Foreseeing the unforeseeable

Journal of Democracy

Volumn 24, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 20-25

  Nathan, Andrew J ^a  

^a Columbia University ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84875754091     PISSN: 10455736     EISSN: 10863214     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2013.0012     Document Type: Article

References (9)

1. For another excellent analysis along such lines, see Yu Liu and Dingding Chen, "Why China Will Democratize, " Washington Quarterly 35 (Winter 2012): 41-63.
2. Seminal statements are Mark Granovetter, "Threshold Models of Collective Behavior, " American Journal of Sociology 83 (May 1978): 1420-43
3. Timur Kuran, "Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989, " World Politics 44 (October 1991): 7-48
4. Susanne Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989-91, " World Politics 47 (October 1994): 42-101.
5. Kuran, "Now Out of Never, " 13.
6. On this point, among many sources, see Cheng Li, "The End of the CCP's Resilient Authoritarianism? A Tripartite Assessment of Shifting Power in China, " China Quarterly 211 (September 2012): 599-602.
7. Jean-Philippe Béja, Fu Hualing, and Eva Pils, eds., Liu Xiaobo, Charter 08, and the Challenges of Political Reform in China (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, 2012).
8. Xu Youyu and Hua Ze, eds., Caoyu jingcha [Close encounters with the Chinese PSB (Public Security Bureau)] (Hong Kong: Kaifang chubanshe, 2012).
9. Andrew Wedeman, Double Paradox: Rapid Growth and Rising Corruption in China (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2012).