Temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in China, 1961-2009

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 487, Issue , 2013, Pages 48-59

  Fu, Guobin ^a   Yu, Jingjie ^b   Yu, Xiubo ^b   Ouyang, Rulin ^b   Zhang, Yichi ^b   Wang, Ping ^b   Liu, Wenbin ^b,c   Min, Leilei ^b,c  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH   (China)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

Author keywords

China; Climate change and variability; Extreme precipitation index; Kendall trend testing; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; Southern Oscillation Index

Indexed keywords

CHINA; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX; TREND TESTING;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; GLOBAL WARMING; STREAM FLOW;

PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

DATA SET; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GLOBAL WARMING; METEOROLOGY; MONSOON; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; RAINFALL; RECURRENCE INTERVAL; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TIME SERIES; WIND-DRIVEN CIRCULATION;

CHINA; NEI MONGGOL; QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU; YANGTZE BASIN;

EID: 84875656061     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.021     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Biondi F., Gershunov A., Cayan D.R. North pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. J. Climate 2001, 14:5-10.
2. BoM (Bureau of Meteorology), 2010. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). <> (accessed 10.08.10). http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml.
3. Changnon S.A., Kunkel K.E. Climate-related fluctuations in Midwestern flooding. J. Water Resour. Planning Manage. 1995, 121:326-334.
4. Chen H.P., Sun J.Q., Chen X.L., Zhou W. CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China. Int. J. Climatol. 2012, 32:441-450.
5. Dai X.G., Li W.H., Ma Z.G., Wang P. Water-vapor source shift of Xinjiang region during the recent twenty years. Prog. Nat. Sci. 2007, 17(5):569-575.
6. Deser C., Wallace J.M. El Niño events and their relation to the Southern Oscillation, 1925-1986. J. Geophys. Res. 1987, 92:14189-14196.
7. Diaz, H.F., Markgraf, V., (Eds.), 2000. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, Multiscale Variability, Global and Regional Impacts. Cambridge University Press, 499pp.
8. Ding Y.H. Monsoons Over China 1994, Springer, New York, pp. 419.
9. Domros M., Peng G. The Climate of China 1988, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
10. Douglas E.M., Barros A.P. Probable maximum precipitation estimation using multifractals, applications to the eastern United States. J. Hydrometeor. 2003, 4:1012-1024.
11. Endo N., Ailikun B., Yasunari T. Trends in precipitation amounts and the number of rainy days and heavy rainfall events during summer in China from 1961 to 2000. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 2005, 83:621-631.
12. Feng S., Nadarajah S., Hu Q. Modeling annual extreme precipitation in China using the generalized extreme value distribution. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 2007, 85:599-613.
13. Feng J., Chen W., Tam C.Y., Zhou W. Different impacts of El Niño and El Niño Modoki on China rainfall in the decaying phases. Int. J. Climatol. 2011, 31:2091-2101.
14. Fu G.B., Chen S.L., Liu C.M., Shepard D. Hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow River basin for the last 50 years. Climatic Change 2004, 65:149-178.
15. Fu G.B., Charles S.P., Viney N.R., Chen S.L., Wu J.Q. Impacts of climate variability on streamflow in the Yellow River. Hydrol. Process. 2007, 21:3431-3439.
16. Fu G.B., Charles S.P., Yu J.J., Liu C.M. Decadal climatic variability, trends and future scenarios for the North China Plain. J. Climate 2009, 22:2111-2123.
17. Fu G.B., Viney N.R., Charles S.P., Liu J.R. Long-term temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in Australia, 1910-2006. J. Hydrometeor. 2010, 11:951-966. 10.1175/2010JHM1204.1.
18. Fu G.B., Yu J.J., Zhang Y.C., Hu S.S., Ouyang R.L., Liu W.B. Temporal variation of wind speed in China for 1961-2007. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2011, 104:313-324. 10.1007/s00704-010-0348-x.
19. Gan T.Y. Hydroclimatic trends and possible climatic warming in the Canadian Prairies. Water Resour. Res. 1998, 34:3009-3015.
20. Hirsch R.M., Slack J.R., Smith R.A. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour. Res. 1982, 18:107-121.
21. IPCC, 2007a. Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Millers, H.L. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 996.
22. IPCC, 2007b. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E. (Eds.), Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 976.
23. Jones R.H., Westra S., Sharma Observed relationships between extreme sub-daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2010, 37:L22805. 10.1029/2010GL045081.
24. Kendall M.G. Rank Correlation Methods 1975, Charles Griffin, London, pp. 45.
25. Kunkel K.E., Andsager K., Easterling D.R. Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada. J. Climate 1999, 12:2515-2527.
26. Kunkel K.E., Andsager K., Liang X.Z., Arritt R.W., Takle E.S., Gutowski W.J., Pan Z.T. Observations and regional climate model simulations of heavy precipitation events and seasonal anomalies, a comparison. J. Hydrometeor. 2002, 3:322-334.
27. Kunkel K.E., Easterling D.R., Redmond K., Hubbard K. Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States, 1895-2000. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2003, 30(17):1900. 10.1029/2003GL018052.
28. Liu Y.X., Guo Y.F. Impact of pressure system anomaly over mid-high latitude on the interdecadal change of East Asian summer monsoon. Plateau Meteor. 2005, 24:129-135. (in Chinese).
29. Liu C.M., Yu J.J., Kendy E. Groundwater exploitation and its impacts on the environment in the North China Plain. Water Int. 2001, 26:265-272.
30. Liu B., Xu M., Henderson M., Qi Y., Li Y. Taking China's temperature, Daily range, warming trends, and regional variations, 1955-2000. J. Clim. 2004, 17:4453-4462.
31. Liu, H.B., Zhang, D.L., Wang, B., 2008. Daily to submonthly weather and climate characteristics of the summer 1998 extreme rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin. J. Geophy. Res.-Atmosph., vol. 113, pp. D22101. doi: 10.1029/2008JD010072.
32. Mantua N.J., Hare S.R., Zhang Y., Wallace J.M., Francis R.C. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 1997, 78:1069-1079.
33. Marengo J.A., Rusticucci M., Penalba O., Renom M. An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century. Part 2: Historical trends. Climatic Change 2010, 98:509-529.
34. Ni, J., 2009. Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on China's Water Cycle, An Ecosystem Model-based Assessment of Regional Differences. <> (accessed 10.08.10). http://epic.awi.de/Publications/Nix2009a.pdf.
35. Penalba O.C., Robledo F.A. Spatial and temporal variability of the frequency of extreme daily rainfall regime in the La Plata Basin during the 20th century. Climatic Change 2010, 98:531-550.
36. Qian W.H., Fu J.K., Yan Z.W. Decrease of light rain events in summer associated with a warming environment in China during, 1961-2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2007, 34:L11705. 10.1029/2007GL029631.
37. Qin N.X., Chen X., Fu G.B., Zhai J.Q., Xue X.W. Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China, 1960-2007. Hydrol. Process. 2010, 24:3733-3744. 10.1002/hyp. 7792.
38. Re M., Barros V.R. Extreme rainfalls in SE South America. Climatic Change 2009, 96:119-136.
39. Ropelewski C.F., Jones P.D. An extension of the tahiti-darwin Southern Oscillation index. Mon. Weather Rev. 1987, 115:2161-2165.
40. Sen P.K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau. J. Am. Stat. Associat. 1968, 63:1379-1389.
41. Su B., Gemmer M., Jiang T. Spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin. Quatern. Int. 2008, 186:22-31.
42. Sun X., Barros A.P. An evaluation of the statistics of rainfall extremes in raingauge observations, satellite-based and reanalysis products using Universal Multifractals. J. Hydrometeor. 2010, 11:388-404. 10.1175/2009JHM1142.1.
43. Suppiah R., Hennessy K.J. Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events and number of dry days in Australia, 1910-1990. Int. J. Climatol. 1998, 10:1141-1164.
44. Torrence C., Webster P. Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system. J. Climate 1999, 12:2679-2690.
45. Trenberth K.E. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Res. 2011, 47:123-138.
46. Trenberth K.E., Hoar T.J. The 1990-1995 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event longest on record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 1996, 23:57-60.
47. Varis O., Vakkilainen P. China's 8 challenges to water resources management in the first quarter of the 21st Century. Geomorphology 2001, 41(2-3):93-104.
48. Wang Y.Q., Zhou L. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during, 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32:L09707. 10.1029/2005GL022574.
49. Wang W., Chen X., Shi P., van Gelder P.H.A.J.M. Detecting changes in extreme precipitation and extreme streamflow in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2008, 12:207-221.
50. Wei F.Y., Zhang T. Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background. Science China - Earth. Sciences 2010, 53:301-316.
51. Westra S., Evans J.P., Mehrotra R., Sharma A. A conditional disaggregation algorithm for generating fine time-scale rainfall data in a warmer climate. J. Hydrol. 2013, 479:86-99.
52. Xia J., Zhang L., Liu C.M., Yu J.J. Towards better water security in North China. Water Resour. Manage. 2007, 21:233-247.
53. Xu M., Chang C.P., Fu C., Qi Y., Robock A., Robinson D., Zhang H. Steady decline of East Asian Monsoon winds, 1969-2000, evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D24111. 10.1029/2006JD007337.
54. Xu C.C., Chen Y.N., Li W.H., Chen Y.P., Ge H.T. Potential impact of climate change on snow cover area in the Tarim River basin. Environ. Geol. 2008, 53:1465-1474.
55. Xu Z.X., Liu Z.F., Fu G.B., Chen Y.N. Hydro-climate trends of the Tarim River Basin for the last 50 years. J. Arid Environ. 2010, 74:256-267.
56. Xue F., Liu C.Z. The influence of moderate ENSO on summer rainfall in eastern China and its comparison with strong ENSO. Chinese Sci. Bull. 2008, 53:791-800.
57. Yang X.Q., Xie Q., Zhu Y.M., Sun X.Q., Guo Y.J. Decadal-to-interdecadal variability of precipitation in North China and associated atmospheric and oceanic anomaly patterns. Chinese J. Geophys. 2005, 48:789-797. (in Chinese).
58. You Ch., Lee D.I., Jang S.M., Jang M., Uyeda U., Shinoda Y., Kobayashi F. Characteristics of rainfall systems accompanied with Changma front at Chujado in Korea. ASIA-Pacific J. Atmosph. Sci. 2010, 46:41-51.
59. Yue S., Pilon P., Cavadias Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J. Hydrol. 2002, 259:254-271.
60. Zhai P.M., Sun A.J., Ren F.M., Liu X.N., Gao B., Zhang Q. Changes of climate extremes in China. Climatic Change 1999, 42(1):203-218.
61. Zhai P.M., Zhang X.B., Wan H., Pan X.H. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J. Clim. 2005, 18:1096-1108.
62. Zhang Y., Wallace J.M., Battisti D.S. ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability, 1900-1993. J. Clim. 1997, 10:1004-1020.
63. Zhang Q.Y., Wei J., Tao S.Y. The decadal and interannual variations of drought in the Northern China and association with the circulations. Climatic Environ. Res. 2003, 8:307-318. (in Chinese).
64. Zhang D.Q., Feng G.L., Hu J.G. Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years. Chin. Phys. B 2008, 17:736-742.
65. Zhang Q., Xu C.Y., Zhang Z., Chen Y.D., Liu C.L. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960-2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation. J. Hydrol. 2008, 353:215-227.
66. Zhang Q., Xu C.Y., Chen X., Zhang Z. Statistical behaviors of precipitation regimes in China and their links with atmospheric circulation 1960-2005. Int. J. Climatol. 2011, 31:1665-1678.
67. Zhang Q., Singh V.P., Li J.F., Chen X.H. Analysis of the periods of maximum consecutive wet days in China. J. Geophys. Res. 2011, 116:D23106. 10.1029/2011JD016088.
68. Zheng H.X., Liu C.M. The changes of annual cycle of streamflow for the upper Yellow River. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 2003, 22:586-590. (in Chinese).
69. Zhou L.T., Huang R.H. Interdecadal variability of summer rainfall in Northwest China and its possible causes. Int. J. Climatol. 2010, 30:549-557.