The Impact of Model Building on the Transmission Dynamics under Vaccination: Observable (Symptom-Based) versus Unobservable (Contagiousness-Dependent) Approaches

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 4, 2013, Pages

  Ejima, Keisuke ^a,b   Aihara, Kazuyuki ^b,c   Nishiura, Hiroshi ^a,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^c INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE   (Japan)

^d JAPAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AGENCY   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

VACCINE;

ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME; ARTICLE; CHICKENPOX; DATA ANALYSIS; DISEASE COURSE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; INCUBATION TIME; INFLUENZA; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MATHEMATICAL PARAMETERS; OBSERVABLE MODEL; RISK REDUCTION; SMALLPOX; SYMPTOMATOLOGY; UNOBSERVABLE MODEL; VACCINATION;

EID: 84876091845     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062062     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Keeling MJ, Rohani P (2007) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. New York: Princeton University Press.
2. Brookmeyer R, Gail MH (1994) AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach. New York: Oxford University Press.
3. Goldstein E, Dushoff J, Ma J, Plotkin JB, Earn DJ, et al. (2009) Reconstructing influenza incidence by deconvolution of daily mortality time series. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106: 21825-21829.
4. Nishiura H, Inaba H, (2011) Estimation of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) among imported cases: addressing censoring using outbreak data at the origin of importation. J Theor Biol 272: 123-130.
5. Nishiura H, Mizumoto K, Ejima K, Zhong Y, Cowling B, et al. (2012) Incubation period as part of the case definition of severe respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus. Euro Surveill 17pii = 20296.
6. Nishiura H, (2007) Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness. Emerg Themes Epidemiol 4: 2.
7. Anderson RM, May RM (1991) Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. New York: Oxford University Press.
8. Inaba H, Nishiura H, (2008) The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model. Math Biosci 216: 77-89.
9. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM, (2004) Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101: 6146-6151.
10. Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y, (2004) Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 159: 623-633.
11. Keyfitz BL, Keyfitz N, (1997) The McKendrick partial differential equation and its uses in epidemiology and population study. Math Comp Modelling 26: 1-9.
12. Basta NE, Halloran ME, Matrajt L, Longini IM Jr, (2008) Estimating influenza vaccine efficacy from challenge and community-based study data. Am J Epidemiol 168: 1343-1352.
13. Halloran ME, Longini IM, Struchiner CJ (2009) Design and Analysis of Vaccine Studies. New York: Springer.
14. Eichner M, Dietz K, (2003) Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak. Am J Epidemiol 158: 110-117.
15. Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, et al. (2009) Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science 324: 1557-1561.
16. Nishiura H, (2010) Correcting the actual reproduction number: a simple method to estimate R(0) from early epidemic growth data. Int J Environ Res Public Health 7: 291-302.
17. Basta NE, Chao DL, Halloran ME, Matrajt L, Longini IM Jr, (2009) Strategies for pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination of schoolchildren in the United States. Am J Epidemiol 170: 679-686.
18. Liao CM, Chen SC, Chang CF, (2008) Modelling respiratory infection control measure effects. Epidemiol Infect 136: 299-308.
19. Nardone A, de Ory F, Carton M, Cohen D, van Damme P, et al. (2007) The comparative sero-epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in 11 countries in the European region. Vaccine 25: 7866-7872.
20. Vázquez M, LaRussa PS, Gershon AA, Steinberg SP, Freudigman K, et al. (2001) The effectiveness of the varicella vaccine in clinical practice. N Engl J Med 344: 955-960.
21. Longini IM Jr, Hudgens MG, Halloran ME, Sagatelian K, (1999) A Markov model for measuring vaccine efficacy for both susceptibility to infection and reduction in infectiousness for prophylactic HIV vaccines. Stat Med 18: 53-68.
22. Brisson M, Edmunds WJ, Gay NJ, (2003) Varicella vaccination: impact of vaccine efficacy on the epidemiology of VZV. J Med Virol 70: S31-S37.
23. Lau LL, Nishiura H, Kelly H, Ip DK, Leung GM, et al. (2012) Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1): a systematic review and meta-analysis. Epidemiology 23: 531-542.
24. Schuette MC, Hethcote HW, (1999) Modeling the effects of varicella vaccination programs on the incidence of chickenpox and shingles. Bull Math Biol 61: 1031-1064.
25. Nishiura H, Eichner M, (2007) Infectiousness of smallpox relative to disease age: estimates based on transmission network and incubation period. Epidemiol Infect 135: 1145-1150.
26. Mizumoto K, Ejima K, Yamamoto T, Nishiura H, (2013) Vaccination and clinical severity: Is the effectiveness of contact tracing and case isolation hampered by past vaccination? Int J Environ Res Public Health 10: 816-829.
27. Nishiura H, Mizumoto K, (2013) Epidemiological determinants of successful vaccine development. Int J Med Sci 10: 382-384.
28. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JAP, Roberts MG, (2010) The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models. J R Soc Interface 7: 873-885.
29. Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, et al. (2009) Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility. BMC Med 7: 45.
30. Eichner M, Schwehm M, Duerr HP, Brockmann SO, (2007) The influenza pandemic preparedness planning tool InfluSim. BMC Infect Dis 7: 17.
31. Arino J, Brauer F, van den Driessche, Watmough J, Wu J, (2006) Simple models for containment of a pandemic. J R Soc Interface 3: 453-457.
32. Arino J, Brauer F, van den Driessche, Watmough J, Wu J, (2007) A final size relation for epidemic models. Math Biosci Eng 4: 159-175.
33. Farrington CP, (2003) On vaccine efficacy and reproduction numbers. Math Biosci 185: 89-109.
34. Hsieh Y-H, Wang Y-S, de Arazoza H, Lounes R, (2010) Modeling secondary level of HIV contact tracing: its impact on HIV intervention in Cuba. BMC Infect Dis 10: 194.
35. Matrajt L, Longini IM, (2012) Critical immune and vaccination thresholds for determining multiple influenza epidemic waves. Epidemics 4: 22-32.
36. Klinkenberg D, Nishiura H, (2011) The correlation between infectivity and incubation period of measles, estimated from households with two cases. J Theor Biol 284: 52-60.
37. Klinkenberg D, Fraser C, Heesterbeek H, (2006) The effectiveness of contact tracing in emerging epidemics. PLoS One 1: e12.
38. Charleston B, Bankowski BM, Gubbins S, Chase-Topping ME, Schley D, et al. (2011) Relationship between clinical signs and transmission of an infectious disease and the implications for control. Science 332: 726-729.
39. Mizumoto K, Nishiura H, Yamamoto T, (2013) Effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis coupled with contact tracing in reducing the transmission of the influenza A (H1N1-2009): A systematic review. Theor Biol Med Model 10: 4.
40. Nishiura H, Yen HL, Cowling BJ, (2013) Sample size considerations for one-to-one animal transmission studies of the influenza A viruses. PLoS ONE 8: e55358.
41. Ejima K, Aihara K, Nishiura H, (2013) Modeling the obesity epidemic: social contagion and its implications for control. Theor Biol Med Model 10: 17.
42. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C, (2011) Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies. PLoS ONE 6: e17908.
43. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C, (2010) Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009. Theor Biol Med Model 7: 1.
44. Omori R, Cowling BJ, Nishiura H, (2012) How is vaccine effectiveness scaled by the transmission dynamics of interacting pathogen strains with cross-protective immunity? PLoS ONE 7: e50751.