Conservation planning under climate change: Accounting for adaptive potential and migration capacity in species distribution models

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 19, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 268-280

  Hamann, Andreas ^a   Aitken, Sally N ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Bioclimate envelope models; Climate change; Conservation; Genetic adaptation; Migration; Niche models

Indexed keywords

BOREAL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CONSERVATION PLANNING; CONSERVATION STATUS; GENETIC STRUCTURE; HABITAT; LANDSCAPE; MIGRATION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SPECIES DIVERSITY; TREE; UNDERPINNING;

BRITISH COLUMBIA; CANADA;

EID: 84874211499     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00945.x     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Aitken, S.N. (2000) Conserving adaptive variation in forest ecosystems. Journal of Sustainable Forestry, 10, 1-12.
2. Aitken, S.N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J.A., Wang, T.L. & Curtis-Mclane, S. (2008) Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 95-111.
3. Araujo, M.B. & New, M. (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22, 42-47.
4. Araujo, M.B. & Williams, P.H. (2000) Selecting areas for species persistence using occurrence data. Biological Conservation, 96, 331-345.
5. Araujo, M.B., Williams, P.H. & Fuller, R.J. (2002) Dynamics of extinction and the selection of nature reserves. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 269, 1971-1980.
6. Araujo, M.B., Cabeza, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, L. & Williams, P.H. (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biology, 10, 1618-1626.
7. Austin, M. (2007) Species distribution models and ecological theory: a critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecological Modelling, 200, 1-19.
8. Botkin, D.B., Saxe, H., Araujo, M.B., Betts, R., Bradshaw, R.H.W., Cedhagen, T., Chesson, P., Dawson, T.P., Etterson, J.R., Faith, D.P., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hansen, A.S., Hilbert, D.W., Loehle, C., Margules, C., New, M., Sobel, M.J. & Stockwell, D.R.B. (2007) Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. BioScience, 57, 227-236.
9. Cabeza, M. & Moilanen, A. (2001) Design of reserve networks and the persistence of biodiversity. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 16, 242-248.
10. Chen, P., Welsh, C. & Hamann, A. (2010) Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas-fir to inter-annual climate variability and projected climate change. Global Change Biology, 16, 3374-3385.
11. Chourmouzis, C., Yanchuk, A.D., Hamann, A., Smets, P. & Aitken, S.N. (2009). Forest tree genetic conservation status report 1: In situ conservation status of all indigenous British Columbia species. B.C. Min. For. Range, Victoria, B.C. Tech. Rep. 53. ISBN: 978-0-7726-6181-4.
12. Daly, C., Halbleib, M., Smith, J.I., Gibson, W.P., Doggett, M.K., Taylor, G.H., Curtis, J. & Pasteris, P.P. (2008) Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 2031-2064.
13. Davis, M.B. & Shaw, R.G. (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science, 292, 673-679.
14. Dormann, C.F. (2007) Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology, 8, 387-397.
15. EPA (2007) Ecoregion Maps and GIS Resources. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR, Western Ecology Division official website, Available at: http://www.epa.gov/wed (accessed 10 May 2008).
16. Fuller, T., Morton, D.P. & Sarkar, S. (2008) Incorporating uncertainty about species' potential distributions under climate change into the selection of conservation areas with a case study from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Biological Conservation, 141, 1547-1559.
17. Gray, L.K. & Hamann, A. (2011) Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada. PLoS ONE, 6, e22977.
18. Gray, L.K., Gylander, T., Mbogga, M.S., Chen, P.Y. & Hamann, A. (2011) Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada. Ecological Applications, 21, 1591-1603.
19. Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
20. Guisan, A., Lehmann, A., Ferrier, S., Austin, M., Overton, J.M.C., Aspinall, R. & Hastie, T. (2006) Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 386-392.
21. Hamann, A. & Wang, T.L. (2005) Models of climatic normals for genecology and climate change studies in British Columbia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 128, 211-221.
22. Hamann, A. & Wang, T.L. (2006) Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia. Ecology, 87, 2773-2786.
23. Hamann, A., Aitken, S.N. & Yanchuk, A.D. (2004) Cataloguing in situ protection of genetic resources for major commercial forest trees in British Columbia. Forest Ecology and Management, 197, 295-305.
24. Hamann, A., Smets, P., Yanchuk, A.D. & Aitken, S.N. (2005) An ecogeographic framework for in situ conservation of forest trees in British Columbia. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 35, 2553-2561.
25. Hamann, A., Gylander, T. & Chen, P. (2011) Developing seed zones and transfer guidelines with multivariate regression trees. Tree Genetics and Genomes, 7, 399-408.
26. Hampe, A. (2004) Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 469-471.
27. Hamrick, J.L. (2004) Response of forest trees to global environmental changes. Forest Ecology and Management, 197, 323-335.
28. Hannah, L., Midgley, G., Hughes, G. & Bomhard, B. (2005) The view from the cape. Extinction risk, protected areas, and climate change. BioScience, 55, 231-242.
29. Hannah, L., Midgley, G., Andelman, S., Araujo, M., Hughes, G., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R. & Williams, P. (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 5, 131-138.
30. Hole, D.G., Willis, S.G., Pain, D.J., Fishpool, L.D., Butchart, S.H.M., Collingham, Y.C., Rahbek, C. & Huntley, B. (2009) Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. Ecology Letters, 12, 420-431.
31. Iverson, L.R. & Prasad, A.M. (1998) Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs, 68, 465-485.
32. Jackson, S.T. & Overpeck, J.T. (2000) Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary. Paleobiology, 26, 194-220.
33. Jeschke, J.M. & Strayer, D.L. (2008) Usefulness of bioclimatic models for studying climate change and invasive species. Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology 2008. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1134, 1-24.
34. Keir, K.R., Bemmels, J.B. & Aitken, S, N. (2011) Low genetic diversity, moderate local adaptation, and phylogeographic insights in Cornus nuttallii (Cornaceae). American Journal of Botany, 98, 1327-1336.
35. Klein, C., Wilson, K., Watts, M., Stein, J., Berry, S., Carwardine, J., Smith, M.S., Mackey, B. & Possingham, H. (2009) Incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes into continental-scale conservation planning. Ecological Applications, 19, 206-217.
36. Kuparinen, A., Savolainan, O. & Schurr, F.M. (2010) Increased mortality can promote evolutionary adaptation of forest trees to climate change. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 1003-1008.
37. Ledig, F.T. & Kitzmiller, J.H. (1992) Genetic Strategies for Reforestation in the Face of Global Climate Change. Forest Ecology and Management, 50, 153-169.
38. Loarie, S.R., Carter, B.E., Hayhoe, K., Mcmahon, S., Moe, R., Knight, C.A. & Ackerly, D.D. (2008) Climate Change and the Future of California's Endemic Flora. PLoS ONE, 3, e2502.
39. Mackey, B.G., Berry, S.L. & Brown, T. (2008) Reconciling approaches to biogeographical regionalization: a systematic and generic framework examined with a case study of the Australian continent. Journal of Biogeography, 35, 213-229.
40. Marris, E. (2009) Planting the forest of the future. Nature, 459, 906-908.
41. Mbogga, M.S., Hamann, A. & Wang, T. (2009) Historical and projected climate data for natural resource management in western Canada. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 881-890.
42. Mbogga, M.S., Wang, X. & Hamann, A. (2010) Bioclimate envelope modeling for natural resource management: dealing with uncertainty. Journal of Applied Ecology, 47, 731-740.
43. McKenney, D., Pedlar, J. & O'Neill, G. (2009) Climate change and forest seed zones: past trends, future prospects and challenges to ponder. Forestry Chronicle, 85, 258-266.
44. Meidinger, D.V. & Pojar, J. (1991) Ecosystems of British Columbia., edn. Special Report Series, No. 6. Research Branch, Ministry of Forests, Victoria, B.C.
45. Millar, C.I., Stephenson, N.L. & Stephens, S.L. (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications, 17, 2145-2151.
46. O'Neill, G.A., Hamann, A. & Wang, T.L. (2008) Accounting for population variation improves estimates of the impact of climate change on species' growth and distribution. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45, 1040-1049.
47. Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
48. Peterson, A.T., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Bartley, J., Sanchez-Cordero, V., Soberon, J., Buddemeier, R.H. & Stockwell, D.R.B. (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature, 416, 626-629.
49. Rehfeldt, G.E. (1994) Genetic structure of western red cedar populations in the Interior West. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 24, 670-680.
50. Roberts, D.R. & Hamann, A. (2012) Method selection for species distribution modelling: are temporally or spatially independent evaluations necessary? Ecography. DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07147.x. (in press).
51. Rodrigues, A.S.L., Gregory, R.D. & Gaston, K.J. (2000) Robustness of reserve selection procedures under temporal species turnover. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 267, 49-55.
52. Rose, N.A. & Burton, P.J. (2009) Using bioclimatic envelopes to identify temporal corridors in support of conservation planning in a changing climate. Forest Ecology and Management, 258, S64-S74.
53. Selby, C.J. & Santry, M.J. (1996) A national ecological framework for canada: data model, database and programs. Centre for Land and Biological Resources Research, Research Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and State of the Environment Directorate, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ont.
54. Sinclair, S.J., White, M.D. & Newell, G.R. (2010) How useful are species distribution models for managing biodiversity under future climates? Ecology and Society, 1, 5.
55. Tchebakova, N.M., Rehfeldt, G.E. & Parfenova, E.I. (2009) From vegetation zones to climatypes: effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems. Permafrost ecosystems: Siberian larch forests, ecological studies, 209 (ed. by A. Osawa ), pp. 427-446. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Germany. DOI 10.1007/978-1-4020-9693-8_22
56. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., De Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., Van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. & Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.
57. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araujo, M.B., Sykes, M.T. & Prentice, I.C. (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 8245-8250.
58. Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araujo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Cabeza, M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgely, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M., Sykes, M.T. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 9, 137-152.
59. Turesson, G. (1925) The plant species in relation to habitat and climate. Contributions to the knowledge of genecological units. Hereditas, 6, 147-236.
60. Wang, T., Hamann, A., Spittlehouse, D.L. & Aitken, S.N. (2006) Development of scale-free climate data for western Canada for use in resource management. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 383-397.
61. Wang, T.L., O'Neill, G.A. & Aitken, S.N. (2010) Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate. Ecological Applications, 20, 153-163.
62. Westfall, R.D. & Millar, C.I. (2004) Genetic consequences of forest population dynamics influenced by historic climatic variability in the western USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 197, 159-170.
63. Yanchuk, A.D. (2001) A quantitative framework for breeding and conservation of forest tree genetic resources in British Columbia. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere, 31, 566-576.
64. Ying, C.C. & Yanchuk, A.D. (2006) The development of British Columbia's tree seed transfer guidelines: purpose, concept, methodology, and implementation. Forest Ecology and Management, 227, 1-13.