메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 94, Issue 8, 2013, Pages 1213-1225

A feasibility study for probabilistic convection initiation forecasts based on explicit numerical guidance

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CONVECTIVE STORMS; CONVECTIVE WEATHER; FEASIBILITY STUDIES; GRID-SPACINGS; NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION; NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORIES; POTENTIAL UTILITY; PRIMARY OBJECTIVE;

EID: 84880024577     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00264.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (104)

References (47)
  • 1
    • 79951875449 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: A case-study from COPS
    • doi:10.1002/qj.707
    • Barthlott, C., and Coauthors, 2011: Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: A case-study from COPS. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 118-136, doi:10.1002/qj.707.
    • (2011) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.137 , pp. 118-136
    • Barthlott, C.1
  • 2
    • 79951936437 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observation of convection initiation processes with a suite of state-of-the-art research instruments during COPS IOP 8b
    • doi:10.1002/qj.758
    • Behrendt, A., and Coauthors, 2011: Observation of convection initiation processes with a suite of state-of-the-art research instruments during COPS IOP 8b. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 81-100, doi:10.1002/qj.758.
    • (2011) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.137 , pp. 81-100
    • Behrendt, A.1
  • 3
    • 12144288506 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An hourly assimilation-forecast cycle: The RUC
    • Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2004: An hourly assimilation-forecast cycle: The RUC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 495-518.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 495-518
    • Benjamin, S.G.1
  • 4
    • 39049127121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The convective storm initiation project
    • Browning, K. A., and Coauthors, 2007: The Convective Storm Initiation Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1939-1955.
    • (2007) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.88 , pp. 1939-1955
    • Browning, K.A.1
  • 6
    • 74549175657 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convectionparameterizing ensembles
    • Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2009: A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convectionparameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1121-1140.
    • (2009) Wea. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 1121-1140
    • Clark, A.J.1    Gallus, W.A.2    Xue, M.3    Kong, F.4
  • 7
    • 77955536003 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles
    • - - - and - 2010a: Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 594-612.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 594-612
  • 8
    • 77955651016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensemble forecasts of a mesoscale convective vortex and associated severe weather environment
    • - - - and - 2010b: Convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensemble forecasts of a mesoscale convective vortex and associated severe weather environment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1052-1081.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1052-1081
  • 9
    • 84862919808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of the 2010 hazardous weather testbed experimental forecast program spring experiment
    • - and Coauthors, 2012a: An overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 55-74.
    • (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.93 , pp. 55-74
  • 10
    • 84868319478 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting tornado path lengths using a three-dimensional object identification algorithm applied to convection-allowing forecasts
    • - J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, J. Correia Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2012b: Forecasting tornado path lengths using a three-dimensional object identification algorithm applied to convection-allowing forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1090-1113.
    • (2012) Wea. Forecasting , vol.27 , pp. 1090-1113
    • Kain, J.S.1    Marsh, P.T.2    Correia Jr., J.3    Xue, M.4    Kong, F.5
  • 11
    • 77953572920 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of WRF model output for severe weather forecasting from the 2008 NOAA hazardous weather testbed spring experiment
    • Coniglio, M. C., K. L. Elmore, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, and M. L. Weisman, 2010: Evaluation of WRF model output for severe weather forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 408-427.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 408-427
    • Coniglio, M.C.1    Elmore, K.L.2    Kain, J.S.3    Weiss, S.J.4    Xue, M.5    Weisman, M.L.6
  • 12
    • 84880020882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of convection-allowing WRF model forecasts of the planetary boundary layer using sounding observations
    • in press
    • - J. Correia Jr., P. T. Marsh, and F. Kong, 2013: Verification of convection-allowing WRF model forecasts of the planetary boundary layer using sounding observations. Wea. Forecasting, in press.
    • (2013) Wea. Forecasting
    • Correia Jr., J.1    Marsh, P.T.2    Kong, F.3
  • 13
    • 65549131344 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Elevated convection and castellanus: Ambiguities, significance, and questions
    • Corfidi, S. F., S. J. Corfidi, and D. M. Schultz, 2008: Elevated convection and castellanus: Ambiguities, significance, and questions. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 1280-1303.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 1280-1303
    • Corfidi, S.F.1    Corfidi, S.J.2    Schultz, D.M.3
  • 14
    • 0001028834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of moist convection forced by boundary layer processes to low-level thermodynamic fields
    • Crook, N. A., 1996: Sensitivity of moist convection forced by boundary layer processes to low-level thermodynamic fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1767-1785.
    • (1996) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.124 , pp. 1767-1785
    • Crook, N.A.1
  • 15
    • 28944448519 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model
    • Done, J., C. Davis, and M. Weisman, 2004: The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 5, 110-117.
    • (2004) Atmos. Sci. Lett. , vol.5 , pp. 110-117
    • Done, J.1    Davis, C.2    Weisman, M.3
  • 16
    • 3142687942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Severe convective storms-An overview
    • Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Doswell, C. A., III, 2001: Severe convective storms-An overview. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr., No. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1-26.
    • (2001) Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr. , Issue.50 , pp. 1-26
    • Doswell III, C.A.1
  • 17
    • 0033208307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thunderstorm characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida: A study of lightning initiation signatures as indicated by the WSR-88D
    • Gremillion, M. S., and R. E. Orville, 1999: Thunderstorm characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida: A study of lightning initiation signatures as indicated by the WSR-88D. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 640-649.
    • (1999) Wea. Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 640-649
    • Gremillion, M.S.1    Orville, R.E.2
  • 18
    • 0034124407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convective destabilization by a tropopause fold diagnosed using potential-vorticity inversion
    • Griffiths, M., A. J. Thorpe, and K. A. Browning, 2000: Convective destabilization by a tropopause fold diagnosed using potential-vorticity inversion. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 125-144.
    • (2000) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.126 , pp. 125-144
    • Griffiths, M.1    Thorpe, A.J.2    Browning, K.A.3
  • 19
    • 68249149271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observations of kinematics and thermodynamic structure surrounding a convective storm cluster over a low mountain range
    • Groenemeijer, P., and Coauthors, 2009: Observations of kinematics and thermodynamic structure surrounding a convective storm cluster over a low mountain range. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 585-602.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 585-602
    • Groenemeijer, P.1
  • 21
    • 77957133650 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new stable boundary-layer mixing scheme and its impact on the simulated East Asian summer monsoon
    • Hong, S.-Y., 2010: A new stable boundary-layer mixing scheme and its impact on the simulated East Asian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1481-1496.
    • (2010) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.136 , pp. 1481-1496
    • Hong, S.-Y.1
  • 22
    • 34848818011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The sensitivity of convective initiation to the lapse rate of the active cloud-bearing layer
    • Houston, A. L., and D. Niyogi, 2007: The sensitivity of convective initiation to the lapse rate of the active cloud-bearing layer. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3013-3032.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 3013-3032
    • Houston, A.L.1    Niyogi, D.2
  • 23
    • 0025662461 scopus 로고
    • The step-mountain coordinate: Physical package
    • Janjić, Z. A., 1990: The step-mountain coordinate: Physical package. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1429-1443.
    • (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 1429-1443
    • Janjić, Z.A.1
  • 24
    • 60349094858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP
    • Kain, J. S., and Coauthors, 2008: Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 931-952.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 931-952
    • Kain, J.S.1
  • 25
    • 78149322661 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extracting unique information from high-resolution forecast models: Monitoring selected fields and phenomena every time step
    • - S. R. Dembek, S. J. Weiss, J. L. Case, J. J. Levit, and R. A. Sobash, 2010: Extracting unique information from high-resolution forecast models: Monitoring selected fields and phenomena every time step. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1536-1542.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1536-1542
    • Dembek, S.R.1    Weiss, S.J.2    Case, J.L.3    Levit, J.J.4    Sobash, R.A.5
  • 26
    • 0031153951 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Operational forecasting and detection of mesoscale gravity waves
    • Koch, S. E., and C. O'Handley, 1997: Operational forecasting and detection of mesoscale gravity waves. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 253-281.
    • (1997) Wea. Forecasting , vol.12 , pp. 253-281
    • Koch, S.E.1    O'handley, C.2
  • 27
    • 84878213635 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CAPS storm-scale ensemble forecasts in NOAA HWT 2011 spring experiment: Sensitivities of WRF physics on QPF
    • Boulder, CO, NCAR
    • Kong, F., and Coauthors, 2011: CAPS storm-scale ensemble forecasts in NOAA HWT 2011 Spring Experiment: Sensitivities of WRF physics on QPF. Extended Abstracts, 12th WRF Users' Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCAR. [Available online at www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2011/Power%20Points%202011/ 6-3-Kong-WRFworkshop-11.pdf.]
    • (2011) Extended Abstracts, 12th WRF Users' Workshop
    • Kong, F.1
  • 31
    • 69949154702 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting lightning threat using cloud-resolving model simulations
    • McCaul, E. W., S. J. Goodman, K. M. LaCasse, and D. J. Cecil, 2009: Forecasting lightning threat using cloud-resolving model simulations. Wea. Forecasting 24, 709-729.
    • (2009) Wea. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 709-729
    • McCaul, E.W.1    Goodman, S.J.2    Lacasse, K.M.3    Cecil, D.J.4
  • 32
    • 33644784004 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting convective initiation by monitoring the evolution of moving cumulus in daytime GOES imagery
    • Mecikalski, J. R., and K. M. Bedka, 2006: Forecasting convective initiation by monitoring the evolution of moving cumulus in daytime GOES imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 49-78.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 49-78
    • Mecikalski, J.R.1    Bedka, K.M.2
  • 33
    • 0141745004 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nowcasting storm initiation and growth using GOES-8 and WSR-88D data
    • Roberts, R. D., and S. Rutledge, 2003: Nowcasting storm initiation and growth using GOES-8 and WSR-88D data. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 562-584.
    • (2003) Wea. Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 562-584
    • Roberts, R.D.1    Rutledge, S.2
  • 34
    • 77955525072 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP North American Mesoscale modeling system: Recent changes and future plans. Preprints
    • Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Rogers, E., and Coauthors, 2009: The NCEP North American Mesoscale modeling system: Recent changes and future plans. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2A.4. [Available online at https://ams.confex. com/ams/pdfpapers/154114.pdf.]
    • (2009) 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction , vol.2 A , Issue.4
    • Rogers, E.1
  • 36
    • 81855177037 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on the identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts
    • Sobash, R A., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, and S. J. Weiss, 2011: Probabilistic forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on the identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 714-728.
    • (2011) Wea. Forecasting , vol.26 , pp. 714-728
    • Sobash, R.A.1    Kain, J.S.2    Bright, D.R.3    Dean, A.R.4    Coniglio, M.C.5    Weiss, S.J.6
  • 37
    • 0034465573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of small-scale moisture variability on thunderstorm initiation
    • Weckwerth, T. M., 2000: The effect of small-scale moisture variability on thunderstorm initiation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 4017-4030.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.128 , pp. 4017-4030
    • Weckwerth, T.M.1
  • 38
    • 0027009938 scopus 로고
    • The initiation and organization of convective cells atop a cold-air outflow boundary
    • - and R. M. Wakimoto, 1992: The initiation and organization of convective cells atop a cold-air outflow boundary. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2169-2187.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.120 , pp. 2169-2187
    • Wakimoto, R.M.1
  • 39
    • 33644764297 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of convection initiation and motivation for IHOP-2002
    • - and D. B. Parsons, 2006: A review of convection initiation and motivation for IHOP-2002. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 5-22.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 5-22
    • Parsons, D.B.1
  • 40
    • 48649108162 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experiences with 0-36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model
    • Weisman, M. L., C. Davis, W. Wang, K. W. Manning, and J. B. Klemp, 2008: Experiences with 0-36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 407-437.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 407-437
    • Weisman, M.L.1    Davis, C.2    Wang, W.3    Manning, K.W.4    Klemp, J.B.5
  • 41
    • 0022823437 scopus 로고
    • Initiation of convective storms at radar-observed boundary-layer convergence lines
    • Wilson, J. W., and W. E. Schreiber, 1986: Initiation of convective storms at radar-observed boundary-layer convergence lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2516-2536.
    • (1986) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.114 , pp. 2516-2536
    • Wilson, J.W.1    Schreiber, W.E.2
  • 42
    • 33644759621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP: Observational and modeling perspective
    • - and R. D. Roberts, 2006: Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP: Observational and modeling perspective. Mon. Wea Rev., 134, 23-47.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 23-47
    • Roberts, R.D.1
  • 43
    • 0027076994 scopus 로고
    • The role of boundary-layer convergence zones and horizontal rolls in the initiation of thunderstorms: A case study
    • - G. B. Foote, N. A. Cr.ook, J. C. Fankhauser, C. G. Wade, J. D. Tuttle, C. K. Mueller, and S. K. Krueger, 1992: The role of boundary-layer convergence zones and horizontal rolls in the initiation of thunderstorms: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1785-1815.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.120 , pp. 1785-1815
    • Foote, G.B.1    Crook, N.A.2    Fankhauser, J.C.3    Wade, C.G.4    Tuttle, J.D.5    Mueller, C.K.6    Krueger, S.K.7
  • 44
    • 80555136732 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ) system: Description, results, and future plans
    • Zhang, J., and Coauthors, 2011: National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ) system: Description, results, and future plans. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 1321-1338.
    • (2011) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.92 , pp. 1321-1338
    • Zhang, J.1
  • 45
    • 0032434568 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The initiation of moist convection at the dryline: Forecasting issues from a case study perspective
    • Ziegler, C. L., and E. N. Rasmussen, 1998: The initiation of moist convection at the dryline: Forecasting issues from a case study perspective. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1106-1131.
    • (1998) Wea. Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 1106-1131
    • Ziegler, C.L.1    Rasmussen, E.N.2
  • 46
    • 0000781159 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convective initiation at the dryline: A modeling study
    • - T. Lee, and R. Pielke, 1997: Convective initiation at the dryline: A modeling study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1001-1026.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 1001-1026
    • Lee, T.1    Pielke, R.2
  • 47
    • 34547691050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The "triple point" on 24 May 2002 during IHOP. Part II: Ground-radar and in situ boundary layer analysis of cumulus development and convection initiation
    • - E. Rasmussen, M. Buban, Y. Richardson, L. J. Miller, and R. Rabin, 2007: The "triple point" on 24 May 2002 during IHOP. Part II: Ground-radar and in situ boundary layer analysis of cumulus development and convection initiation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 2443-2472.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 2443-2472
    • Rasmussen, E.1    Buban, M.2    Richardson, Y.3    Miller, L.J.4    Rabin, R.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.