Methodology for fitting and updating predictive accident models with trend

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volumn 56, Issue , 2013, Pages 82-94

  Connors, Richard D ^a   Maher, Mike ^a   Wood, Alan ^b   Mountain, Linda ^b   Ropkins, Karl ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

MCMC methods; Negative binomial; Overdispersion; Prediction uncertainty; Predictive accident models

Indexed keywords

ACCIDENT MODELS; MCMC METHOD; NEGATIVE BINOMIAL; OVERDISPERSION; PREDICTION UNCERTAINTY;

ACCIDENT PREVENTION; FORECASTING; HIGHWAY PLANNING;

ACCIDENTS;

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION; ENVIRONMENT; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SAFETY; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT; UNCERTAINTY; UNITED KINGDOM; PREVENTION AND CONTROL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA;

ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC; BAYES THEOREM; BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION; ENGLAND; ENVIRONMENT; MODELS, STATISTICAL; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SAFETY; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84876141557     PISSN: 00014575     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.03.009     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. AASHTO, 2010. Highway Safety Manual, 1st edition.
2. A.C. Cameron, and P.K. Trivedi Econometric models based on count data: comparisons and applications of some estimators and tests Journal of Applied Econometrics 1 1986 29 53
3. L. Cheng, S.R. Geedipally, and D. Lord The Poisson-Weibull Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crash Data Transportation Research Board 91st annual meeting, Washington DC, January 22-26 2012
4. DfT Road Casualties Great Britain 2009 2010 Department for Transport London, UK
5. DfT Transport Trends 2009 2010 Department for Transport London
6. R.D. Hall Accidents at Four-Arm Single Carriageway Urban Traffic Signals, Contractor Report CR65 1986 Transport Research Laboratory Crowthorne, UK
7. C. Han, and B.P. Carlin Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for computing Bayes factors: a comparative review Journal of American Statistical Association 96 455 2001 1122 1132
8. D.W. Harwood, F.M. Council, E. Hauer, W.E. Hughes, and A. Vogt Prediction of the Expected Safety Performance of Rural Two-Lane Highways. FHWA-RD-99-207 US Department of Transportation 2000
9. E. Hauer Overdispersion in modelling accidents on road sections and in empirical Bayes estimation Accident Analysis and Prevention 33 2001 799 808
10. E. Hauer, and J. Bamfo Two tools for finding what function links the dependent variable to the explanatory variables Proceedings of the ICTCT 1997 Conference Lund, Sweden 1997
11. H. Jeffreys Theory of Probability 3rd ed. 1961 Oxford University Press New York
12. R.E. Kass, and A.E. Raftery Bayes factors Journal of American Statistical Association 90 430 1995 773 795
13. D. Lord, and S.R. Geedipally The negative binomial - Lindley distribution as a tool for analyzing crash data characterized by a large amount of zeros Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 2011 1738 1742
14. D. Lord, and F.L. Mannering The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: a review and assessment of methodological alternatives Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 44 5 2010 291 305
15. D. Lord, and Y.-J Park Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 2008 1441 1457
16. D. Lord, S.P. Washington, and J.N. Ivan Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory Accident Analysis and Prevention 37 2005 35 46
17. D.J. Lunn, A. Thomas, N. Best, and D. Spiegelhalter WinBUGS - a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility Statistics and Computing 10 2000 325 337 http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/
18. M.J. Maher, and L.J. Mountain The sensitivity of estimates of regression to the mean Accident Analysis and Prevention 41 2009 861 868
19. M.J. Maher, and I. Summersgill A comprehensive methodology for the fitting of predictive accident models Accident Analysis and Prevention 28 3 1996 281 296
20. G. Maycock, and R.D. Hall Accidents at Four-Arm Roundabouts. Report LR1120 1984 Transport Research Laboratory Crowthorne, UK
21. P. McCullagh, and J.A. Nelder Generalized Linear Models 1983 Chapman and Hall London
22. S.-P. Miaou, and J.J. Song Bayesian ranking of sites for engineering safety improvements: decision parameter, treatability concept, statistical criterion, and spatial dependence Accident Analysis and Prevention 37 2005 699 720
23. S. Mitra, and S. Washington On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 2007 459 468
24. L.J. Mountain, W.M. Hirst, and M.J. Maher Are speed enforcement cameras more effective than other speed management measures? The impact of speed management schemes on 30 mph roads Accident Analysis and Prevention 37 2005 742 752
25. R.B. Noland, and M.A. Quddus A spatially disaggregate analysis of road casualties in England Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 6 2004 973 984
26. I. Ntzoufras Bayesian modelling using WinBUGS Wiley Series in Computational Statistics 2009
27. B. Persaud, D. Lord, and J. Palmisano Calibration and transferability of accident prediction models for urban intersections Transportation Research Record 1784 2002 57 64
28. B. Persaud, and C. Lyon Empirical Bayes before-after safety studies: lessons learned from two decades of experience and future directions Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 2007 546 555
29. R. Development Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2006 R Foundation for Statistical Computing Vienna, Austria http://www.R-project.org
30. Z. Sawalha, and T. Sayed Transferability of accident prediction models Safety Science 44 3 2006 209 219
31. S.P. Satterthwaite A Survey of Research into Relationships Between Traffic Accidents and Traffic Volumes. Supplementary Report 692 1981 Transport Research Laboratory Crowthorne, UK
32. I. Summersgill, J. Kennedy, and D. Barnes Accidents at 3-Arm Priority Junctions on Urban Single-Carriageway Roads. Report 184 1996 Transport Research Laboratory Crowthorne, UK
33. D.A. Walmsley, I. Summersgill, and C. Binch Accidents on modern rural single-carriageway trunk roads. Report 336 1998 Transport Research Laboratory Crowthorne, UK
34. C. Wang, M.A. Quddus, and S.G. Ison Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: a spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England Accident Analysis & Prevention 41 4 2009 798 808
35. A.G. Wood, L.J. Mountain, R.D. Connors, and M.J. Maher Updating predictive accident models of modern rural single carriageway A-roads Transportation Planning and Technology 36 1 2013 93 108
36. G.R. Wood Confidence and prediction intervals for generalised linear accident models Accident Analysis and Prevention 37 2005 267 273