THE circe simulations: Regional climate change projections with realistic representation of the mediterranean sea

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 94, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 65-81

  Gualdi, Silvio ^a   Somot, S ^b   Li, L ^c   Artale, V ^d   Adani, M ^a   Bellucci, A ^e   Braun, A ^b   Calmanti, S ^d   Carillo, A ^d   Dell'Aquila, A ^d   Deque M ^b   Dubois, C ^b   Elizalde, A ^f   Harzallah, A ^g   Jacob, D ^f   L'Heveder B ^c   May, W ^h   Oddo, P ^a   Ruti, P ^d   Sanna, A ^e   Sannino, G ^d   Scoccimarro, E ^a   Sevault, F ^b   Navarra, A ^a   more..

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

^b CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

^c CNRS   (France)

^d ENEA   (Italy)

^e CENTRO EURO MEDITERRANEO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI   (Italy)

^f MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^g INSTITUT NATIONAL DES SCIENCES ET TECHNOLOGIES DE LA MER   (Tunisia)

^h DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Denmark)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING; CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS; EUROPEAN UNION; GLOBAL MODELS; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; MEDITERRANEAN SEA; POSSIBLE FUTURES; REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES; SCENARIO SIMULATIONS;

EXTRATERRESTRIAL ATMOSPHERES; METEOROLOGY;

GLOBAL WARMING;

EID: 84873480673     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00136.1     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Adani, M., S. Dobricic, and N. Pinardi, 2011: Quality assessment of a 1985-2007 Mediterranean Sea reanalysis. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 28, 569-589.
2. Artale, V., and Coauthors, 2010: An atmosphere-ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: Assessment of a present-climate simulation. Climate Dyn., 35, 721-740.
3. Beuvier, J., and Coauthors, 2010: Modeling the Mediterranean Sea interannual variability over the last 40 years: Focus on the EMT. J. Geophys. Res., 115, C08017, doi:10.1029/2009JC005950.
4. Calafat, F. M., D. Gomis, and M. Marcos, 2009: Comparison of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1961-2000 as given by a data reconstruction and a 3D model. Global Planet. Change, 68, 175-184.
5. Christensen, J. H., T. R. Carter, M. Rummukainen, and G. Amanatidis, 2007: Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: The PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change, 81, 1-6.
6. - , M. Rummukainen, and G. Lenderink, 2009: Formulation of very-high-resolution regional climate model ensembles for Europe. ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts at seasonal, decadal and centennial timescales, P. van der Linden and J. F. B. Mitchell, Eds., Met Office Hadley Centre Rep., 47-58.
7. Dell'Aquila, A., S. Calmanti, P. M. Ruti, M. V. Struglia, G. Pisacane, A. Carillo, and G. Sannino, 2011: Impacts of seasonal cycle f luctuations over the Euro-Mediterranean area using a regional oceanatmosphere coupled model. Climate Res., 52, 135-157, doi:10.3354/cr01037.
8. Déqué, M., and Coauthors, 2007: An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: Assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change, 81 (Suppl.), 53-70.
9. Drobinski P., and V. Ducrocq, 2008: HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment: Towards a major field experiment in 2010-2020. White Book. [Available online at www.hymex.org/public /documents/WB-1.3.2.pdf.]
10. Dubois, C., and Coauthors, 2012: Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models. Climate Dyn., 39, 1859-1884, doi:10.1007/s00382- 011-1261-4.
11. Elizalde, A., 2011: The water cycle in the Mediterranean region and the impacts of climate change. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Rep. on Earth System Science 103, 128 pp.
12. - , D. Sein, U. Mikolajewick, and D. Jacob, 2010: Technical report: Atmosphere-ocean-hydrology coupled regional climate model. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Tech. Rep., 5 pp. [Available online at www.remo-rcm.de/ fileadmin/user-upload/remo /UBA/pdf/TechnicalReport.pdf.]
13. Gao, X. J., J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, 2006: Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024954.
14. Gibelin, A. L., and M. Déqué, 2003: Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model. Climate Dyn., 20, 327-339.
15. Giorgetta, M. A., G. P. Brasseur, E. Roeckner, and J. Marotzke, 2006: Preface to special section on climate models at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. J. Climate, 19, 3769-3770.
16. Giorgi, F., 2006: Climate change hot-spots. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025734.
17. - , and P. Lionello, 2008: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global Planet. Change, 63, 90-104.
18. Glecker, P. J., K. E. Taylor, and C. Doutriaux, 2008: Performance metrics for climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06104, doi:10.1029/2007JD008972.
19. Gualdi, S., and Coauthors, 2012: Future climate projections. Regional Assessment of the Climate Change in the Mediterranean: Air, Sea and Precipitation and Water, A. Navarra and L. Tubiana, Eds., Advances in Global Change Research, Vol. 50, Springer Verlag, 125.
20. Hagemann, S., and D. Jacob, 2007: Gradient in the climate change signal of European discharge predicted by a multi-model ensemble. Climatic Change, 81 (Suppl.), 309-327.
21. Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
22. Hourdin, F., and Coauthors, 2006: The LMDZ4 general circulation model: Climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Climate Dyn., 27, 787-813.
23. Levitus, S., 1982: Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean. NOAA Prof. Paper 13, 173 pp. and 17 microfiche.
24. López-Moreno, J. I., M. Beniston, and J. M. García-Ruiz, 2008: Environmental change and water management in the Pyrenees: Facts and future perspectives for Mediterranean mountains. Global Planet. Change, 61, 300-312.
25. Ludwig, W., E. Dumont, M. Meybeck, and S. Heussner, 2009: River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean Sea: Major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades? Prog. Oceanogr., 80, 199-217.
26. Marcos, M., and M. N. Tsimplis, 2008: Comparison of results of AOGCMs in the Mediterranean Sea during the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C12028, doi:10.1029/2008JC004820.
27. Mariotti, A., and Coauthors, 2008: Mediterranean water cycle changes: Transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations. Environ. Res. Lett., 3, 044001, doi:10.1088/1748- 9326/3/4/044001.
28. MEDAR Group, 2002: MEDATLAS 2002 Database: Cruise Inventory, Observed and Analyzed Data of Temperature and Bio-Chemical Parameters. IFREMER, 4 CD-ROMs.
29. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. A. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394.
30. Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712.
31. Nakićenović, N., and R. Swart, Eds., 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, 599 pp.
32. Oddo, P., M. Adani, N. Pinardi, C. Fratianni, M. Tonani, and D. Pettenuzzo, 2009: A nested Atlantic- Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting. Ocean Sci., 5, 461-473.
33. Oki, T., and Y. C. Sud, 1998: Design of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) - A global river channel network. Earth Interact., 2. [Available online at http://EarthInteractions.org.]
34. Pettenuzzo D., W. Large and N. Pinardi, 2010: On the corrections of ERA-40 surface flux products consistent with the Mediterranean heat and water budgets and the connection between basin surface total heat flux and NAO. J. Geophys. Res., 115, C06022, doi:10.1029/2009JC005631.
35. Pincus, R., C. P. Batstone, R. J. P. Hofmann, K. E. Taylor, and P. J. Glecker, 2008: Evaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D14209, doi:10.1029/2007JD009334.
36. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
37. Ruti, P., and Coauthors, 2011: MED-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Abstract EGU2011-10715. [Available online at http://meet ingorganizer.copernicus.org/ EGU2011 /EGU2011-10715.pdf.]
38. Sanchez-Gomez, E., S. Somot, and A. Mariotti, 2009: Future changes in the Mediterranean water budget projected by an ensemble of regional climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21401, doi:10.1029/2009GL040120.
39. - , - , S. A. Josey, C. Dubois, N. Elguindi, and M. Déqué, 2011: Evaluation of the Mediterranean Sea water and heat budgets as simulated by an ensemble of high resolution regional climate models. Climate Dyn., 37, 2067-2086, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1012-6.
40. Sannino, G., M. Herrmann, A. Carillo, V. Rupolo, V. Ruggiero, V. Artale, and P. Heimbach, 2009a: An eddy-permitting model of the Mediterranean Sea with a two-way grid refinement at the Strait of Gibraltar. Ocean Modell., 30, 56-72, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.06.002.
41. - , L. Pratt, and A. Carillo, 2009b: Hydraulic criticality of the exchange flow through the Strait of Gibraltar. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 39, 2779-2799.
42. Scoccimarro, E., and Coauthors, 2011: Effects of tropical cyclones on ocean heat transport in a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J. Climate, 24, 4368-4384.
43. Somot, S., F. Sevault, and M. Déqué, 2006: Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. Climate Dyn., 27, 851-879.
44. - , - , - , and M. Crépon, 2008: 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model. Global Planet. Change, 63, 112-126.
45. Taylor, K. E., 2001: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D7), 7183-7192.
46. Thorpe, R., and G. Bigg, 2000: Modelling the sensitivity of the mediterranean outflow to anthropogenically forced climate change. Climate Dyn., 16, 355-368.
47. Tsimplis, M., M. Marcos, and S. Somot, 2008: 21st century Mediterranean sea level rise: Steric and atmospheric pressure contributions from a regional model. Global Planet. Change, 63, 105-111, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.006.
48. Ulbrich, U., and Coauthors, 2012: Past and current climate changes in the Mediterranean region. Regional Assessment of the Climate Change in the Mediterranean: Air, Sea and Precipitation and Water, A. Navarra and L. Tubiana, Eds., Advances in Global Change Research, Vol. 50, Springer Verlag, 125.
49. Valcke, S., 2006: OASIS3 user guide (prism-2-5). CERFACS Tech. Rep. TR/CMGC/06/73, PRISM Rep. 3, 60 pp.
50. Van Leer, B., 1979: Towards the ultimate conservative difference scheme. V. A second-order sequel to Godunov's method. J. Comput. Phys., 32, 101-136.
51. Zou, L., Z. Tianjun, L. Li, and Z. Jie, 2010: East China summer rainfall variability of 1958-2000: Dynamical downscaling with a variable-resolution AGCM. J. Climate, 23, 6394-6408.