Asynchronous food-web pathways could buffer the response of Serengeti predators to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Ecology

Volumn 94, Issue 5, 2013, Pages 1123-1130

  Sinclair, A R E ^a,b   Metzger, Kristine L ^a,b   Fryxell, John M ^b,c   Packer, Craig ^d   Byrom, Andrea E ^e   Craft, Meggan E ^f   Hampson, Katie ^g   Lembo, Tiziana ^g   Durant, Sarah M ^b,h,i   Forrester, Guy J ^e   Bukombe, John ^b   McHetto, John ^b   Dempewolf, Jan ⁱ   Hilborn, Ray ^j   Cleaveland, Sarah ^f   Nkwabi, Ally ^b   Mosser, Anna ^c   Mduma, Simon A R ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^b TANZANIA WILDLIFE RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Tanzania)

^c UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

^e LANDCARE RESEARCH   (New Zealand)

^f UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW   (United Kingdom)

^g INSTITUTE OF ZOOLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^h WILDLIFE CONSERVATION SOCIETY   (United States)

ⁱ Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network   (United States)

^j UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

Demography; Ecosystem stability; El Ni o Southern Oscillation; ENSO; Environmental stochasticity; Rainfall; Recruitment; Serengeti food web; SOI; Southern Oscillation Index; Trophic interaction

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

CARNIVORE; DEMOGRAPHY; DISTURBANCE; ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FOOD WEB; HERBIVORE; PREDATOR-PREY INTERACTION; RAINFALL; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); STOCHASTICITY; SYNCHRONY; TROPHIC LEVEL;

AFRICA; ANIMAL; ANTELOPE; ARTICLE; BIRD; EL NINO; FOOD CHAIN; MAMMAL; PLANT; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREDATION; SEASON; TIME;

AFRICA; ANIMALS; ANTELOPES; BIRDS; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FOOD CHAIN; MAMMALS; PLANTS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREDATORY BEHAVIOR; RAIN; SEASONS; TIME FACTORS;

SERENGETI; TANZANIA;

EID: 84878032490     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/12-0428.1     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Anyamba, A., C. J. Tucker, and R. Mahoney. 2002. From El Nin? o to La Nin? a: vegetation response patterns over East and Southern Africa during the 1997-2000 period. Journal of Climate 15:3096-3103.
2. Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones. 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research 111(D12):D12106.
3. Coulson, T., E. A. Catchpole, S. D. Albon, B. J. T. Morgan, J. M. Pemberton, T. H. Clutton-Brock, M. J. Crawley, and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science 292:1528-1531.
4. Dempewolf, J., S. Trigg, R. S. DeFries, and S. Eby. 2007. Burned-area mapping of the Serengeti-Mara region using MODIS reflectance data. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 4:312-316.
5. Durant, S. M., S. Bashir, T. Maddox, and M. K. Laurenson. 2007. Relating long-term studies to conservation practice: the case of the Serengeti Cheetah Project. Conservation Biology 21:602-611.
6. Estes, J. A., et al. 2011. Trophic downgrading of planet Earth. Science 333:301-306.
7. Fryxell, J. M., C. Packer, K. S. McCann, E. J. Solberg, and B. E. Saether. 2010. Resource management cycles and the sustainability of harvested wildlife populations. Science 328: 903-906.
8. Hampson, K., et al. T. 2011. Predictability of anthrax infection in the Serengeti, Tanzania. Journal of Applied Ecology 48(6): 1333-1344.
9. Holdo, R. M., R. D. Holt, and J. M. Fryxell. 2009a. Opposing rainfall and plant nutritional gradients best explain the wildebeest migration in the Serengeti. American Naturalist 173:431-445.
10. Holdo, R. M., A. R. E. Sinclair, K. L. Metzger, B. M. Bolker, A. P. Dobson, M. E. Ritchie, and R. D. Holt. 2009b. A disease-mediated trophic cascade in the Serengeti and its implications for ecosystem C. PLoS Biology 7(9):e1000210.
11. Holmes, E. E., E. J. Ward, and K. Wills. 2012. Marss: multivariate autoregressive state-space models for analyzing time-series data. The R Journal 4:11-19.
12. Holmgren, M., et al. 2006. Extreme climatic events shape arid and semiarid ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 4:87-95.
13. Ives, A. R., and S. L. Carpenter. 2007. Stability and diversity of ecosystems. Science 317:58-62.
14. Ives, A. R., B. Dennis, K. L. Cottingham, and S. L. Carpenter. 2003. Estimating community stability and ecological interactions from time-series data. Ecological Monographs 73: 301-330.
15. Leirs, H., N. C. Stenseth, J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, R. Verhagen, and W. Verheyen. 1997. Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent. Nature 389:176-180.
16. Leirs, H., R. Verhagen, W. Verheyen, P. Mwanjabe, and T. Mbise. 1996. Forecasting rodent outbreaks in Africa: an ecological basis for Mastomys control in Tanzania. Journal of Applied Ecology 33:937-943.
17. Lima, M., N. C. Stenseth, and F. M. Jaksic. 2002. Food web structure and climate effects on the dynamics of small mammals and owls in semi-arid Chile. Ecology Letters 5:273-284.
18. May, R. M. 1973. Diversity and stability in model ecosystems. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
19. McCann, K. S. 2012. Food webs. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
20. McCann, K. S., and N. Rooney. 2009. The more food webs change, the more they stay the same. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 364:1789-1801.
21. Mduma, S. A. R., A. R. E. Sinclair, and R. Hilborn. 1999. Food regulates the Serengeti wildebeest: a 40-year record. Journal of Animal Ecology 68:1101-1122.
22. Mosser, A., J. M. Fryxell, L. Eberly, and C. Packer. 2009. Serengeti real estate: density versus fitness-based indicators of lion habitat quality. Ecology Letters 12:1050-1060.
23. Munson, L., K. A. Terio, R. Kock, T. Mlengeya, M. E. Roelke, D. Dubovi, B. Summers, A. R. E. Sinclair, and C. Packer. 2008. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions. PLoS ONE 3(6): e2545.
24. Murdoch, W. W., C. J. Briggs, and R. M. Nisbet. 2003. Consumer-resource dynamics. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
25. Norton-Griffiths, M., D. Herlocker, and L. Pennycuick. 1975. The patterns of rainfall in the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania. East African Wildlife Journal 13:347-374.
26. Oba, G., E. Post, and N. C. Stenseth. 2001. Sub-saharan desertification and productivity are linked to hemispheric climate variability. Global Change Biology 7:241-246.
27. Ogutu, J. O., and N. Owen-Smith. 2003. ENSO, rainfall and temperature influences on extreme population declines among African savanna ungulates. Ecology Letters 6:412-419.
28. Ogutu, J. O., H. P. Piepho, H. T. Dublin, N. Bhola, and R. S. Reid. 2008. El Nin? o-Southern Oscillation, rainfall, temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index fluctuations in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. African Journal of Ecology 46:132-143.
29. Owen-Smith, N., D. R. Mason, and J. O. Ogutu. 2005. Correlates of survival rates for 10 African ungulate populations: density, rainfall and predation. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:774-788.
30. Owen-Smith, N., and M. G. L. Mills. 2006. Manifold interaction influences on the population dynamics of a multi-species ungulate assemblage. Ecological Monographs 76:73-92.
31. Owen-Smith, N., and M. G. L. Mills. 2008. Shifting prey selection generates contrasting herbivore dynamics within a large-mammal predator-prey web. Ecology 89:1120-1133.
32. Packer, C. 1983. Demographic changes in a colony of Nile grassrats (Arvicanthis niloticus) in Tanzania. Journal of Mammalogy 64:159-161.
33. Packer, C., R. Hilborn, A. Mosser, B. Kissui, M. Borner, G. Hopcraft, J. Wilmshurst, S. Mduma, and A. R. E. Sinclair. 2005. Ecological change, group territory, and population dynamics in Serengeti lions. Science 307:390-393.
34. Packer, C., A. E. Pusey, and L. E. Eberly. 2001. Egalitarianism in female African lions. Science 293:690-693.
35. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D14):4407.
36. Ripa, J., and A. R. Ives. 2003. Food web dynamics in correlated and autocorrelated environments. Theoretical Population Biology 64:369-384.
37. Ritchie, M. 2008. Global environmental changes and their impact on the Serengeti. Pages 138-208 in A. R. E. Sinclair, C. Packer, S. A. R. Mduma, and J. M. Fryxell, editors.
38. Serengeti III: human impacts on ecosystem dynamics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
39. Senzota, R. B. M. 1982. The habitat and food habits of the grass rats (Arvicanthis niloticus) in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. African Journal of Ecology 20:241-252.
40. Sinclair, A. R. E. 1995. Population limitation of resident herbivores. Pages 3-10 in A. R. E. Sinclair and P. Arcese, editors. Serengeti II: dynamics, management and conservation of an ecosystem. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
41. Sinclair, A. R. E., H. Dublin, and M. Borner. 1985. Population regulation of Serengeti wildebeest: a test of the food hypothesis. Oecologia 65:266-268.
42. Sinclair, A. R. E., S. A. R. Mduma, and P. Arcese. 2000. What determines phenology and synchrony of ungulate breeding in Serengeti? Ecology 81:2100-2111.
43. Sinclair, A. R. E., S. A. R. Mduma, J. G. C. Hopcraft, J. M. Fryxell, R. Hilborn, and S. Thirgood. 2007. Long-term ecosystem dynamics in the Serengeti: lessons for conservation. Conservation Biology 21:580-590.
44. Sinclair, A. R. E., K. Metzger, J. S. Brashares, A. Nkwabi, G. Sharam, and J. M. Fryxell. 2010. Trophic cascades in African savannas: Serengeti as a case study. Pages 255-274 in J. Terborgh and J. A. Estes, editors. Trophic cascades: predators, prey and the changing dynamics of nature, Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
45. Tucker, C. J., J. Pinzon, and M. E. Brown. 2004. Global inventory modeling and mapping studies. NA94apr15b.n11-Vlg, 2.0. Global Land Cover Facility, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA.
46. Tucker, C. J., J. E. Pinzon, M. E. Brown, D. A. Slayback, E.W. Pak, R. Mahoney, E. F. Vermote, and N. El Saleous. 2005. An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26:4485-4498.