Interspecific differences in tree growth and mortality responses to environmental drivers determine potential species distributional limits in Iberian forests

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 22, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 1141-1151

  Benito Garzón, Marta ^a,b   Ruiz Benito, Paloma ^a,c   Zavala, Miguel A ^a,c  

^a Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITÉ PARIS SUD   (France)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ALCALÁ   (Spain)

Author keywords

Climate change; Demographic rates; National Forest Inventory; Phenotypic variability; Spain; Species distributional models; Tree growth; Tree mortality

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; FOREST INVENTORY; GROWTH; INTERSPECIFIC VARIATION; MORTALITY; RANGE SIZE; TREE;

IBERIAN PENINSULA; SPAIN;

EID: 84883557355     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12075     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D. & Hogg, E.H. (Ted) (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 660-684.
2. Allouche, O., Tsoar, A. & Kadmon, R. (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223-1232.
3. Angert, A.L., Crozier, L.G., Rissler, L.J., Gilman, S.E., Tewksbury, J.J. & Chunco, A.J. (2011) Do species' traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges? Ecology Letters, 14, 677-689.
4. Barber, V.A., Juday, G.P. & Finney, B.P. (2000) Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress. Nature, 405, 668-673.
5. Benito Garzón, M., Blazek, R., Neteler, M., Dios, R.S., De Ollero, H.S. & Furlanello, C. (2006) Predicting habitat suitability with machine learning models: the potential area of Pinus sylvestris L. in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological Modelling, 197, 383-393.
6. Benito Garzón, M., Sánchez de Dios, R. & Sainz Ollero, H. (2008) Effects of climate change on the distribution of Iberian tree species. Applied Vegetation Science, 11, 169-178.
7. Benito Garzón, M., Alía, R., Robson, T.M. & Zavala, M.A. (2011) Intra-specific variability and plasticity influence potential tree species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 766-778.
8. Bivand, R. (2012) spgrass6: interface between GRASS 6 and R. R package version 0.7-10.
9. Black, P.E. (2007) Revisiting the Thornthwaite and Mather Water Balance. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 43, 1604-1605.
10. Breiman, L. (2001) Random forests. Machine Learning, 45, 5-32.
11. Buckley, L.B., Waaser, S.A., MacLean, H.J. & Fox, R. (2011) Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change? Ecology, 92, 2214-2221.
12. Carnicer, J., Coll, M., Ninyerola, M., Pons, X., Sánchez, G. & Peñuelas, J. (2011) Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108, 1474-1478.
13. Cheaib, A., Badeau, V., Boe, J., Chuine, I., Delire, C., Dufrêne, E., François, C., Gritti, E.S., Legay, M., Pagé, C., Thuiller, W., Viovy, N. & Leadley, P. (2012) Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty. Ecology Letters, 15, 533-544.
14. Chuine, I. & Beaubien, E.G. (2001) Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range. Ecology Letters, 4, 500-510.
15. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. (2012) A decade of weather extremes. Nature Climate Change, 2, 491-496.
16. Crossman, N.D., Bryan, B.A. & Summers, D.M. (2012) Identifying priority areas for reducing species vulnerability to climate change. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 60-72.
17. Dietze, M.C. & Moorcroft, P.R. (2011) Tree mortality in the eastern and central United States: patterns and drivers. Global Change Biology, 17, 3312-3326.
18. Doak, D.F. & Morris, W.F. (2010) Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts. Nature, 467, 959-962.
19. García-Valdés, R., Zavala, M., Araújo, M. & Purves, D. (2013) Chasing a moving target: projecting climate change-induced shifts in non-equilibrial tree species distributions. Journal of Ecology, 101, 441-453.
20. Gómez-Aparicio, L., García-Valdés, R., Ruiz-Benito, P. & Zavala, M.A. (2011) Disentangling the relative importance of climate, size and competition on tree growth in Iberian forests: implications for forest management under global change. Global Change Biology, 17, 2400-2414.
21. Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) Software, Version 6.4.1. Open Source Geospatial Foundation. http://grass.osgeo.org.
22. IPCC (2007) IPCC fourth assessment report. Working group III: mitigation of climate change.
23. Jongejans, E., De Kroon, H., Tuljapurkar, S. & Shea, K. (2010) Plant populations track rather than buffer climate fluctuations. Ecology Letters, 13, 736-743.
24. Kearney, M. & Porter, W. (2009) Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecology letters, 12, 334-350.
25. Keenan, T.M., Serra, J., Lloret, F., Ninyerola, M. & Sabate, S. (2011) Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters! Global Change Biology, 17, 565-579.
26. Kylafis, G. & Loreau, M. (2012) Niche construction in the light of niche theory. Ecology Letters, 179, 1-21.
27. Liaw, A. & Wiener, M. (2002) Classification and Regression by randomForest. R News, 2, 18-22. Available at: http://CRAN.R-project.org/doc/Rnews/.
28. Linares, J.C., Camarero, J.J. & Carreira, J.A. (2009) Interacting effects of changes in climate and forest cover on mortality and growth of the southernmost European fir forests. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 18, 485-497.
29. Lloret, F., Escudero, A., Iriondo, J.M., Martínez-Vilalta, J. & Valladares, F. (2012) Extreme climatic events and vegetation: the role of stabilizing processes. Global Change Biology, 18, 797-805.
30. Luyssaert, S., Ciais, P., Piao, S.L. etal. (2010) The European carbon balance. Part 3: forests. Global Change Biology, 16, 1429-1450.
31. MacArthur, R.H. (1972) Geographical ecology: patterns in the distribution of species. Harper and Row, New York.
32. McMahon, S.M., Parker, G.G. & Miller, D.R. (2010) Evidence for a recent increase in forest growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 107, 3611-3615.
33. Martínez-Vilalta, J., Lopez, B.C., Ademm, N., Badiella, L. & Ninyerola, M. (2008) Twentieth century increase of Scots pine radial growth in NE Spain shows strong climate interactions. Global Change Biology, 14, 2868-2881.
34. Meier, E.S., Lischke, H., Schmatz, D.R. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2012) Climate, competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 164-178.
35. Mérian, P., Bontemps, J.-D., Bergès, L. & Lebourgeois, F. (2011) Spatial variation and temporal instability in climate-growth relationships of sessile oak (Quercus petraea [Matt.] Liebl.) under temperate conditions. Plant Ecology, 212, 1855-1871.
36. Mitasova, H. & Mitas, L. (1993) Interpolation by regularized spline with tension: I. Theory and implementtion. Mathematical Geology, 25, 641-655.
37. Monserud, R.A. & Sterba, H. (1999) Modeling individual tree mortality for Austrian forest species. Forest Ecology and Management, 113, 109-123.
38. Morin, X. & Thuiller, W. (2009) Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. Ecology, 90, 1301-1313.
39. Nabuurs, G.-J., Pussinen, A., Karjalainen, T., Erhard, M. & Kramer, K. (2002) Stemwood volume increment changes in European forests due to climate change-a simulation study with the EFISCEN model. Global Change Biology, 8, 304-316.
40. Nicotra, A.B., Atkin, O.K., Bonser, S., Davidson, M., Finnegan, E.J., Mathesius, U., Poot, P., Purugganan, M.D., Richards, C.L., Valladares, F. & Van Kleunen, M. (2010) Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate. Trends in Plant Science, 15, 684-692.
41. Norby, R.J., Warren, J.M., Iversen, C.M., Medlyn, B.E. & McMurtrie, R.E. (2010) CO2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 107, 19368-19373.
42. Pagel, J. & Schurr, F.M. (2012) Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 293-304.
43. Pautasso, M., Döring, T.F., Garbelotto, M., Pellis, L. & Jeger, M.J. (2012) Impacts of climate change on plant diseases - opinions and trends. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 133, 295-313.
44. Peñuelas, J., Canadell, J.G. & Ogaya, R. (2011) Increased water-use efficiency during the 20th century did not translate into enhanced tree growth. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 597-608.
45. Piovesan, G., Biondi, F., Filippo, A., Alessandrini, A. & Maugeri, M. (2008) Drought-driven growth reduction in old beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests of the central Apennines, Italy. Global Change Biology, 14, 1265-1281.
46. Purves, D.W. (2009) The demography of range boundaries versus range cores in eastern US tree species. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 276, 1477-1484.
47. R Development Core Team (2012) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. Available at: http://www.R-project.org.
48. Ruiz-Benito, P., Gómez-Aparicio, L. & Zavala, M.A. (2012) Large-scale assessment of regeneration and diversity in Mediterranean planted pine forests along ecological gradients. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 1092-1106.
49. Ruiz-Benito, P., Lines, E.R., Gómez-Aparicio, L., Zavala, M.A. & Coomes, D.A. (2013) Patterns and drivers of tree mortality in Iberian forests: climatic effects are modified by competition. PLoS ONE, 8, e56843.
50. Sánchez Palomares, O., Sánchez Serrano, F. & Carretero Carretero, O. (1999) Modelos y cartografía de estimaciones climáticas termopluviométricas para la España peninsular.
51. Sarris, D., Christodoulakis, D. & Körner, C. (2007) Recent decline in precipitation and tree growth in the eastern Mediterranean. Global Change Biology, 13, 1187-1200.
52. Savolainen, O., Pyhäjärvi, T. & Knürr, T. (2007) Gene flow and local adaptation in trees. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 38, 595-619.
53. Schwartz, M. (2012) Using niche models with climate projections to inform management decisions. Biological Conservation, 155, 149-156.
54. Urbieta, I.R., Zavala, M.A. & Marañón, T. (2008) Human and non-human determinants of forest composition in southern Spain: evidence of shifts towards cork oak dominance as a result of management over the past century. Journal of Biogeography, 35, 1688-1700.
55. Vayreda, J., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Gracia, M. & Retana, J. (2012) Recent climate changes interact with stand structure and management to determine changes in tree carbon stocks in Spanish forests. Global Change Biology, 18, 1028-1041.
56. Vilà-Cabrera, A., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Vayreda, J. & Retana, J. (2011) Structural and climatic determinants of demographic rates of Scots pine forests across the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological Applications, 21, 1162-1172.
57. Weiner, J. (2004) Allocation, plasticity and allometry in plants. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 6, 207-215.
58. Zavala, M., Espelta, J. & Retana, J. (2000) Constraints and trade-offs in Mediterranean plant communities: the case of holm oak-Aleppo pine forests. The Botanical Review, 66, 119-149.
59. Zavala, M.A., Espelta, J.M., Caspersen, J. & Retana, J. (2011) Interspecific differences in sapling performance with respect to light and aridity gradients in Mediterranean pine-oak forests: implications for species coexistence. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 41, 1432-1444.