Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana

Journal of Environmental Management

Volumn 130, Issue , 2013, Pages 20-31

  Paveglio, Travis B ^a   Prato, Tony ^b   Hardy, Michael ^b  

^a WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Future wildfire risk; Land use policy; Simulation

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; ECONOMICS; FIRES; FORESTRY; GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; HOUSING; LAND USE; RISK PERCEPTION;

'CURRENT; ECONOMIC GROWTHS; FUTURE WILDFIRE RISK; LAND USE POLICY; MONTANA; PROPERTY; SIMULATION; SIMULATION MODEL; WILDFIRE RISKS; WILDLAND URBAN INTERFACE;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT; ECONOMIC GROWTH; FIRE MANAGEMENT; GREENHOUSE GAS; LAND USE CHANGE; LAND USE PLANNING; RESIDENTIAL LOCATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; URBAN AREA; WILDFIRE; WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT;

ARTICLE; CARBON FOOTPRINT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; ECOLOGY; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECOSYSTEM; ECOSYSTEM FIRE HISTORY; ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; FOREST; HUMAN; LAND USE; PROBABILITY; RESIDENTIAL AREA; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIOECOLOGY; UNITED STATES; URBAN AREA; WILDFIRE RISK; WILDLAND URBAN INTERFACE; WILDLIFE;

FLATHEAD COUNTY; MONTANA; UNITED STATES;

KATHETOSTOMA GIGANTEUM;

CLIMATE CHANGE; FUTURE WILDFIRE RISK; LAND USE POLICY; SIMULATION;

CITIES; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; FIRES; GEOGRAPHY; MODELS, THEORETICAL; MONTANA; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84884300139     PISSN: 03014797     EISSN: 10958630     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.08.036     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Agee J.K. Fire Ecology of Pacific Northwest Forests 1993, Island Press, Washington, DC.
2. Ager A.A., Vaillant N.M., Finney M.A. Acomparison of landscape fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in the urban interface and preserve old forest structure. For. Ecol. Manag. 2010, 259:1556-1570.
3. Bar Massada A., Radeloff V.C., Stewart S.I., Hawbaker T.J. Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: a simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin. For. Ecol. Manag. 2009, 258:1990-1999.
4. Bar Massada A., Wood E.M., Pidgeon A.M., Radeloff V.C. Allocating fuel breaks for optimal protection of structures in the wildland-urban interface. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2011, 20:59-68.
5. Beverly J.L., Bothwell P., Conner J.C.R., Herd E.P.K. Assessing the exposure of the built environment to potential ignition sources generated from vegetative fuel. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2010, 19:299-313.
6. Bhandary U., Muller B. Land use planning and wildfire risk mitigation: an analysis of wildfire-burned subdivisions using high-resolution remote sensing imagery and GIS data. J.Environ. Plann. Manag. 2012, 57(2):939-955.
7. Bihari M., Hamin E.M., Ryan R.L. Understanding the role of planners in wildfire preparedness and mitigation. ISRN Forestry 2012, 2012:1-12.
8. Bone C., Dragićević S. Simulation and validation of a reinforcement learning agent-based model for multi-stakeholder forest management. Computers. Environ. Urban Syst. 2010, 34:162-174.
9. Bruzuszek R., Walker J., Schauwecker T., Campany C., Foster M., Grado S. Planning strategies for community wildfire defense design in Florida. J.For. 2010, 108(5):250-257.
10. Butry D., Donovan G. Protect thy neighbor: Investigating the spatial externalities of community wildfire hazard mitigation. For. Sci. 2008, 54:417-428.
11. Buxton M., Haynes R., Mercer D., Butt A. Vulnerability to bushfire risk at Melbourne's urban fringe: the failure of regulatory land use planning. Geograph. Res. 2011, 49(1):1-12.
12. Calkin D.E., Rieck J.D., Hyde K.D., Kaiden D. Built structure identification in wildland fire decision support. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2011, 20:78-90.
13. Cohen J.D. Preventing disaster: home ignitability in the wildland-urban interface. J.For. 2000, 98(3):15-21.
14. Cohen J.D. The wildland-urban interface fire problem: a consequence of the fire exclusion paradigm. For. Hist. Today 2008, 20-26. Fall.
15. Cova T.J., Drews F.A., Siebeneck L.K., Musters A. Mapping evacuation vulnerability in the western US: the limits of infrastructure. GeoJournal 2011, Available online at:. http://www.springerlink.com.weblib.lib.umt.edu:8080/content/j5v216660wn84264/.
16. Daniel T.C. Perceptions of wildfire risk. People, Fire and Forests: a Synthesis of Wildfire Social Science 2007, 55-69. Oregon State University Press, Corvallis, OR. T.C. Daniel, M.S. Carroll, C. Moseley, C. Raish (Eds.).
17. Finney M.A. The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire. For. Ecol. Manag. 2005, 211:97-108.
18. Finney M.A. APrototype Simulation System for Large Fire Planning in FPA 2007, Missoula, MT. Available online at:. http://www.fpa.nifc.gov/Library/Docs/FPA_SimulationPrototype_0705.pdf.
19. Finney M.A., Grenfell I.C., McHugh C.W., Seli R.C., Trethewey D., Stratton R.D., Brittain S. Amethod for ensemble wildland fire simulation. Environ. Model. Assess. 2011, 16:153-167.
20. Flathead County Office of Planning and Zoning Flathead County Growth Policy 2011, Retrieved from:. http://flathead.mt.gov/planning_zoning/growth_resolution2015a.php.
21. GCS Research Flathead County Community Wildfire Protection Plan 2010.
22. Gibbons P., van Bommel L., Gill A.M., Cary G.J., Driscoll D.A., Bradstock R.A., Knight E., Moritz M.A., Stephens S.L., Lindenmayer D.B. Land management practices associated with house loss in wildfires. PLoS ONE 2012, 7(1):e29212.
23. Gude P., Rasker R., Noort J.vd Potential for future development on fire-prone lands. J.For. 2008, 106:198-205.
24. Haight R.C., Cleland D.T., Hammer R.B., Radeloff V.C., Rupp T.S. Assessing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface. J.For. 2004, 102:41-48.
25. Hammer R.B., Stewart S.I., Radeloff V.C. Demographic trends, the wildland-urban interface, and wildfire management. Soc. Nat. Resour. 2009, 22:777-782.
26. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report 2007, Available online at:. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf.
27. Irwin E., Isserman A.M., Kilkenny M., Partridge M.D. Acentury of research on rural development and regional issues. Am. J. Agri. Econom. 2010, 92:522-553.
28. Kauffman J.B. Death rides the forest: perceptions of fire, land use, and ecological restoration of western forests. Conserv. Biol. 2004, 18(4):878-882.
29. Keane R.E., Loehman R.A., Holsinger L.M. The FireBGCv2 Landscape Fire and Succession Model: a Research Simulation Platform for Exploring Fire and Vegetation Dynamics 2011, US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Fort Collins, CO, Gen. Tech. Rep, RMRS-GTR-255,137.
30. Mell W.E., Manzello S.L., Maraghides A., Butry D., Rehm R.G. The wildland-urban interface problem current approaches and research needs. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2010, 19:238-251.
31. Miller C., Ager A.A. Areview of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2012, Available online at:. http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11114.htm.
32. Muller B.H., Yin L. Regional governance and hazard information: the role of co-ordinated risk assessment and regional spatial accounting in wildfire hazard mitigation. J.Environ. Plann. Manag. 2010, 53(1):1-21.
33. Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. IMPLAN System (Data and Software) 2010, Stillwater, MN. Available online at:. http://www.implan.com.
34. Montana Cadastral Available online at:. http://svc.mt.gov/msl/mtcadastral.
35. National Fire Protection Agency (NFPA) NFPA 1144: Standard for Reducing Structure Ignition Hazards from Wildland Fire (2008 Edition) 2007, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA.
36. Nielsen-Pincus M., Goldberg C.S., Pocewicz A., Force J.E., Waits L.P., Morgan P., Vierling L. Predicted effects of residential development on a northern Idaho landscape under alternative growth management and land protection policies. Landsc. Urban Plann. 2010, 94:255-263.
37. Paterson R.G. Wildfire hazard mitigation as "safe" smart growth. Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources 2007, 43-71. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, UK. T. Austin, R.G. Kennedy (Eds.).
38. Paveglio T.B., Prato T. Integrating dynamic social systems into assessments of future wildfire risk: an empirical agent-based modeling approach. Environmental Management: Systems, Sustainability and Current Issues 2012, 1-42. Nova Science Publishers, Inc., Hauppauge, NY. H.C. Dupont (Ed.).
39. Paveglio T.B., Prato T., Barnett Y., Silverstein R., Hardy M., Keane R., Loehman R., Clark A., Fagre D., Venn T., Stockmann K. Simulating future residential property losses from wildfire in Flathead County, Montana. Environ. Model. Software 2013, (Submitted for publication).
40. Platt R.V. Amodel of exurban land-use change and wildfire mitigation. Environ. Plann. B: Plann. Design 2006, 33:749-765.
41. Platt R.V. The wildland-urban interface: evaluating the definition effect. J.For. 2010, 108(1):9-15.
42. Platt R.V., Schoennagel T., Veblen T.T., Sherriff R.L. Modeling wildfire potential in residential parcels: a case study of the north-central Colorado Front Range. Landsc. Urban Plann. 2011, 102:117-126.
43. Prato T., Clark A.S., Dolle K., Barnett Y. Evaluating alternative economic growth rates and land use policies for Flathead County, Montana. Landsc. Urban Plann. 2007, 83:327-339.
44. Prato T., Barnett Y., Clark A., Paveglio T. Improving simulation of land use change in a region of the Rocky Mountain West. Land Use: Planning, Regulations, and Environment 2012, 189-210. Nova Science Publishers, Inc., Hauppauge, NY. C. Aubrecht, S. Freire, K. Steinnocher (Eds.).
45. Stetler K.M., Venn T.J., Calkin D.E. The effects of wildfire and environmental amenities on property values in northwest Montana, USA. Ecol. Econom. 2010, 69:2233-2243.
46. Stewart S.I., Radeloff V.C., Hammer R.B., Hawbaker T.J. Defining the wildland-urban interface. J.For. 2007, 105(4):201-207.
47. Stewart S.I., Wilmer B., Hammer R.B., Aplet G.H., Hawbaker T.J., Miller C., Radeloff V.C. Wildland-urban interface maps vary with purpose and context. J.For. 2009, 107:78-83.
48. Stockmann K., Burchfield J., Calkin D., Venn T. Guiding preventative wildland fire mitigation policy and decisions with an economic modeling system. For. Policy Econom. 2010, 12(2):147-154.
49. Syphard A.D., Clarke K.C., Franklin J. Simulating fire frequency and urban growth in southern California coastal shrublands, USA. Landsc. Ecol. 2007, 22(3):431-445.
50. Syphard A.D., Keeley J.E., Massada A.B., Brennan T.J., Radeloff V.C. Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire. PLos One 2012, 7(3):e33954.
51. Theobald D.M., Romme W. Expansion of the wildland-urban interface and wildfire mitigation in the United States. Landsc. Urban Plann. 2007, 83:340-354.
52. Thompson M.P., Calkin D.E., Finney M.A., Ager A.A., Gilbertson-Day J.W. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 2011, 25:761-780.
53. US Census Bureau State and County QuickFacts 2012, Available online at:. http://quickfacts.census.gov.
54. US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Rapid Assessment of Values at Risk 2011, Available online at:. http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/wfdss_ravar/ravar/index.shtml.
55. US Department of Agriculture, and US Department of the Interior (USDA and USDI) Urban wildland interface communities within the vicinity of federal lands that are at high risk from wildfire. Fed. Regist. August 2001, 17:43384-43435.
56. US Department of Agriculture, and US Department of the Interior (USDA and USDI) Quadrennial Fire Review 2009: Final Report 2009, Available online at:. http://www.nifc.gov/PUBLICATIONS/QFR/QFR2009Final.pdf.
57. Venn T.J., Calkin D.E. Challenges to socio-economically evaluating management on non-industrial private and public forestland in the western United States. Small-scale For. 2009, 8:43-61.
58. Westerling A.L., Bryant B.P. Climate change and wildfire in California. Clim. Change 2008, 87:S231-S249.
59. Westerling A.L., Bryant B.P., Preisler H.K., Preisler H.K., Holmes T.P., Hidalgo H.G., Das T., Shrestha S.R. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire. Clim. Change 2011, 109:445-463.
60. Wilmer B., Aplet G.H. Targeting the Community Fire Planning Zone: Mapping Matters 2005, The Wilderness Society, Washington, DC.
61. Yin L. Modeling cumulative effects of wildfire hazard policy and exurban household location choices: an application of agent based-simulations. Plann. Theory Prac. 2010, 11(3):375-396.
62. Zhang Y., Wimberly M.C. The importance of scale in using hierarchical census data to identify the wildland-urban interface. South J. Appl. For. 2007, 31(3):138-147.