Dissecting the Illegal Ivory Trade: An Analysis of Ivory Seizures Data

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 10, 2013, Pages

  Underwood, Fiona M ^a,b   Burn, Robert W ^b   Milliken, Tom ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^b Independent Consultant   (United Kingdom)

^c TRAFFIC INTERNATIONAL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ANIMAL ABUSE; ANIMAL PRODUCT; ARTICLE; ASIA; BAYES THEOREM; CHINA; COMMERCIAL PHENOMENA; CRIME; CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPLOITATION; ILLEGAL IVORY TRADE; IVORY; MODEL; PURCHASING; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; TREND STUDY;

AFRICA; ANIMALS; CHINA; COMMERCE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; CRIME; ELEPHANTS; HUMANS; INCISOR;

EID: 84885743681     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0076539     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. CITES Secretariat (2012) Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants, CITES CoP16 Doc53.1http://www.cites.org/eng/cop/16/doc/E-CoP16-53-01.pdf.
2. Burn RW, Underwood FM, Blanc J (2011) Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data. PLoS One 6(9), e24165. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0024165.
3. Beyers RL, Hart JA, Sinclair ARE, Grossmann F, Klinkenberg B, et al.(2011) Resource Wars and Conflict Ivory: The Impact of Civil Conflict on Elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo- The Case of the Okapi Reserve. PLoS One 6(11), e27129. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027129.
4. Blake S, Strindberg S, Boudjan P, Makombo M, Bila-Isia I, et al. (2007) Forest elephant crisis in the Congo Basin. PLoS Biol 5(4), e111. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050111.
5. Maingi JK, Mukeka JM, Kyale DM, Muasya RM, (2012) Spatiotemporal patterns of elephant poaching in south-eastern Kenya. Wildlife Research 39(3): 234-249 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WR11017 (2012).
6. Maisels F, Strindberg S, Blake S, Wittemyer G, Hart J, et al. (2013) Devastating decline of forest elephants in Central Africa. PLoS One 8(3): e59469 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0059469.
7. Bouché P, Douglas-Hamilton I, Wittemyer G, Nianogo AJ, Doucet J-L, et al. (2011) Will Elephants Soon Disappear from West African Savannahs? PLoS One 6(6): e20619 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020619.
8. Bouché P, Mange RNM, Tankalet F, Zowoya F, Lejeune P, et al. (2012) Game over! Wildlife collapse in northern Central Africa Republic. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 184(11): 7001-7011 doi: 10.1007/s10661-011-2475-y.
9. CITES (2012) Elephant Conservation, Illegal Killing and Ivory Trade, CITES SC62 Doc. 46.1http://www.cites.org/eng/com/SC/62/E62-46-01.pdf.
10. Vigne L, Martin E, (2011) Southern China's illegal ivory trade flourishes. Oryx 45(4): 473-474.
11. Martin E, Vigne L, (2011) The importance of ivory in Philippine culture. Pachyderm 50: 56-67.
12. Vigne L, Martin E, (2010) Japanese demand for ivory declines. Oryx 44(3): 326-327.
13. Vigne L, Martin E, (2008) An increase in demand for ivory items in Ethiopia threatens elephants. Oryx 42(4): 483-483.
14. Bulte EH, van Kooten GC, (1999) Economics of anti-poaching enforcement and the ivory trade ban. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81(2): 453-466.
15. Bulte EH, van Kooten GC, (1999) Economic efficiency, resource conservation and the ivory trade ban. Ecological Economics 28(2): 171-181.
16. Lemieux AM, Clarke RV, (2009) The international ban on ivory sales and its effects on elephant poaching in Africa. British Journal of Criminology 49: 451-471.
17. Naylor RT, (2005) The underworld of ivory. Crime, Law and Social Change 42: 261-295 (note 64).
18. Keane A, Jones JPG, Edwards-Jones G, Milner-Gulland EJ, (2008) The sleeping policeman: understanding issues of enforcement and compliance in conservation. Animal Conservation 11: 75-82.
19. Barrett C, Gibson C, Hoffman B, McCubbins M, (2006) The complex links between governance and biodiversity. Conservation Biology 20(5): 1358-1366.
20. Smith RJ, Muir RDJ, Walpole MJ, Balmford A, Leader-Williams N, (2003) Governance and the loss of biodiversity. Nature 426: 67-70.
21. Kaufmann D, Kraay A, Mastruzzi M (2010) The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5430.
22. Hunter N, Martin E, Milliken T, (2004) Determining the number of elephants required to supply current unregulated ivory markets in Africa and Asia. Pachyderm 36: 116-128.
23. Blanc JJ, Thouless CR, Hart JA, Dublin HT, Douglas-Hamilton I et al. (2002) African Elephant Status Report 2002: an update from the African Elephant Database. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission, No 29. IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland.
24. Blanc JJ, Barnes RFW, Craig GC, Dublin HT, Thouless CR et al. (2007) African Elephant Status Report 2007: an update from the African Elephant Database. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission, No 33. IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland.
25. Milliken T, Burn RW, Underwood FM, Sangalakula L (2012) The Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) and the Illicit Trade in Ivory: a report to the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties. Doc. CoP16 53.2.2, CITES Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland http://www.cites.org/eng/cop/16/doc/E-CoP16-53-02-02.pdf.
26. Milliken T, Burn RW, Sangalakula L (2009) The Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) and the Illicit Trade in Ivory: a report to the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties. Doc. CoP15 44.1 Annex, CITES Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland.
27. UNEP CITES, IUCN, TRAFFIC (2013) Elephants in the dust - the African elephant crisis. A rapid response assessment. United Nations Environment Programme. GRID-Arendal www.grid.no.
28. Burn RW, Underwood FM (2013) A new statistical modelling framework to interpret illegal ivory seizures data. A Technical Report describing the new modelling framework for analysing seizures data from the Elephant Trade Information System. Mathematics report series (1/2013) Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, UK. www.reading.ac.uk/maths-and-stats/research/maths-report-series.aspx. Last accessed 2013 September 6.
29. CITES Secretariat (2013) National Ivory Action Plans, SC64 Doc. 2, Bangkok, Thailand, 14 March 2013http://www.cites.org/eng/com/sc/64/E-SC64-02.pdf.
30. Milliken T (1989) The Japanese trade in ivory: tradition, CITES and the elusive search for sustainable utilisation, in The Ivory Trade and Future of the African Elephant, S.Cobb, Ed. Oxford: Ivory Trade Review Group.
31. Corruption Perceptions Index (annual updates) Transparency International, Berlin, http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview.Last accessed 2012 May 12.
32. United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report (2011) UNDP. http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2011. Last accessed 2012 May 12.
33. International Monetary Fund (2013) World Economic Outlook Database, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/weodata/index.aspx.Last accessed 2012 May 12.
34. World Bank Poverty Indicators, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI.Last accessed 2012 May 12.
35. Milliken T, Burn RW, Sangalakula L (2002) A report on the status of the Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) to the 12th meeting of the Conference of the Parties. Doc. CoP12 34.1 CITES Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland.
36. Gelman A, Hill J (2007) Data Analysis using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
37. Skrondal A, Rabe-Hesketh S (2004) Generalized Latent Variable Modeling. London: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
38. Lunn D, Jackson C, Best NG, Thomas A, Spiegelhalter DJ (2013) The BUGS Book London: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
39. Catchpole EA, Morgan BJT, Freeman SN, (1998) Estimation in parameter-redundant models. Biometrika 84(1): 187-196.
40. Venables WN, Ripley BD (1994) Modern Applied Statistics with S-PLUS (New York: Springer-Verlag, ed. 2.
41. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HB, Rubin DB (2004) Bayesian Data Analysis. London: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, ed. 2.
42. Lunn D, Spiegelhalter D, Thomas A, Best N, (2009) The BUGS project: Evolution, critique, and future directions, Statistics in Medicine. 28: 3049-3067.
43. R Core Team (2012) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, http://www.R-project.org.
44. Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG, Carlin BP, van der Linde A, (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion). J. Royal Statist. Soc. 64(4): 583-639.
45. Milliken T, Burn RW and Sangalakula L (2007) A report on the status of the Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) to the 14th meeting of the Conference of the Parties. CoP14 Doc. 53.2 Annex, CITES Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland. http://www.cites.org/common/cop/15/doc/E15-44-01A.pdf.