Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 40, Issue 11-12, 2013, Pages 3089-3105

  Dutton, John A ^a,b   James, Richard P ^a,b   Ross, Jeremy D ^a,b  

^a Prescient Weather Ltd   (United States)

^b State College   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate risk; Climate variability; Forecast calibration; Forecast reliability; Forecast skill; Fraction correct; Intraseasonal forecast; Probability forecast; Seasonal forecast; Success ratio

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CALIBRATION; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; REAL TIME; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84878111592     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1764-2     Document Type: Article

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