Projections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 3, Issue 5, 2013, Pages 482-486

  Seager, Richard ^a   Ting, Mingfang ^a   Li, Cuihua ^a   Naik, Naomi ^a   Cook, Ben ^b   Nakamura, Jennifer ^a   Liu, Haibo ^a  

^a International Research Institute for Climate and Society   (United States)

^b NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GAS; HEADWATER; HYDROLOGICAL CHANGE; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; RIVER FLOW; RUNOFF; SOIL MOISTURE; SURFACE WATER; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER RESOURCE;

CALIFORNIA; COLORADO RIVER [NORTH AMERICA]; NEVADA; TEXAS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84877030266     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1787     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 19, 5686-5699 (2006).
2. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
3. Chou, C., Neelin, J. D., Chen, C-A. & Tu, J-Y. Evaluating the 'Rich-Get-Richer' mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Clim. 22, 1982-2005 (2009).
4. Seager, R., Naik, N. & Vecchi, G. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Clim. 23, 4651-4668 (2010).
5. Seager, R. et al. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwest North America. Science 316, 1181-1184 (2007).
6. Seager, R. & Vecchi, G. Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 21277-21282 (2010).
7. Cayan, D. R. et al. Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 21271-21276 (2010).
8. Christensen, N. & Lettenmaier, D. P. A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 1-44 (2007).
9. Barnett, T. P. & Pierce, D. W. Sustainable water deliveries form the Colorado River in a changing climate. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 7334-7338 (2009).
10. Hoerling, M. P., Lettenmeier, D. P., Cayan, D. R. & Udall, B. Reconciling projections of Colorado River streamflow. Southwest Hydrol. 8, 20-21 (2009).
11. Rajagopalan, B. et al. Water supply on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate? Water Resour. 45, W08201 (2009).
12. MacDonald, G. M. Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 21256-21262 (2010).
13. Adams, H. D. et al. Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global change-type drought. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 7063-7066 (2010).
14. Williams, A. P. et al. Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 21289-21294 (2010).
15. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meterorol. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012).
16. Moss, R. H. et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747-756 (2010).
17. Littell, J. S., McKenzie, D., Peterson, D. L. & Westerling, A. L. Climate and wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces 1916-2003. Ecol. Appl. 19, 1003-1021 (2009).
18. Weiss, J. L., Castro, C. L. & Overpeck, J. T. Distinguishing pronounced droughts in the southwestern United States: Seasonality and effects of warmer temperatures. J. Clim. 22, 5918-5932 (2009).
19. Dominguez, F., Kumar, P., Liang, X-Z. & Ting, M. Impact of atmospheric moisture storage on precipitation recycling. J. Clim. 19, 1513-1530 (2006).
20. Anderson, B. T., Ruane, A. C., Roads, J. O. & Kanamitsu, M. Estimating the influence of evaporation and moisture-flux convergence upon seasonal precipitation rates. Part II: An analysis for North America based upon NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II model. J. Hydrometerol. 10, 893-911 (2009).
21. Carle, D. Introduction to Water in California (Univ. California Press, 2004).
22. Vano, J. A., Das, T. & Lettenmaier, D. P. Hydrologic sensitivities of Colorado River runoff to changes in precipitation and temperature. J. Hydrometerol. 13, 932-949 (2012).
23. Water for Texas 2012 State Water Plan (Texas Water Development Board, 2012); available at http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/waterplanning/swp/.
24. Pierce, D.W. et al. Attribution of declining western US snowpack to human effect. J. Clim. 21, 6425-6444 (2008).
25. Das, T. et al. Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States. J. Hydrometerol. 10, 871-892 (2009).
26. Das, T., Pierce, D., Cayan, D., Vano, J. & Lettenmaier, D. The importance of warm season warming to western US streamflow changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L23403 (2011).
27. Meko, D. M. et al. Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L10705 (2007).
28. Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., MacDonald, G. M., Stahle, D. W. & Cook, E. R. A 1,200 year perspective of 21st Century drought in southwestern North America. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 50, 21283-21288 (2010).