A novel method to value real options in health care: The case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy

Clinical Therapeutics

Volumn 35, Issue 7, 2013, Pages 904-914

  Favato, Giampiero ^a   Baio, Gianluca ^b,c   Capone, Alessandro ^a   Marcellusi, Andrea ^d   Saverio Mennini, Francesco ^a,d  

^a KINGSTON UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MILANO BICOCCA   (Italy)

^d UNIVERSITY OF ROME TOR VERGATA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Human papillomavirus; Multicohort; Real option; Vaccination; Valuation

Indexed keywords

WART VIRUS VACCINE;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CHILD; COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; FEMALE; HEALTH CARE; HEALTH PROGRAM; HUMAN; QUALITY ADJUSTED LIFE YEAR; SCHOOL CHILD; UTERINE CERVIX CANCER; VACCINATION;

HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS; MULTICOHORT; REAL OPTION; VACCINATION; VALUATION;

ADENOCARCINOMA; ADOLESCENT; ADULT; BAYES THEOREM; COHORT STUDIES; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; FEMALE; HUMANS; IMMUNIZATION PROGRAMS; ITALY; PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTIONS; PAPILLOMAVIRUS VACCINES; QUALITY-ADJUSTED LIFE YEARS; UTERINE CERVICAL NEOPLASMS; VACCINATION;

EID: 84880506938     PISSN: 01492918     EISSN: 1879114X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.clinthera.2013.05.003     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Descriptive Epidemiology Group of International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence Worldwide-GLOBOCAN 2008. Accessed October 10, 2013. http://www-dep.iarc.fr.
2. Walboomers J.M., Jacobs M.V., Manoss M.M., et al. Human papillomavirus is a necessary cause of invasive cervical cancer worldwide. J Pathol 1999, 189:12-19.
3. Bosch FX, Iftner T. The Aetiology of Cervical Cancer. NHS Cancer Screening Programmes (NHSCSP). Accessed June 3, 2013. http://www.cancerscreening.nhs.uk/cervical/publications/nhscsp22.html.
4. Bosch F.X., Lorincz A., Muñoz N., et al. The causal relation between human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. J Clin Pathol 2002, 55:244-265.
5. Sanders G.D., Taira A.V. Cost effectiveness of a potential vaccine for human papillomavirus. Emerging Infect Dis 2003, 9:37-48.
6. Kulasingam S.L., Myers E.R. Potential health and economic impact of adding a human papillomavirus vaccine to screening programmes. JAMA 2003, 290:781-789.
7. Taira V., Neukermans C.P., Sanders G.D. Evaluating human papillomavirus vaccination programmes. Emerging Infect Dis 2004, 10:1915-1923.
8. Goldie S.J., Kholi M., Grima D., et al. Projected clinical benefits and cost effectiveness of a human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine. J National Cancer Institute 2004, 96:604-615.
9. Barnabas R.V., Laukkanen P., Koskela P., et al. Epidemiology of HPV 16 and cervical cancer in Finland and the potential impact of vaccination: mathematical modelling analyses. PLoS Med 2006, 3:624-632.
10. Elbasha E.H., Dasbach E.J., Insinga R.P. Model for assessing human papillomavirus vaccination strategy. Emerging Infect Dis 2007, 13:28-41.
11. Kim J.J., Goldiee S.J. Health and economic implications of HPV vaccination in the United States. N Engl J Med 2008, 359:821-832.
12. Jit M., Choi Y.H., Edmunds W.J. Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus in the United Kingdom. BMJ 2008, 337:a769.
13. Mennini F.S., Giorgi Rossi P., Palazzo F., et al. Health and economic impact associated with a quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Italy. Gynaecological Oncol 2009, 112:370-376.
14. Mennini F.S., Costa S., Favato G., et al. Anti-HPV vaccination: a review of recent economic data for Italy. Vaccine 2009, 27:A54-A61.
15. Drummond M., Chevat C., Lothgren M. Do we fully understand the economic value of vaccines?. Vaccine 2007, 25:5945-5957.
16. McKinsey & Co, Koller T., Goedhart M., Wessels D. Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies 2010, Wiley Finance, Hoboken, NJ. Fifth Edition.
17. Mills R.W., Weinstein W.L., Favato G. Using scenario thinking to make real options relevant to managers: a case illustration. J General Management 2006, 31:49-74.
18. Myers S.C. Determinants of corporate borrowing. J Financial Econ 1977, 5:147-175.
19. Carlsson C., Fullér R. On possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Sets Systems 2001, 122:315-326.
20. Damodaran A. The promise of real options. J Applied Corporate Finance 2000, 13:29-44.
21. Mennini F.S., Baio G., Montagano G., et al. Governance of preventive health intervention and on time verification of its efficiency: the GIOVE Study. BMJ Open 2012, 2:e000736.
22. Black F., Scholes M. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. J Political Economy 1973, 81:637-654.
23. Cox J., Ross S., Rubisnstein M. Option pricing: a simplified approach. J Financial Economics 1979, 7:229-263.
24. Briggs A.H., O'Brien B.J., Blackhouse G. Thinking outside the box: recent advances in the analysis and presentation of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness studies. Annual Review Public Health 2002, 23:377-401.
25. Datar V., Mathews S. European real options: an intuitive algorithm for the Black-Scholes formula. J Applied Finance 2004, 14:45-51.
26. Hanss M. Applied Fuzzy Arithmetic. An Introduction With Engineering Applications 2005, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
27. Stinnett A.A., Mullhay J. Net health benefits. A new framework for the analysis of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. Medical Decis Making 1988, 18:S68-S80.
28. Zadeh A. Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control 1965, 8:338-353.
29. Collan M., Fuller R., Mezei J. A fuzzy pay-off method for real options valuation. J Applied Mathematics Decision Sciences 2009, 165-169.
30. Kinnunen J. Valuing M&A synergies as (fuzzy) Real Options. 2010 Annual International Conference on Real Options, REALOPTIONS. Accessed October 7, 2013. http://www.realoptions.org/papers2010/238.pdf.
31. Favato G., Baio G., Capone A., et al. Novel health economic evaluation of a vaccination strategy to prevent HPV-related diseases: the BEST study. Med Care 2012, 50:1076-1085.
32. Collan M. The Pay-off Method: Re-inventing Investment Analysis. Amazon.co.uk, 2012.
33. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Guidance for the introduction of HPV vaccines in EU countries. Guidance report, Stockholm, January 2008. Accessed June 3, 2013. http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/0801_GUI_Introduction_of_HPV_Vaccines_in_EU.pdf.
34. Anderson T.J. Real options analysis in strategic decision making: an applied approach in a dual options framework. J Applied Management Studies 2000, 9:235-255.
35. Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). GeoDemo: resident population in Italy 2011. Accessed October 24, 2012. http://demo.istat.it/.
36. Ribassin-Majed L., Lounes R., Clémençon S. Efficacy of vaccination against HPV infections to prevent cervical cancer in France: present assessment and pathways to improve vaccination policies. PLoS ONE 2012, 7:e32251.
37. Miller K.D., Waller G.H. Scenarios, real options and integrated risk management. Long Range Planning 2003, 36:93-107.
38. Dixit A.K., Pindyck R.S. The options approach to capital investment. Harvard Business Review 1995, 733:105-116.
39. Brisson M., Edmunds W.J. Economic evaluation of vaccination programmes: the impact of herd immunity. Med Decis Making 2003, 23:76-82.
40. Brisson M., Edmunds W.J. Impact of model, methodological and parameter uncertainty in the economic analysis of vaccination programmes. Med Decision Making 2006, 26:434-446.