Selection of provenances to adapt tropical pine forestry to climate change on the basis of climate analogs

Forests

Volumn 4, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 155-178

  Leibing, Christoph ^a   Signer, Johannes ^b   van Zonneveld, Maarten ^c,d   Jarvis, Andrew ^b   Dvorak, William ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

^b INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR TROPICAL AGRICULTURE CIAT   (Colombia)

^c BIOVERSITY INTERNATIONAL   (Italy)

^d GHENT UNIVERSITY   (Belgium)

^e NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate similarity; Growth prediction; Management decision support tools; Provenance trials; Site quality modelling

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; CLIMATE SIMILARITY; MANAGEMENT DECISIONS; NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY; PLANTATION ESTABLISHMENT; PROVENANCE TRIAL; SITE QUALITY; STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; FORESTRY; TROPICS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; DECIDUOUS TREE; GROWTH RESPONSE; PLANTATION;

CONSERVATION; DECISION MAKING; FOREST MANAGEMENT; SEASONAL VARIATION; TROPICS;

BRAZIL; COLOMBIA; SOUTH AFRICA;

PINUS PATULA; PINUS TECUNUMANII; PINUS TROPICALIS;

EID: 84883269381     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19994907     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/f4010155     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report; Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, USA, 2007.
2. McKenney, D.; Pedlar, J.; O'Neill, G. Climate change and forest seed zones: Past trends, future prospects and challenges to ponder. For. Chron. 2009, 85, 258-266.
3. Fairbanks, D. South African Country Study on Climate Change: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Plantation Forestry; National Research Foundation: Pretoria, South Africa, 1999.
4. Spittlehouse, D.L.; Stewart, R.G. Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC J. Ecosyst. Manag. 2003, 4, 1-11.
5. Maginnis, S.; Jackson, W. The Role of Planted Forests in Forest Landscape Restoration. In Proceedings of the UNFF Intersessional Experts Meeting on the Role of Planted Forests in Sustainable Forest Management, Christchurch, New Zealand, 25-27 March 2003; pp. 87-99.
6. Carle, J.; Holmgren, P. Wood from planted forests: A global outlook 2005-2030. For. Prod. J. 2008, 58, 6-18.
7. FRA. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010; Forestry Paper for FAO: Rome, Italy, 2010; p. 136.
8. IPCC. Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2000.
9. Guariguata, M.R.; Cornelius, J.P.; Locatelli, B.; Forner, C.; Sánchez-Azofeifa, G.A. Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change. Mitig. Adapt. Strategy Glob. Chang. 2008, 13, 793-808.
10. Dvorak, W.S.; Hodge, G.R.; Romero, J.L. Results of twenty years of research on Pinus tecunumanii by the CAMCORE Cooperative. For. Genet. Resour. 2001, 29, 2-6.
11. Glantz, M.H. Societal Responses to Climate Change: Forecasting by Analogy; Westview Press: Boulder, CO, USA, 1988.
12. Glantz, M.H. Does history have a future-Forecasting climate change effects on fisheries by analogy. Fisheries 1990, 15, 39-44.
13. Williams, J.W.; Jackson, S.T.; Kutzbach, J.E. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2007, 104, 5738-5742.
14. Hallegatte, S.; Hourcade, J.C.; Ambrosi, P. Using climate analogues for assessing climate change economic impacts in urban areas. Clim. Chang. 2007, 82, 47-60.
15. Ford, J.D.; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Smith, T.; Pearce, T.; Berrang-Ford, L.; Duerden, F.; Smit, B. Case study and analogue methodologies in climate change vulnerability research. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. 2010, 3, 374-392.
16. Robertson, C.C. A Reconnaissance of The Forest Trees of Australia from the Point of View of Their Cultivation in South Africa; South African Government Printer: Capetown, South Africa, 1926.
17. Golfari, L.; Caser, R.L.; Moura, V.P.G. Zoneamento ecologico esquematico para reflorestamento no Brasil. Série Técnica 1978, 11, 1-66.
18. Booth, T.H. A new method for assisting species selection. Commonw. For. Rev. 1985, 64, 241-250.
19. Dvorak, W.S.; Donahue, J.H.; Vásquez, J.A. Early performance of CAMCORE introductions of Pinus patula in Brazil, Colombia and South Africa. S. Afr. For. J. 1995, 174, 23-33.
20. Dvorak, W.S.; Jordan, A.P.; Romero, J.L.; Hodge, G.R.; Furman, B.J. Quantifying the geographic range of Pinus patula var longipedunculata in southern Mexico using morphologic and RAPD marker data. S. Afr. For. J. 2001, 192, 19-30.
21. Hijmans, R.J.; Schreuder, M.; de la Cruz, J.; Guarino, L. Using GIS to check coordinates of genebank accessions. Genet. Resour. Crop Evol. 1999, 46, 291-296.
22. Birks, J.S.; Barnes, R.D. The Genetic Control of Wood Quality in Pinus patula; ODA Research Scheme R4616; Oxford Forestry Institute, University of Oxford: Oxford, UK, 1991.
23. Hodge, G.R.; Dvorak, W.S. Growth potential and genetic parameters of four mesoamerican pine planted in the southern hemisphere. South. For. 2012, 74, in press.
24. Dvorak, W.S.; Hodge, G.R.; Gutiérrez, E.A.; Osorio, L.F.; Malan, F.S.; Stanger, T.K. Pinus tecunumanii. In Conservation and Testing of Tropical and Subtropical Forest Tree Species; CAMCORE Cooperative: Raleigh, NC, USA, 2000; pp. 188-209.
25. Dvorak, W.S.; Balocchi, C.E.; Raymond, R.H. Performance and Stability of Provenances and Families of Pinus tecunumanii in the Tropics and Subtropics. In Breeding Tropical Trees: Population Structure And Genetic Improvement Strategies In Clonal And Seedling Forestry; Gibson, G.L., Griffin, A.R., Matheson, A.C., Eds.; Oxford Forestry Institute: Oxford, UK, 1989; pp. 187-196.
26. Dvorak, W.S.; Potter, K.M.; Hipkins, V.D.; Hodge, G.R. Genetic diversity and gene exchange in Pinus oocarpa, a Mesoamerican pine with resistance to the pitch canker fungus (Fusarium circinatum). Int. J. Plant Sci. 2009, 170, 609-626.
27. Kanzler, A. Genotype × environment interaction in Pinus patula and its implications in South Africa. PhD thesis, Department of Forestry, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA, 2010.
28. Louw, J.H. Site Classification and Evaluation for Commercial Forestry in the Crocodile River Catchment; University of Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch, South Africa, 1995.
29. IUCN and UNEP. The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA); UNEP-WCMC: Cambridge, UK, 2009.
30. Eva, H.D.; de Miranda, E.E.; di Bella, C.M.; Gond, V.; Sgrenzaroli, O.M.; Jones, S.; Coutinho, A.; Dorado, A.; Guimarães, M.; Elvidge, C.; et al. A vegetation map of South America, European Commission; EUR 20159 EN; Joint Research Centre: Brussels, Belgium, 2002.
31. Mayaux, P.; Bartholomé, E.; Massart, M.; van Cutsem, C.; Cabral, A.; Nonguierma, A. A Land-Cover Map of Africa; EUR 20665 EN; Office for Official Publications of the European Communities: Luxembourg, Luxembourg, 2003.
32. Bartholomé, E.; Belward, A.S.; Achard, F.; Bartalev, S.; Carmona Moreno, C.; Eva, H.; Fritz, S.; Grégoire, J.M.; Mayaux, P.; Stibig, H.J. Global Land Cover Mapping for the Year 2000-Project Status November 2002; ref EUR 20524; JRC: Ispra, Italy, 2003.
33. Hijmans, R.J.; Cameron, S.E.; Parra, J.L.; Jones, P.G.; Jarvis, A. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 2005, 25, 1965-1978.
34. Busby, J.R. BIOCLIM-A Bioclimatic Analysis and Prediction System. In Nature Conservation: Cost Effective Biological Surveys and Data Analysis; Margules, C.R., Austin, M.P., Eds.; CSIRO: Canberra, Australia, 1991; pp. 64-68.
35. R Development Core Team: R. A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Version 2.13.0; R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria, 2011. Available online: http://www.R-project.org/ (accessed on 6 May 2011).
36. Arc 9.3 Arc/Info; Environmental Systems Research Institute: Redlands, CA, USA, 2009.
37. Arnell, N.A.; Osborne, T.; Hiiker, J. Using Agriculturally Meaningful Measures of Climatic Similarity to Identify Present and Future Analogue Climates; Report to CCAFS: Development of Prototype Climate Analogue Tool 2011; Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading: West Berkshire, UK, 2011.
38. Huston, M. Soil nutrients and tree species richness in Costa Rican forests. J. Biogeogr. 1980, 7, 147-157.
39. Dise, N.B.; Wright, R.F. Nitrogen leaching from European forests in relation to nitrogen deposition. For. Ecol. Manag. 2000, 71, 153-161.
40. Yang, Y.; Watanabe, M.; Li, F.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, W.; Zhai, J. Factors affecting forest growth and possible effects of climate change in the Taihang Mountains, northern China. Forestry 2006, 79, 135-147.
41. Bedrick, E.J. Checking for lack of fit in linear models with parametric variance functions. Technometrics 2000, 42, 227-236.
42. Mac Nally, R. Regression and model-building in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology: The distinction between-and reconciliation of-'predictive' and 'explanatory' models. Biodivers. Conserv. 2000, 9, 665-671.
43. O'Brien, R.M. A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Qual. Quant. 2007, 41, 673-690.
44. PCMDI, IPCC Model Output 2007. Available online: http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php (accessed on 20 June 2011).
45. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES); Nakicenovic, N., Swart, R., eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2000.
46. Lugo, A.E.; Brown, S.; Chapman, J. An analytical review of production rates and stemwood biomass of tropical forest plantations. For. Ecol. Manag. 1988, 23, 189-200.
47. Mearns, L.O.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R. Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: Methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty. Clim. Chang. 1997, 34, 367-396.
48. Whittingham, M.J.; Stephens, P.A.; Bradbury, R.B.; Freckleton, R.P. Why do we still use stepwise modeling in ecology and behaviour? J. Anim. Ecol. 2006, 75, 1182-1189.
49. Rencher, A.C.; Pun, F.C. Inflation of R2 in best subset regression. Technometrics 1980, 22, 49-53.
50. Gonzalez, R.W.; Salón, D.; Dasmohaptra, S.; Cubbage, F. South America industrial roundwood supply potential. BioResources 2008, 3, 255-269.
51. Matalaa, J.; Ojansuu, R.; Peltola, H.; Sievänen, R.; Kellomäki, S. Introducing effects of temperature and CO2 elevation on tree growth into a statistical growth and yield model. Ecol. Model. 2005, 181, 173-190.
52. Rehfeldt, G.E.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, Y.I.; Wykoff, W.R.; Kuzmina, N.A.; Milyutin, L.I. Intraspecific responses to climate in Pinus sylvestris. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2002, 8, 912-929.
53. Fairbanks, D. South African Country Study on Climate Change: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Plantation Forestry; National Research Foundation: Pretoria, South Africa, 1999.
54. Rowhani, P.; Lobell, D.B.; Linderman, M.; Ramankutty, N. Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2001, 151, 449-460.
55. Brook, J.R.; Flanagan, L.B.; Ehleringer, J.R. Responses of boreal conifers to climate fluctuations: Indications from tree-ring widths and carbon isotope analyses. Can. J. For. Res. 1998, 29, 524-533.
56. Clark, D.A.; Clark, D.B. Climate induces annual variation in canopy tree growth in a Costa Rican tropical rain forest. J. Ecol. 1994, 82, 865-872.
57. Mátyás, C. Climatic adaptation of trees: Rediscovering provenance tests. Euphytica 1996, 92, 45-54.
58. William, R.L.; Barner, H. Matching Seed Source to Planting Site; Lecture Note B.3; Danida Forest Seed Centre: Humlebaek, Denmark, 1993.
59. Finley, K.W.; Wilkinson, G.N. The analysis of adaptation in a plant-breeding program. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 1963, 14, 342-354.
60. Lortie, C.J.; Aarssen, L.W. The specialization hypothesis for phenotypic plasticity in plants. Int. J. Plant Sci. 1996, 15, 484-487.
61. Via, S.; Gomulkiewicz, R.; de Jong, G.; Scheiner, S.M.; Schlichting, C.D. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity: Consensus and controversy. Trends Ecol. Evol. 1995, 10, 212-217.
62. Emery, R.J.N.; Chinnappa, C.C.; Chmielewski, J.G. Specialization, plant strategies, and phenotypic plasticity in populations of Stellaria longipes along an elevational gradient. Int. J. Plant Sci. 1994, 155, 203-219.
63. Hodge, G.R.; Dvorak, W.S. Genetic parameters and provenance variation of Pinus tecunumanii in 78 international trials. For. Genet. 1999, 6, 157-180.
64. Rosvall, O.; Ericsson, T. Förtlyttningseffekter I norrländska gran-proveniensförsörk. Föreningen Skogrsträds-förädling; Institutet for Skogsförbättring: Årsbok, Sweden, 1981.
65. Davis, M.B.; Shaw, R.G. Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 2001, 292, 673-679.
66. FAO. Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries: Perspective, Framework and Priorities; Food Agricultural Organization of the United Nations: Rome, Italy, 2007; p. 2.
67. Mitchell, R.G.; Steenkamp, E.T.; Coutinho, T.A.; Wingfield, M.J. The pitch canker fungus, Fusarium circinatum: Implications for South African forestry. South. For. 2011, 73, 1-13.
68. Wilby, R.; Dawson, C. SDSM 4.1-A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts; User Manual: London, UK, 2007; p. 93.
69. Stott, P.A.; Kettleborough, J.A. Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature 2002, 416, 723-726.