Envisioning structural transformation - lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 80, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 453-466

  Schirrmeister, Elna ^a   Warnke, Philine ^a  

^a FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SYSTEMS AND INNOVATION RESEARCH ISI   (Germany)

Author keywords

Foresight methodology; Inductive approach; Innovation pattern; Scenarios; Structural transformation; Vision; Visualisation; Weak signals

Indexed keywords

FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY; INDUCTIVE APPROACH; INNOVATION PATTERNS; SCENARIOS; STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION; WEAK SIGNALS;

INNOVATION; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING; VISION; VISUALIZATION;

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT;

INNOVATION; KNOWLEDGE; STRUCTURAL CHANGE;

EID: 84873998352     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.008     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Da Costa O., Warnke P., Cagnin C., Scapolo F. The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 2008, 20(3):369-387.
2. Miller R. Futures literacy: a hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures 2007, 39(4):341-362.
3. European Commission Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions-Europe 2020 2010, Flagship Initiative Innovation Union, Brussels.
4. Warnke P. Implementing transformative innovation policy priorities. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 2011, Book of Abstracts, Sevilla. JRC-IPTS (Ed.).
5. Joly P.-B., Rip A., Callon M. Re-inventing innovation. Governance of Innovation: Firms, Clusters and Institutions in a Changing Setting, Elgar, Cheltenham 2010, 19-32. M.J. Arentsen, W. Van Rossum, A.E. Steenge (Eds.).
6. Steward F. Breaking the boundaries. Transformative Innovation for the Global Good 2008, NESTA.
7. de Haan J., Rotmans J. Patterns in transitions: understanding complex chains of change. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78(1):90-102.
8. Bleischwitz R., Bahn-Walkowiak B., Irrek W., Schepelmann P., Schmidt-Bleek F., et al. Eco-innovation - Putting the EU on the Path to a Resource and Energy Efficient Economy 2009.
9. Tidd J., Bessant J., Pavitt K. Managing Innovation: Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change 2005, Wiley, Chichester; Weinheim [u.a.].
10. Rothwell R. Successful industrial innovation: critical success factors for the 1990's. R&D Manag. 1992, 22(3):221-239.
11. Kim W.C., Mauborgne R. Strategy, value innovation, and the knowledge economy. MIT Sloan Manag. Rev. September-October 1999, 78:129-141.
12. Miles I. Innovation in Services 2005, Oxford University Press, New York.
13. Mulgan G., Ali R., Halkett R., Sanders B. In and out of sync. The Challenge of Growing Social Innovations, NESTA Research Report 2007.
14. Chesbrough H.W. Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology 2006, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Mass.
15. Reichwald R., Piller F. Interaktive Wertschöpfung: open innovation. Individualisierung und neue Formen der Arbeitsteilung, Gabler, Wiesbaden 2006.
16. Dönitz E., Jégou F., Leitner K.-H., Mahn J., Pitisci G., Rhomberg W., Saldern von S., Warnke P., Watkins V. Structured and documented collection of current signals for arising changes in innovation patterns (deliverable D 1.1) http://www.innovation-futures.org.
17. Mietzner D. Strategische Vorausschau und Szenarioanalysen: Methodenevaluation und neue Ansätze, Gabler, Wiesbaden 2009.
18. van Asselt M.B.A., van't Klooster S.A., van Notten P.W.F., Smits L.A. Foresight in Action: Developing Policy-oriented Scenarios 2010, Earthscan Publ. Ltd., London u.a.
19. Liebl F. Rethinking trends - and how to link them to scenarios. Paper Presented at SMS-Conference, San Francisco 2001.
20. Hiltunen E. Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change?. J. Futur. Stud. 2006, 11(2):61-74.
21. Postma T., Liebl F. How to improve scenario analysis as strategic management tool?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2005, 72:161-173.
22. Hiltunen E. The future sign and its three dimensions. Futures 2008, 40(3):247-260.
23. Jégou F., Leitner K.-H., Mahn J., Mueller M., Pitisci G., Rhomberg W., Schirrmeister E., Warnke P., Watkins V. Final set of 20 amplified and contrasted visions (deliverable D 2.3) http://www.innovation-futures.org.
24. Schirrmeister E., Warnke P., Leitner K.-H. Innovation futures scripts - nodes of change in innovation patterns emerging from the explorative dialogue on the 19 INFU visions (deliverable D 3.1) http://www.innovation-futures.org.
25. Jégou F., Libermann J. Participatory scenario building. Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life 2003, 246-255. E. Manzini, F. Jégou (Eds.).
26. Jégou F., Vincent S. Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments. Designing User Friendly Augmented Work Environments - From Meeting Rooms to Digital Collaborative Spaces 2009, Springer Verlag, London. S. Lahlou (Ed.).
27. Warnke P., Schirrmeister E. Transitionspfade der Nutzerintegration - Erkenntnisse aus einem Vorausschau Prozess, Vorausschau und Technologieplanung 2008, 321-340. W. V. Westfalia Druck GmbH, Paderborn.
28. Dönitz E., Möhrle M.G. Consistency matrices within scenario technique: an empirical investigation. Operations Research Proceedings 2005 2005, 741-746. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. H.-D. Haasis, H. Kopfer, J. Schönberger (Eds.).
29. Warnke P., Schirrmeister E. INFU scenario assessment report (deliverable D 5.1) http://www.innovation-futures.org.
30. Leitner K.-H., Rhomberg W., Warnke P., Schirrmeister E., Kasztler A. INFU Policy Strategy Report 2012.
31. Holopainen M., Toivonen M. Weak Signals: Ansoff Today. Futures 2012, 44:198-205.
32. Ralston B., Ralston W. The Scenario-planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times 2006, Thomson South-Western, Mason, Ohio.
33. Buur J., Matthews B. Participatory innovation. Int. J. Innov. Manag. 2008, 12(3):255-273.
34. Grin J., Rotmans J., Schot J. Transitions to sustainable development. New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change 2010, Routledge, New York/London.
35. Weber K.M., Rohracher H. Legitimizing research, technology and innovation policies for transformative change: combining insights from innovation systems and multi-level perspective in a comprehensive 'failures' framework. Research Policy 2012, 41:1037-1042.