메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 119, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 878-887

Uncertainty plus prior equals rational bias: An intuitive Bayesian probability weighting function

Author keywords

Bayes; Choice; Probability weighting; Prospect theory; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; LEARNING; PROBABILITY; PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY; STATISTICAL BIAS; STATISTICAL MODEL; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84874291670     PISSN: 0033295X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0029346     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (31)

References (36)
  • 1
    • 84970188424 scopus 로고
    • Reflections of the environment in memory
    • doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.1991.tb00174.x
    • Anderson, J. R., & Schooler, L. J. (1991). Reflections of the environment in memory. Psychological Science, 2, 396-408. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.1991.tb00174.x
    • (1991) Psychological Science , vol.2 , pp. 396-408
    • Anderson, J.R.1    Schooler, L.J.2
  • 2
    • 0031185038 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The correlational structure of natural images and the calibration of spatial representations
    • doi:10.1207/s15516709cog2103_4
    • Baddeley, R. (1997). The correlational structure of natural images and the calibration of spatial representations. Cognitive Science, 21, 351-372. doi:10.1207/s15516709cog2103_4
    • (1997) Cognitive Science , vol.21 , pp. 351-372
    • Baddeley, R.1
  • 3
    • 33846229343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generalization of color by chickens: Experimental observations and a Bayesian model
    • doi:10.1086/510142
    • Baddeley, R. J., Osorio, D., & Jones, C. D. (2007). Generalization of color by chickens: Experimental observations and a Bayesian model. The American Naturalist, 169(S1), S27-S41. doi:10.1086/510142
    • (2007) The American Naturalist , vol.169 , Issue.S1
    • Baddeley, R.J.1    Osorio, D.2    Jones, C.D.3
  • 4
    • 78650972934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spon- taneous cortical activity reveals hallmarks of an optimal internal model of the environment
    • doi:10.1126/science.1195870, January 7
    • Berkes, P., Orbán, G., Lengyel, M., & Fiser, J. (2011, January 7). Spon- taneous cortical activity reveals hallmarks of an optimal internal model of the environment. Science, 331, 83-87. doi:10.1126/science.1195870
    • (2011) Science , vol.331 , pp. 83-87
    • Berkes, P.1    Orbán, G.2    Lengyel, M.3    Fiser, J.4
  • 5
    • 0242681962 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Knightian decision theory: Part I
    • doi:10.1007/s102030200006
    • Bewley, T. F. (2002). Knightian decision theory: Part I. Decisions in Economics and Finance, 25, 79-110. doi:10.1007/s102030200006
    • (2002) Decisions in Economics and Finance , vol.25 , pp. 79-110
    • Bewley, T.F.1
  • 6
    • 79952628989 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Description- and experience- based choice: Does equivalent information equal equivalent choice?
    • Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2011a). Description- and experience- based choice: Does equivalent information equal equivalent choice? Acta Psychologica, 136, 276-284.
    • (2011) Acta Psychologica , vol.136 , pp. 276-284
    • Camilleri, A.R.1    Newell, B.R.2
  • 7
    • 79955783360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When and why rare events are underweighted: A direct comparison of the sampling, partial feedback, full feedback and description choice paradigms
    • Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2011b). When and why rare events are underweighted: A direct comparison of the sampling, partial feedback, full feedback and description choice paradigms. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 18, 377-384.
    • (2011) Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , vol.18 , pp. 377-384
    • Camilleri, A.R.1    Newell, B.R.2
  • 8
    • 84874516435 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (Discussion Papers in Economics No. 12/ 01).Retrieved from the EconPapers website
    • Conte, A., & Hey, J. D. (2012). Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity (Discussion Papers in Economics No. 12/ 01).Retrieved from the EconPapers website: http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:yor:yorken:12/01
    • (2012) Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity
    • Conte, A.1    Hey, J.D.2
  • 10
    • 84957363402 scopus 로고
    • Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms
    • doi:10.2307/1884324
    • Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms. The Quar- terly Journal of Economics, 75, 643-669. doi:10.2307/1884324
    • (1961) The Quar- terly Journal of Economics , vol.75 , pp. 643-669
    • Ellsberg, D.1
  • 11
    • 76749113376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistically optimal perception and learning: From behavior to neural representations
    • doi:10.1016/j.tics.2010.01.003
    • Fiser, J., Berkes, P., Orbán, G., & Lengyel, M. (2010). Statistically optimal perception and learning: From behavior to neural representations. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 14, 119-130. doi:10.1016/j.tics.2010.01.003
    • (2010) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.14 , pp. 119-130
    • Fiser, J.1    Berkes, P.2    Orbán, G.3    Lengyel, M.4
  • 12
    • 43049169845 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decisions from experience = sampling error + prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004)
    • Fox, C. R., & Hadar, L. (2006). Decisions from experience = sampling error + prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004). Judgment and Decision Making, 1, 159-161.
    • (2006) Judgment and Decision Making , vol.1 , pp. 159-161
    • Fox, C.R.1    Hadar, L.2
  • 13
    • 0001266334 scopus 로고
    • Maxmin expected utility with non- unique prior
    • doi: 10.1016/0304-4068(89)90018-9
    • Gilboa, I., & Schmeidler, D. (1989). Maxmin expected utility with non- unique prior. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 18, 141-153. doi: 10.1016/0304-4068(89)90018-9
    • (1989) Journal of Mathematical Economics , vol.18 , pp. 141-153
    • Gilboa, I.1    Schmeidler, D.2
  • 14
  • 15
    • 70350150248 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information asymmetry in decision from description versus decision from experience
    • Hadar, L., & Fox, C. R. (2009). Information asymmetry in decision from description versus decision from experience. Judgment and Decision Making, 4, 317-325.
    • (2009) Judgment and Decision Making , vol.4 , pp. 317-325
    • Hadar, L.1    Fox, C.R.2
  • 16
    • 0003998828 scopus 로고
    • Probability theory: The logic of science
    • Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press
    • Jaynes, E. T. (1995). Probability theory: The logic of science. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1995)
    • Jaynes, E.T.1
  • 17
    • 84855454549 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thinking, fast and slow
    • New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
    • Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
    • (2011)
    • Kahneman, D.1
  • 18
    • 0000125532 scopus 로고
    • Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
    • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
    • (1979) Econometrica , vol.47 , pp. 263-291
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 19
    • 33644553294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity
    • doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00640.x
    • Klibanoff, P., Marinacci, M., & Mukerji, S. (2005). A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity. Econometrica, 73, 1849-1892. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00640.x
    • (2005) Econometrica , vol.73 , pp. 1849-1892
    • Klibanoff, P.1    Marinacci, M.2    Mukerji, S.3
  • 21
    • 0000923828 scopus 로고
    • Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty
    • doi:10.2307/2232669
    • Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1982). Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. The Economic Journal, 92, 805-824. doi:10.2307/2232669
    • (1982) The Economic Journal , vol.92 , pp. 805-824
    • Loomes, G.1    Sugden, R.2
  • 22
    • 0004272772 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information theory, inference, and learning algorithms
    • Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press
    • MacKay, D. J. C. (2003). Information theory, inference, and learning algorithms. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2003)
    • MacKay, D.J.C.1
  • 23
    • 55849143086 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability biases as Bayesian inference
    • Martins, A. C. R. (2006). Probability biases as Bayesian inference. Judg- ment and Decision Making, 1, 108-117.
    • (2006) Judg- ment and Decision Making , vol.1 , pp. 108-117
    • Martins, A.C.R.1
  • 24
    • 0003740506 scopus 로고
    • The Pollyanna principle: Selectivity in language, memory, and thought
    • Cambridge, MA: Schenkman
    • Matlin, M. W., & Stang, D. J. (1978). The Pollyanna principle: Selectivity in language, memory, and thought. Cambridge, MA: Schenkman.
    • (1978)
    • Matlin, M.W.1    Stang, D.J.2
  • 25
    • 53849108865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The drunkard's walk: How randomness rules our lives
    • New York, NY: Pantheon
    • Mlodinow, L. (2008). The drunkard's walk: How randomness rules our lives. New York, NY: Pantheon.
    • (2008)
    • Mlodinow, L.1
  • 26
    • 84921775623 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning
    • New York, NY: Oxford University Press
    • Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2007). Bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
    • (2007)
    • Oaksford, M.1    Chater, N.2
  • 27
    • 84874513984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reasoning and decision making
    • K. Frankish & W. Ramsey (Eds.), Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cam- bridge University Press.
    • Oaksford, M., Chater, N., & Stewart, N. (2009). Reasoning and decision making. In K. Frankish & W. Ramsey (Eds.), The Cambridge handbook of cognitive science (pp. 196-215). Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cam- bridge University Press.
    • (2009) The Cambridge handbook of cognitive science , pp. 196-215
    • Oaksford, M.1    Chater, N.2    Stewart, N.3
  • 28
    • 84861449960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Bernoullis and the origin of probability theory: Looking back after 300 years
    • doi:10.1007/ BF02837935
    • Polasek, W. (2000). The Bernoullis and the origin of probability theory: Looking back after 300 years. Resonance, 5(8), 26-42. doi:10.1007/ BF02837935
    • (2000) Resonance , vol.5 , Issue.8 , pp. 26-42
    • Polasek, W.1
  • 29
    • 0001750296 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The probability weighting function
    • doi:10.2307/2998573
    • Prelec, D. (1998). The probability weighting function. Econometrica, 66, 497-527. doi:10.2307/2998573
    • (1998) Econometrica , vol.66 , pp. 497-527
    • Prelec, D.1
  • 30
    • 0002723339 scopus 로고
    • A theory of anticipated utility
    • doi:10.1016/0167-2681(82)90008-7
    • Quiggin, J. (1982). A theory of anticipated utility. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 3, 323-343. doi:10.1016/0167-2681(82)90008-7
    • (1982) Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization , vol.3 , pp. 323-343
    • Quiggin, J.1
  • 31
    • 64049103853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ambiguity and second-order belief
    • doi:10.3982/ECTA6727
    • Seo, K. (2009). Ambiguity and second-order belief. Econometrica, 77, 1575-1605. doi:10.3982/ECTA6727
    • (2009) Econometrica , vol.77 , pp. 1575-1605
    • Seo, K.1
  • 32
    • 33646581388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision by sampling
    • doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2005.10.003
    • Stewart, N., Chater, N., & Brown, G. (2006). Decision by sampling. Cognitive Psychology, 53, 1-26. doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2005.10.003
    • (2006) Cognitive Psychology , vol.53 , pp. 1-26
    • Stewart, N.1    Chater, N.2    Brown, G.3
  • 33
    • 39049108737 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of Bayes- Laplace, Jeffreys, and other priors: The case of zero events
    • doi:10.1198/000313008X267839
    • Tuyl, F., Gerlach, R., & Mengersen, K. (2008). A comparison of Bayes- Laplace, Jeffreys, and other priors: The case of zero events. The Amer- ican Statistician, 62, 40-44. doi:10.1198/000313008X267839
    • (2008) The Amer- ican Statistician , vol.62 , pp. 40-44
    • Tuyl, F.1    Gerlach, R.2    Mengersen, K.3
  • 34
    • 31744450082 scopus 로고
    • Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
    • doi:10.1007/BF00122574
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncer- tainty, 5, 297-323. doi:10.1007/BF00122574
    • (1992) Journal of Risk and Uncer- tainty , vol.5 , pp. 297-323
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 36
    • 0001126729 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Curvature of the probability weighting function
    • doi:10.1287/ mnsc.42.12.1676
    • Wu, G., & Gonzalez, R. (1996). Curvature of the probability weighting function. Management Science, 42, 1676-1690. doi:10.1287/ mnsc.42.12.1676
    • (1996) Management Science , vol.42 , pp. 1676-1690
    • Wu, G.1    Gonzalez, R.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.