Why China Will Democratize

Washington Quarterly

Volumn 35, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 41-63

  Liu, Yu ^a   Chen, Dingding ^b  

^a TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MACAU   (Macao)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84863272975     PISSN: 0163660X     EISSN: 15309177     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2012.641918     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Columbia University Professor Andrew Nathan invented the phrase "authoritarian resilience" to describe post-Deng China, suggesting that the Party state is resilient enough to adapt to changing circumstances. Claremont McKenna Professor Pei Minxin used the phrase "illiberal adaption" to make a similar observation. University of California at Berkeley Professor Kevin O'Brien and University of Hong Kong Professor Li Lianjiang used "rightful resistance" to describe the popular protests in China in which protestors resort to official discourse to make their case.
2. For example, see Dwight Perkins and Thomas Rawski, "Forecasting China's Economic Growth to 2025," in China's Great Economic Transformation, eds. Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski (Cambridge University Press, 2008).
3. See Henry Rowen, "When Will the Chinese People Be Free?" Journal of Democracy 18, no. 3 (July 2007): p. 39.
4. Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave (University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 63. On the other hand, the concrete demarcation of the "middle zone" might require more careful studies.
5. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, The 1990 CIA World Factbook, 1990.
6. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011.
7. Official inflation data are widely disbelieved because of the formula used to calculate them. However, even the official numbers are telling: the rise of the monthly Consumer Price Index accelerated in 2010, reaching 4.4 percent in October, the highest level in two years. Experts estimate that it will reach five percent throughout 2011. See "Liu Yuhui: Weiyou cipo zichan paomo caineng gengzhi tongzhang" (Liu Yuhui: Only piercing the bubble of assets can cure the inflation), http://finance.ifeng.com/news/special/shuruxingtongzhang/20101130/2976687.shtml.
8. The survey was organized by a website called "field of finance," and the question was: "The CPI reached 4.4 percent in October, the highest level in two years; do you feel the pressure of inflation?", http://survey.jrj.com.cn/result/vote_result.jsp?questionnaireId=819.
9. Ministry of Finance, "Woguo meinian gongkuan xiaofei jin 9000 yi de shuofa bushi" (The statement that officials' consumption reaches 900 million RMB is not true), http://news.qq.com/a/20060419/001054.htm.
10. Ministry of Finance, "Woguo meinian gongkuan xiaofei jin 9000 yi de shuofa bushi" (The statement that officials' consumption reaches 900 million RMB is not true), http://news.qq.com/a/20060419/001054.htm.
11. Jack Anderson, "2009 Tax Misery & Reform Index," Forbes, April 13, 2009, http://www.forbes.com/global/2009/0413/034-tax-misery-reform-index.html.
12. "Zhongguo shuifu shijie di'er shuofa bushi" (The statement that China's tax burden ranks second in the world is not true), People's Daily, http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2011-09/19/c_122051304.htm.
13. Ministry of Finance, "Qian jiugeyue quanguo wancheng fangchanshui 798.59 yiyuan" (79.859 billion RMB property tax was raised nationally in the first nine months), http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20111020/103910656733.shtml.
14. Wang Changyong, "10.7 wanyi difang zhengfu zhaiwu shigao shidi" (10.7 trillion local government debt: is it high or low), http://www.caing.com/2011-06-27/100273555.html.
15. This is a quote from Justin Lin, the chief economist of the World Bank, in a talk he gave: http://en.ccer.edu.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=6791.
16. Wang Xiaolu, "Zaisuan Huise Shouru" (Recalculating the gray income), http://magazine.caing.com/2010-07-18/100161844.html. His study shows that "gray income" in China reached 5.4 trillion RMB in 2008, and the top 10 percent of families earn 65 times of what the bottom 10 percent earn (official data suggest the figure is only 23 times).
17. Yang Yao, "A Chinese Way of Democratization?" http://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/develo/2039.html.
18. "Shan'xi jumin shida yuanwang zuori gongbu" (Ten top wishes of the Shan'xi residents was published yesterday), http://news.cnwest.com/content/201003/31/content_ 2915240.htm.
19. See Martin Whyte, Myth of the Social Volcano (Stanford University Press, 2010).
20. He Ruili, "Zhongguo pinfu chaju wenti shehui diaocha fenxi baogao" (An investigative report on the wealth gap in China), http://www.chinavalue.net/Finance/Article/2006-10-11/45553.html.
21. Joel Johnson, "1 Million Workers. 90 Million iPhones. 17 Suicides. Who's to Blame?" Wired, February 28, 2011, http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/02/ff_joelinchina/.
22. Yasheng Huang, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics (Cambridge University Press, 2008).
23. "Jinnian chengxiang shouru chaju yuji kuoda" (The income gap between urban and rural residents is expected to grow this year), http://business.sohu.com/20100421/n271642438.shtml.
24. Bruce Dickson, Red Capitalists in China (Cambridge University Press, 2003).
25. See Eva Bellin, "Contingent Democrats: Industrialists, Labor, and Democratization in Late-Developing Countries," World Politics 52, no. 2 (January 2000).
26. Yun-Han Chu et al., eds., How East Asians View Democracy (Columbia University Press, 2008): p. 229.
27. As noted in the first endnote, Professor Kevin O'Brien and Li Lianjiang argued that the protesters in China often seek to ally with the central government to fight against local governments. See Kevin O'Brien and Li Lianjiang, Rightful Resistance in Rural China (Cambridge University Press, 2006).Note
28. Yun-Hal Chu et al., eds., How East Asians View Democracy, p. 219.
29. Tianjian Shi and Jie Lu, "Different Understandings of Democracy: Liberal Democracy and an Alternative," unpublished manuscript.
30. Zhengxu Wang, "Generational Shift and Its Impacts on Regime Legitimacy in China," The University of Nottingham-China Policy Institute, June 2010, http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cpi/documents/discussion-papers/discussion-paper-64-regime-legitimacy.pdf.
31. Tianjian Shi and Jie Lu, "Different Understandings of Democracy: Liberal Democracy and an Alternative."
32. "China's Spending on Internal Policing Outstrips Defense Budget," Bloomberg Businessweek, March 6, 2011, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03-06/china-s-spending-on-internal-policing-outstrips-defense-budget.html.
33. Gao Bingzhong et al., eds., Zhongguo Gongmin Shehui Fazhan Lanpishu (The Bluebook on the Development of Civil Society in China) (Beijing University Press, 2008), p. 11. The huge discrepancy between the official number and the "real" number is due to the difficult registration system the government sets for NGOs.
34. The data come from a report produced by the Department of Sociology of Tsinghua University titled "Yi liyi biaoda zhidu shixian changzhijiu'an" (To achieve sustainable stability through institutions of interests expression), http://www.aisixiang.com/data/33573.html.
35. Yu Jianrong, "Yali Weiwen de zhengzhixue fenxi" (Political analysis of maintaining stability through pressure), Zhanlue yu Guanli (Strategy and Management), no. 7/8, 2010.
36. Junhan Lee, "Primary Causes of Asian Democratization: Dispelling Conventional Myths," Asian Survey 42, no. 6 (November/December 2002).
37. See Han Han's blog at http://blog.sina.com.cn/twocold.
38. "Zhongguo wangmin shuliang da 4.85 yi" (The number of China's netizens has reached 485 million), http://news.youth.cn/rd/201107/t20110719_1668071.htm.
39. See Robert D. Putnam, Making Democracy Work (Princeton University Press, 1994).
40. Zheng Gongcheng, "Zhongguo shehui gongping zhuankuai fenxi" (An Analysis of Social Equity in China), Journal of Renmin University of China, no. 2 (2009): pp. 2-11.
41. See John L. Thornton, "Long Time Coming: The Prospects for Democracy in China," Foreign Affairs 87, no. 1 (January/February 2008): p. 4.
42. See http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/detail_2010_10/05/2704767_0.shtml.
43. See http://politics.caijing.com.cn/2011-09-14/110859487.html.
44. Andrew Jacobs, "A Chinese Official Praises a Taboo: Democracy," New York Times, July 23, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/24/world/asia/24beijing.html. Also, see http://www.chinaelections.org/NewsInfo.asp?NewsID=110108.
45. Professor Wang Changjiang Of the Central Party School is one strong supporter of this view. See http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2008-06/24/content_8428025.htm.
46. The official explanation of "scientific development" is very inclusive, ranging from political development to economic development to cultural development. It also means harmonious social relations, sustainable development, social equality, and institutional reform. The interpretation is so broad that it does not have a practical meaning anymore.Note
47. See http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64093/95111/13161148.html.
48. Human rights lawyers and activists, such as Xu Zhiyong, Teng Biao, Ran Yunfei, Chen Guangcheng, Hu Jia, Ai Weiwei, and Tan Zuoren, have been under attack in recent years.
49. Different local governments use different methods to stop independent candidates from running. Some measures are relatively "polite," such as removing the posters of the candidate or disqualifying candidates by adding tailored specifications. Some, however, use direct threats, including beatings.Note.
50. Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions From Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).
51. Cheng Li, "China in the Year 2020: Three Political Scenarios," Asia Policy, no. 4 (July 2007): pp. 17-29.
52. See Barry Naughton, "China's Left Tilt: Pendulum Swing or Midcourse Correction?" in China's Changing Political Landscape: Prospects for Democracy, ed. Cheng Li (Brookings Institution Press, 2008), pp. 142-160.
53. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Cambridge University Press, 2006).
54. See Chapter 9 of Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel, Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy (Cambridge University Press, 2005).
55. Leonardo Morlino and Wojciech Sadurski, Democratization and the European Union: Comparing Central and Eastern European Post-Communist Countries (Routledge, 2010).
56. Arch Puddington, "Freedom in the World 2010: Erosion of Freedom Intensifies," Freedom House, http://www.freedomhouse.org/uploads/fiw10/FIW_2010_Overview_Essay.pdf. The Polity IV project, which uses different measures, classified 92 countries as democracies in 2009.
57. See Monty G., Marshall A and Benjamin R., Cole S. "Global Report 2009: Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility," Center for Systemic Peace, December 7, 2009, p. 11, http://www.systemicpeace.org/Global%20Report%202009.pdf.
58. Steven Lee Myers and Thomas Fuller, "Detecting a Thaw in Myanmar, U.S. Aims to Encourage Change," New York Times, October 6, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/ 10/07/world/asia/united-states-aims-to-encourage-change-in-myanmar.html?_r=1.
59. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Michael D. Ward, "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization 60 (2006): pp. 911-933;
60. Daniel Brinks and Michael Coppedge, "Diffusion is no illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy," Comparative Political Studies 39, no. 4 (2006): pp. 463-489.
61. See Yang Yao, "The End of the Beijing Consensus," Foreign Affairs, February 2, 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65947/the-end-of-the-beijing-consensus.
62. See Ruth Kricheli, "Rewarding Illiberal Elections? Electoral Autocracies and the International Community," Working Paper, Department of Political Science, Stanford University (2009).
63. For more about the capital mobility mechanism of democratization, see Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution (Cambridge University Press, 2003).
64. Jon C. Pevehouse, "Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization," International Organization 56, no. 3 (Summer 2002): pp. 515-549.
65. See "Global Views of United States Improve While Other Countries Decline," BBC World Service Poll, April 18, 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/170610_bbcpoll.pdf.
66. Gleditsch and Ward, "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization."
67. Helen V. Milner and Bumba Mukherjee, "Democratization and Economic Globalization," Annual Review of Political Science 12 (2009): pp. 163-181.
68. "Transcript of President Ma's Associated Press interview," October 19, 2010, http://english.president.gov.tw/Default.aspx?tabid=491&itemid=22582&rmid=2355.
69. See Michael W Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review 80, no. 4 (December 1986): pp. 1151-1169
70. James Lee Ray, Does Democracy Cause Peace?" Annual Review of Political Science 1(1998): pp. 27-46;
71. Bruce M. Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton University Press, 1993).