Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments

Climatic Change

Volumn 117, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 585-597

  Lenton, Timothy M ^a   Ciscar, Juan Carlos ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^b JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT; CLIMATE IMPACTS; ECONOMIC GROWTHS; ECONOMIC IMPACTS; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS; NATURAL SCIENTISTS; SOCIAL COST OF CARBON; SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS;

DISASTERS; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; ECONOMICS; GLOBAL WARMING;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; ECONOMIC GROWTH; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; GLOBAL WARMING; INTEGRATED APPROACH; SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS;

EID: 84874945611     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0572-8     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Arnell N, Tompkins E, Adger N, Delaney K (2005) 'Vulnerability to abrupt climate change in Europe', Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
2. Bamber JL, Riva REM, Vermeersen BLA, LeBrocq AM (2009) Reassessment of the potential Sea-level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice sheet. Science 324: 901-903.
3. Ciscar JC, Szabó L, van Regemorter D, Soria A (2011) The integration of PESETA sectoral economic impacts into GEM-E3 Europe: methodology and results. Clim Chang 112: 127-142.
4. Dietz S (2011) High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change. Clim Chang 108: 519-541.
5. Dietz S, Hope C, Patmore N (2007) Some economics of 'dangerous' climate change: reflections on the stern review. Glob Environ Chang 17: 311-325.
6. EPA (2010) 'Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon', Environmental Protection Agency, United States Government.
7. Fankhauser S, Tol RSJ (2005) On climate change and economic growth. Resource Energ Econ 27: 1-17.
8. Giorgi F (2008) A simple equation for regional climate change and associated uncertainty. J Clim 21: 1589-1604.
9. Hanemann WM (2008) What is the economic cost of climate change? Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California Berkeley.
10. Higgins P, Vellinga M (2004) Ecosystem responses to abrupt climate change: teleconnections, scale and the hydrological cycle. Clim Chang 64: 127-142.
11. Hope C (2006) The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: an integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern. Integr Assess 6: 19-56.
12. Hope C (2011) 'The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description.' Working Paper Series 4/2011., Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
13. Huybrechts P, De Wolde J (1999) The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming. J Clim 12: 2169-2188.
14. Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson R, Schellnhuber HJ (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106: 5041-5046.
15. Kuhlbrodt T, Rahmstorf S, Zickfeld K, Vikebø F, Sundby S, Hofmann M, Link P, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Jaeger C (2009) An integrated assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation. Clim Chang 96: 489-537.
16. Lenton TM (2011a) 2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question. Nature 473: 7.
17. Lenton TM (2011b) Beyond 2 °C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2: 451-461.
18. Lenton TM (2012) Future climate surprises. In: McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A (eds) The future of the World's climate. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 489-507.
19. Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall J, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105: 1786-1793.
20. Lenton TM, Footitt A, Dlugolecki A (2009) 'Major Tipping Points in the Earth's Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector', Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
21. Levermann A, Bamber J, Drijfhout S, Ganopolski A, Haeberli W, Harris NRP, Huss M, Krüger K, Lenton TM, Lindsay RW, Notz D, Wadhams P, Weber S (2012) Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe: review of the current state of six "tipping elements of the climate system". Clim Chang 110: 845-878.
22. Link PM, Tol RSJ (2004) Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND. Port Econ J 3: 99-114.
23. Link P, Tol R (2011) Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND. Clim Chang 104: 287-304.
24. Lonsdale K, Downing T, Nicholls R, Parker D, Vafeidis A, Dawson R, Hall J (2008) Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise in the Thames estuary. Clim Chang 91: 145-169.
25. Mitrovica JX, Gomez N, Clark PU (2009) The Sea-level fingerprint of West Antarctic collapse. Science 323: 753.
26. New M, Liverman D, Schroder H, Anderson K (2011) Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications. Phil Trans Math Phys Eng Sci 369: 6-19.
27. Nicholls R, Tol R, Vafeidis A (2008) Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND. Clim Chang 91: 171-191.
28. Nordhaus WD (1992) An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science 258: 1315-1319.
29. Nordhaus WD (1994) Expert opinion on climatic change. Am Sci 82: 45-51.
30. Nordhaus WD, Boyer J (2000) Warming the world. Models of global warming. MIT Press, Cambridge.
31. Olsthoorn X, van der Werff P, Bouwer L, Huitema D (2008) Neo-Atlantis: the Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise. Clim Chang 91: 103-122.
32. Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (1999) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14: 53-67.
33. Pollard D, DeConto RM (2009) Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years. Nature 458: 329-332.
34. Posner RA (2004) Catastrophe: risk and response. Oxford University Press, New York.
35. Rohling EJ, Grant K, Bolshaw M, Roberts AP, Siddall M, Hemleben C, Kucera M (2009) Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the past five glacial cycles. Nat Geosci 2: 500-504.
36. Schellnhuber HJ (2009) Tipping elements in the Earth System. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106: 20561-20563.
37. Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G (2006) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
38. Schwartz P, Randall D (2003) An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security. Global Business Network, Emeryville.
39. Smith JB, Schneider SH, Oppenheimer M, Yohe GW, Hare W, Mastrandrea MD, Patwardhan A, Burton I, Corfee-Morlot J, Magadza CHD, Fussel H-M, Pittock AB, Rahman A, Suarez A, van Ypersele J-P (2009) Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern". Proc Natl Acad Sci 106: 4133-4137.
40. Solomon S, Plattner G-K, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106: 1704-1709.
41. Stern N (2006) The economics of climate change: the stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambrige.
42. Weitzman ML (2009) On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Rev Econ Stat 91: 1-19.
43. Weitzman ML (2010) 'GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages', National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 16136.
44. Wieczorek S, Ashwin P, Luke CM, Cox PM (2011) Excitability in ramped systems: the compost-bomb instability. Proc Roy Soc Math Phys Sci 467: 1243-1269.