. L. Wilby 2005: A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: Impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom. Climatic Change, 69, 245-268.
13. Forrester, J. W., 1961: Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press, 340 pp.
14. Gao, S., J. Wang, L. Xiong, A. Yin, and D. Li, 2002: A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. J. Hydrol., 268 (1-4), 1-15.
15. Goharian, E., 2012: Development of a dynamics algorithm for assessment of urban water supply system readiness (in Farsi). M.S. thesis, University of Tehran Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 155 pp.
16. Gosain, A. K., S. Rao, and A. Arora, 2011: Climate change impact assessment of water resources of India. Curr. Sci., 101, 356-371.
17. Harlin, J., and C.S. Kung, 1992: Parameter uncertainty and simulation of design floods in Sweden. J. Hydrol., 137 (1-4), 209-230.
18. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Y. Xu, X. H. Chen, X. Chen, and V. P. Singh, 2007: Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. J. Hydrol., 336 (3-4), 316-333.
19. Karamouz, M., E. Goharian, and S. Nazif 2012: Development of a reliability based dynamics model of urban water supply system: A case study. Proc. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, Albuquerque, New Mexico, Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers, 2067-2078.
20. Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, T. H. Painter, and D. S. Schimel 1995: The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. J. Biogeogr., 22, 857-862.
21. Klausmeyer, K. R., and M. R. Shaw, 2009: Climate change habitat loss, protected areas and the climate adaptation potential of species in Mediterranean ecosystems worldwide. PLoS One, 4, e6392, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006392.
22. Masih, I., S. Uhlenbrook, S. Maskey, and M. D. Ahmad, 2010: Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on similarity of the flow duration curve: A case study from the semi-arid Karkheh basin, Iran. J. Hydrol., 391, 188-201, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.018.
23. Nazif, S., M. Karamouz, and E. Goharian, 2012: Analysis of future hydro-climatic condition in a semi-arid region: A case study. Proc. Fifth Int. Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment Conf., Marrakech, Morocco, Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers, 131.
24. Rahman, S., A. C. Bagtzoglou, F. Hossain, L. Tang, L. D. Yarbrough, G. Easson 2009: Investigating spatial downscaling of satellite rainfall data for streamflow simulation in a medium-sized basin. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 1063-1079.
25. Seibert, J., 1997: Estimation of parameter uncertainty in the HBV model. Nord. Hydrol., 28 (4-5), 247-262.
26. Seibert, J, 1999: Regionalisation of parameters for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Agric. For. Meteor., 98-99, 279-293.
27. Simonovic, S. P., and H. Fahmy, 1999: A new modeling approach for water resources policy analysis. Water Resour. Res., 35, 295-304, doi:10.1029/1998WR900023.
28. Stave, K. A., 2003: A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada. J. Environ. Manage., 67, 303-313.
29. Steele-Dunne, S., P. Lynch, R. McGrath, T. Semmler, S. Wang, J. Hanafin, and P. Nolan, 2008: The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. J. Hydrol., 356, 28-45, doi:10.1016/ j.jhydrol.2008.03.025.
30. Wigley, T. M. L., P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa, and G. Smith, 1990: Obtaining sub-grid-scale information from coarse-resolution general circulation model output. J. Geophys. Res., 95 (D2), 1943-1953.
31. Wilby, R. L., S. P. Charles, E. Zorita, B. Timbal, P. Whetton, and L. O. Mearns, 2004: Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods. IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) Rep., 27 pp. [Available online at http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/dgm_no2_v1_09_2004.pdf.]
32. Winz, I., G. Brierley, and S. Trowsdale, 2009: The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management. Water Resour. Manage., 23, 1301-1323.