A regional response in mean westerly circulation and rainfall to projected climate warming over Tasmania, Australia

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 40, Issue 7-8, 2013, Pages 2035-2048

  Grose, Michael R ^a   Corney, Stuart P ^a   Katzfey, Jack J ^b   Bennett, James C ^c,d   Holz, Gregory K ^a   White, Christopher J ^a,b   Bindoff, Nathaniel L ^a,b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^b Bureau of Meteorology Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^d CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate change; Mean circulation; Rainfall; Regional climate model; Southern hemisphere westerlies; Surface warming

Indexed keywords

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; OCEANIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; RAINFALL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; WARMING; WESTERLY;

AUSTRALIA; TASMANIA;

EID: 84875756695     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1405-1     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Allan RP, Soden BJ (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321: 1481-1484. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1160787.
2. Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrological cycle. Nature 419: 224-232.
3. Bennett JC, Ling FLN, Post DA, Grose MR, Corney SP, Graham B, Holz GK, Katzfey JJ, Bindoff NL (2012) High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16: 1287-1303.
4. Berbery EH, Fox-Rabinovitz MS (2003) Multiscale diagnosis of the North American monsoon system using a variable-resolution GCM. J Clim 16: 1929-1947.
5. Boé J, Terray L (2007) A weather-type approach to analyzing winter precipitation in france: twentieth-century trends and the role of anthropogenic forcing. J Clim 21: 3118-3133.
6. 2. J Clim 16: 1525-1538.
7. Chiew FHS, Kirono DGC, Kent DM, Frost AJ, Charles SP et al (2010) Comparison of runoff modelled using rainfall from different downscaling methods for historical and future climates. J Hydrol 387: 10-23.
8. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
9. Engelbrecht FA, McGregor JL, Engelbrecht CJ (2009) Dynamics of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model projected climate-change signal over southern Africa. Int J Climatol 29: 1013-1033.
10. Fox-Rabinovitz MS, Cote J, Deque M, Dugas B, McGregor JL (2006) Variable-resolution GCMs: stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP). J Geophys Res 111: D16104. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006520.
11. Fox-Rabinovitz MS, Côté J, Dugas B, Déqué M, McGregor JL et al (2008) Stretched-grid model inter-comparison project: decadal regional climate simulations with enhanced variable and uniform-resolution GCMs. Meteor Atmos Phys 100: 159-177.
12. Fyfe JC, Saenko OA (2006) Simulated changes in the extratropical Southern hemisphere winds and currents. Geophys Res Lett 33: L06701.
13. Fyfe JC, Boer GJ, Flato GM (1999) The arctic and antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 26: 1601-1604.
14. Gerber EP, Polvani LM, Ancukiewicz D (2008) Annular mode time scales in the intergovernmental panel on climate change fourth assessment report models. Geophys Res Lett 35: L22707.
15. Grose MR, Barnes-Keoghan I, Corney SP, White CJ, Holz GK et al (2010) Climate futures for Tasmania: general climate impacts. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative research Centre, Hobart.
16. Grose MR, Pook MJ, McIntosh PC, Risbey JS, Bindoff NL (2012) The simulation of cutoff lows in a regional climate model: reliability and future trends. Clim Dyn 38. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-012-1368-2.
17. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Stott PA, Kharin VV (2004) Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes. J Clim 17: 3683-3700.
18. Jones DA, Wang W, Fawcett R (2009) High-quality spatial climate datasets for Australia. Aust Meteorol Oceanog J 58: 233-248.
19. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77: 437-471.
20. Katzfey JJ, McInnes KL (1996) GCM simulations of eastern Australian cutoff lows. J Clim 9: 2337-2355.
21. Katzfey JJ, McGregor JL, Nguyen KC, Thatcher M (2009) Dynamical downscaling TECHNIQUES: Impacts on regional climate change signals. World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, pp 2377-2383.
22. Kendon EJ, Rowell DP, Jones RG (2010) Mechanisms and reliability of future projected changes in daily precipitation. Clim Dyn 35: 489-509.
23. Kidston J, Gerber EP (2010) Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatologies. Geophys Res Lett 37: L09708. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL042873.
24. Kirono DGC, Kent DM (2010) Assessment of rainfall and potential evaporation from global climate models and its implications for Australian regional drought projection. Int J Climatol 31: 1295-1308.
25. Kushner PJ, Held IM, Delworth TL (2001) Southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to global warming. J Clim 14: 2238-2249.
26. Lal M, McGregor JL, Nguyen KC (2008) Very high-resolution climate simulation over Fiji using a global variable-resolution model. Clim Dyn 30: 293-305.
27. Leduc M, Laprise R (2009) Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size. Clim Dyn 32: 833-854.
28. McGregor JL (2005) C-CAM: Geometric aspects and dynamical formulation. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper 43.
29. McGregor JL, Dix MR (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. In: Hamilton K, Ohfuchi W (eds) High resolution simulation of the atmosphere and ocean. Springer, Berlin, pp 51-76.
30. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT et al (2007a) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
31. Meehl GA, Covey AC, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007b) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Met Soc 88: 1383-1394.
32. Meneghini B, Simmonds I, Smith IN (2007) Association between Australian rainfall and the southern annular mode. Int J Climatol 27: 109-121.
33. Nakićenović N, Swart R (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
34. Nguyen KC, McGregor JL (2009) Modelling the Asian summer monsoon using CCAM. Clim Dyn 32: 219-236.
35. Nguyen KC, Katzfey JJ, McGregor JL (2011) Global 60 km simulations with CCAM: evaluation over the tropics. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-011-1197-8.
36. Pall P, Allen MR, Stone DA (2007) Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming. Clim Dyn 28: 351-363.
37. Pook MJ, Risbey J, McIntosh P (2010) East coast lows, atmospheric blocking and rainfall: a Tasmanian perspective. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci 11: 012011.
38. Post DA, Chiew FHS, Teng J, Viney NR, Ling FLN et al (2012) A robust methodology for conducting large-scale assessments of current and future water availability and use: a case study in Tasmania, Australia. J Hydrol 412-413: 233-245.
39. Randall DA, Wood R, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T et al (2007) Climate models and their evaluation. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
40. Reynolds RW (1988) A real-time global sea surface temperature analysis. J Clim 1: 75-86.
41. Risbey JS, Pook MJ, McIntosh PC, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2009) On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Mon Weath Rev 137: 3233-3253.
42. Scaife AA, Woollings T, Knight J, Martin G, Hinton T (2010) Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models. J Clim 23: 6143-6152.
43. Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ (2010) Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth-Sci Rev 99: 125-161.
44. Simmonds I, Hope P (1998) Seasonal and regional responses to changes in Australian soil moisture conditions. Int J Climatol 10: 1105-1139.
45. Smith I, Chandler E (2009) Refining rainfall projections for the Murray Darling Basin of south-east Australia-the effect of sampling model results based on performance. Clim Change 102: 377-393.
46. Thatcher M, McGregor JL (2008) Using a scale-selective filter for dynamical downscaling with the conformal cubic atmospheric model. Mon Weather Rev 137: 1742-1752.
47. Thatcher M, McGregor JL (2011) A technique for dynamically downscaling daily-averaged GCM datasets using the conformal cubic atmospheric model. Mon Weath Rev 139: 79-95.
48. van Ulden AP, van Oldenborgh GJ (2006) Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe. Atmos Chem Phys 6: 863-881.
49. Watterson IG (2008) Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming. J Geophys Res Atmos 113: D12106.
50. Watterson IG, McGregor JL, Nguyen KC (2008) Changes in extreme temperatures of Australasian summer simulated by CCAM under global warming, and the roles of winds and land-sea contrasts. Aust Meteorol Mag 57: 195-212.
51. Whetton PH, Katzfey JJ, Hennessy KJ, Wu X, McGregor JL, Nguyen KC (2001) Developing scenarios of climate change for Southeastern Australia: an example using regional climate model output. Clim Res 16: 181-201.
52. Whetton PH, Macadam I, Bathols J, O'Grady J (2007) Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models. Geophys Res Lett 34: L14701.
53. Yin JH (2005) A consistent poleward shift of storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys Res Lett 32: L18701.