Steps toward "useful" hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

Water Resources Research

Volumn 47, Issue 6, 2011, Pages

  Kiem, Anthony S ^a   Verdon Kidd, Danielle C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE PROCESS; CLIMATE SCIENCE; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; EXTREME EVENTS; GLOBAL SCALE; HYDROCLIMATIC; HYDROLOGICAL PROCESS; MODEL REPRESENTATION; MURRAY-DARLING BASIN; REGIONAL SCALE; RESOURCE MANAGERS; RISK PROFILING; TEMPORAL SCALE; WATERRESOURCE MANAGEMENT;

CLIMATE MODELS; INFORMATION MANAGEMENT; MANAGERS; WATER MANAGEMENT;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; TEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE;

AUSTRALIA; MURRAY-DARLING BASIN;

EID: 79959474553     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009803     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Ashok, K., C.-Y. Tam, and W.-J. Lee (2009), ENSO Modoki impact on the Southern Hemisphere storm track activity during extended austral winter, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L12705, doi:10.1029/2009GL038847.
2. Blackmore, K. L., and I. D. Goodwin (2009), Climate change impact for the Hunter, lower north coast and central coast region of NSW, Rep. 3, Hunter and Cent. Coast Reg. Environ. Strategy, Thornton, N. S. W., Australia.
3. Blöschl, G., and A. Montanari (2010), Climate change impacts\-Throwing the dice?, Hydrol. Processes, 24, 374-381, doi:10.1002/hyp.7574.
4. Cai, W., and T. Cowan (2008), Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07701, doi:10.1029/2008GL033390. (Pubitemid 351858648)
5. Cai, W., and T. Cowan (2009), La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12805, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL037885.
6. Cai, W., T. Cowan, P. Briggs, and M. Raupach (2009), Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought across southeast Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21709, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL040334.
7. Cai, W., T. Cowan, K. Braganza, D. A. Jones, and J. S. Risbey (2010), Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al., Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, L10706, doi:10.1029/2009GL042254.
8. Chiew, F. H. S., T. C. Piechota, J. A. Dracup, and T. A. McMahon (1998), El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought: Links and potential for forecasting, J. Hydrol., 204(1-4), 138-149, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00121-2. (Pubitemid 28159056)
9. Chiew, F. H. S., W. J. Young, W. Cai, and J. Teng (2011), Current drought and future hydroclimate projections in southeast Australia and implications for water resources management, Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 25, 601-612, doi:10.1007/s00477-010-0424-x.
10. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (2008a), Water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin, 67 pp., Clayton South, Victoria, Australia.
11. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (2008b), Water availability in the Goulburn-Broken, 12 pp., Clayton South, Victoria, Australia
12. Diaz, H. F., and V. Markgraf (Eds.) (2000), El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, doi:10.1017/CBO9780511573125, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
13. Di Baldassarre, G., A. Montanari, H. Lins, D. Koutsoyiannis, L. Brandimarte, and G. Blöschl (2010), Flood fatalities in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation, Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, L22402, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045467.
14. Donohue, R. J., T. R. McVicar, and M. L. Roderick (2010), Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate, J. Hydrol, 386, 186-197, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.020.
15. Folland, C. K., J. A. Renwick, M. J. Salinger, and A. B. Mullan (2002), Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone, Geophys. Res. Lett, 29(13), 1643, doi:10.1029/2001GL014201.
16. Franks, S. W., and G. Kuczera (2002), Flood frequency analysis: Evidence and implications of secular climate variability, New South Wales, Water Resour. Res., 38(5), 1062, doi:10.1029/2001WR000232.
17. Franks, S. W., D. Kavetski, and L. N. Lockart (2010), Reply to the comment of Cai et al. on the paper "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al., Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, L10403, doi:10.1029/2010GL043615.
18. Gallant, A. J. E., and D. J. Karoly (2009), The atypical influence of the 2007 La Niña on rainfall and temperature in southeastern Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L14707, doi:10.1029/2009GL039026.
19. Gimeno, L., A. Drumond, R. Nieto, R. M. Trigo, and A. Stohl (2010), On the origin of continental precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, L13804, doi:10.1029/2010GL043712.
20. Hendon, H. H., D. W. J. Thompson, and M. C. Wheeler (2007), Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode, J. Clim., 20(11), 2452-2467, doi:10.1175/ JCLI4134.1. (Pubitemid 46979756)
21. Herron, A., A. S. Kiem, and M. C. Peel (2010), Projecting impacts of climate change on future water resources: How and what to change?, paper presented at Practical Responses to Climate Change National Conference, Victoria Water Eng. Branch, Natl. Comm. On Water Eng., Eng. Aust, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 29 Sept. to 1 Oct.
22. Kabat, P., W. van Vierssen, J. Veraart, P. Vellinga, and J. Aerts (2005), Climate proofing the Netherlands, Nature, 438, 283-284, doi:10.1038/ 438283a. (Pubitemid 41643930)
23. Kiem, A. S., and S. W. Franks (2004), Multi-decadal variability of drought risk, eastern Australia, Hydrol. Processes, 18(11), 2039-2050, doi:10.1002/hyp.1460. (Pubitemid 39282512)
24. Kiem, A. S., and D. C. Verdon-Kidd (2009), Climatic drivers of Victorian streamflow: Is ENSO the dominant influence?, Aust. J. Water Resour., 13(1), 17-30.
25. Kiem, A. S., and D. C. Verdon-Kidd (2010), Towards understanding hydroclimatic change in Victoria, Australia-preliminary insights into the "Big Dry," Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 433-445, doi:10.5194/ hess-14-433-2010.
26. Kiem, A. S., S. W. Franks, and G. Kuczera (2003), Multi-decadal variability of flood risk, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(2), 1035, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015992.
27. Kiem, A. S., S. W. Franks, and D. C. Verdon (2006), Climate variability in the land of fire and flooding rain, Aust. J. Emerg. Manage., 21(2), 52-56.
28. Kiem, A. S., H. Ishidaira, H. P. Hapuarachchi, M. C. Zhou, Y. Hirabayashi, and K. Takeuchi (2008), Future hydroclimatology of the Mekong River basin under climate change simulated using the high resolution Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AGCM, Hydrol. Processes, 22(9), 1382-1394, doi:10.1002/hyp.6947. (Pubitemid 351638462)
29. Kirono, D. G. C, F. H. S. Chiew, and D. M. Kent (2010), Identification of best predictors for forecasting seasonal rainfall and runoff in Australia, Hydrol. Processes, 24(10), 1237-1247.
30. Koster, R. D., et al. (2004), Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation, Science, 305, 1138-1140, doi:10.1126/science. 1100217. (Pubitemid 39100323)
31. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides (2008), On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrol. Sci. J., 53(4), 671-684, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.4.671.
32. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T. A. Cohn (2009), Climate, hydrology and freshwater: Towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research, Hydrol. Sci. J., 54(2), 394-405, doi:10.1623/hysj.54.2.394.
33. Lim, W. H., and M. L. Roderick (2009), An Atlas of the Global Water Cycle Based on the IPCC AR4 Climate Models, ANU E Press, Canberra.
34. Lockart, N., D. Kavetski, and S. W. Franks (2009), On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L24405, doi:10.1029/2009GL040598.
35. McMahon, T. A., A. S. Kiem, M. C. Peel, P. W. Jordan, and G. G. S. Pegram (2008), A new approach to stochastically generating sixmonthly rainfall sequences based on empirical model decomposition, J. Hydrometeorol, 9, 1377-1389, doi:10.1175/2008JHM991.1.
36. Meneghini, B., I. Simmonds, and I. N. Smith (2007), Association between Australian rainfall and the Southern Annular Mode, Int. J. Climatol, 27, 109-121, doi:10.1002/joc.1370. (Pubitemid 46157866)
37. Meyers, G., P. McIntosh, L. Pigot, and M. Pook (2007), The years of El Niño, La Niña, and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean, J. Clim., 20, 2872-2880, doi:10.1175/JCLI4152.1. (Pubitemid 47099270)
38. Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer (2008), Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?, Science, 319, 573-574, doi:10.1126/science.1151915. (Pubitemid 351197047)
39. Montanari, A., G. Blöschl, M. Sivapalan, and H. Savenije (2010), Getting on target, Public Serv. Rev. Sci. Technol, 7, 167-169.
40. Murphy, B. F., and B. Timbal (2008), A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia, Int. J. Climatol., 28(7), 859-879, doi:10.1002/joc.1627. (Pubitemid 351965669)
41. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (2010), National climate change adaptation research plan: Water resources and freshwater biodiversity, Southport, Queensland, Australia. [Available at: www.nccarf.edu.au/national-adaptation-research-plan-water-resources-freshwater- biodiversity.]
42. Nicholls, N. (1989), Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall, J. Clim., 2, 965-973, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1989)0020965: SSTAAW2.0.CO;2.
43. Nicholls, N. (2004), The changing nature of Australian droughts, Clim. Change, 63, 323-336, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000018515.46344.6d. (Pubitemid 38448475)
44. Parry, M. L., O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, and C. E. Hanson (Eds.) (2007), Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
45. Pitman, A. J., and S. E. Perkins (2008), Regional projections of future seasonal and annual changes in rainfall and temperature over Australia based on skill-selected AR4 models, Earth Interact., 12, 1-50, doi:10.1175/2008EI260.1
46. Pittock, B. (Ed.) (2003), Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts, Aust. Greenhouse Off., Canberra.
47. Pook, M., P. McIntosh, and G. Meyers (2006), The synoptic decomposition of cool season rainfall in the south-eastern Australian cropping region, J. Appl. Meteorol., 45(8), 1156-1170, doi:10.1175/JAM2394.1. (Pubitemid 44501304)
48. Pook, M., S. Lisson, J. Risbey, C. Ummenhofer, P. McIntosh, and M. Rebbeck (2008), The autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia: Trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield, Int. J. Climatol., 29(13), 2012-2026, doi:10.1002/joc.1833.
49. Power, S., T. Casey, C. Folland, A. Colman, and V. Mehta (1999), Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia, Clim. Dyn., 15(5), 319-324, doi:10.1007/s003820050284. (Pubitemid 29414087)
50. Preston, B. L., and R. N. Jones (2008), Evaluating sources of uncertainty in Australian runoff projections, Adv. Water Resour., 31(5), 758-775, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.01.006.
51. Randall, D. A., et al. (2007), Climate models and their evaluation, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., chap. 8, pp. 589-662, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
52. Risbey, J. S., M. J. Pook, P. C. McIntosh, M. C. Wheeler, and H. H. Hendon (2009), On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3233-3253, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2861.1.
53. Roesler, E. L., and J. E. Penner (2010), Can global models ignore the chemical composition of aerosols?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24809, doi:10.1029/2010GL044282.
54. Rosenfeld, D. (2000), Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution, Science, 287, 1793-1796, doi:10.1126/science. 287.5459.1793. (Pubitemid 30143959)
55. Stainforth, D. A., M. R. Allen, E. R. Tredger, and L. A. Smith (2007), Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161, doi:10.1098/ rsta.2007.2074.
56. Taschetto, A. S., and M. H. England (2009), El Niño Modoki impacts on Australian rainfall, J. Clim., 22, 3167-3174, doi:10.1175/ 2008JCLI2589.1.
57. Taschetto, A. S., C. C. Ummenhofer, A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2009), Effect of anomalous warming in the central Pacific on the Australian monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12704, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL038416.
58. Timbal, B., S. Power, R. Colman, J. Viviand, and S. Lirola (2002), Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?, J. Clim., 15, 1230-1238, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002) 0152.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 34657995)
59. Verdon, D. C., and S. W. Franks (2005), Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability and winter rainfall: Eastern Australia, Water Resour. Res., 41, W09413, doi:10.1029/2004WR003845. (Pubitemid 41552199)
60. Verdon, D. C., and S. W. Franks (2006), Long-term behaviour of ENSO: Interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleo-climate records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06712, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL025052.
61. Verdon, D. C., and S. W. Franks (2007), Long term drought risk assessment in the Lachlan River Valley-A paleoclimate perspective, Aust. J. Water Resour., 11(2), 145-152.
62. Verdon, D. C., A. S. Kiem, and S. W. Franks (2004a), Multidecadal variability of forest fire risk: Eastern Australia, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 13(2), 165-171, doi:10.1071/WF03034. (Pubitemid 39104087)
63. Verdon, D. C., A. M. Wyatt, A. S. Kiem, and S. W. Franks (2004b), Multi-decadal variability of rainfall and streamflow: Eastern Australia, Water Resour. Res., 40, W10201, doi:10.1029/2004WR003234. (Pubitemid 41759973)
64. Verdon-Kidd, D. C., and A. S. Kiem (2009a), On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 467-479, doi:10.5194/hess-13-467-2009.
65. Verdon-Kidd, D. C., and A. S. Kiem (2009b), Nature and causes of protracted droughts in Southeast Australia: Comparison between the Federation, WWII and Big Dry droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22707, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL041067.
66. Verdon-Kidd, D. C., and A. S. Kiem (2010), Quantifying drought risk in a non-stationary climate, J. Hydrometeorol., 11(4), 1019-1031, doi:10.1175/2010JHM1215.1.
67. Wei, J., and P. A. Dirmeyer (2010), Toward understanding the large-scale land-atmosphere coupling in the models: Roles of different processes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19707, doi:10.1029/2010GL044769.
68. Wright, W. J. (1989), A synoptic climatological classification of winter precipitation in Victoria, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 37, 217-229.