Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

Agronomy for Sustainable Development

Volumn 33, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 363-374

  Ye, Liming ^a,b   Xiong, Wei ^a   Li, Zhengguo ^a   Yang, Peng ^a   Wu, Wenbin ^a   Yang, Guixia ^a   Fu, Yijiang ^c   Zou, Jinqiu ^a   Chen, Zhongxin ^a   Van Ranst, Eric ^b   Tang, Huajun ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF PLANT PROTECTION   (China)

^b GHENT UNIVERSITY   (Belgium)

^c RENMIN UNIVERSITY OF CHINA   (China)

Author keywords

China; Climate change; Crop modeling; Crop yield; Food production; Food security; Policy; Scenario

Indexed keywords

BIOINDICATOR; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP YIELD; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; FERTILIZER APPLICATION; FOOD PRODUCTION; FOOD SECURITY; POLICY MAKING; POPULATION GROWTH; POPULATION SIZE; URBANIZATION;

CHINA;

EID: 84879597665     PISSN: 17740746     EISSN: 17730155     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s13593-012-0102-0     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Alston JM, Beddow JM, Pardey PG (2009) Agricultural research, productivity, and food prices in the long run. Science 325:1209-1210. doi: 10.1126/science.1170451
2. Challinor AJ, Wheeler T, Hemming D, Upadhyaya HD (2009) Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change. Clim Res 38:117-127. doi: 10.3354/cr00779
3. Challinor AJ, Simelton ES, Fraser EDG, Hemming D, Collins M (2010) Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China. Environ Res Lett 5:034012. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034012
4. Change GH, Brada FC (2006) The paradox of China's growing under-urbanization. Econ Syst 30:24-40. doi: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2005.07.002
5. Easterling WE, Chen X, Hays C, Brandle JR, Zhang H (1996) Improving the validation of model-simulated crop yield response to climate change: an application to the EPIC model. Clim Res 6:263-273. doi: 10.3354/cr0006263
6. Ehrlich PR, Ehrlich AH (2009) The population bomb revisited. Electron J Sust Dev 1:63-71
7. Godfray HCJ, Pretty J, Thomas SM, Warham EJ, Beddington JR (2011) Linking policy on climate and food. Science 331:1013-1014. doi: 10.1126/science.1202899
8. Gosling SN, Warren R, Arnell NW, Good P, Caesar J, Bernie D, Lowe JA, van der Linden P, O'Hanley JR, Smith SM (2011) A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: the global-scale impacts of climate change. Progr Phys Geogr 35:443-464. doi: 10.1177/0309133311407650
9. Guo JH, Liu XJ, Zhang Y, Shen JL, Han WX, Zhang WF, Christie P, Goulding KWT, Vitousek PM, Zhang FS (2010) Significant acidification in major Chinese croplands. Science 327:1008-1010. doi: 10.1126/science.1182570
10. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:14288-14293. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0606291103
11. Hopfenberg R, Pimentel D (2001) Human population numbers as a function of food supply. Environ Dev Sustain 3:1-5. doi: 10.1023/A:1011463231976
12. Jiang T (2008) WTO accession and food security in China. In: Chen C, Duncam R (eds) Agriculture and food security in China. The Australian National University E Press and Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, pp 183-202
13. Jin J (2011) Changes in the efficiency of fertilizer use in China. J Sci Food Agric 92:1002-1009. doi: 10.1002/jsfa.4700
14. Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, Wilkens PW, Singh U, Gijsman AJ, Ritchie JT (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235-265. doi: 10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7
15. Knox JW, Matthews RB, Wassmann R (2000) Using a crop/soil simulation model and GIS techniques to assess methane emissions from rice fields in Asia. III. Database. Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst 58:179-199. doi: 10.1023/A:1009898720354
16. Kotir JH (2011) Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security. Environ Dev Sustain 13:587-605. doi: 10.1007/s10668-010-9278-0
17. Li W, Takahashi T, Suzuki N, Kaiser HM (2011) The impact of climate change on maize yield in the United States and China. Agr Syst 104:348-353
18. 2 fertilization in China. Phil Trans R Soc B 360:2149-2154. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1743
19. Lobell DB, Field CB (2007) Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ Res Lett 2:014002. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002
20. 2 and crop yields since 1961. Glob Chang Biol 14:39-45. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486. 2007.01476.x
21. Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607-610. doi: 10.1126/science.1152339
22. Long SP (2012) Virtual Special Issue on food security - greater than anticipated impacts of near-term global atmospheric change on rice and wheat. Glob Chang Biol 18:1489-1490. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02676.x
23. Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Leakey ADB, Nösberger J, Ort DR (2006) Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312:1918-1921. doi: 10.1126/science.1114722
24. Molden D, Sakthivadivel R (1999) Water accounting to assess use and productivity of water. Int J Water Resour Dev 15:55-71. doi: 10.1080/07900629948934
25. NBSC (National Bureau of Statistics of China) (2010) Statistical yearbook of China 2010. China Statistical Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
26. NOARP (National Office of Agricultural Regional Planning) (1997) China agricultural resource planning and development strategies. Meteorological Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
27. Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:53-67. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha. 2003.10.008
28. Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Livermore M (2005) Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger. Phil Trans R Soc B 360:2125-2138. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1751
29. Pawls WJ, Brakensiek DL, Saxton KE (1982) Estimation of soil water properties. Trans ASAE 25:1316-1320, 1328
30. Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y, Friedlingstein P, Liu C, Tan K, Yu Y, Zhang T, Fang J (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43-51. doi: 10.1038/nature09364
31. Pohlert T (2004) Use of empirical global radiation models for maize growth simulation. Agric For Meteorol 126:47-58. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2004. 05.003
32. Portmann FT, Siebert S, Döll P (2010) MIRCA2000 - global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: a new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 24:GB1011. doi: 10.1029/2008GB003435
33. Rötter RP, Carter TR, Olesen JE, Porter JR (2011) Crop-climate models need an overhaul. Nature Climate Change 1:175-177. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1152
34. Schmidhuber J, Tubiello FN (2007) Global food security under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:19703-19708. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701976104
35. Steltzer H, Post E (2009) Seasons and life cycles. Science 324:886-887. doi: 10.1126/science.1171542
36. Tester M, Langridge P (2010) Breeding technologies to increase crop production in a changing world. Science 327:818-822. doi: 10.1126/science. 1183700
37. Tilman D, Cassman KG, Matson PA, Naylor R, Polasky R (2002) Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 418:671-677. doi: 10.1038/nature01014
38. Tubiello FN, Soussana J-F, Howden SM (2007) Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:19686-19690. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701728104
39. Turral H, Burke J, Faurès J-M (2011) Climate change, water and food security. FAO Water Reports 36. FAO, Rome
40. UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) (2010) State of the world population 2010. UNFPA, New York
41. Wu W, Tang H, Yang P, You L, Zhou Q, Chen Z, Shibasaki R (2011) Scenario-based assessment of future food security. J Geogr Sci 21:3-17. doi: 10.1007/s11442-011-0825-x
42. Xiong W, Matthews R, Holman I, Lin E (2007) Modelling China's potential maize production at regional scale under climate change. Clim Chang 85:433-451. doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9284-x
43. Xiong W, Conway D, Holman I, Lin E (2008a) Evaluation of CERES-wheat simulation of wheat production in China. Agron J 100:1720-1728. doi: 10.2134/agronj2008.0081
44. Xiong W, Holman I, Conway D, Lin E, Li Y (2008b) A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies. Ecol Model 213:365-380. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.005
45. Xu YL, Zhang Y, Lin ED, Wan T, Dong WJ, Jones R, Hassell D, Wilson S (2006) Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS. Chin Sci Bull 51:2260-2267. doi: 10.1007/s11434-006-2099- 8
46. Ye L, Van Ranst E (2009) Production scenarios and the effect of soil degradation on long-term food security in China. Glob Environ Chang 19:464-481. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.06.002
47. Ye L, Tang H, Zhu J, Verdoodt A, Van Ranst E (2008) Spatial patterns and effects of soil organic carbon on grain productivity assessment in China. Soil Use Manag 24:80-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-2743.2007.00136.x
48. Zhao J, Luo Q, Deng H, Yan Y (2008) Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China. Phil Trans R Soc B 363:893-904. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.2190