On the cusp of global collapse?: Updated comparison of the Limits to Growth with historical data

GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society

Volumn 21, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 116-124

  Turner, Graham M ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Collapse; Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI); Limits; Peak oil

Indexed keywords

EID: 84863314384     PISSN: 09405550     EISSN: 26255413     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.14512/gaia.21.2.10     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Alghalith, M. 2010. The interaction between food prices and oil prices. Energy Economics 32/6:1520-1522.
2. Bardi, U. 2011. The limits to growth revisited. New York: Springer.
3. BP (British Petroleum). 2011. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011. London: BP.
4. Chen, S.-T., H.-I. Kuo, C.-C. Chen. 2010. Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices. Applied Energy 87/8:2517-2525.
5. Dale, M., S. Krumdieck, P. Bodger. 2011. Net energy yield from production of conventional oil. Energy Policy 39/11:7095-7102.
6. Das, S. 2011. Extreme money: Masters of the universe and the cult of risk. Upper Saddle River, NJ: FT Press.
7. Diamond, J. 2005. Collapse: How societies choose to fail or survive. New York: Penguin.
8. st century. Energy Policy 39/12:7865-7873.
9. Friedrichs, J. 2010. Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario. Energy Policy 38/8:4562-4569.
10. Greer, J. M. 2005. How civilizations fall: A theory of catabolic collapse. www.dylan.org.uk/greer-on-collapse.pdf (accessed May 28, 2012).
11. Greer, J. M. 2008. The long descent: A user's guide to the end of the industrial age. Gabriola Island, BC: New Society.
12. Hall, C. A. S., J. W. Day. 2009. Revisiting the limits to growth after peak oil. American Scientist 97/3:230-237.
13. Hamilton, J. D. 2009. Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007-08. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 215-283.
14. Heinberg, R. 2007. Peak everything: Waking up to the century of declines. Gabriola Island, BC: New Society.
15. Heinberg, R. 2009. Searching for a miracle: "Net energy" limits and the fate of industrial society. San Francisco: IFG (International Forum on Globalization), PCI (Post Carbon Institute). False Solution Series 4. www.ifg.org/pdf/Searching%20for%20a%20Miracle-web10nov09.pdf (accessed May 28, 2012).
16. Heinberg, R. 2011. The end of growth: Adapting to our new economic reality. Gabriola Island, BC: New Society.
17. Heun, M. K., M. de Wit. 2012. Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI), oil prices, and energy transitions. Energy Policy 40:147-158.
18. Hirsch, R. L. 2008. Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios. Energy Policy 36:881-889.
19. Hirsch, R. L, R. Bezdek, R. Wendling. 2005. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation and risk management. Washington, D. C.: DOE (U. S. Department of Energy) NETL (National Energy Technology Laboratory).
20. Keen, S. 2009. Bailing out the titanic with a thimble. Economic Analysis & Policy 39/1:3-25.
21. Lomborg, B., O. Rubin. 2002. The dustbin of history: Limits to growth. Foreign Policy 133:42-44.
22. Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Randers. 1992. Beyond the limits: Global collapse or a sustainable future. London: Earthscan.
23. Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, W. W. Behrens III. 1972. The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books.
24. Meadows, D. H., J. Randers, D. L. Meadows. 2004. Limits to growth: The 30-year update. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green.
25. Meadows, D. L., W. W. Behrens III, D. H. Meadows, R. F. Naill, J. Randers, E. K. O. Zahn. 1974. Dynamics of growth in a finite world. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen.
26. Murphy, D. J., C. A. S. Hall. 2010. Year in review: EROI or energy return on (energy) invested. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185/1:102-118.
27. Murphy, D. J., C. A. S. Hall. 2011. Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1219/1:52-72.
28. Murray, J., D. King. 2012. Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed. Nature 481/7382:433-435.
29. Neff, R. A., C. L. Parker, F. L. Kirschenmann, J. Tinch, R. S. Lawrence. 2011. Peak oil, food systems, and public health. American Journal of Public Health 101/9:1587-1597.
30. Nel, W. P., C. J. Cooper. 2009. Implications of fossil fuel constraints on econom ic growth and global warming. Energy Policy 37/1:166-180.
31. Orlov, D. 2008. Reinventing collapse. Gabriola Island, BC: New Society.
32. Randers, J. 2012a. 2052: A global forecast for the next forty years. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green.
33. Randers, J. 2012b. The real message of The Limits to Growth. A plea for forward-looking global policy. GAIA 21/2:102-105.
34. Raskin, P. D., C. Electris, R. A. Rosen. 2010. The century ahead: Searching for sustainability. Sustainability 2/8:2626-2651.
35. Schwartz, B. S., C. L. Parker, J. Hess, H. Frumkin. 2011. Public health and medicine in an age of energy scarcity: The case of petroleum. American Journal of Public Health 101/9:1560-1567.
36. Simmons, M. R. 2000. Revisiting The Limits to Growth: Could the Club of Rome have been correct, after all? An energy white paper. http://greatchange. org/ov-simmons, club-of-rome-revisted.html (accessed May 28, 2012).
37. Sorrell, S., J. Speirs, R. Bentley, A. Brandt, R. Miller. 2010a. Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence. Energy Policy 38/9:5290-5295.
38. Sorrell, S., R. Miller, R. Bentley, J. Speirs. 2010b. Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts. Energy Policy 38/9:4990-5003.
39. Tainter, J. A. 1988. The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
40. Turner, G. M. 2008a. A comparison of "The Limits to Growth" with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18/3:397-411.
41. Turner, G. M. 2008b. A comparison of the Limits to Growth with thirty years of reality. Canberra: CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation). Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper 19. www.csiro.au/en/Outcomes/Environment/Population- Sustainability/SEEDPaper19.asp (accessed May 28, 2012).
42. th issue. New York: UN.
43. nd issue. New York: UN.