Migration tendency delays distributional response to differential survival prospects along a flyway

American Naturalist

Volumn 181, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 520-531

  Lok, Tamar ^a,b   Overdijk, Otto ^c   Piersma, Theunis ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GRONINGEN   (Netherlands)

^b ROYAL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR SEA RESEARCH   (Netherlands)

^c Werkgroep Lepelaar ^*  (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Climate change; Density dependence; Habitat change; Longdistance migration; Multievent mark recapture modeling; Winter site choice

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; HABITAT QUALITY; MARK-RECAPTURE METHOD; MIGRATION; MIGRATORY BEHAVIOR; MIGRATORY POPULATION; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION GROWTH; POPULATION SIZE; SITE SELECTION; SURVIVAL; WADER;

AFRICA; ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEMOGRAPHY; EUROPE; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION MIGRATION; SEASON;

AFRICA; ANIMAL MIGRATION; ANIMALS; BIRDS; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEMOGRAPHY; EUROPE; SEASONS;

EURASIA; NETHERLANDS;

ANIMALIA; AVES; PLATALEA LEUCORODIA; PLATALEA LEUCORODIA LEUCORODIA; THRESKIORNITHIDAE;

EID: 84875498656     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/669679     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Alerstam, T. 1990. Bird migration. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
2. Alves, J. A., T. G. Gunnarsson, P. M. Potts, G. Gelinaud, W. J. Sutherland, and J. A. Gill. 2012. Overtaking on migration: does longer distance migration always incur a penalty? Oikos 121:464-470.
3. Begon, M., C. R. Townshend, and J. L. Harper. 2006. Ecology: from individuals to ecosystems. Blackwell, Oxford.
4. Both, C. 2010. Flexibility of timing of avian migration to climate change masked by environmental constraints en route. Current Biology 20:243-248.
5. Both, C., and M. E. Visser. 2001. Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature 411:296-298.
6. Brown, J. L. 1969. Territorial behavior and population regulation in birds. Wilson Bulletin 81:293-329.
7. Burnham, K., and D. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer, New York.
8. Choquet, R., L. Rouan, and R. Pradel. 2009. Program E-SURGE: a software application for fitting multievent models. Pages 845-865 in D. L. Thomson, E. G. Cooch, and M. J. Conroy, eds. Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York.
9. Cox, C. 1998. Delta method. Pages 1125-1127 in P. Armitage and T. Coulton, eds. Encyclopedia of biostatistics. Wiley, Chichester.
10. Cramp, S., and K. E. L. Simmons, eds. 1977. Handbook of the birds of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa: the birds of the Western Palearctic. Vol. 1. Ostrich to ducks. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
11. de le Court, C., and E. Aguilera. 1997. Dispersal and migration in Eurasian spoonbills Platalea leucorodia. Ardea 85:193-202.
12. Donald, P. F., F. J. Sanderson, I. J. Burfield, S. M. Bierman, R. D. Gregory, and Z. Waliczky. 2007. International conservation policy delivers benefits for birds in Europe. Science 317:810-813.
13. Ferrer, M., and J. A. Donazar. 1996. Density-dependent fecundity by habitat heterogeneity in an increasing population of Spanish imperial eagles. Ecology 77:69-74.
14. Fretwell, S. D., and H. L. Lucas. 1970. On territorial behavior and other factors influencing habitat distribution in birds. Acta Biotheoretica 19:16-36.
15. Gill, J. A., K. Norris, P. M. Potts, T. G. Gunnarsson, P. W. Atkinson, and W. J. Sutherland. 2001. The buffer effect and large-scale population regulation in migratory birds. Nature 412:436-438.
16. Gunnarsson, T. G., J. A. Gill, J. Newton, P. M. Potts, and W. J. Sutherland. 2005a. Seasonal matching of habitat quality and fitness in a migratory bird. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 272:2319-2323.
17. Gunnarsson, T. G., J. A. Gill, A. Petersen, G. F. Appleton, and W. J. Sutherland. 2005b. A double buffer effect in a migratory shorebird population. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:965-971.
18. Holbrook, S. J., and R. J. Schmitt. 2002. Competition for shelter space causes density-dependent predation mortality in damselfishes. Ecology 83:2855-2868.
19. Hu, J. H., H. J. Hu, and Z. G. Jiang. 2010. The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird. Oecologia (Berlin) 164:555-565.
20. Kluyver, H. N., and L. Tinbergen. 1953. Territory and the regulation of density in titmice. Archives Néerlandaises de Zoologie 10:266-287.
21. Latta, S. C., and J. Faaborg. 2002. Demographic and population responses of Cape May warblers wintering in multiple habitats. Ecology 83:2502-2515.
22. Lebreton, J. D., K. P. Burnham, J. Clobert, and D. R. Anderson. 1992. Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: a unified approach with case studies. Ecological Monographs 62:67-118.
23. Leyrer, J., T. Lok, M. Brugge, A. Dekinga, B. Spaans, J. A. van Gils, B. K. Sandercock, et al. 2012. Small-scale demographic structure suggests preemptive behavior in a flocking shorebird. Behavioral Ecology 23:1226-1233, doi:10.1093/beheco/ars106.
24. Lindberg, M. S., D. H. Ward, T. L. Tibbitts, and J. Roser. 2007. Winter movement dynamics of black brant. Journal of Wildlife Management 71:534-540.
25. Lok, T., O. Overdijk, H. Horn, and T. Piersma. 2009. The spoonbill Platalea leucorodia population of the Wadden Sea islands: does population growth level off? Limosa 82:149-157.
26. Lok, T., O. Overdijk, J. M. Tinbergen, and T. Piersma. 2011. The paradox of spoonbill migration: most birds travel to where survival rates are lowest. Animal Behaviour 82:837-844.
27. Lundberg, S., and T. Alerstam. 1986. Bird migration patterns: conditions for stable geographical population segregation. Journal of Theoretical Biology 123:403-414.
28. Morris, D. W. 1989. Density-dependent habitat selection: testing the theory with fitness data. Evolutionary Ecology 3:80-94.
29. Morris, D. W. 1991. Fitness and patch selection by white-footed mice. American Naturalist 138:702-716.
30. Navedo, J. G. 2008. Different stopover timing in juvenile and adult spoonbills during southward migration. Pages 2-5 in P. Triplet, O. Overdijk, and M. Smart, eds. Eurosite SpoonbillWorkingGroup Newsletter. Eurosite, http://www.eurosite.org/files/SPOONBILL _NEWSLETTER_6.pdf
31. Nevoux, M., O. Gimenez, D. Arlt, M. Nicoll, C. Jones, and K. Norris. 2011. Population regulation of territorial species: both site dependence and interference mechanisms matter. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 278:2173-2181.
32. Newton, I. 2008. The migration ecology of birds. Elsevier, Oxford.
33. Novo, F. G., and C. M. Cabrera. 2006. Doñana: water and biosphere. Spanish Ministry of the Environment, Madrid.
34. Piersma, T. 2011. Flyway evolution is too fast to be explained by the modern synthesis: proposals for an "extended" evolutionary research agenda. Journal of Ornithology 152(suppl. 1):S151-S159.
35. Pradel, R. 2005. Multievent: an extension of multistate capturerecapture models to uncertain states. Biometrics 61:442-447.
36. Pradel, R. 2009. The stakes of capture-recapture models with state uncertainty. Pages 781-795 in D. L. Thomson, E. G. Cooch, and M. J. Conroy, eds. Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York.
37. Pulido, F., and P. Berthold. 2010. Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 107:7341-7346.
38. Pulliam, H. R., and B. J. Danielson. 1991. Sources, sinks, and habitat selection: a landscape perspective on population dynamics. American Naturalist 137(suppl.):S50-S66.
39. Quaintenne, G., J. A. van Gils, P. Bocher, A. Dekinga, and T. Piersma. 2011. Scaling up ideals to freedom: are densities of red knots across western Europe consistent with ideal free distribution? Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 278:2728-2736.
40. Robertson, G., and F. Cooke. 1999. Winter philopatry in migratory waterfowl. Auk 116:20-34.
41. Rodenhouse, N. L., T. W. Sherry, and R. T. Holmes. 1997. Sitedependent regulation of population size: a new synthesis. Ecology 78:2025-2042.
42. Rodenhouse, N. L., T. S. Sillett, P. J. Doran, and R. T. Holmes. 2003. Multiple density-dependence mechanisms regulate a migratory bird population during the breeding season. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 270:2105-2110.
43. Studds, C. E., and P. P. Marra. 2005. Nonbreeding habitat occupancy and population processes: an upgrade experiment with a migratory bird. Ecology 86:2380-2385.
44. Sutherland, W. J. 1998. Evidence for flexibility and constraint in migration systems. Journal of Avian Biology 29:441-446.
45. Tank, A., J. B. Wijngaard, G. P. Konnen, R. Bohm, G. Demaree, A. Gocheva, M. Mileta, et al. 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. International Journal of Climatology 22: 1441-1453.
46. van Gils, J. A., T. Piersma, A. Dekinga, B. Spaans, and C. Kraan. 2006. Shellfish dredging pushes a flexible avian top predator out of a marine protected area. PLoS Biology 4:2399-2404.
47. Visser, M. E., A. C. Perdeck, J. H. van Balen, and C. Both. 2009. Climate change leads to decreasing bird migration distances. Global Change Biology 15:1859-1865.
48. White, G. C., and K. P. Burnham. 1999. Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study 46: S120-S139.
49. Williams, C. K., M. D. Samuel, V. V. Baranyuk, E. G. Cooch, and D. Kraege. 2008. Winter fidelity and apparent survival of lesser snow goose populations in the Pacific Flyway. Journal of Wildlife Management 72:159-167.