Modeling the influence of changing storm patterns on the ability of a salt marsh to keep pace with sea level rise

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface

Volumn 118, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 84-96

  Schuerch, M ^a   Vafeidis, A ^a   Slawig, T ^a   Temmerman, S ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KIEL   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ANTWERP   (Belgium)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COASTAL WETLAND; ESTUARY; MODELING; SALTMARSH; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; STORM;

FRISIAN ISLANDS; GERMANY; NORTH FRISIAN ISLANDS; SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN; SYLT;

EID: 84877674331     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21699011     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2012JF002471     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Allen, J. R. L. (1990), Salt-marsh growth and stratification: A numerical model with special reference to the Severn Estuary, southwest Britain, Mar. Geol., 95(2), 77-96, doi:10.1016/0025-3227(90)90042- I.
2. Andersen, T. J., and M. Pejrup (2001), Suspended sediment transport on a temperate, microtidal mudflat, the Danish Wadden Sea, Mar. Geol., 173(1-4), 69-85, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(00)00164-X.
3. Andersen, T. J., M. Lanuru, C. van Bernem, M. Pejrup, and R. Riethmueller (2010), Erodibility of a mixed mudflat dominated by microphytobenthos and Cerastodermaedule, East Frisian Wadden Sea, Germany, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 87(2), 197-206, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2009.10.014.
4. Andersen, T. J., S. Svinth, and M. Pejrup (2011), Temporal variation of accumulation rates on a natural salt marsh in the 20th century - The impact of sea level rise and increased inundation frequency, Mar. Geol., 279(1-4), 178-187, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2010.10.025.
5. Bakker, J. P., J. Bunje, K. Dijkema, J. Frikke, N. Hecker, B. Kers, P. Körber, J. Kohlus, and M. Stock (2005), Salt marshes, in Wadden Sea Quality Status Report 2004, Wadden Sea Ecosystem, No. 19, edited by K. Essink et al., pp. 163-179, Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Group, Common Wadden Sea Secretariat, Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
6. Barbier, E. B., S. D. Hacker, C. Kennedy, E. W. Koch, A. C. Stier, and B. R. Silliman (2011), The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services, Ecol. Monogr., 81(2), 169-193, doi:10.1890/10-1510.1.
7. Bartholdy, J., and T. Aagaard (2001), Storm surge effects on a back-barrier tidal flat of the Danish Wadden Sea, Geomar. Lett, 20(3), 133-141, doi:10.1007/s003670000048.
8. Bartholdy, A. T., J. Bartholdy, and A. Kroon (2010), Salt marsh stability and patterns of sedimentation across a backbarrier platform, Mar. Geol., 278(1-4), 31-42, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2010.09.001.
9. Bartholdy, J., C. Christiansen, and H. Kunzendorf (2004), Long term variations in backbarrier salt marsh deposition on the Skallingen peninsula - The Danish Wadden Sea, Mar. Geol, 203(1-2), 1-21, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(03) 00337-2.
10. Bartholomä, A., A. Kubicki, T. Badewien, and B. Flemming (2009), Suspended sediment transport in the German Wadden Sea - seasonal variations and extreme events, Ocean. Dynam., 59(2), 213-225, doi:10.1007/s10236-009-0193-6.
11. Bellucci, L. G, M. Frignani, J. K. Cochran, S. Albertazzi, L. Zaggia, G Cecconi, and H. Hopkins (2007), Pb-210 and Cs-137 as chronometers for salt marsh accretion in the Venice Lagoon - Links to flooding frequency and climate change, J. Environ. Radioact, 97(2-3), 85-102, doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2007.03. 005.
12. Boon, J. D. (2004), Secrets of the Tide: Tide and Tidal Current Analysis and Predictions, Storm Surges and Sea Level Trends, Woodhead Publishing, Cambridge, U. K.
13. Callaghan, D. P., T. J. Bouma, P. Klaassen, D. van der Wal, M. J. F. Stive, and P. M. J. Herman (2010), Hydrodynamic forcing on salt-marsh development: Distinguishing the relative importance of waves and tidal flows, Estuar Coast. Shelf Sci., 89(1), 73-88, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2010.05.013.
14. Church, J. A., and N. J. White (2006), A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett, 33(1), L01602, doi:10.1029/ 2005gl024826.
15. Coleman, T., Branch, M.A., and Grace, A. 1999. MATLAB Optimization Toolbox User's Guide, 3rd ed., MathWorks, Natick, Mass.
16. Craft, C, J. Clough, J. Ehman, S. Joye, R. Park, S. Pennings, H. Guo, and M. Machmuller (2008), Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services, Front. Ecol. Environ., 7(2), 73-78, doi:10.1890/070219.
17. DAlpaos, A., S. Lanzoni, M. Marani, and A. Rinaldo (2007), Landscape evolution in tidal embayments: Modeling the interplay of erosion, sedimentation, and vegetation dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F01008, doi:10.1029/ 2006JF000537.
18. D'Alpaos, A., M. S. Mudd, and L. Carniello (2011), Dynamic response of marshes to perturbations in suspended sediment concentrations and rates of relative sea level rise, J. Geophys. Res., 116, F04020, doi:10.1029/2011jf002093
19. Dijkema, K. S. (1987), Geography of salt marshes in Europe, Z. Geomorphol., 31, 489-499.
20. Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436(7051), 686-688, doi:10.1038/nature03906.
21. Fagherazzi, S., and A. M. Priestas (2010), Sediments and water fluxes in a muddy coastline: Interplay between waves and tidal channel hydrodynamics, Earth Surf. Process. Landf., 35(3), 284-293, doi:10.1002/esp.1909.
22. Fagherazzi, S., et al. (2012), Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG1002, doi:10.1029/2011rg000359.
23. Federal Interagency Sedimentation Project (FISP) (1961), The single-stage sampler for suspended sediment. A study of methods used in measurement and analysis sediment loads in streams. Rep. No. 13, Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C.
24. French, J. R. (1993), Numerical simulation of vertical marsh growth and adjustment to accelerated sea-level rise, North Norfolk, U.K., Earth Surf. Process. Landf., 18(1), 63-81, doi:10.1002/esp.3290180105.
25. French, J. (2006), Tidal marsh sedimentation and resilience to environmental change: Exploratory modelling of tidal, sea-level and sediment supply forcing in predominantly allochthonous systems, Mar. Geol., 235(1-4), 119-136, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2006.10.009.
26. French, J. R., T. Spencer, A. L. Murray, and N. S. Arnold (1995), Geostatistical analysis of sediment deposition in two small tidal wetlands, Norfolk, U.K., J. Coastal Res., 11(2), 308-321.
27. Graczyk, D. J., D. M. Robertson, W. J. Rose, and J. J. Steuer (2000), Comparison of water-quality samples collected by siphon samplers and automatic samplers in Wisconsin, U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 067-00, U.S. Geological Survey, Middleton, Wisc.
28. Kaas, E., et al. (2001), Synthesis of the STOWASUS-2100 project, in Regional storm, wave and surge scenarios for the 2100 century, Final project report ENV4-CT97-0498, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
29. Kirwan, M. L., and A. B. Murray (2007), A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 104(15), 6118-6122, doi:10.1073/pnas.0700958104.
30. Kirwan, M., and S. Temmerman (2009), Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration, Quarternary Sci. Rev., 28(17-18), 1801-1808, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.022.
31. Kirwan, M. L., G. R. Guntenspergen, A. D'Alpaos, J. T. Morris, S. M. Mudd, and S. Temmerman (2010), Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L23401, doi:10.1029/2010gl045489.
32. Knippertz, P., U. Ulbrich, and P. Speth (2000), Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment, Clim. Res., 15(2), 109-122, doi:10.3354/cr015109.
33. Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi (2010), Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nat. Geosci., 3(3), 157-163, doi:10.1038/ngeo779.
34. Kolker, A. S., S. L. Goodbred Jr, S. Hameed, and J. K. Cochran (2009), High-resolution records of the response of coastal wetland systems to long-term and short-term sea-level variability, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 84(4), 493-508, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2009.06.030.
35. Krone, R. (1987), A method for simulating historic marsh elevations, paper presented at Coastal Sediments, American Soc. of Civil Engineers, New Orleans, Louisiana.
36. Landesamt für Vermessung und Geoinformation Schlewig-Holstein (LvermGeoSH) (2010), Digitale Geländemodelle, in Produktkatolog, edited by LVermGeoSH, p. 34, Kiel, Germany.
37. Lanuru, M. (2004), The spatial and temporal patterns of erodibility of an intertidal flat in the East Frisian Wadden Sea, Germany, GKSS- Forschungszentrum, Geesthacht, Germany.
38. Leckebusch, G. C., and U. Ulbrich (2004), On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change, Global Planet. Change, 44(1-4), 181-193, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.011.
39. Marani, M., A. D'Alpaos, S. Lanzoni, L. Carniello, and A. Rinaldo (2010). The importance of being coupled: Stable states and catastrophic shifts in tidal biomorphodynamics. J. Geophys. Res., 115, F04004, doi:10.1029/2009JF001600.
40. Mariotti, G., and S. Fagherazzi (2010), A numerical model for the coupled long-term evolution of salt marshes and tidal flats, J. Geophys. Res., 115, F01004, doi:10.1029/2009jf001326.
41. Meehl, G. A., et al. (2007), Global climate projections, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 747-846, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
42. Mitchener, H., and H. Torfs (1996), Erosion of mud/sand mixtures, Coast. Eng., 29(1-2), 1-25, doi:10.1016/S0378-3839(96)00002-6.
43. Mitsch, W. J., and J. G. Gosselink (2000), The value of wetlands: Importance of scale and landscape setting, Ecol. Econ., 35, 25-33, doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00165-8.
44. Morris, J. T., P. V. Sundareshwar, C. T. Nietch, B. Kjerfve, and D. R Cahoon (2002), Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level, Ecology, 83, 2869-2877, doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2869: ROCWTR]2.0.CO;2.
45. Mudd, S. M., A. D'Alpaos, and J. T. Morris (2010), How does vegetation affect sedimentation on tidal marshes? Investigating particle capture and hydrodynamic controls on biologically mediated sedimentation, J. Geophys. Res., 115, F03029, doi:10.1029/2009jf001566.
46. Mueller, J.-M., R. Riethmueller, and R. Onker (2008), Multiple time scale analysis of suspended sediment concentration in the Wadden Sea, in Proceedings of the Int. Conference on Coastal Eng., Hamburg, Germany, 31 August to 5 September, 2008, pp. 149-151, World Scientific Publishing, Hamburg, Germany.
47. Müller-Navarra, S., and H. Giese (1999), Improvements of an empirical model to forecast wind surge in the German Bight, Ocean Dynam., 51(4), 385-405, doi:10.1007/bf02764162.
48. Nakicenovic, N, and R. Swart (Eds.) (2000), Special Report on Emission Scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
49. Pejrup, M. (1988), Flocculated suspended sediment in a micro-tidal environment, Sediment. Geol, 57(3-4), 249-256, doi:10.1016/0037-0738 (88)90032-2.
50. Pejrup, M., and O. A. Mikkelsen (2010), Factors controlling the field settling velocity of cohesive sediment in estuaries, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 87(2), 177-185.
51. Reise, K., M. Baptist, B. P., N. Dankers, L. Fischer, B. Flemming, A. P. Oost, and C. Smit (2010), The Wadden Sea - A universally outstanding tidal wetland, in The Wadden Sea 2010, Wadden Sea Ecosystem No. 29, edited by H. Marencic, and J. de Vlas, pp. 7-24, Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Group, Common Wadden Sea Secretariat (CWSS), Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
52. Schuerch, M., J. Rapaglia, V. Liebetrau, A. Vafeidis, and K. Reise (2012), Salt marsh accretion and storm tide variation: An example from a barrier island in the North Sea, Estuar. Coast, 35(2), 486-500, doi:10.1007/s12237-011- 9461-z.
53. Sequoia Scientific (2010), Converting LISST volume concentrations to mass concentrations, on http://www.sequoiasci.com/Articles/ArticlePage.aspx?pageid= 197, accessed 9 April 2012, Bellevue, Washington.
54. Shi, B. W., S. L. Yang, Y. P. Wang, T. J. Bouma, and Q. Zhu (2011), Relating accretion and erosion at an exposed tidal wetland to the bottom shear stress of combined current wave action, Geomorphology, 138(1), 380-389, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.10.004.
55. von Storch, H., and R. Weisse (2008), Regional storm climate and related marine hazards in the Northeast Atlantic, in Climate Extremes and Society, edited by H. F. Diaz, and R. J. Murnane, pp. 54-73, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
56. Temmerman, S., G Govers, P. Meire, and S. Wartel (2003), Modelling long-term tidal marsh growth under changing tidal conditions and suspended sediment concentrations, Scheldt estuary, Belgium, Mar. Geol, 193(1-2), 151-169, doi:Pii S0025-3227(02)00642-4.
57. Temmerman, S., G Govers, P. Meire, and S. Wartel (2004), Simulating the long-term development of levee-basin topography on tidal marshes, Geomorphology, 63(1-2), 39-55, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.03.004.
58. Temmerman, S., G Govers, S. Wartel, and P. Meire (2003), Spatial and temporal factors controlling short-term sedimentation in a salt and freshwater tidal marsh, Scheldt estuary, Belgium, SW Netherlands, Earth Surf. Process. Landf, 28(7), 739-755, doi:10.1002/esp.49.
59. Temmerman, S., G Govers, S. Wartel, and P. Meire (2004), Modelling estuarine variations in tidal marsh sedimentation: Response to changing sea level and suspended sediment concentrations, Mar. Geol, 212(1-4), 1-19, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2004.10.021.
60. The Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Program (TMAP) (2006), Salt marshes, edited by Nationalparkverwaltung Schleswig-Holsteinisches Wattenmeer, Tönning, Germany, on http://www.waddensea-secretariat.org/TMAP/Data-Unit/ Data.html, accessed 20 November 2008.
61. Töppe, A., and A. Führböter (1994), Recent anomalies in mean and high tidal water levels at the German North Sea coastline, J. Coastal Res., 10(1), 206-209.
62. Törnqvist, T. E., C. Paola, G Parker, K. Liu, D. Mohrig, J. M. Holbrook, and R. R. Twilley (2007), Comment on "Wetland sedimentation from hurricanes Katrina and Rita," Science, 316(5822), 201, doi:10.1126/science. 1136780.
63. Vermeer, M., and S. Rahmstorf (2009), Global sea level linked to global temperature, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 106(51), 21, 527-21, 532, doi:10.1073/pnas.0907765106.
64. Wahl, T., J. Jensen, and T. Frank (2010), On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst, 10(2), 171-179, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-171-2010.
65. Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. and Haigh, I., (2011), Improved estimates of mean sea level changes in the German Bight over the last 166 years. Ocean Dynam., 61, 701-715, doi:10.1007/s10236-011-0383-x.
66. Wang, A., X. Ye, and J. Chen (2010), Observations and analyses of floc size and floc settling velocity in coastal salt marsh of Luoyuan Bay, Fujian Province, China, Acta Oceanol. Sin., 29, 116-126, doi:10.1007/s13131-010-0043-x.
67. Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt Tönning (WSA) (2007), Wasserstandsinfor-mationen: Hörnum/Sylt, edited by WSV - Wasser- und Schifffahrtsver-waltung des Bundes, Bonn, Germany, on http://www.wsv.de/wsa-toe/ service/wasserstandinfo/index.html, accessed 27 August 2010.
68. Webster, P. J., G J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H. R. Chang (2005), Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment, Science, 309, 1844-1846, doi:10.1126/science.1116448.
69. Weisse, R., and A. Plüp (2006), Storm-related sea level variations along the North Sea coast as simulated by a high-resolution model 1958-2002, Ocean Dynam., 56, 16-25, doi:10.1007/s10236-005-0037-y.
70. van Wijnen, H. J., and J. P. Bakker (2001), Long-term surface elevation change in salt marshes: A prediction of marsh response to future sea-level rise, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 52(3), 381-390, doi:10.1006/ecss.2000.0744.
71. Woth, K., R. Weisse, and H. von Storch (2006), Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: An ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models, Ocean Dynam., 56, 3-15, doi:10.1007/s10236-005-0024-3.