Summer Rains and Dry Seasons in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: The Predictability of Half a Century of Past and Future Spatiotemporal Patterns

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 7, 2013, Pages

  Mellander, Per Erik ^a   Gebrehiwot, Solomon G ^b,c   Gärdenäs, Annemieke I ^b   Bewket, Woldeamlak ^c   Bishop, Kevin ^b,d  

^a TEAGASC   (Ireland)

^b SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

^c ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY   (Ethiopia)

^d UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DRY SEASON; ETHIOPIA; EVOLUTIONARY ADAPTATION; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; LAND USE; PREDICTION; RIVER BASIN; SEASON; SEASONAL VARIATION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; SUMMER; TREND STUDY; ZONATION;

ETHIOPIA; RAIN; SEASONS; SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 84880256856     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068461     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Deressa TT, Hassan RM, Ringler C, (2011) Perception of and adaption to climate change by farmers in the Nile basin of Ethiopia. The Journal of Agricultural Science 149: 23-31.
2. Zaitchik BF, Simane B, Habib S, Anderson MC, Ozdogan M, et al. (2012) Climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay highlands: a role for earth system sciences. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 9: 435-461.
3. World Bank, 2006. Ethiopia: Managing water resources to maximize sustainable growth: A World Bank water resources assistance strategy for Ethiopia. World Bank, Washington, DC.
4. Block P, Strzepek K, (2012) Power ahead: meeting Ethiopia's energy needs under a changing climate. Review of development economics 16: 476-488.
5. Nicol A, Cascão AE, (2011) Against the flow - new power dynamics and upstream mobilization in the Nile Basin, Review of African Political Economy. 38: 317-325.
6. Mohammed UM (2005) The relative importance of the different forcings on the environment in Ethiopia during Holocene. In: Climate Change and Africa, ed. Pak Sum Low., Cambridge Univ. Press: 23-28.
7. Tadege A (2007) Climate change national adaption program of action (NAPA) of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: NMS (National Meteorological Agency: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources).
8. Tesemma ZK, Mohamed YA, Steenhuis TS, (2010) Trends in rainfall and runoff in the Blue Nile Basin: 1964-2003. Hydrological Processes 24: 3747-3758.
9. Jury MR, (2010) Ethiopian decadal climate variability. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 101: 29-40.
10. Camberlin P, (1997) Rainfall anomalies in the source region of the Nile and their connection with the Indian summer monsoon. Journal of Climate 10: 1380-1392.
11. Seleshi Y, Zanke U, (2004) Recent Changes in Rainfall and Rainy Days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 24: 973-983.
12. Mohamed YA, van den Hurk BJJM, Savenije HHG, Bastiaanssen WGM, (2005) Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9: 693-712.
13. Camberlin P (2009) Nile Basin Climates. In "The Nile: Origin, Environments, Limnology and Human Use", Dumont, Henri J (Ed.), Monographiae Biologicae, Springer: 307-333.
14. Menberu MB, Gebremichael M, Hirpa FA, Gebrewubet YM, Seleshi Y, et al. (2009) On the local-scale spatial variability of daily summer rainfall in the humid and complex terrain of the Blue Nile: observational evidence. Hydrological Processes 23: 3670-3674.
15. Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89: 153-180.
16. Abtew W, Melesse AM, Dessalegne T, (2009) El Ninño Southern Oscillation link to the Blue Nile river basin hydrology. Hydrological Processes 23: 3653-3660.
17. Haile AT, Rientjes T, Gieske A, Gebremichael M, (2009) Rainfall variability over mountainous and adjacent lake areas: the case of Lake Tana basin at the source of the Blue Nile river. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48: 1696-1717.
18. Engida AN, Esteves M, (2011) Characterization and disaggregation of daily rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology 339: 226-234.
19. Ministry of Water Resources (1998) Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project: Data Collection- Site Investigation Survey and Analysis, Phase 2. BECOM-French Engineering Consultants in collaboration with BRGM and ISL, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
20. Gebrehiwot SG, Taye A, Bishop K, (2010) Forest cover and stream flow in a headwater of the Blue Nile: Complementing observational data analysis with community perception. Ambio 39: 284-294.
21. Bossio D, Erkossa T, Dile Y, McCartney M, Killiches F, et al. (2012) Water Implications of Foreign Direct Investment in Ethiopia's Agricultural Sector. Water Alternatives 5: 223-242.
22. Openshaw K (2005) Natural resources: population growth and sustainable development in Africa. In: Climate Change and Africa, ed. Pak Sum Low., Cambridge Univ. Press: 113-123.
23. Ministry of Water Resources (1999) Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project: Main Report Phase 3. BECOM-French Engineering Consultants in collaboration with BRGM and ISL, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
24. Zelle H, Oldenborgh GJ, Burgers G, (2005) El Niño and greenhouse warming: results from ensemble simulations with the NCAR CCM. Journal of Climate 18: 4669-4683.
25. Bewket W, Sterk G, (2005) Dynamics in land cover and its effect on stream flow in the Chemoga watershed, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Hydrological Processes 19: 445-458.
26. Conway D, (2000) The Climate and Hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River. The Geographical Journal 166: 49-62.
27. Taye MT, Willems P (2012) Temporal variability of hydroclimatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin. Water Resources Research 48: DOI 10.1029/2011WR011466.
28. Rosell S, (2011) Regional perspective on rainfall change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia, 1978-2007. Applied Geography 31: 329-338.
29. Endalew GJ (2007) Changes in the frequency and intensity of extremes over Northeast Africa. KNMI scientific report WR 2007-02.
30. Weibull W (1961) Fatigue testing and analysis of results. Pergamon Press, Oxford, United Kingdom, 225 pp.
31. Mellander PE, Ottosson Löfvenius M, Laudon H, (2007) Climate change impact on snow and soil temperature in boreal Scots pine stands. Climatic Change 85: 179-193.
32. Lopez-Moreno JI, Goyette S, Beniston M, (2009) Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: Horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients. Journal of Hydrology 374: 384-396.
33. Lopez-Moreno JI, Beniston M, (2009) Daily precipitation intensity projected for the 21st century: seasonal changes over the Pyrenees. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 95: 374-384.
34. Hulme M, Doherty R, Ngara T, New M (2005) Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment. In: Climate Change and Africa, ed. Pak Sum Low. Cambridge Univ. Press: 29-40.
35. Walker WE, Harremoës P, Rotmans J, van der Sluijs JP, van Asselt MBA, et al. (2003) Defining Uncertainty- A conceptual Basis for Uncertainty management in Model-Based Decision Support. Integrated Assessment 4: 5-17.
36. Kim U, Kaluarachchi JJ, Smakhtin VU, (2008) Generation of monthly precipitation under climate change for the Upper Blue Nile river basin, Ethiopia. American Water Resources Association 44: 1231-1247.
37. Kim U, Kaluarachchi JJ, (2009) Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 45: 1362-1378.
38. de Boer B, (2007) The impact of climate change on rainfall extremes over Northeast Africa. KNMI publication WR 2007-03: pp46.
39. Mitchell TD, Jones PD, (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology 25: 693-712.
40. Gebrehiwot SG, (2012) Hydrology and Forests in the Blue Nile Basin: What can we learn from half a century of observations and community perception for water management? Doctoral Thesis, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, No. 2012: 13.
41. Bryan E, Deressa TT, Gbetibouo GA, Ringler C, (2009) Adaption to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environmental Science and Policy 12: 413-426.
42. Bewket W, (2007) Rainfall variability and agricultural vulnerability in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of Development Research 29: 1-34.
43. Bewket W (2009) Rainwater harvesting as a livelihood strategy in the drought-prone areas of the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Organization for Social Science Research in Eastern and Southern Africa (OSSREA), Addis Ababa (pp. 168).