Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia

Global Change Biology

Volumn 19, Issue 11, 2013, Pages 3449-3462

  Berner, Logan T ^a   Beck, Pieter S A ^a   Bunn, Andrew G ^b   Goetz, Scott J ^a  

^a WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^b WESTERN WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Basal area increment; Boreal; Cajander larch; Greening; Larix cajanderi Mayr.; NDVI; Russia; Taiga; Tree ring; Treeline

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; ECOTONE; NDVI; PLANT; SHRUBLAND; TREE RING; TUNDRA; WOODLAND;

ARCTIC; KOLYMA BASIN; RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

LARIX; LARIX CAJANDERI;

ARTICLE; BASAL AREA INCREMENT; BOREAL; CAJANDER LARCH; CLIMATE CHANGE; GREENING; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; LARIX; LARIX CAJANDERI MAYR.; NDVI; RUSSIAN FEDERATION; TAIGA; TEMPERATURE; TREE; TREE-RING; TREELINE;

BASAL AREA INCREMENT; BOREAL; CAJANDER LARCH; GREENING; LARIX CAJANDERI MAYR.; NDVI; RUSSIA; TAIGA; TREE-RING; TREELINE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; LARIX; SIBERIA; TEMPERATURE; TREES;

EID: 84885431874     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12304     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Abaimov AP (2010) Geographic distribution and genetics of Siberian larch species. In: Permafrost Ecosystems: Siberian Larch Forests, Vol. 209 (eds Osawa A, Zyryanova OA, Matsuura Y, Kajimoto T, Wein RW), pp. 41-55. Springer, New York.
2. ACIA (2004) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
3. Adams MA (2013) Mega-fires, tipping points and ecosystem services: managing forests and woodlands in an uncertain future. Forest Ecology and Management, 294, 45-63.
4. Alexander H, Mack M, Goetz S et al. (2012) Carbon accumulation patterns during post-fire succession in Cajander Larch (Larix cajanderi) forests of Siberia. Ecosystems, 15, 1065-1082.
5. Alexeyev VA (1995) Impacts of air pollution on far north forest vegetation. Science of the Total Environment, 160-161, 605-617.
6. Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H et al. (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 660-684.
7. Andreu-Hayles L, D'Arrigo R, Anchukaitis KJ, Beck PSA, Frank D, Goetz S (2011) Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 045503.
8. Beck PSA, Goetz SJ (2011a) Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: ecological variability and regional differences. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 045501.
9. Beck PSA, Juday GP, Alix C et al. (2011b) Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift. Ecology Letters, 14, 373-379.
10. Beck PSA, Andreu-Hayles L, D'Arrigo R, Anchukaitis KJ, Tucker CJ, Pinzón JE, Goetz SJ (2013) A large-scale coherent signal of canopy status in maximum latewood density of tree rings at arctic treeline in North America. Global and Planetary Change, 10, 109-118.
11. Berner LT, Beck PSA, Bunn AG, Lloyd AH, Goetz SJ (2011) High-latitude tree growth and satellite vegetation indices: correlations and trends in Russia and Canada (1982-2008). Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, G01015.
12. Berner LT, Beck PSA, Loranty MM, Alexander HD, Mack MC, Goetz SJ (2012) Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) biomass distribution, fire regime and post-fire recovery in northeastern Siberia. Biogeosciences, 9, 3943-3959.
13. Biondi F, Qeadan F (2008) Inequality in paleorecords. Ecology, 89, 1056-1067.
14. Blok D, Sass-Klaassen U, Schaepman-Strub G, Heijmans M, Sauren P, Berendse F (2011) What are the main climate drivers for shrub growth in Northeastern Siberian tundra? Biogeosciences, 8, 1169-1179.
15. Boisvenue C, Running SW (2006) Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity - evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 12, 862-882.
16. Briffa K, Jones P, Schweingruber F, Osborn T (1998) Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years. Nature, 393, 450-455.
17. Bronaugh D, Werner A (2012) zyp: Zhang + Yue-Pilon trends package. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna.
18. Bunn AG (2010) Statistical and visual crossdating in R using the dplR library. Dendrochronologia, 28, 251-258.
19. Bunn AG, Goetz SJ (2006) Trends in satellite-observed circumpolar photosynthetic activity from 1982 to 2003: the influence of seasonality, cover type, and vegetation density. Earth Interactions, 10, 1-19.
20. Bunn AG, Goetz SJ, Fiske GJ (2005) Observed and predicted responses of plant growth to climate across Canada. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L16710.
21. Busetto L, Colombo R, Migliavacca M et al. (2010) Remote sensing of larch phenological cycle and analysis of relationships with climate in the Alpine region. Global Change Biology, 16, 2504-2517.
22. Carrer M, Urbinati C (2004) Age-dependent tree-ring growth responses to climate in Larix decidua and Pinus cembra. Ecology, 85, 730-740.
23. Chapin FS 3rd, Sturm M, Serreze MC et al. (2005) Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming. Science, 310, 657-660.
24. Corradi C, Kolle O, Walter K, Zimov SA, Schulze ED (2005) Carbon dioxide and methane exchange of a north-east Siberian tussock tundra. Global Change Biology, 11, 1910-1925.
25. Dai A (2011) Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2, 45-65.
26. D'Arrigo R, Malmstrom C, Jacoby G, Los S, Bunker D (2000) Correlation between maximum latewood density of annual tree rings and NDVI based estimates of forest productivity. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 21, 2329-2336.
27. Dawdy DR, Matalas NC (1964) Statistical and probability analysis of hydrological data, part III: Analysis of variance, covariance and time series. In: Handbook of Applied Hydrology, a Compendium of Water Resources Technology, (ed. Chow VT), pp. 868-890, McGrawHill, New York.
28. Devi N, Hagedorn F, Moiseev P, Bugmann H, Shiyatov S, Mazepa V, Rigling A (2008) Expanding forests and changing growth forms of Siberian larch at the Polar Urals treeline during the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 14, 1581-1591.
29. Dulamsuren C, Hauck M, Khishigjargal M, Leuschner HH, Leuschner C (2010a) Diverging climate trends in Mongolian taiga forests influence growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica. Oecologia, 163, 1091-1102.
30. Dulamsuren C, Hauck M, Leuschner C (2010b) Recent drought stress leads to growth reductions in Larix sibirica in the western Khentey, Mongolia. Global Change Biology, 16, 3024-3035.
31. Dutrieux L, Bartholomeus H, Herold M, Verbesselt J (2012) Relationships between declining summer sea ice, increasing temperatures and changing vegetation in the Siberian Arctic tundra from MODIS time series (2000-11). Environmental Research Letters, 7, 044028.
32. Forbes BC, Fauria MM, Zetterberg P (2010) Russian Arctic warming and 'greening' are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Global Change Biology, 16, 1542-1554.
33. Frost GV, Epstein H, Walker D, Matyshak G, Ermokhina K (2013) Patterned-ground facilitates shrub expansion in Low Arctic tundra. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 015035.
34. Goetz SJ, Prince SD (1999) Modelling terrestrial carbon exchange and storage: evidence and implications of fuctional convergence in light-use efficiency. Advances in Ecological Research, 28, 57-92.
35. Goetz SJ, Epstein HE, Bhatt U et al. (2011) Recent changes in Arctic vegetation: satellite observations and simulation model predictions. In: Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate (eds Gutman G, Reissell A), pp. 9-36. Springer-Verlag, Amsterdam.
36. Graumlich LJ, Brubaker LB, Grier CC (1989) Long-term trends in forest net primary productivity: Cascade Mountains, Washington. Ecology, 70, 405-410.
37. Groisman P, Soja AJ (2009) Ongoing climatic change in Northern Eurasia: justification for expedient research. Environmental Research Letters, 4, 045002.
38. Groisman PY, Sherstyukov BG, Razuvaev VN et al. (2007) Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: changes during the 20th century. Global and Planetary Change, 56, 371-386.
39. Hansen MC, DeFries RS, Townshend JRG, Carroll M, Dimiceli C, Sohlberg RA (2003) Global percent tree cover at a spatial resolution of 500 meters: first results of the MODIS vegetation continuous fields algorithm. Earth Interactions, 7, 1-15.
40. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Reviews of Geophysics, 48, RG4004.
41. He J, Shao X (2006) Relationships between tree-ring width index and NDVI of grassland in Delingha. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51, 1106-1114.
42. Hijmans RJ, van Etten J (2013) raster: Geographic analysis and modeling with raster data. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna.
43. Hogg EH, Hurdle P (1995) The aspen parkland in western Canada: a dry-climate analogue for the future boreal forest? Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 82, 391-400.
44. Houghton RA (2005) Aboveground forest biomass and the global carbon balance. Global Change Biology, 11, 945-958.
45. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
46. Kajimoto T (2010) Root system development of larch trees growing on Siberian permafrost. In: Permafrost Ecosystems, Vol. 209 (eds Osawa A, Zyryanova OA, Matsuura Y, Kajimoto T, Wein RW), pp. 303-330. Springer, New York.
47. Kajimoto T, Matsuura Y, Osawa A, Prokushkin AS, Sofronov MA, Abaimov AP (2003) Root system development of Larix gmelinii trees affected by micro-scale conditions of permafrost soils in central Siberia. Plant and Soil, 255, 281-292.
48. Kajimoto T, Osawa A, Usoltev VA, Abaimov AP (2010) Biomass and productivity of Siberian larch forest ecosystems. In: Permafrost Ecosystems: Siberian Larch Forests, Vol. 209 (eds Osawa A, Zyryanova OA, Matsuura Y, Kajimoto T, Wein RW), pp. 99-122. Springer, New York.
49. Kharuk VI, Ranson KJ, Dvinskaya ML, Im ST (2011) Wildfires in northern Siberian larch dominated communities. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 045208.
50. Kirdyanov A, Hughes M, Vaganov E, Schweingruber F, Silkin P (2003) The importance of early summer temperature and date of snow melt for tree growth in the Siberian Subarctic. Trees, 17, 61-69.
51. Kirdyanov AV, Treydte KS, Nikolaev A, Helle G, Schleser GH (2008) Climate signals in tree-ring width, density and δ13C from larches in Eastern Siberia (Russia). Chemical Geology, 252, 31-41.
52. Kirdyanov AV, Hagedorn F, Knorre AA et al. (2012) 20th century tree-line advance and vegetation changes along an altitudinal transect in the Putorana Mountains, northern Siberia. Boreas, 41, 56-67.
53. Knorre AA, Kirdyanov AV, Vaganov EA (2006) Climatically induced interannual variability in aboveground production in forest-tundra and northern taiga of central Siberia. Oecologia, 147, 86-95.
54. Koven CD (2013) Boreal carbon loss due to poleward shift in low-carbon ecosystems. Nature Geoscience, 6, 452-456.
55. Lapenis A, Shvidenko A, Shepaschenko D, Nilsson S, Aiyyer A (2005) Acclimation of Russian forests to recent changes in climate. Global Change Biology, 11, 2090-2102.
56. Lloyd AH, Bunn AG, Berner L (2010) A latitudinal gradient in tree growth response to climate warming in the Siberian taiga. Global Change Biology, 17, 1935-1945.
57. Lopatin E, Kolstrom T, Spiecker H (2006) Determination of forest growth trends in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia): combination of tree-ring analysis and remote sensing data. Boreal Environment Research, 11, 341-353.
58. MacDonald GM, Kremenetski KV, Beilman DW (2008) Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Biological Sciences, 363, 2285-2299.
59. Matsuura Y, Hirobe M (2010) Soil carbon and nitrogen, and characteristics of soil active layer in Siberian permafrost region. In: Permafrost Ecosystems: Siberian Larch Forests, Vol. 209 (eds Osawa A, Zyryanova OA, Matsuura Y, Kajimoto T, Wein RW), pp. 149-163. Springer, New York.
60. Maximov T, Ohta T, Dolman AJ (2008) Water and energy exchange in East Siberian forest: a synthesis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 2013-2018.
61. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.
62. Muggeo VM (2003) Estimating regression models with unknown break-points. Statistics in Medicine, 22, 3055-3071.
63. Muggeo VM (2008) Segmented: an R Package to fit regression models with broken-line relationships. R News, 8, 6.
64. Myers-Smith IH, Forbes BC, Wilmking M et al. (2011) Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 045509.
65. Myneni RB, Keeling CD, Tucker CJ, Asrar G, Nemani RR (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature, 386, 698-702.
66. Nilsson S, Blauberg K, Samarskaia E, Kharuk V (1997) Pollution stress of Siberian forests. In: NATA Advanced Research Workshop on Air Pollution in the Ural mountains, Vol. 40 (eds Linkov I, Wilson R), pp. 31-54. Springer, Magnitogorsk, Russia.
67. Noetzli J, Gruber S, Kohl T, Salzmann N, Haeberli W (2007) Three-dimensional distribution and evolution of permafrost temperatures in idealized high-mountain topography. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, F02S13.
68. Osawa A, Kajimoto T (2010) Development of Stand Structure in Larch Forests. In: Permafrost Ecosystems: Siberian Larch Forests Vol. 209 (eds Osawa A, Zyryanova OA, Matsuura Y, Kajimoto T, Wein RW), pp. 123-147. Springer, New York.
69. Pearson RG, Phillips SJ, Loranty MM, Beck PSA, Damoulas T, Knight SJ, Goetz SJ (2013) Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3, 673-677.
70. R Core Team (2012) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna.
71. Ranson KJ, Montesano PM, Nelson R (2011) Object-based mapping of the circumpolar taiga-tundra ecotone with MODIS tree cover. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115, 3670-3680.
72. Rocha AV (2013) Tracking carbon within the trees. New Phytologist, 197, 685-686.
73. Romanovsky VE, Sazonova TS, Balobaev VT, Shender NI, Sergueev DO (2007) Past and recent changes in air and permafrost temperatures in eastern Siberia. Global and Planetary Change, 56, 399-413.
74. Scheffer M, Hirota M, Holmgren M, Van Nes EH, Chapin FS (2012) Thresholds for boreal biome transitions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 21384-21389.
75. Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Ziese M (2011) GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 at 0.5°: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historic Data. German Meteorological Service Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Offenback am Main.
76. Shuman JK, Shugart HH (2009) Evaluating the sensitivity of Eurasian forest biomass to climate change using a dynamic vegetation model. Environmental Research Letters, 4, 045024.
77. Shuman JK, Shugart HH, O'Halloran TL (2011) Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change. Global Change Biology, 17, 2370-2384.
78. Sidorova OV, Siegwolf RT, Saurer M et al. (2009) Do centennial tree-ring and stable isotope trends of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. indicate increasing water shortage in the Siberian north? Oecologia, 161, 825-835.
79. Sidorova OV, Siegwolf RTW, Saurer M, Naurzbaev MM, Shashkin AV, Vaganov EA (2010) Spatial patterns of climatic changes in the Eurasian north reflected in Siberian larch tree-ring parameters and stable isotopes. Global Change Biology, 16, 1003-1018.
80. Sofronov MA, Volokitina AV (2010) Wildfire ecology in continuous permafrost zone. In: Permafrost Ecosystems: Siberian Larch Forests, Vol. 209 (eds Osawa A, Zyryanova OA, Matsuura Y, Kajimoto T, Wein RW), pp. 59-83. Springer, New York.
81. Soja AJ, Tchebakova NM, French NHF et al. (2007) Climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations. Global and Planetary Change, 56, 274-296.
82. Stanhill G, Cohen S (2001) Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 107, 255-278.
83. Sturm M, Racine C, Tape K (2001) Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature, 411, 546-547.
84. Suzuki R, Tanaka S, Yasunari T (2000) Relationships between meridional profiles of satellite-derived vegetation index (NDVI) and climate over Siberia. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 955-967.
85. Suzuki R, Nomaki T, Yasunari T (2001) Spatial distribution and its seasonality of satellite-derived vegetation index (NDVI) and climate in Siberia. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 1321-1335.
86. Tchebakova NM, Rehfeldt GE, Parfenova EI (2010) From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems. In: Permafrost Ecosystems: Siberian Larch Forests, Vol. 209 (eds Osawa A, Zyryanova OA, Matsuura Y, Kajimoto T, Wein RW), pp. 501. Springer, New York.
87. Vaganov EA, Hughes MK, Kirdyanov AV, Schweingruber FH, Silkin PP (1999) Influence of snowfall and melt timing on tree growth in subarctic Eurasia. Nature, 400, 149-151.
88. Vygodskaya NN, Groisman PY, Tchebakova NM, Kurbatova JA, Panfyorov O, Parfenova EI, Sogachev AF (2007) Ecosystems and climate interactions in the boreal zone of northern Eurasia. Environmental Research Letters, 2, 045033.
89. Williams AP, Allen CD, Macalady AK et al. (2013) Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nature Climate Change, 3, 292-297.
90. Wu X, Liu H, Guo D, Anenkhonov OA, Badmaeva NK, Sandanov DV (2012) Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests. PLoS ONE, 7, e42619.
91. Xu L, Myneni RB, Chapin FS III, et al. (2013) Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands. Nature Climate Change, 3, 581-586.
92. Yanagihara Y, Koike T, Matsuura Y et al. (2000) Soil Respiration Rate on the Contrasting North- and South-Facing Slopes of a Larch Forest in Central Siberia. Eurasian Journal of Forest Research, 1, 19-29.
93. Zang C, Biondi F (2012) Dendroclimatic calibration in R: the bootRes package for response and correlation function analysis. Dendrochronologia, 31, 68-74.
94. Zimov NS, Zimov SA, Zimova AE, Zimova GM, Chuprynin VI, Chapin FS (2009) Carbon storage in permafrost and soils of the mammoth tundra-steppe biome: role in the global carbon budget. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L02502.