Climate or migration: What limited European beech post-glacial colonization?

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 22, Issue 11, 2013, Pages 1217-1227

  Saltré, Frédérik ^a   Saint Amant, Rémi ^b   Gritti, Emmanuel S ^c   Brewer, Simon ^d   Gaucherel, Cédric ^e   Davis, Basil A S ^f   Chuine, Isabelle ^a  

^a CNRS   (France)

^b LAURENTIAN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^c Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF UTAH   (United States)

^e FRENCH INSTITUTE OF PONDICHERRY   (India)

^f EPFL   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Europe; Fagus sylvatica; Holocene; Migration modelling; Migration rate; Post glacial migration dynamics; Process based SDM

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE VARIATION; COLONIZATION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DECIDUOUS TREE; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; HOLOCENE; MIGRATION; MODELING; PHYLOGEOGRAPHY; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS;

EUROPE;

FAGUS; FAGUS SYLVATICA;

EID: 84885839059     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12085     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Bennett, K.D. (1986) The rate of spread and population increase of forest trees during the post-glacial. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 314, 523-531.
2. Bennett, K.D. & Provan, J. (2008) What do we mean by ' refugia?' Quaternary Science Reviews, 27, 2449-2455.
3. Bjorkman, L. & Bradshaw, R. (1996) The immigration of Fagus sylvatica L and Picea abies (L) Karst into a natural forest stand in southern Sweden during the last 2000 years. Journal of Biogeography, 23, 235-244.
4. Bolte, A., Czajkowski, T. & Kompa, T. (2007) The north-eastern distribution range of European beech - a review. Forestry, 80, 413-429.
5. Bonfils, C., De Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Guiot, J. & Bartlein, P.J. (2004) Some mechanisms of mid-Holocene climate change in Europe, inferred from comparing PMIP models to data. Climate Dynamics, 23, 79-98.
6. Brewer, S. (2002) Recolonisation postglaciaire de quelques taxons tempérés en Europe: une approche spatiale et temporelle, p. 240. Universite Provence, Marseille.
7. Cabral, J.S. & Schurr, F.M. (2010) Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 85-97.
8. Chuine, I. & Beaubien, E.G. (2001) Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range. Ecology Letters, 4, 500-510.
9. Clark, J.S., Lewis, M. & Horvath, L. (2001) Invasion by extremes: population spread with variation in dispersal and reproduction. The American Naturalist, 157, 537-554.
10. Collingham, Y.C., Hill, M.O. & Huntley, B. (1996) The migration of sessile organisms: a simulation model with measurable parameters. Journal of Vegetation Science, 7, 831-846.
11. Cousens, R., Dytham, C. & Law, R. (2008) Dispersal in plants: a population perspective. Oxford University Press, New York.
12. Cox, C.B. & Moore, P.D. (2010) Biogeography: an ecological and evolutionary approach, - 8th edn. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., London.
13. Davis, B.A.S., Brewer, S., Stevenson, A.C., Guiot, J. & Contributors, D. (2003) The temperature of Europe during the Holocene reconstructed from pollen data. Quaternary Science Reviews, 22, 1701-1716.
14. Dormann, C.F., Schymanski, S.J., Cabral, J., Chuine, I., Graham, C., Hartig, F., Kearney, M., Morin, X., Römermann, C., Schröder, B. & Singer, A. (2012) Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy. Journal of Biogeography, 39, 2119-2131.
15. Dullinger, S., Gattringer, A., Thuiller, W. etal. (2012) Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2, 619-622.
16. Ellenberg, H. (1986) Vegetation ecology of central Europe. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
17. Engler, R. & Guisan, A. (2009) MigClim: predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 590-601.
18. Gartner, S., Reif, A., Xystrakis, F., Sayer, U., Bendagha, N. & Matzarakis, A. (2008) The drought tolerance limit of Fagus sylvatica forest on limestone in southwestern Germany. Journal of Vegetation Science, 19, 757-768.
19. Giesecke, T., Hickler, T., Kunkel, T., Sykes, M.T. & Bradshaw, R.H.W. (2007) Towards an understanding of the Holocene distribution of Fagus sylvatica L. Journal of Biogeography, 34, 118-131.
20. Gritti, E.S., Duputié, A., Massol, F. & Chuine, I. (2013) Estimating consensus and uncertainty of inherently different species distribution models. Methods in Ecology & Evolution, doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12032.
21. Huntley, B., Bartlein, P.J. & Prentice, I.C. (1989) Climatic control of the distribution and abundance of beech (Fagus L.) in Europe and North America. Journal of Biogeography, 16, 551-560.
22. Johnson, W.C. & Webb, T. (1989) The role of blue jays (Cyanocitta cristata L) in the postglacial dispersal of Fagaceous trees in eastern north America. Journal of Biogeography, 16, 561-571.
23. Kearney, M. & Porter, W. (2009) Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecology Letters, 12, 334-350.
24. Kearney, M., Porter, W.P., Williams, C., Ritchie, S. & Hoffmann, A.A. (2009) Integrating biophysical models and evolutionary theory to predict climatic impacts on species' ranges: the dengue mosquito Aedes aegypti in Australia. Functional Ecology, 23, 528-538.
25. Küster, H. (1997) The role of farming in the postglacial expansion of beech and hornbeam in the oak woodlans of central Europe. The Holocene, 7, 239-242.
26. Legendre, P. (2007) Studying beta diversity: ecological variation partitioning by multiple regression and canonical analysis. Journal of Plant Ecology, 1, 3-8.
27. Lischke, H. (2005) Modeling tree species migration in the Alps during the Holocene: what creates complexity? Ecological Complexity, 2, 159-174.
28. McLachlan, J.S., Clark, J.S. & Manos, P.S. (2005) Molecular indicators of tree migration capacity under rapid climate change. Ecology, 86, 2088-2098.
29. Magri, D. (2008) Patterns of post-glacial spread and the extent of glacial refugia of European beech (Fagus sylvatica). Journal of Biogeography, 35, 450-463.
30. Magri, D., Vendramin, G.G., Comps, B., Dupanloup, I., Geburek, T., Gomory, D., Latalowa, M., Litt, T., Paule, L., Roure, J.M., Tantau, I., Van Der Knaap, W.O., Petit, R.J. & De Beaulieu, J.L. (2006) A new scenario for the Quaternary history of European beech populations: palaeobotanical evidence and genetic consequences. New Phytologist, 171, 199-221.
31. Meier, E.S., Edwards, T.C., Kienast, F., Dobbertin, M. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2012) Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L. Journal of Biogeography, 38, 371-382.
32. Metropolis, N., Rosenbluth, A.W., Rosenbluth, M.N., Teller, A.H. & Teller, E. (1953) Equation of state calculation by fast computing machines. Journal of Chemical Physics, 21, 1087-1092.
33. Morin, X., Augspurger, C. & Chuine, I. (2007) Process-based modeling of tree species' distributions: what limits temperate tree species' range boundaries? Ecology, 88, 2280-2291.
34. Morin, X., Viner, D. & Chuine, I. (2008) Tree species range shifts at a continental scale: new predictive insights from a process-based model. Journal of Ecology, 96, 784-794.
35. Ohlemüller, R., Gritti, E.S., Sykes, M.T. & Thomas, C.D. (2006) Towards European climate risk surfaces: the extent and distribution of analogous and non-analogous climates. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 1788-1799.
36. Pagel, J. & Schurr, F.M. (2012) Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 293-304.
37. Pearman, P.B., Randin, C.F., Broennimann, O., Vittoz, P., Knaap, W.O.V.D., Engler, R., Lay, G.L., Zimmermann, N.E. & Guisan, A. (2008) Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia. Ecology Letters, 11, 357-369.
38. Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
39. Pelachs, A., Perez-Obiol, R., Ninyerola, M. & Nadal, J. (2009) Landscape dynamics of Abies and Fagus in the southern Pyrenees during the last 2200 years as a result of anthropogenic impacts. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, 156, 337-349.
40. Pereira, H.M., Leadley, P.W., Proenca, V. etal. (2010) Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science, 330, 1496-1501.
41. Pommerening, A. (2002) Approaches to quantifying forest structures. Forestry, 75, 305-324.
42. Pommerening, A. & Stoyan, D. (2008) Reconstructing spatial tree point patterns from nearest neighbour summary statistics measured in small subwindows. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne de Recherche Forestiere, 38, 1110-1122.
43. Prentice, I.C., Bartlein, P.J. & Webb, T. (1991) Vegetation and climate change in Eastern North America since the last glacial maximum. Ecology, 72, 2038-2056.
44. Régnière, J.S. & St-Amant, R. (2007) Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America north of Mexico. International Journal of Biometeorology, 51, 415-430.
45. Saltré, F., Chuine, I., Brewer, S. & Gaucherel, C. (2009) A phenomenological model without dispersal kernel to model species migration. Ecological modelling, 220, 3546-3554.
46. Soberon, J. & Townsend, A.T. (2005) Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas. Biodiversity Informatics, 2, 1-10.
47. Stoyan, D. & Stoyan, H. (1998) Non-homogeneous Gibbs process models for forestry - a case study. Biometrical Journal, 40, 521-531.
48. Svenning, J.C. & Skov, F. (2004) Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species. Ecology Letters, 7, 565-573.
49. Svenning, J.-C., Normand, S. & Skov, F. (2008) Postglacial dispersal limitation of widespread forest plant species in nemoral Europe. Ecography, 31, 316-326.
50. Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Cabeza, M., Guisan, G., Hickler, T., Midgley, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M., Sykes, M.T. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 9, 137-152.
51. Tinner, W. & Lotter, A.F. (2006) Holocene expansions of Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba in Central Europe: where are we after eight decades of debate? Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 526-549.
52. Watson, C.S. (1996) The vegetational history of the Northern Apennines, Italy: information from three new sequences and a review of regional vegetational change. Journal of Biogeography, 23, 805-841.
53. Webb, R.W., Rosenzweig, C.E. & Levine, E.R. (2000) Global soil texture and derived water-holding capacities. Dataset. Available at: http://www.daac.ornl.gov from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA.
54. Willis, K.J., Bailey, R.M., Bhagwat, S.A. & Birks, H.J.B. (2010) Biodiversity baselines, thresholds and resilience: testing predictions and assumptions using palaeoecological data. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25, 583-591.