Modelling phosphorus in Lake Simcoe and its subcatchments: Scenario analysis to assess alternative management strategies

Inland Waters

Volumn 3, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 207-220

  Jin, L ^a   Whitehead, P G ^b   Baulch, H M ^c   Dillon, P J ^d   Butterfield, D ^e   Oni, S K ^d,f   Futter, M N ^f   Crossman, J ^b,d   O'Connor, E M ^g  

^a STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c University of Saskatchewan   (Canada)

^d TRENT UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^e EnMoSys   (United States)

^f SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

^g Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority   (Canada)

Author keywords

Branched river; INCA P; Lake Simcoe; Management practices; Phosphorus loading; Water quality modelling

Indexed keywords

ALGAE;

EID: 84881503984     PISSN: 20442041     EISSN: 2044205X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5268/IW-3.2.520     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Arhonditsis GB, Brett MT. 2004. Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling. Mar Ecol Prog Ser. 271:13-26.
2. Baulch HM, Futter MN, Jin L, Whitehead PG, Woods DT, Dillon PJ, Butterfield DA, Oni SK, Aspden LP, O'Connor EM, Crossman J. 2013. Phosphorus dynamics across intensively monitored subcatchments in the Beaver River. Inland Waters. 3(2):187-206.
3. Collins R, Whitehead P, Butterfield D. 1999. Nitrogen leaching from catchments in the Middle Hills of Nepal; an application of the INCA model. Sci Total Environ. 228:259-274.
4. Crossman J, Futter MN, Oni SK, Whitehead PG, Jin L, Butterfield D, Baulch H, Dillon PJ. 2013. Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada. J Great Lakes Res. 39:19-32.
5. Dalzell BJ, Gowda PH, Mulla DJ. 2004. Modelling sediment and phosphorus losses in an agricultural watershed to meet TMDLs. J Am Water Resour As. 40:533-543.
6. Dean S, Freer J, Beven K, Wade AJ, Butterfield D. 2009.Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus. Stoch Env Res Risk A. 23:991-1010.
7. Drolc A, Koncan JZ. 2002. Estimation of sources of total phosphorus in a river basin and assessment of alternatives for river pollution reduction. Environ Int. 28:393-400.
8. Evans DO, Nicholls KH, Allen YC, McMurtry MJ. 1996. Historical land use, phosphorus loading, and loss of fish habitat in Lake Simcoe, Canada. Can J Fish Aquat Sci. 53:194-218.
9. Fulton FS and Smith D. 2008. Development of phosphorus load reduction goals for seven lakes in the upper Ocklawaha river basin, Florida. Lake Reserv Manage. 24:139-154.
10. Futter MN, Butterfield D, Cosby BJ, Dillon PJ, Wade AJ, Whitehead PG. 2007. Modelling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments. Water Resour Res. 43:W02424.
11. Futter MN, Helliwell RC, Hutchins M, Aherne J. 2009. Modelling the effects of changing climate and nitrogen deposition on nitrate dynamics in a Scottish mountain catchment. Hydrol Res. 40:153-166.
12. Higgins SN, Vander Zanden MJ. 2010. What a difference a species makes: a meta-analysis of dreissenid mussel impacts on freshwater ecosystems. Ecol Monogr. 80:179-196.
13. ISEE. 2009. Software reference guide. STELLA software technical documentation. Lebanon (NH).
14. Jin L, Whitehead PG, Siegel DI, Findlay S. 2011. Salting our landscape: an integrated catchment model using readily accessible data to assess emerging road salt contamination to streams. Environ Pollut. 159:1257-1265.
15. Johnson FM. 1997. The landscape ecology of Lake Simcoe basin. Lake Reserv Manage. 13:226-239.
16. K. Smart Associates Ltd. 2009. Engineering report: Holland marsh drainage system, canal improvement project, town of Bradford West-Gwillibury, County of Simcoe and Region of York. Kitchener (ON).
17. Lazar AN, Butterfield D, Futter MN, Rankinen K, Thouvenot-Korppoo M, Jarritt N, Lawrence DSL, Wade AJ, Whitehead PG. 2010. An assessment of the fine sediment dynamics in an upland river system: INCA-Sed modifications and implications for fisheries. Sci Total Environ. 408:2555-2566.
18. [LSEMS] Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy. 1995. Lake Simcoe: Our waters, our heritage. Lake Simcoe environmental management strategy implementation program summary of phase I progress and recommendations for phase II. Heathcote I, editor. Jointly published by Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Environment and Energy and Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs.
19. [LSEMS] Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy. 2008. Lake Simcoe Basin wide report; 20 March 2008. p. 136.
20. [LSRCA] Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority. 2009. Report on phosphorus loads to Lake Simcoe 2004-2007. LSRCA (ON).
21. [LSRCA] Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority. 2010a. Beaver River wetland conservation area management plan. p. 60.
22. [LSRCA] Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority. 2010b. East Holland River (EHR) subwatershed plan. p. 298.
23. [LSRCA] Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority. 2010c. West Holland River (WHR) subwatershed plan. p. 304.
24. Meals DW, Cassell EA, Hughell D, Wood L, Jokela WE, Parsons R. 2008. Dynamic spatially explicit mass-balance modelling for targeted watershed phosphorus management - II. Model application. Agr Ecosyst Environ. 127:223-233.
25. Murdoch PS, Baron JS, Miller TL. 2000. Potential effects of climate change on surface water quality in North America. J Am Water Resour As. 36:347-366.
26. Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV. 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I - a discussion of principles. J Hydrol. 10:282-290.
27. Nicholls KH, MacCrimmon HR.1974. Nutrients in subsurface and runoffwaters of the Holland Marsh, Ontario. J Environ Qual. 3:31-35.
28. Oni SK, Futter MN, Dillon P. 2011. Landscape-scale control of carbon budget of Lake Simcoe: A process-based modelling approach. J Great Lakes Res. 37:160-165.
29. Oni SK, Futter MN, Molot LA, Dillon PJ. 2012. Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C. Sci Total Environ. 414:387-403.
30. [OMOE] Ontario Ministry of the Environment. 2009. Lake Simcoe protection plan. Queen's Printer for Ontario; [cited 1 June 2012]. Available from: http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/environment/en/resources/STD01_076301.html
31. [OMOE] Ontario Ministry of the Environment. 2010. Lake Simcoe phosphorus reduction strategy. Queen's Printer for Ontario; [cited 1 June 2012]. Available from: http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/environment/en/resources/STD01_078834
32. Ramkellawan J, Gharabaghi B, Winter JG. 2009. Application of weather radar in estimation of bulk atmospheric deposition of total phosphorus over lake Simcoe. Can Water Resour J. 34:37-60.
33. Rao NS, Easton ZM, Schneiderman EM, Zion MS, Lee DR, Steenhuis TS. 2009. Modelling watershed-scale effectiveness of agricultural best management practices to reduce phosphorus loading. J Environ Manage. 90:1385-1395.
34. Schindler DW. 1971. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus and the eutrophication of freshwater lakes. J Phycol. 7:321-329.
35. Scott LD, Winter JG, Girard RE. 2006. Annual water balances, total phosphorus budgets, and total nitrogen and chloride loads for Lake Simcoe (1998-2004). Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy Implementation Phase III Technical Report No. Imp. A.6. Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, Newmarket, Ontario, Canada.
36. Singer SN, Cheng CK, Scafe MG. 2003. The hydrogeology of Southern Ontario, 2nd ed. Toronto (ON): Ministry of the Environment; Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch. p. 200.
37. Wade AJ, Butterfield D, Lawrence DS, Bärlund I, Ekholm P, Lepistö A, Yli-Halla M, Rankinen K, Granlund K, Durand P, et al. 2009. The Integrated Catchment Model of Phosphorus (INCA-P), a new structure to simulate particulate and soluble phosphorus transport in European catchments, London (UK): Deliverable 185 to the EU Euro-limpacs project, UCL. p. 67.
38. Wade AJ, Hornberger GM, Whitehead PG, Jarvie HP, Flynn N. 2001. On modelling the mechanisms that control in-stream phosphorus, macrophyte, and epiphyte dynamics: an assessment of a new model using general sensitivity analysis. Water Resour Res. 37:2777-2792.
39. Wade AJ, Whitehead PG, Butterfield D. 2002. The integrated catchment model of phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), a new approach for multiple source assessment in heterogeneous river systems: model structure and equations. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc. 6:583-606.
40. Whitehead PG, Butterfield D, Wade AJ. 2009a. Simulating metals and mine discharges in river basins using a new integrated catchment model for metals: pollution impacts and restoration strategies in the Aries-Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania. Hydrol Res. 40:323-346.
41. Whitehead PG, Crossman J, Balana BB, Futter MN, Comber S, Jin L, Skuras D, Wade AJ, Bowes MJ, Read DS. Forthcoming 2013. A cost effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: Impacts of climate and land use change on the river Thames system. Philos T Roy Soc A.
42. Whitehead PG, Jin L, Baulch HM, Butterfield DA, Oni SK, Dillon PJ, Futter M, Wade AJ, North R, O'Connor EM, Jarvie HP. 2011. Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black river, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada. Sci Total Environ. 412-413:315-323.
43. Whitehead PG, Wilby RL, Battarbee RW, Kernan M, Wade AJ. 2009b. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrolog Sci J. 54:101-123.
44. Whitehead PG, Wilson EJ, Butterfield D. 1998a. A semi-distributed integrated nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in catchments (INCA): Part I - model structure and process equations. Sci Total Environ. 210:547-558.
45. Whitehead PG, Wilson EJ, Butterfield D, Seed K. 1998b. A semi-distributed integrated flow and nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in catchments (INCA): Part II - application to large river basins in south Wales and eastern England. Sci Total Environ. 210:559-583.
46. Winter JG, Dillon PJ, Futter MN, Nicholls KM, Scheider WA, Scott LD. 2002. Total phosphorus budgets for Lake Simcoe. J Great Lakes Res. 28:301-314.
47. Winter JG, Eimers MC, Dillon PJ, Scott LD, Scheider WA, Wilcox CC. 2007. Phosphorus inputs to Lake Simcoe 1990 to 2003: Declines in tributary load and observations on lake water quality. J Great Lakes Res. 33:381-396.
48. XCG Consultants Ltd. 2010. Review of phosphorus removal at municipal sewage treatment plants discharging to the Lake Simcoe Watershed. Kingston (ON): Water Environment Association of Ontario.