메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 27, Issue 15, 2013, Pages 2471-2479

Modelling HIV incidence and survival from agespecific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa

Author keywords

Antiretroviral treatment; HIV; Incidence; Mathematical model; Seroprevalence; South Africa; Survival

Indexed keywords

ANTIRETROVIRUS AGENT;

EID: 84884500651     PISSN: 02699370     EISSN: 14735571     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/01.aids.0000432475.14992.da     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (30)

References (44)
  • 1
    • 79961123140 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verbal autopsy-based cause-specific mortality trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2000-2009
    • Herbst AJ, Mafojane T, Newell ML. Verbal autopsy-based cause-specific mortality trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2000-2009. Popul Health Metr 2011; 9:47.
    • (2011) Popul Health Metr , vol.9 , pp. 47
    • Herbst, A.J.1    Mafojane, T.2    Newell, M.L.3
  • 2
    • 84874147989 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: Valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment
    • Bor J, Herbst AJ, Newell ML, Bärnighausen T. Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment. Science 2013; 339:961-965.
    • (2013) Science , vol.339 , pp. 961-965
    • Bor, J.1    Herbst, A.J.2    Newell, M.L.3    Bärnighausen, T.4
  • 3
    • 84876921893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Life expectancies of South african adults starting antiretroviral treatment: Collaborative analysis of cohort studies
    • Johnson LF, Mossong J, Dorrington RE, Schomaker M, Hoffmann CJ, Keiser O, et al. Life expectancies of South african adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies. PLoS Med 2013; 10:e1001418.
    • (2013) PLoS Med , vol.10
    • Johnson, L.F.1    Mossong, J.2    Dorrington, R.E.3    Schomaker, M.4    Hoffmann, C.J.5    Keiser, O.6
  • 4
    • 64849110820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lack of a decline in HIV incidence in a rural community with high HIV prevalence in South Africa, 2003-2007
    • Bärnighausen T, Tanser F, Newell ML. Lack of a decline in HIV incidence in a rural community with high HIV prevalence in South Africa, 2003-2007. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 2009; 25:405-409.
    • (2009) AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses , vol.25 , pp. 405-409
    • Bärnighausen, T.1    Tanser, F.2    Newell, M.L.3
  • 5
    • 84884501669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dramatic increases in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment
    • [Epub ahead of print]
    • Zaidi J, Grapsa E, Tanser F, Newell ML, Bärnighausen T. Dramatic increases in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment. AIDS 2013[Epub ahead of print].
    • (2013) AIDS
    • Zaidi, J.1    Grapsa, E.2    Tanser, F.3    Newell, M.L.4    Bärnighausen, T.5
  • 6
    • 84874177025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High coverage of ART associated with decline in risk of HIV acquisition in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
    • Tanser F, Bärnighausen T, Grapsa E, Zaidi J, Newell ML. High coverage of ART associated with decline in risk of HIV acquisition in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Science 2013; 339:966-971.
    • (2013) Science , vol.339 , pp. 966-971
    • Tanser, F.1    Bärnighausen, T.2    Grapsa, E.3    Zaidi, J.4    Newell, M.L.5
  • 7
    • 84860714622 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pretoria, South Africa: South African National AIDS Council (Accessed 11 July 2013)
    • National Strategic Plan for HIV, STIs and TB (2012-2016). Pretoria, South Africa: South African National AIDS Council; 2011; http://www.info.gov.za/view/ DownloadFileAction?id= 155622 (Accessed 11 July 2013).
    • (2011) National Strategic Plan for HIV, STIs and TB (2012-2016)
  • 8
    • 77954970838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring the HIV/AIDS epidemic: Approaches and challenges
    • Brookmeyer R. Measuring the HIV/AIDS epidemic: approaches and challenges. Epidemiol Rev 2010; 32:26-37.
    • (2010) Epidemiol Rev , vol.32 , pp. 26-37
    • Brookmeyer, R.1
  • 9
    • 37349093400 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High HIV incidence in a community with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa: Findings from a prospective population-based study
    • Bärnighausen T, Tanser F, Gqwede Z, Mbizana C, Herbst K, Newell ML. High HIV incidence in a community with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa: findings from a prospective population-based study. AIDS 2008; 22:139-144.
    • (2008) AIDS , vol.22 , pp. 139-144
    • Bärnighausen, T.1    Tanser, F.2    Gqwede, Z.3    Mbizana, C.4    Herbst, K.5    Newell, M.L.6
  • 10
    • 77954304458 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: Systematic review and sensitivity analysis
    • Bärnighausen T, McWalter TA, Rosner Z, Newell ML, Welte A. HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis. Epidemiology 2010; 21:685-697.
    • (2010) Epidemiology , vol.21 , pp. 685-697
    • Bärnighausen, T.1    McWalter, T.A.2    Rosner, Z.3    Newell, M.L.4    Welte, A.5
  • 11
    • 56149112558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • HIV incidence in rural South Africa: Comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing
    • Bärnighausen T, Wallrauch C, Welte A, McWalter TA, Mbizana N, Viljoen J, et al. HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing. PLoS One 2008; 3:e3640.
    • (2008) PLoS One , vol.3
    • Bärnighausen, T.1    Wallrauch, C.2    Welte, A.3    McWalter, T.A.4    Mbizana, N.5    Viljoen, J.6
  • 12
    • 66549095163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age
    • Hallett TB, Ghys P, Bärnighausen T, Yan P, Garnett GP. Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age. PLoS One 2009; 4:e5720.
    • (2009) PLoS One , vol.4
    • Hallett, T.B.1    Ghys, P.2    Bärnighausen, T.3    Yan, P.4    Garnett, G.P.5
  • 13
    • 79951810356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the HIV incidence rate: Recent and future developments
    • Hallett TB. Estimating the HIV incidence rate: recent and future developments. Curr Opin HIV AIDS 2011; 6:102-107.
    • (2011) Curr Opin HIV AIDS , vol.6 , pp. 102-107
    • Hallett, T.B.1
  • 15
    • 43249095785 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: Methods and validation
    • Hallett TB, Zaba B, Todd J, Lopman B, Mwita W, Biraro S, et al. Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation. PLoS Med 2008; 5:e80.
    • (2008) PLoS Med , vol.5
    • Hallett, T.B.1    Zaba, B.2    Todd, J.3    Lopman, B.4    Mwita, W.5    Biraro, S.6
  • 16
    • 0029979851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demographic approaches to the estimation of incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data in stable endemic conditions
    • Gregson S, Donnelly CA, Parker CG, Anderson RM. Demographic approaches to the estimation of incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data in stable endemic conditions. AIDS 1996; 10:1689-1697.
    • (1996) AIDS , vol.10 , pp. 1689-1697
    • Gregson, S.1    Donnelly, C.A.2    Parker, C.G.3    Anderson, R.M.4
  • 17
    • 33846225587 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating incidence of HIV infection in childbearing age African women using serial prevalence data from antenatal clinics
    • Sakarovitch C, Alioum A, Ekouevi DK, Msellati P, Leroy V, Dabis F. Estimating incidence of HIV infection in childbearing age African women using serial prevalence data from antenatal clinics. Stat Med 2007; 26:320-335.
    • (2007) Stat Med , vol.26 , pp. 320-335
    • Sakarovitch, C.1    Alioum, A.2    Ekouevi, D.K.3    Msellati, P.4    Leroy, V.5    Dabis, F.6
  • 18
    • 0035879409 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations
    • Williams B, Gouws E, Wilkinson D, Karim SA. Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations. Stat Med 2001; 20:2003-2016.
    • (2001) Stat Med , vol.20 , pp. 2003-2016
    • Williams, B.1    Gouws, E.2    Wilkinson, D.3    Karim, S.A.4
  • 20
    • 0029659571 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation of a method to estimate age-specific human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence rates in developing countries using population-based seroprevalence data
    • Saidel T, Sokal D, Rice J, Buzingo T, Hassig S. Validation of a method to estimate age-specific human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence rates in developing countries using population-based seroprevalence data. Am J Epidemiol 1996; 144:214-223.
    • (1996) Am J Epidemiol , vol.144 , pp. 214-223
    • Saidel, T.1    Sokal, D.2    Rice, J.3    Buzingo, T.4    Hassig, S.5
  • 21
    • 6844226200 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Age- and sex-specific HIV-1 prevalence in the urban community setting of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
    • Fontanet AL, Messele T, Dejene A, Enquselassie F, Abebe A, Cutts FT, et al. Age- and sex-specific HIV-1 prevalence in the urban community setting of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. AIDS 1998; 12:315-322.
    • (1998) AIDS , vol.12 , pp. 315-322
    • Fontanet, A.L.1    Messele, T.2    Dejene, A.3    Enquselassie, F.4    Abebe, A.5    Cutts, F.T.6
  • 22
    • 79952333099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda: A systematic comparison of multiple methods
    • Kim AA, Hallett T, Stover J, Gouws E, Musinguzi J, Mureithi PK, et al. Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda: a systematic comparison of multiple methods. PLoS One 2011; 6:e17535.
    • (2011) PLoS One , vol.6
    • Kim, A.A.1    Hallett, T.2    Stover, J.3    Gouws, E.4    Musinguzi, J.5    Mureithi, P.K.6
  • 24
    • 34250875797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Continued very high prevalence of HIV infection in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A population-based longitudinal study
    • Welz T, Hosegood V, Jaffar S, Batzing-Feigenbaum J, Herbst K, Newell ML. Continued very high prevalence of HIV infection in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a population-based longitudinal study. AIDS 2007; 21:1467-1472.
    • (2007) AIDS , vol.21 , pp. 1467-1472
    • Welz, T.1    Hosegood, V.2    Jaffar, S.3    Batzing-Feigenbaum, J.4    Herbst, K.5    Newell, M.L.6
  • 25
    • 53349122073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cohort profile: Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) and population-based HIV survey
    • Tanser F, Hosegood V, Bärnighausen T, Herbst K, Nyirenda M, Muhwava W, et al. Cohort profile: Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) and population-based HIV survey. Int J Epidemiol 2008; 37:956-962.
    • (2008) Int J Epidemiol , vol.37 , pp. 956-962
    • Tanser, F.1    Hosegood, V.2    Bärnighausen, T.3    Herbst, K.4    Nyirenda, M.5    Muhwava, W.6
  • 26
    • 36349006369 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time from HIV seroconversion to death: A collaborative analysis of eight studies in six low and middle-income countries before highly active antiretroviral therapy
    • Todd J, Glynn JR, Marston M, Lutalo T, Biraro S, Mwita W, et al. Time from HIV seroconversion to death: a collaborative analysis of eight studies in six low and middle-income countries before highly active antiretroviral therapy. AIDS 2007; 21 (Suppl 6):S55-S63.
    • (2007) AIDS , vol.21 , Issue.SUPPL. 6
    • Todd, J.1    Glynn, J.R.2    Marston, M.3    Lutalo, T.4    Biraro, S.5    Mwita, W.6
  • 27
    • 45849108813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics
    • Lopman B, Gregson S. When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics. PLoS One 2008; 3:e1711.
    • (2008) PLoS One , vol.3
    • Lopman, B.1    Gregson, S.2
  • 28
    • 36348949078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Age-specific mortality patterns in HIV-infected individuals: A comparative analysis of African community study data
    • Zaba B, Marston M, Crampin AC, Isingo R, Biraro S, Bärnighausen T, et al. Age-specific mortality patterns in HIV-infected individuals: a comparative analysis of African community study data. AIDS 2007; 21 (Suppl 6):S87-S96.
    • (2007) AIDS , vol.21 , Issue.SUPPL. 6
    • Zaba, B.1    Marston, M.2    Crampin, A.C.3    Isingo, R.4    Biraro, S.5    Bärnighausen, T.6
  • 29
    • 0022354857 scopus 로고
    • The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data
    • Grenfell BT, Anderson RM. The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data. J Hyg (Lond) 1985; 95:419-436.
    • (1985) J Hyg (Lond) , vol.95 , pp. 419-436
    • Grenfell, B.T.1    Anderson, R.M.2
  • 30
    • 79961135005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R Development Core Team. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing
    • R Development Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2011.
    • (2011) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
  • 31
    • 0022855833 scopus 로고
    • Estimating incidence from age-specific prevalence for irreversible diseases with differential mortality
    • Podgor MJ, Leske MC. Estimating incidence from age-specific prevalence for irreversible diseases with differential mortality. Stat Med 1986; 5:573-578.
    • (1986) Stat Med , vol.5 , pp. 573-578
    • Podgor, M.J.1    Leske, M.C.2
  • 32
    • 84921702413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interaction revisited: The difference between two estimates
    • Altman DG, Bland JM. Interaction revisited: the difference between two estimates. BMJ 2003; 326:219.
    • (2003) BMJ , vol.326 , pp. 219
    • Altman, D.G.1    Bland, J.M.2
  • 33
    • 77955240434 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A decline in new HIV infections in South Africa: Estimating HIV incidence from three national HIV surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008
    • Rehle TM, Hallett TB, Shisana O, Pillay-van Wyk V, Zuma K, Carrara H, et al. A decline in new HIV infections in South Africa: estimating HIV incidence from three national HIV surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008. PLoS One 2010; 5:e11094.
    • (2010) PLoS One , vol.5
    • Rehle, T.M.1    Hallett, T.B.2    Shisana, O.3    Pillay-Van Wyk, V.4    Zuma, K.5    Carrara, H.6
  • 36
    • 77649260008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decline in early life mortality in a high HIV prevalence rural area of South Africa: Evidence of HIV prevention or treatment impact?
    • Ndirangu J, Newell ML, Tanser F, Herbst AJ, Bland R. Decline in early life mortality in a high HIV prevalence rural area of South Africa: evidence of HIV prevention or treatment impact? AIDS 2010; 24:593-602.
    • (2010) AIDS , vol.24 , pp. 593-602
    • Ndirangu, J.1    Newell, M.L.2    Tanser, F.3    Herbst, A.J.4    Bland, R.5
  • 37
  • 38
    • 0036606694 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sexual mixing patterns and sex-differentials in teenage exposure to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe
    • Gregson S, Nyamukapa CA, Garnett GP, Mason PR, Zhuwau T, Carael M, et al. Sexual mixing patterns and sex-differentials in teenage exposure to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe. Lancet 2002; 359:1896-1903.
    • (2002) Lancet , vol.359 , pp. 1896-1903
    • Gregson, S.1    Nyamukapa, C.A.2    Garnett, G.P.3    Mason, P.R.4    Zhuwau, T.5    Carael, M.6
  • 39
    • 20444502612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Contact surface models for infectious diseases: Estimation from serologic survey data
    • Farrington CP, Whitaker HJ. Contact surface models for infectious diseases: estimation from serologic survey data. J Am Stat Assoc 2005; 100:370-379.
    • (2005) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.100 , pp. 370-379
    • Farrington, C.P.1    Whitaker, H.J.2
  • 41
    • 41549103774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases
    • Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, Mikolajczyk R, et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med 2008; 5:e74.
    • (2008) PLoS Med , vol.5
    • Mossong, J.1    Hens, N.2    Jit, M.3    Beutels, P.4    Auranen, K.5    Mikolajczyk, R.6
  • 42
    • 84866323037 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical considerations in determining HIV incidence from changes in HIV prevalence
    • Brookmeyer R, Konikoff J. Statistical considerations in determining HIV incidence from changes in HIV prevalence. Stat Commun Infect Dis 2011:3See http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/scid.2011.3.issue-1/1948-4690.1044/1948-4690. 1044.xml?format=INT.
    • (2011) Stat Commun Infect Dis , vol.3
    • Brookmeyer, R.1    Konikoff, J.2
  • 43
    • 84864475438 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • HIV treatment as prevention: Systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa
    • Eaton JW, Johnson LF, Salomon JA, Bärnighausen T, Bendavid E, Bershteyn A, et al. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Med 2012; 9:e1001245.
    • (2012) PLoS Med , vol.9
    • Eaton, J.W.1    Johnson, L.F.2    Salomon, J.A.3    Bärnighausen, T.4    Bendavid, E.5    Bershteyn, A.6
  • 44
    • 0000308264 scopus 로고
    • Age-specific incidence and prevalence: A statistical perspective
    • Keiding N. Age-specific incidence and prevalence: a statistical perspective. J Roy Stat Soc Series A (Statistics in Society) 1991; 154:371-412.
    • (1991) J Roy Stat Soc Series A (Statistics in Society) , vol.154 , pp. 371-412
    • Keiding, N.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.