Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Climatic Change

Volumn 120, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 889-901

  Winiwarter, Wilfried ^a,b   Erisman, Jan Willem ^c,d   Galloway, James N ^e   Klimont, Zbigniew ^a   Sutton, Mark A ^f  

^a INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GRAZ   (Austria)

^c LOUIS BOLK INSTITUTE   (Netherlands)

^d VU UNIVERSITY AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^e UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA   (United States)

^f CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY; AGRICULTURAL USE; ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACTS; BIOFUEL PRODUCTION; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; INDUSTRIAL NITROGEN; NITROGEN CYCLES; POPULATION GROWTH;

AGRICULTURE; BIOFUELS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ESTIMATION; GREENHOUSE GASES; INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH; NITROGEN; POPULATION STATISTICS;

NITROGEN FIXATION;

AGRICULTURE; ANIMAL; BIOFUEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMBUSTION; EXPLOSIVE; GREENHOUSE GAS; HUMAN ACTIVITY; NITROGEN CYCLE; NITROGEN FIXATION; POPULATION GROWTH; PROTEIN; RESEARCH;

ANIMALIA;

EID: 84884703181     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0834-0     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J (2012) World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No. 12-03, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
2. Bleeker A, Hicks WK, Dentener F, Galloway J, Erisman JW (2011) N deposition as a threat to the World's protected areas under the convention on biological diversity. Environ Pollut 159: 2280-2288.
3. 2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle-current state and future scenarios. Biogeosciences 9: 4169-4197.
4. Bouwman AF, Beusen AHW, Billen G (2009) Human alteration of the global nitrogen and phosphorus soil balances for the period 1970-2050. Global Biogeochem Cycles 23: GB0A04.
5. Butterbach-Bahl K, Nemitz E, Zaehle S et al (2011) Effect of reactive nitrogen on the European greenhouse balance. In: Sutton MA, Howard CM, Erisman JW, Billen G, Bleeker A, Grennfelt P, van Grinsven H, Grizzetti B (eds) The European nitrogen assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 434-462.
6. Carpenter SR, Pingali PL, Bennett EM, Zurek MB (eds) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: scenarios. Findings of the scenarios working group of the millennium ecosystem assessment. Island Press, Washington.
7. Clarke L, Edmonds J, Jacoby H, Pitcher H, Reilly J, Richels R (2007) Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations. Sub-report 2. 1A of synthesis and assessment product 2. 1 by the U. S. Climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC.
8. Davidson EA (2012) Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide. Environ Res Lett 7: 024005.
9. EEA (1998) Guidelines for data collection and processing - EU State of the environment report. annex 3. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
10. Elser JJ (2011) A world awash with nitrogen. Science 334: 1504-1505.
11. Erisman JW, Sutton MA, Galloway JN, Klimont Z, Winiwarter W (2008) How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world. Nature Geoscie 1: 636-639.
12. Forster P, Ramaswamy V, Artaxo P et al (2007) Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 129-234.
13. Galloway JN, Aber JD, Erisman JW, Seitzinger SP, Howarth RW, Cowling EB, Cosby BJ (2003) The nitrogen cascade. BioScience 53: 341-356.
14. Galloway JN, Townsend AR, Erisman JW et al (2008) Transformation of the nitrogen cycle: recent trends, questions and potential solutions. Science 320: 889-892.
15. Grübler A, O'Neill B, Riahi K et al (2007) Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74: 980-1029.
16. -2 radiative forcing. Clim Chang 109: 59-76.
17. Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behrens WW III (1972) The limits to growth. Universe Books, New York.
18. Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747-756.
19. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
20. O'Neill B (2005) Population scenarios based on probabilistic projections: an application for the millennium ecosystem assessment. Popul Environ 26: 229-254.
21. OECD (2008) Environmental performance of OECD agriculture since 1990. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Paris.
22. Pimentel D, Hurd LE, Bellotti AC, Forster MJ, Oka IN, Sholes OD, Whitman RJ (1973) Food production and the energy crisis. Science 182: 443-449.
23. Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V et al (2011) RCP 8. 5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang 109: 33-57.
24. Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K et al (2009) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461: 472-475.
25. Sutton MA, van Grinsven H, Billen G et al (2011a) Summary for Policy Makers. In: Sutton MA, Howard CM, Erisman JW, Billen G, Bleeker A, Grennfelt P, van Grinsven H, Grizzetti B (eds) The European nitrogen assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp xxiv-xxxiv.
26. Sutton MA, Oenema O, Erisman JW, Leip A, van Grinsven H, Winiwarter W (2011b) Too much of a good thing. Nature 472: 159-161.
27. Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ et al (2011) RCP4. 5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109: 77-94.
28. Tilman D (1998) The greening of the green revolution. Nature 396: 211-212.
29. Tilman D, Hill J, Lehman C (2006) Carbon-negative biofuels from low-input high-diversity grassland biomass. Science 314: 1598-1600.
30. Tilman D, Fargione J, Wolff B et al (2001) Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change. Science 292: 281-284.
31. Turner GM (2012) On the cusp of global collapse? Updated comparison of the limits to growth with historical data. Gaia 21(2): 116-124.
32. USEPA-SAB (2011) Reactive Nitrogen in the United States: An analysis of inputs, flows, consequences, and management options. A Report of the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board. EPA-SAB-11-013, Washington, DC, U. S. A.
33. United Nations (2004) World population to 2300. Population division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
34. United Nations (2005) World urbanization prospects: the 2005 revision. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
35. United Nations (2007) World population prospects the 2006 revision, population division. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
36. van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MGJ, van Vliet J, Isaac M (2010) Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3 W/m2 in 2100. Energ Econ 32: 1105-1120.
37. van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M et al (2011a) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109: 5-31.
38. van Vuuren DP, Bouwman LF, Smith SJ, Dentener F (2011b) Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 3: 359-369.
39. van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, Elzen MGJ et al (2011c) RCP2. 6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Clim Chang 109: 95-116.
40. van Vuuren DP, Riahi K, Moss R et al (2012) A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Glob Environ Chang 22: 21-35.
41. Wijffels RH, Barbosa MJ (2010) An outlook on microalgal biofuels. Science 329: 796-799.
42. Winiwarter W, Hettelingh JP, Bouwman AF et al (2011) Future scenarios of nitrogen in Europe. In: Sutton MA, Howard CM, Erisman JW, Billen G, Bleeker A, Grennfelt P, van Grinsven H, Grizzetti B (eds) The European nitrogen assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 551-569.