An epidemiologic simulation model of the spread and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) among commercial and backyard poultry flocks in South Carolina, United States

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

Volumn 110, Issue 3-4, 2013, Pages 510-524

  Patyk, Kelly A ^a   Helm, Julie ^b   Martin, Michael K ^b   Forde Folle, Kimberly N ^c   Olea Popelka, Francisco J ^d   Hokanson, John E ^e   Fingerlin, Tasha ^e   Reeves, Aaron ^d  

^a CENTERS FOR EPIDEMIOLOGY AND ANIMAL HEALTH   (United States)

^b CLEMSON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE   (United States)

^d Veterinary Dentistry and Oral Surgery   (United States)

^e Food Science and Human Nutrition   (United States)

Author keywords

Animal disease model; Avian influenza; H5N1; South Carolina; Stochastic simulation

Indexed keywords

ANIMAL; ANIMAL HUSBANDRY; ARTICLE; AVIAN INFLUENZA; BIRD DISEASE; CHICKEN; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; FEMALE; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H5N1; MALE; PATHOGENICITY; PHYSIOLOGY; QUAIL; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; THEORETICAL MODEL; TURKEY (BIRD); UNITED STATES; VIROLOGY;

ANIMAL HUSBANDRY; ANIMALS; CHICKENS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FEMALE; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H5N1 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA IN BIRDS; MALE; MODELS, THEORETICAL; POULTRY DISEASES; QUAIL; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SOUTH CAROLINA; TURKEYS;

ANIMALIA; AVES;

EID: 84877715494     PISSN: 01675877     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.01.003     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Alexander D.J. Orthomyxoviridae (Avian Influenza). Poultry Diseases 1996, 156-165. W.B. Saunders Company Ltd, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. fourth ed. F.T.W. Jordan, M. Pattison (Eds.).
2. Alexander D.J., Brown I.H. History of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz. 2009, 28:19-38.
3. Bates T.W., Thurmond M.C., Carpenter T.E. Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Am. J. Vet. Res. 2003, 64:195-204.
4. Bates T.W., Thurmond M.C., Carpenter T.E. Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Am. J. Vet. Res. 2003, 64:205-210.
5. Bavinck V., Bouma A., van Boven M., Bos M.E.H., Stassen E., Stegeman J.A. The role of backyard poultry flocks in the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H7N7) in the Netherlands in 2003. Prev. Vet. Med. 2009, 88:247-254.
6. Bell D.D., Weaver W.D.J. Commercial Chicken Meat and Egg Production 2002, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, Massachusetts, USA. fifth ed.
7. Boender G.J., Hagenaars T.J., Bouma A., Nodelijk G., Elbers A.R.W., de Jong M.C.M., van Boven M. Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry. PLoS Comput. Biol. 2007, 3:704-712.
8. Bos M.E.H., Nielen M., Koch G., Bouma A., de Jong M.C.M., Stegeman A. Back-calculation method shows that within-flock transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N7) virus in the Netherlands is not influenced by housing risk factors. Prev. Vet. Med. 2009, 88:278-285.
9. Busani L., Valsecchi M.G., Rossi E., Toson M., Ferrè N., Pozza M.D., Marangon S. Risk factors for highly pathogenic H7N1 avian influenza virus infection in poultry during the 1999-2000 epidemic in Italy. Vet. J. 2009, 181:171-177.
10. Canty, A., Ripley, B., 2012. boot: Bootstrap R (S-Plus) Functions, version 1.3-4. Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://cran.r-project.org/package=boot.
11. Capua I., Alexander D.J. Human health implications of avian influenza viruses and paramyxoviruses. Eur. J. Clin. Microbiol. Infect. Dis. 2004, 23:1-6.
12. Capua I., Alexander D.J. The challenge of avian influenza to the veterinary community. Avian Pathol. 2006, 35:189-205.
13. Capua I., Marangon S., dalla Pozza M., Terregino C., Cattoli G. Avian influenza in Italy 1997-2001. Avian Dis. 2003, 47:839-843.
14. Conover W.J. Practical Nonparametric Statistics 1999, Wiley, New York, USA. third ed.
15. Davison, A.C., Hinkley, D.V., 1997. Bootstrap Methods and Their Application. Gill, R., Ripley, B.D., Ross, S., Stein, M., Williams, D. (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
16. DEFRA - National Emergency Epidemiology Group, 2007. Outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Suffolk in January 2007. Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://archive.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/farmanimal/diseases/atoz/ai/documents/epid_findings070405.pdf.
17. Diciccio T.J., Efron B. Bootstrap confidence intervals. Stat. Sci. 1996, 11:189-228.
18. Dorea F.C., Vieira A.R., Hofacre C., Waldrip D., Cole D.J. Stochastic model of the potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza from an infected commercial broiler operation in Georgia. Avian Dis. 2010, 54:713-719.
19. Easterday B.C., Hinshaw V.S., Halvorson D.A. Influenza. Diseases of Poultry 1997, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, USA, pp. 583-605. third ed. B.W. Calnek (Ed.).
20. Efron B., Tibshirani R.J. An Introduction to the Bootstrap 1994, Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
21. Elbers A.R.W., Fabri T.H.F., de Vries T.S., de Wit J.J., Pijpers A., Koch G. The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N7) virus epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003: lessons learned from the first five outbreaks. Avian Dis. 2004, 48:691-705.
22. Flora, J.R.V., Riahi-Nezhad, C., 2006. Availability of poultry manure as a potential bio-fuel feedstock for energy production. South Carolina Energy Office, Columbia, South Carolina, USA. Available at: Accessed October 23, 2012. http://www.energy.sc.gov/publications/Poultry%20Litter%20Final%20Report.pdf.
23. Garner M.G., Beckett S.D. Modelling the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia. Aust. Vet. J. 2005, 83:758-766.
24. Halvorson D.A. Prevention and management of avian influenza outbreaks: experiences from the United States of America. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz. 2009, 28:359-369.
25. Harvey N., Reeves A., Schoenbaum M.A., Zagmutt-Vergara F.J., Dubé C., Hill A.E., Corso B.A., McNab W.B., Cartwright C.I., Salman M.D. The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: a simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions. Prev. Vet. Med. 2007, 82:176-197.
26. Haukoos J.S., Lewis R.J. Advanced statistics: bootstrapping confidence intervals for statistics with " difficult" distributions. Acad. Emerg. Med. 2005, 12:360-365.
27. Hill, A., Reeves, A., 2006. User's Guide for the North American Animal Disease Spread Model 3.0, second ed. Colorado State University, Animal Population Health Institute, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://naadsm.org/documentation/guide.
28. Karsten S., Rave G., Krieter J. Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control: I. General concepts and description of the model. Vet. Microbiol. 2005, 108:199-205.
29. Kruskal W., Wallis W.A. Use of ranks in one-criterion variance analysis. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1952, 47:583-621.
30. Leibler J.H., Carone M., Silbergeld E.K. Contribution of company affiliation and social contacts to risk estimates of between-farm transmission of avian influenza. PLoS Pathog. 2010, 5:e9888.
31. Mannelli A., Ferre N., Marangon S. Analysis of the 1999-2000 highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N1) epidemic in the main poultry-production area in northern Italy. Prev. Vet. Med. 2006, 73:273-285.
32. Martin, M.K., 2009. Use It, Don't Abuse It: Responsible Use of Sensitive Data for Epidemiology. Convention Notes, 146th AVMA Annual Convention, July 11-14, 2009, Seattle, Washington, USA.
33. NAADSM Development Team, 2010. Model Description: North American Animal Disease Spread Model 3.2, version 1.2.1. Harvey, N., Reeves, A. (Eds.). Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://www.naadsm.org/documentation/specification.
34. OIE (Office International des Epizooties; World Organization for Animal Health), 2012. OIE-Terrestrial Animal Health Code: Infection with viruses of notifiable avian influenza. Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://www.oie.int/index.php%3Fid=169%26L=0%26htmfile=chapitre_1.10.4.htm.
35. Reeves, A., 2010. Combining data from several sources to produce a single set of contact spread parameters for NAADSM. Animal Population Health Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://www.naadsm.org/techpapers.
36. Schoenbaum M.A., Disney W.T. Modeling alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States. Prev. Vet. Med. 2003, 58:25-52.
37. Sharkey K.J., Bowers R.G., Morgan K.L., Robinson S.E., Christley R.M. Epidemiological consequences of an incursion of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into the British poultry flock. P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci. 2008, 275:19-28.
38. Sims L.D., Ellis T.M., Liu K.K., Dyrting K., Wong H., Peiris M., Guan Y., Shortridge K.F. Avian influenza in Hong Kong 1997-2002. Avian Dis. 2003, 47:832-838.
39. Spekreijse D., Bouma A., Stegeman J.A., Koch G., de Jong M.C.M. The effect of inoculation dose of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain H5N1 on the infectiousness of chickens. Vet. Microbiol. 2011, 147:59-66.
40. Ssematimba A., Elbers A.R.W., Hagenaars T.J., de Jong M.C.M. Estimating the per-contact probability of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N7) virus during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. PLoS One 2012, 7:e40929.
41. Ssematimba, A., Hagenaars, T.J., de Wit, J.J., Ruiterkamp, F., Fabri, T.H., Stegeman, J.A., de Jong, M.C.M., 2012b. Avian influenza transmission risks: Analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming. Prev. Vet. Med. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2012.09.001.
42. Stallknecht D.E., Brown J.D. Ecology of Avian Influenza in Wild Birds. Avian Influenza 2008, 43-58. Blackwell Publishing, Ames, Iowa, USA. D.E. Swayne (Ed.).
43. Suarez D.L. Influenza A virus. Avian Influenza 2008, 3-22. Blackwell Publishing, Ames, Iowa, USA. D.E. Swayne (Ed.).
44. Swayne D.E. Epidemiology of Avian Influenza in Agricultural and Other Man-Made Systems. Avian Influenza 2008, 59-85. Blackwell Publishing, Ames, Iowa, USA. D.E. Swayne (Ed.).
45. Swayne D.E. Avian Influenza. United States Animal Health Association Foreign Animal Diseases 2008, 137-146. Boca Publications Group, Boca Raton, Florida, USA. seventh ed. C.C. Brown, A. Torres (Eds.).
46. Swayne D.E., Halvorson D.A. Influenza. Diseases of Poultry 2008, 153-184. Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, USA. 12th ed. Y.M. Saif (Ed.).
47. Taylor, N., 2003. Review of the use of models in informing disease control policy development and adjustment. DEFRA. Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://epicentre.massey.ac.nz/resources/acvsc_grp/docs/Taylor_2003.pdf.
48. Thomas M.E., Bouma A., Ekker H.M., Fonken A.J.M., Stegeman J.A., Nielen M. Risk factors for the introduction of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus into poultry farms during the epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003. Prev. Vet. Med. 2005, 69:1-11.
49. USDA, 2005. Poultry '04: Reference of health and management of backyard/small production flocks in the United States, 2004. Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
50. USDA-NASS, 2012. 2007 Census of Agriculture State Profile: South Carolina. Available at: Accessed October 22, 2012. http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Ag_Overview/AgOverview_SC.pdf.
51. Van Der Goot J.A., De Jong M.C.M., Koch G., van Boven M. Comparison of the transmission characteristics of low and high pathogenicity avian influenza A virus (H5N2). Epidemiol. Infect. 2003, 131:1003-1013.
52. Vieira A.R., Hofacre C.L., Smith J.A., Cole D. Human contacts and potential pathways of disease introduction on Georgia poultry farms. Avian Dis. 2009, 53:55-62.
53. Vose D. Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling 1996, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK.
54. Weaver J.T., Malladi S., Goldsmith T.J., Heuston W., Hennesey M., Lee B., Voss S., Funk J., Der C., Bjork K.E., Clouse T.L., Halvorson D.A. Impact of virus strain characteristics on early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza infection in commercial table-egg layer flocks and implications for outbreak control. Avian Dis. 2012, 56:905-912.
55. Yoon H., Park C.K., Nam H.M., Wee S.H. Virus spread pattern within infected chicken farms using regression model: the 2003-2004 HPAI epidemic in the Republic of Korea. J. Vet. Med. B 2005, 52:428-431.
56. Ypma, R.J.F., Jonges, M., Bataille, A., Stegeman, A., Koch, G., van Boven, M., Koopmans, M., van Ballegooijen, W.M., Wallinga, J., 2012. Genetic data provide evidence for wind-mediated transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza. J. Infect. Dis., accepted manuscript, doi:10.1093/infdis/jis757.